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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:47

After Thatcher, Major was actually quite a pep. Cabinet government was back in fashion. He seemed a much more "old school" conservative (not "Tory"). From memory he never ducked a debate, and - big respect - he faced down the swivel-eyed-loons John Redwood when the crunch came.

And won.

And just in case anyone from the RMS Conservative Party is reading,. the reason I didn't vote Tory in 1997 was because you still had people like Redwood near power (see also 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017).

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 17:50

If any one is reading from the conservatives, it will be my life's mission to oust my current mp until they improve education funding in my area.
Top 10 funded areas for education- labour.
Worst 10 - conservative safe seats.
Same in London.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 17:53

Major was wise in his choices of those who advised him. Lord Carrington was one. And the NI peace process started under him. Still a tory though.

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 17:53

Why the electorate of Wokingham vote for Deadwood each time is utterly beyond me. He used to be a County Councillor in Oxfordshire and was known for being unpleasant then.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 18:03

I grew up in Harrow, which I had always assumed was "Conservative till I die". Turned out that in actual fact the good citizens of Harrow dumped the Conservatives 1971-1974 explicitly to get comprehensive education introduced. Of which I am a proud product ...

It was only when I got to Uni and beyond I realised how weird I was bought up:

  1. We had separate 6th forms, and the primary school was 5-8, junior 9-12, and high school 13-16 (all 4 years equally). This meant we started high school in "the second year".

  2. In addition to compulsory French from age 9 to 14 (that's 6 years no one could dodge) everyone had a second language at High School. In my case Latin.

Comprehensive schools in Harrow were regularly in the upper 10% in London.

I could weep for what we've lost.

As an aside, we were taught exclusively in metric (as indeed were all our contemporaries). So I ignore anyone younger than me who blabbers on about it ... they clearly weren't paying attention.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 18:13

lh i grew up in what was always called the three school system too. Next county had primary and secondary. I cannot fathom my dcs schooling at all and DH who grew up here is no help. Like you, I didn't realise how rare it was until uni. We were taught both metric and Imperial learning conversions though, others my age group are convinced they only did metric. My lovely little comp was always in the top schools list, above a lot of private local ones. It's not anymore sadly.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 18:15

Middle school system here until this year
No idea what's going to happen wrt 6th form provision

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 18:29

We were taught both metric and Imperial learning conversions though, others my age group are convinced they only did metric.

First day at school, our teacher told us how lucky we were to only learn in metric ... "the older boys and girls have to learn again ..." was how we were told.

Oh, here's another memory ... 2 condemned buildings being used as classrooms, plus 4 "mobile classrooms" on the playing field. Plus two classrooms built into the playground. We also lost our kitchens (school meals were delivered) to make space for classes.

Pretty much the same across the borough and a theme that continued into 6th form.

We were the baby boomers baby boomers ...

(this could be in danger of degenerating into a "you had it lucky" thread ...)

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 18:30

Major was wise in his choices of those who advised him. Lord Carrington was one. And the NI peace process started under him

Forgot that (sorry John) ... something that seemed impossible in 1980.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 18:35

Oh yes! Classes in portacabins - I remember that.
6 form entry in my day
Only 4 forms in ds1s year in same school (low birth year)

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 18:39

We had 1000+ pupils in our high school, and we weren't the biggest in the borough. That had dropped to about 800 when DB2 started a few years after me.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 18:40

portacabins

you mean mobile classrooms. You know, like "static caravans" ?

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 18:42

Im pretty sure ours were akways called terrapins. Which always confused me at zoos.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 18:43

A disgruntled student burnt ours down....

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 18:45

We had a weird covered outdoor corridor (I haven't explained that very well)
We had lessons in there sometimes
I didn't mind it in summer but in winter it was grim

JWIM · 13/10/2017 18:45

Another child of the '70s terapin classroom dweller - first fully comprehensive year in the County. To be fair a very successful for education provision Conservative shire but staunchly comprehensive and an occasional thorn in the DfE's side.

Holliewantstobehot · 13/10/2017 18:51

Sorry I'm being d

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 18:56

Dcs school has one terrapin. Dd was distraught the other day because they don't even have a video player in there. Took me ages to realise she meant an electronic whiteboard. In my day whiteboards were amazing, never mind electronic ones! At uni I was asked by the other students to put in a request to stop the lecturers using green chalk as blackboard at that time had ceased to actually be black, they were a very dark green and the poor colour blind students were struggling to read. Dd thinks I'm just making stuff up.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 18:58

So I've had a look at those You Gov figures.

Questions in today's one have been in other previous one (on different dates.

First up we have Is it right / wrong to leave the EU which is the one that's caught the headlines most. This was asked on three separate occasions.

Where have the biggest changes been? The 25 - 49 age group and in Scotland. (Also changes in London). Otherwise there is quite a bit of consistency in those figures.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 19:07

So what have people changed their minds on?

YouGov asked six questions: Good / Bad NHS, More / Less Immigration, Better / Worse Pensions, Economically Better / Worse, More / Less Influence, Better / Worse for British jobs.

This was asked on two occasions: October and in the middle August.

The NHS answers really haven't changed.

The immigrations ones have - general pattern is people think there will be less immigration.

The two most interesting are the answers relating to our influence and jobs.

This is the one on influence.

Look at those pesky 25-49er. Interesting the shift in the C2DEs. And its Londoners and Scots that are more pessimistic than they were in August.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 19:10

But the one that's most interesting is the one about Jobs.

Suddenly Conservatives are more pessimistic.

Look at those 25-49s again. And London / Scotland...

AND the C2DEs are nervous. And even the 50 - 64 year old are twitchy.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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Holliewantstobehot · 13/10/2017 19:12

Just lost my post. Third time lucky....

Who is DK? I keep thinking Diane Keaton.Grin

I had porta cabin classrooms in the 80s. We had a wonderful huge field we played on in the summer as well as a hard playground for the winter. The teachers used to teach what they liked as no national curriculum. Did a lot of watercolour painting with one teacher as was his hobby! The head used to teach special maths classes for the brainy ones in year 6. It was a really rural area so all the girls played horses and all the boys were obsessed with farm machinery. That was my favourite school.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 19:17

I was taught in a porta cabin in the mid nineties.

Then my school moved to new premises....

...which had a sixth form block which was too small for the sixth form.

They started building when we were in 2nd year. It was completed when we started in sixth form.

They had planned for classes of 10. They were more like twice the size. Obviously we were just too damn clever and they hadn't planned for us to be so clever. We were well impressed. Hmm

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NoCryingInEngineering · 13/10/2017 19:22

Portacabin classrooms and no physics when it rain because the roof leaked at my high school. It's now a shiny new PFI box with an all weather sports pitch. Probably scheduled to develop major structural problems in the next 5yrs (the school not the pitch)

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 19:23

We had some mobile classrooms installed when my grammar went comprehensive. We called them The Huts. They were put up as temporary buildings, and 50 years later, they look still to be there. (Unless they are new temporary classrooms on the old site.)