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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Peregrina · 13/10/2017 19:27

Leaky roofs are not new. The school built adjacent to mine, which was supposed to be the Sec Mod, but came into use as the lower part of the school as a Comprehensive, sprung a leak. This was the day the Peak Planning Board announced that it had won an architectural prize. I always thought that funny.

OlennasWimple · 13/10/2017 19:38

We had portakabins in my 1990s secondary school. They were temporary buildings, thrown up to accomodate the baby boomers post war, I think.... I visited the school recently - most of the huts are still there (though they are at least currently building a new block which should see the end of the temporary accommodation at long last....)

I worked with TM back in the day and know people who do so now. It's not so much that she doesn't like different opinions, it's that she doesn't like in person discussions. She would always prefer to make decisions based on paper briefings, which is just about manageable when you are Home Sec, but impossible to do when you are PM. Hill and Timothy used to do the discussing for her, in effect. They would speak to people about the pros and cons of a particular approach, and then they would discuss stuff with her.

It's not true that she doesn't change her mind (and she used to be slightly infamously indecisive: "Theresa May... Or She May Not"), but I can see how it must feel virtually impossible to have a quick, discreet word with her about an issue - which Cabinet Minister has time to write to her?? - and she doesn't fare well in big group discussions. Like Parliament, Cabinet, or indeed formal negotiations...

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 19:47

Suddenly Conservatives are more pessimistic.
Finally. Smile time to rethink, maybe.
Thanks for those analyses, red was trying to work out how they plot in or not to last night's council elections.
They are not daft, I am hoping.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 19:56

I learnt pounds-shillings-pence and gallons etc in 1960s primary school

That wasn't in portacabins, but my final village primary had very old dilapidated buildings, leaky roofs and with outside loos some distance away - great fun in the rain - leaky pipes there too, very damp, smelly, no heating.

My mum taught me up to my 12 times tables before I went to school - because of the 12 d =1 shilling in the old lsd

I started grammar school before decimal currency, but we already used only metric Si units for science

Even a few years ago though, when working with a US multinational on a large project, we had to keep converting to imperial units for force, stress, density, material properties etc.
That was very time-consuming and so much more complicated than metric to use - the US company eventually changed over, because the entire rest of the world was metric and they had to keep converting for all regulatory documentation, suppliers etc

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 19:59

Well they really wont like that 25-49 band.

Where there is less movement in the figures there still seems to be doubt creeping in. Slippage from being positive into the don't know or will stay the same column.

Certainly brexiteers aren't selling the dream particularly well. And the vision isnt quite as confident as at it was either.

Not happening significantly nor quickly enough though really.

Will see what the next month or so brings...

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 20:00

the US company eventually changed over, because the entire rest of the world was metric and they had to keep converting for all regulatory documentation, suppliers etc

What they had no soveignity over this?

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 20:00

I remember watching the Aberfan disaster on the TV when I was a little girl and I can still remember the horror in the voice of the reporter as he told of a little child having his leg deliberately broken, to be able to get him out.
My dad said "Oh god no" and turned the TV off.

I think that disaster spurred safety checks on schools, which hardly existed before - I don't want a bonfire of red tape, to return to those days

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 20:03

What bits of red tape do Leavers want to abolish ?

  • if it's just bendy bananas, that was just a media scam, possibly another Boris lie
if it's removing health & safety checks, workers' rights, rights to nhs treatment, clean beaches without sewage, clean air .... then Brexiters should state this
RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 20:08

Faisal islam @ faisalislam
New #Brexitforensics report on Nuclear industry and Euratom withdrawal on @skynews now... Thread:

  1. Parts of industry activate continuity plans to relocate nuclear material/ parts, anticipating failure to replace euratom deals by 2019
  2. Tory rebellion on Euratom as ex minister Vaizey and Rachel Reeves table EU Withdrawal Bill amendment to delay Euratom exit without plan
  3. UK Atomic Energy Authority chief Professor Chapman tells us that Euratom exit is an "existential threat" to his fusion research facility
  4. Big concern re Euratom deals w/ US, Japan by Mar 2019 "clock is ticking and we’ve made very little progress so far," NIAs @tomjgreatrex
  5. biggest nuclear generator warned Lords failure to replace all deals cd lead to "extended outages" at its power plants from lack of parts
  6. To Lords, top Brexit official at Office of Nuclear Regulation (which will take on EU safeguarding powers): timetable "highly challenging"
  7. In its half year results, partly state-owned uranium enrichment company warns of "significant risks" from Euratom withdrawal
  8. Industry sources yet to see coherent plan as what happens at nuclear legal cliff edge/not told if Florence transition applies to Euratom
  9. "The British people did not vote to leave Euratom", Le Point reports outgoing EDF energy chief telling David Davis at Chevening in July
10. Cross Party amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill tabled by ex Tory minister Ed Vaizey and BEIS COmmittee chair Rachel Reeves

news.sky.com/story/amp/nuclear-industry-acts-on-no-deal-brexit-as-mps-plot-euratom-rebellion-11078272

Faisal's thread has copies of relevant documents for further ref, but im currently sat in a carpark waiting for my drunken husband to find his way off the tram which apparently has stopped a sration early due to a points failure

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Badders08 · 13/10/2017 20:08

Of course that's what right wing brexiters want.....thats always been their plan

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 20:08

They want to abolish pigs ears BigChoc...

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OlennasWimple · 13/10/2017 20:10

I currently live somewhere with far far laxer H&S rules and regs. It is awful. I hate seeing builders on roofs with no scaffolding, helmets or safety gear. I hate that our house doesn't have smoke detectors. I have to be extremely picky about the food I buy, as the lack of labelling means that it really could be anything.

The UK does not want to take its lead from places like this (which are trying to up their game and introduce things like regular hygiene inspections to restaurants and bars, not dismiss calls for it as unnecessary fettering of free enterprise)

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 20:12

Ah yes
Brexit food....chlorinated chicken and food from fukashima....only for us plebs though!

squishysquirmy · 13/10/2017 20:16

Whenever anyone in politics or high up in business starts talking about "red tape," I always assume they mean HS&E regs and workers rights. When people in less powerful positions mention "redtape", I give them the benefit of the doubt until they clarify what they mean - normally it transpires that someone told them off at work once for standing precariously on a chair, and they didn't like it.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 20:25

Red tape is red for a reason.
My dad said "Oh god no" and turned the TV off.
Sounds like you had a lovely dad, there bigchoc Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 20:41

He was indeed, woman
Even though he died late 1960s, I remember how he respected my mum very highly.
In practice too: shared the vacuuming, dusting, polishing and did most of the cooking
And of course, having married my Arab mum in the late 1940s, he fiercely defended us both from any nasty remarks.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 20:47

Flowers BCF Respect to all the nice fellas.

LewisThere · 13/10/2017 20:50

That's Ian Duran Smith who had been rewriting the dictionary ....

LewisThere · 13/10/2017 20:51

Sorry I missed a hell of a lot if posts there.
Goes back reading the bits I missed

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 20:52

(paywall) Government needs to come clean on what it wants from our EU trade deal

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/allie-renison-government-needs-to-come-clean-on-what-it-wants-from-our-eu-trade-deal-tlkgbsb3f
....
Now, six months into a two-year negotiation

we are only really clear on what the government does not want
and that it is prepared to walk away from a “bad deal”.
....
Meanwhile, domestic arguments over transition that should have been settled long ago remain on the agenda,
because of the inevitable time needed to agree such a bespoke deal.

It also is crucial to ensure that the slow trickle of businesses which have so far implementing contingency plans
— with 10 per cent of IoD members having done so already but half holding off —
does not turn into an unnecessary surge of businesses relocating outside the UK.
....
Beyond interim arrangements, however, it is hard to know whether the government has a clear picture of what it wants for that future.

We want the negotiations to move on to trade now, but also have to ask the question:
is the UK actually ready to do so?
....
there is a gaping hole throughout all of them:
what replaces our membership of the internal market?
....
Compliance and checks are particularly driven by regulatory issues.
Ensuring the right duty is paid for goods crossing borders is no longer the main concern for customs control.

The removal of inspection posts for trade within the EU did not happen with the establishment of its customs union in 1968,
nor in the two decades that followed.

It was the advent of the internal market, completed in 1993, which finally abolished controls on goods crossing the borders within the EU.
....
These challenges are not properly reflected in the government’s future partnership papers.
I would find it difficult to present these to business leaders who make up the IoD’s membership as a basis for looking at what comes next.

Fundamental decisions on what the new regulatory relationship with the EU do not seem to have been taken.
....
So, I ask:
is the government truly ready to discuss our long term trading future with the EU?
We can only hope secretly they are.

It is easy to talk about leaving the Single Market, but what the UK wants instead seems a much more illusory prospect

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 20:57

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-could-be-banned-from-ae-unless-gp-refers-them-a3658161.html
Patients could be banned from A&E unless GP refers them

This is just...

...mind boggles.

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:01

(paywall) Matthew O’Toole, former chief press officer for Brexit at No 10

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-face-years-of-limbo-after-leaving-the-eu-htzll09t3
......
The prime minister said in her speech in Florence that access to the EU market should continue “on current terms” for a time limited period.

This was the first official confirmation from the PM
that the UK did not expect to negotiate a bespoke transition deal,
but rather (we assume) to accept something very close to membership of the European Economic Area, much like Norway.

To help secure this access, she indicated the UK would continue to pay into the EU’s coffers for the remainder of the seven-year budget period,
which began in 2014. < do umtil 2021>
......
But suppose the UK successfully negotiates a near-status quo interim period to begin on March 30 2019.
Would that transition ever end?

Even if the UK begins the work of negotiating trade deals with other countries,
these will take years to complete and involve political risks and concessions that are scarcely imaginable now.

And of course, the UK will have had to devise and then implement a solution for Ireland.
One that avoids the creation of a hard (or even visible) border
while satisfying the Brexiteer desire for as much divergence in trade policy and regulation as they can get.
.....
But there would also be a ready answer:
we’ve left the EU now, do we need any more hassle?

It will, by that stage, have been nearly three years since the UK voted to leave the EU.
If the political nerves seem frayed now, how will they be by 2019?

If the will to force a harder, cleaner Brexit struggles to win consensus, it may be unlikely to in three years’ time.

The morning after a heavy night on March 29 2019, the country may not want to keep the party going.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 21:04

If you've got private insurance, hang onto it.
If you haven't, buy now if you can afford to do so.
If you can't ..... pray ?

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 21:05

Dh and I are covered with his work policy
But the kids aren't
Time to start getting quotes I think :(

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 21:07

My dh has private health insurance through work but I suspect he might be uninsurable in other circumstances dues to his existing weird health condition. So not great then