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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 21:12

So, looking like:
those who cannot walk do not get A&E treatment;
in 2019 there will be no treatment anyway, especially if you need radiotherapy. (euratom)
'Well', as they say on the Law and Policy thread.

Holliewantstobehot · 13/10/2017 21:15

I'll be praying then. Praying hard.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 21:21

And I'll just say 'Well'. For everyone.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:22

So glad I emigrated ....
Hopefully the govt dithering would delay any no-deal Brexit until most current Brit expats can stay,
or the EU Parliament will come to our rescue

I expect bugger all help from the UK govt, so I wish they'd stop lying that playing hardball over E27 expats is for our benefit

  • they are just bargaining chips to extract trade concessions for the UK.
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:24

A few hundred thousand Uk pensioners returning to the UK won't help a struggling NHS

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:27

I would LOVE to know the stats on leave/remain for expats...

prettybird · 13/10/2017 21:28

I followed that process when I "wasn't feeling well" shortly after having ds. NHS24 eventually - once I'd struggled to talk over the phone as I was doubled up in pain - sent me to the local out-of-hours GP centre - and from there to the A&E beside it.

I ended up on heavy IV duty antibiotics for a week with pastuerella, having been close to septicaemia. Shock In hindsight, I realise how lucky I was.

I should really have taken myself (or dh taken me) to A&E when I fits started feeling so bad.

I foresee that the entirely foreseeable unintended consequence of this would be greatly increased reliance on 999. Hmm

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 21:32

When dd ended up in hospital recently, we had been sent direct to a&e by our gp. They proceeded to triage us and 3 hrs later we saw the gp they have there who mops up cases they don't think should come to a&e. Confused

Thankfully she pretty much lost her crap about that, and got the correct team down to assess her.

Dd wasn't the only person I know who went through this,

So the system currently exists and doesn't work. Someone will die, and die very rapidly.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:32

Even the Brexiter ERG has a hardcore group Hmm - Redwood & co -
who are unhappy that the others have conceded a 2-year transition before looting can begin

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/future-looks-bleak-spreadsheet-philip-hammond/

< don't look if you're squeamish - a Gove photo >

Downing Street has done well to hold the party together since last June,
but it has done so in part by dodging the end state question.

May knows her premiership hangs on the support of Brexiteer MPs,
who threaten letters calling for her resignation if she chooses Hammond’s route.

As one hardliner says:
“She hasn’t sold out yet. As soon as she does, my letter goes in.”
< That's a letter to the 1922 committee, calling for her resignation - 48 required for a vote >

The skirmishes between the Chancellor and his Leave Cabinet colleagues this week are just a teaser of what is to come.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:35

That hardcore group is the wing-nuts' wing-nuts
Provisional wing of the ERG ?

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 21:36

just a teaser of what is to come.
Tends to get a bit messy when tories have a dethroning.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:37

My county has the worst performing ambulance service in the UK

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:37

a ‘coalition of the sane’ to stave off Brexit calamity ?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/13/theresa-may-coalition-of-the-sane-brexit-tories

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:38

How long did Thatchers de throning take?

Mistigri · 13/10/2017 21:40

I would LOVE to know the stats on leave/remain for expats...

A lot of them couldn't vote, of course, and the vagaries of the postal voting system meant that not all who theoretically could vote were actually able to do so.

My impression is that leave voting among expats was confined mainly to the types who live in English speaking enclaves in Spain, and older wealthy second home owners (who aren't really expats even if they spend 6 months of the year abroad). I don't personally know any leave voting expats, although admittedly I tend to avoid Brit expats where possible as they are often nut jobs (but not, as far as I can tell, leave-voting nut jobs. Most of them know which side their bread is buttered on).

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:41

woman The Tory^ party is forming a circular firing squad^ Grin
< I have a Lindt cellar >

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 21:51

the worst performing ambulance service in the UK

Sorry to hear that Badders

Mine has some of some of the best ambulance workers. I can testify from dash to local hospital, with little one when local ambulance worker helped/ saved DS literally in seconds, many years ago

I was so pleased when same ambulance worker gave a talk to them as secondary school kids, about 'legal high' drugs. A hero.

Gawd bless 'em all.

bigchoc Merkel in government, tory feminist as she is,(despite my marxist leanings) would lure me to Germany in an instant, and a wee side order of apple cake would do nicely!

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:53

My mum had a suspected heart attack.. .
Still took 45 mins for an ambulance to get to get despite the paramedics increasingly desperate phone calls....

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:55

...always worrying when a paramedic asks if you have 1st aid training.....😔

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 21:59

45 minutes Shock That is awful Badders Flowers
Looks like we mums are on ambulance call as well as every fucking thing else now. < looks to revise first aid course from last year>
I can barely bake............. I know it's not exactly linked, but I'm always scared to use first aid in real life. Confused

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 22:01

I've given cpr
Sadly unsuccessfully
😔

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 22:03

I don't bother with 111 anymore
Urgent care centre 20 min drive away
Hospital ditto (if I put my foot down)

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 22:03

badders Flowers your poor dm

A few years back my dm badly broke her thigh bone. Obviously she wasn't top priority but she wasn't able to move off the doorstep where it happened and was alone, though had her mobile on her at least which was a rare occurrence back then. They took over 4 hours to come, it was a hot sunny day. She was sunburnt to crap before a family member could get to her.

An old lady fell in town the other day, when the sun started glaring down I made a point of standing there and blocking it until the ambulance came. Strange little action in the scheme of things, but no one really thinks of that.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 22:03

badders Flowers your poor dm

A few years back my dm badly broke her thigh bone. Obviously she wasn't top priority but she wasn't able to move off the doorstep where it happened and was alone, though had her mobile on her at least which was a rare occurrence back then. They took over 4 hours to come, it was a hot sunny day. She was sunburnt to crap before a family member could get to her.

An old lady fell in town the other day, when the sun started glaring down I made a point of standing there and blocking it until the ambulance came. Strange little action in the scheme of things, but no one really thinks of that.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 22:03

...but if I didn't or couldnt drive (for any reason)??

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