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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 13:46

@EuroGuido
Steve Baker In Charge of Contingency Planning: order-order.com/2017/10/13/baker-given-responsibility-contingency-planning/

@stephenkb
Why just a minister? Why not a whole department for magical thinking?

Ye-es: but as we know from @jk_rowling the Minister for Magic was renowned for burying his head in the sand and ignoring reality.

Loved the 'true believer' line. Let's hope the canoe he buys doesn't have many holes in it

If this man's shadow is a Remainer with a sense of humour, s/he will send him a wall-sized map of the M20 for his office.

The 'you broke it, you fix it' school of brexit contingency plans.
Little Steven Baker.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 13:53

The default UK electoral position has always been that uncast votes are for the status quo
I didn't know this. How does this work wrt to GE or is it just in referenda situation?

'Whim' of the people sounds better, though it still discounts the vast majority of people. Those pesky redefinitions again. I missed the list of additional questions that appeared if you marked the leave box and apparently the disclaimer that stated I gave up my rights to be a person should I end up on the minority side. Meh

OlennasWimple · 13/10/2017 14:10

Great minds think alike, Lurking, I was just about to post that Yes Minister clip too!

Instead I'll share this one on the EEC - probably already featured on one of these threads, but always worth a re-watch

And this on the "European Identity Card"

Grin
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 14:41

Lies Matter - that 350 million probably won it

Immigration too, but that was based mainly on some people’s dislike of having “too many” foreigners around.
Without the NHS lie, would immigration have been enough ? Hmm

An Ipsos MORI poll the week before the referendum

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nearly-half-of-britons-believe-vote-leaves-false-350-million-a-week-to-the-eu-claim-a7085016.html

found that 47 per cent of the public believe that the claim, which has been repeatedly criticised by the UK Statistics Authority, is true.
Just 39 per cent realise the figure, which has formed the centerpiece of the Leave campaign, is false, while 14 per cent do not know.

So much for the claim Leave posters keep making “noone believed the claim on the bus”
The bus was a LIE that worked

That lie only needed to work until the referendum – although polls show some Leavers still believe it
Maybe some of that % who think Brexit will make things better
The lie is still working and may continue to be believed until after Brexit - even then it will have been "stolen" by treacherous Remainers

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 14:41

Hello clever people. Can I check something? Does leaving with no Deal has a profound impact on the NHS? In that we'll have to sell it off because of monopolies etc.
And therefore how does WTO work with the sovereignty argument?

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 14:43

The bus was a LIE that worked
Technically the lie was perfect. Hit all the rules of influencing language. Just wasn't true.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 14:44

Even when the Home Office breaks its own rules, it won’t correct its wrong decisions:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/13/british-american-family-split-across-atlantic-after-home-office-error

The Home Office is urgently reviewing the case of a British-American family hit by costs of £45,000 and split between different sides of the Atlantic
after it refused to reverse a visa decision based on a misinterpretation of its own rules.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 14:46

The aggressively xenophobic Home Office makes it very unlikely the UK will attract the best & the brightest from around the world – as Leavers keep claiming they want.

HM the Queen better watch out:
German ancestry and a lifetime on benefits, married to a Greek immigrant who has been on benefits ever since their marriage 70 years ago !

Has the HO sent them a letter yet ? Hmm

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 14:49

Petition to disband the home office as it's not fit for purpose.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 15:18

I wonder if anyone else here has heard Brexit referred to as "switch selling" ?

OlennasWimple · 13/10/2017 15:33

That case is horrible, BigChoc. I wish he had sought legal advice before leaving the UK (or understood the conditions attached to his leave). And certainly should not have entered as a tourist and accepted a job offer. There was a much much more simple way through this awful mess that has been created

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 15:35

Please stop me from talking on other brexit threads. My blood pressure can't stand it.

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 15:36

As a little bump anyone know about WTO and the NHS?

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 15:44

idiots is this helpful independent article

Switch selling sounds about right, though we may not even getting a product anything like what we were sold Shock

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 15:45

@Peston
“Theresa May will be gone by Christmas”.
Not my words. Those of a minister - who says that the past week has...
facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1930951983896204

To be clear, I am not saying Boris Johnson will be PM within weeks. But I am saying that I no longer regard that as an absurd notion

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 15:47

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

Can we just cut to Remainers being blamed and Leavers shouting betrayal?

It would save awful lot of time and money, and nobody would mind.

Many Leavers would seem more comfortable being able to complain of betrayal rather than making Brexit possible.

So lets just go to that.

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 40% (+3)
LAB: 30% (+3)
CON: 23% (-6)
LDEM: 5% (-2)

via @YouGov, 02 - 05 Oct
Chgs w GE result

-6% (!) for the Cons.

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 15:48

So, BoJo as PM.

What's changed ? How will he break the Brexit deadlock that May couldn't ?

Tick tock.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 15:50

So the future is actually coming into view ...

Brexit or Jeremy Corbyn Hmm
Brexit or Scottish Independence.

suddenly things have become a lot simpler ?????????

LewisThere · 13/10/2017 16:08

Someone (sorry can't remember who!) from the heave side said all the promises from the campaign were just possibilities.
So there are NO LIES at all. Just possibilities that aren't happening.
Such a shame Hmm

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 16:13

Someone (sorry can't remember who!) from the heave side said all the promises from the campaign were just possibilities.

Including Brexit, then ?

So there are NO LIES at all. Just possibilities that aren't happening.

There's a deeper question there about impossibilities that aren't happening ...

OlennasWimple · 13/10/2017 16:14

The whole "not promises, just possibilities" opens up all kinds of cans of worms. Including the end of the convention that Parliament doesn't vote against policies set out in the winning party's election manifesto, for example. Because a manifesto would just be a summary of possibilities, and not something that anyone should reasonably expect to actually happen if they cast their vote in favour of the proposals.

M4Dad · 13/10/2017 16:14

The thought of Corbyn being PM frightens me much more than any recession from Brexit.

Theworldisfullofidiots · 13/10/2017 16:19

Hashi thank you.