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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 16:23

My impression is the NHS will have to be disbanded/sold off due to monopolies issues under WTO rules.
It must be me. If we go to WTO we swap one set of rules for more that we don't have any/much input into or say over?

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 16:32

Iain Duncan Smith
We never made any commitments. We just made a series of promises that were possibilities.
Bear in mind that this is the person who also thinks unmarried men are problematic for society.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 16:34

idiots that's my impression too. Always has been from the moment the pro brexit economists were harping on about requiring a free market economy. Not compatible with the nhs.
People have been doubly fooled 're nhs.
Apologies for using the end of your name too, it's been a hard week and I'm enjoying writing idiots Bear

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 16:35

The nhs thing is no surprise for me

prettybird · 13/10/2017 16:36

Can't find any evidence that WTO rules would force the NHS to be sold off due to its monopoly.

I have however, found loads of article and research papers pointing out the major risks to the NHS are the smaller tax base from which to fund it and the shortage of staff if the EU workers go home or won't/can't come to the UK. Sad

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 16:36

The thought of Corbyn being PM frightens me much more than any recession from Brexit.

Why ? Given:

  1. You know as much about Brexit as life under Corbyn
  2. If Theresa May can't bully the Tory party to do her bidding, what makes people think Corbyn can bully the Labour party to do his bidding ?
  3. Personally I have lived under Labour, Tory, Labour, Labour/Liberal, Tory, Labour, Tory/Liberal, and Tory governments in my life. In reflection they were all shit and all good in equal measures.

Also, from my perspective Ken LIvingtstones GLC was the best thing to happen to London in a long time. Now that may not be everyones view in hindsight, but the bottom line is that (unfortunately for "project fear") I am old enough to know what an approximation of socialism looks like. And I don't fear it.

And since half the country seems happy to shit on the other half by dragging the UK out of the EU, then is seems to be a matter of cosmic balance that there's another half willing to do the same by backing Corbyn. With a cry of "You started it !" across the divide.

TheElementsSong · 13/10/2017 16:41

Faisal Islam does a thread on EURATOM here:

mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/918762640482107392

He quotes a range of experts who are traitorously talking nuclear Britain down.

lalalonglegs · 13/10/2017 16:53

Boris isn't a shoo-in. He'd have to get past the first few rounds of WM voting where he unloved and unadmired. We could all be taken by surprise by a relative unknown prays it's not Priti Patel.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 17:06

Sorry pretty
I was typing under an onslaught of random information from the dc.
I meant that the nhs is in massive trouble from a potential free market economy which seems to be where we're heading in a no deal scenario, not necessarily just potential wto rules regarding monopolies (I have no clue in that area I will freely admit)

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:07

Boris isn't a shoo-in. He'd have to get past the first few rounds of WM voting where he unloved and unadmired.

The usual trick is to have a hopeless candidate, who destroys confidence in the incumbent by exploiting the secret ballot nature of Tory Democracy allowing people to safely not back them. At that point it becomes open season as other candidates step forward having been safely guided into the flight deck by the incumbents failure. Mrs Thatcher was deposed in exactly this way.

The biggest problem is finding that initial challenger, as they will forever after be a pariah using the chivalric trope that a servant who betrays one master can betray the next ....

That said, Michael Heseltine didn't do so badly in the short term.

Incidentally, remembering back to those times, I knew two Tory voters who were terrified Heseltine would win. Far more scared than Theresa May seems to be of Jeremy Corbyn ?

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 17:12

woman's link to Robert Preston"s report lift's the veil of a shocking state of affairs re Brexit Sad

No wonder the negotiations are going badly:
it's not just that the cabinet can't agree negotiating aims;
May is so frit that she has never even allowed any discussion - so they haven't got as far as disagreement !

In the words of a senior member of the cabinet,
"it is a scandal that there has never been a cabinet discussion
about what kind of access we want to the EU’s market once we leave,
what kind of regulatory and supervisory regime should then be in place to ensure a level playing field for EU and UK businesses,
and - don’t gasp - how much we might actually pay to the EU as the so-called divorce bill."

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 17:16

I used to be very worried about a recession if Corbyn or the "hard left" got in
However, compared to the Brexit recession - Tories trying turning back the clock to Year Zero, that seems trivial now

If May, the cabinet and the Tory party were all KGB sleeper agents suddenly awakened by Putin, they couldn't do much more damage to the country than a no-deal / WTO Brexit

Oh, maybe I've stumbled on the awful truth ....

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:19

I'm curious what super power Corbyn has which makes him somehow unique in the annals of UK politics so that he can rule the UK as one man unfettered by such fripperies as cabinet government and parliamentary democracy.

In fact the only thing that would give him those powers is the Repel Bill the Tories think we should trust them with.

I hope someone more eloquent than me can get that across to the public.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 17:21

That YouGov poll shows specifically the hmmering that May and the Tories are taking from `Remainers - the 48%

Remainers re "Who do you want as PM:"
May 18 %
JC 49 %
DK 33 %

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 17:21

One of the few things we have to praise Maggie Thatcher for - bringing the word 'frit' into standard English - too good to let it languish as Lincs dialect.

I don't think May's not allowing Cabinet discussions is necessarily because she is frit - it's just the way she operates.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:24

I don't think May's not allowing Cabinet discussions is necessarily because she is frit - it's just the way she operates.

The Home Office was hardly a beacon of transparent government.

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 17:31

My dsis used to work with May in a lose capacity. Ultra directive. Not interested in discussion or other view points.

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 17:31

I wondered for a fleeting moment who this dark horse DK on 33 % was.
Then the penny dropped. But we could end up with an outsider. Did anyone seriously predict Major would become PM? Or say in 2014 that Corbyn could be talked about as a possible PM?

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 17:34

Jo Maugham just on PM about his common law challenge to publishing the brexit impact papers. (Interesting case law precedent involving
the moral excremence that is george galloway Grin)
Yeah BigChoc what a pickle.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:34

My dsis used to work with May in a lose capacity.

Is there a word for a sentence where a typo/misspelling makes it no less accurate or truthful ?

lalalonglegs · 13/10/2017 17:38

Fucking hell - for those who haven't read the Peston blog yet:

In the words of a senior member of the cabinet, it is a scandal that there has never been a cabinet discussion about what kind of access we want to the EU’s market once we leave, what kind of regulatory and supervisory regime should then be in place to ensure a level playing field for EU and UK businesses, and - don’t gasp - how much we might actually pay to the EU as the so-called divorce bill.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 17:38

Did anyone seriously predict Major would become PM?

When he won, the press had to scrabble to find out about him.

There was an artfully clever dramatisation made shortly after (BBC - similar to "The Trial of Tony Blair") where the story that Major was unable to take part in some of the debates due to "toothache" was mischievously portrayed as gospel fact (if my aging memory serves).

The irony being he wasn't such a bad PM. Coneline and hypocritical dalliances with Edwina Currie excepted.

May is already the worst Prime Minister I have ever lived under. By a country mile (or, following the question I asked upthread) by a cuntry mile.

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 17:38

lurking lol
She still works with the HO but I'm not allowed to say anything except for what's out there already- what a shambles

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 17:40

Major was mp whilst pm. He was actually quite good.
The current one is a chocolate teapot. And that's being kind.

Smdugedstars · 13/10/2017 17:45

M4Dad you have posted enthusiastically on numerous dodgy racist threads in the last few days. Why is Corbyn so scary to you? Are you able to explain you concern factually?

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