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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 08:38

23% still think the country will be better off after Brexit!
True, prettybird
On the other hand, taking into account educational disadvantages of many of the country and the control of the media, it's astonishingly low.

@ChukaUmunna
New YouGov poll shows public opinion on Brexit is shifting: 47% now think Brexit is wrong for Britain versus 42% widest margin since last yr

JJPatrick and others' investigations into cyber collaboration between the usual suspects is about to get much wider coverage too.

The big news story of this, when it is all over, might be that the media in all its forms has less power than those who sought to weaponise it might have hoped.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:06

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/allie-renison-government-needs-to-come-clean-on-what-it-wants-from-our-eu-trade-deal-tlkgbsb3f
Government needs to come clean on what it wants from our EU trade deal

Times Red Box article.

Is the Times responding to what their yougov survey has said? Interesting that their editorial lead published at 5pm yesterday was in favour of impact assessments being published. They probably had the yougov results at that point. Now today this article in their prestigious red box section.

I don't expect other newspapers to shift at this point, the times has a larger remain base than some others, but it perhaps does give a sense of just how business is getting REALLY nervous.

Possibly will protect Hammond to a degree (but still worry Hammond could be taken out).

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:14

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/eu-to-offer-may-hope-of-post-brexit-talks-at-summit-draft-text-idUKKBN1CH317?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
EU to offer May hope of post-Brexit talks at summit - draft text

European Union leaders could hand Theresa May an olive branch in deadlocked Brexit negotiations next week by launching their own internal preparations for a transition to a new relationship with Britain.

As already rumoured. Its for show and doesn't actually change anything but May can claim as a 'victory'. Is about making it look 'presentationally' ok for the UK audience as Telegraph Political Editor said a couple of week ago.

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:23

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/12/the-guardian-view-on-the-imfs-message-yes-tax-the-super-rich?CMP=twt_gu
The Guardian view on the IMF’s message: yes, tax the super-rich
Editorial

The International Monetary Fund has been on quite a journey from the days when it was seen as the provisional wing of the Washington consensus, an ideology that promoted the false idea that growth was turbo-charged by scrapping welfare policies and pursuing privatisations. These days the IMF is less likely to harp on about the joys ofliberalised capital flows than it is to warn of the dangers of ever-greater inequality. TheFund’s latest – and welcome – foray intothe realms of progressive economics came this week when it used its half-yearly fiscal monitor – normally a dry-as-dust publication – to make the case for higher taxes on the super-rich. Make no mistake, this is asignificant moment.

The IMF. Those Neo-Liberal Capitalist Dogs. Essentially more on the same page as Corbyn than Free Market Brexiteers.

It makes those comments about how Labour will 'cause a collapse in the pound' look even more daft. Not good for Conservative thinking.

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:25

Election Data‏*@election*_data
Intriguing from @YouGov: "Was Britain right or wrong to vote for Brexit?". A marked shift to Wrong. Only one poll and need more data as always (lolz)
What's important in the crossbreaks is who has moved.
What I'm watching re: Brexit is the relationship between the PM/Tory approval rating and opinion on Brexit. Hypothesis is they're related and that's bad news for Brexiteers

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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 09:28

@JohnRentoul
Basic services (not basic income) – free housing, food, transport, internet; £1,260 a yr tax rise for most taxpayers :

www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/igp/sites/bartlett/files/universal_basic_services_-the_institute_for_global_prosperity.pdf

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 09:30

PM/Tory approval rating
Labour on 42 Tories on 39 today. Still not much in it.

Icantreachthepretzels · 13/10/2017 09:38

whilst its incredible that nearly a quarter of people can be so blind, it does mean that 77% of people now realise we won't be better off at all. In a world where 52% is classified as a landslide majority and 'the will of the people' doesn't 77% of people thinking things will either be the same or worse mean its time to just call the whole thing off?

I actually find the idea that 77% of us have now taken up residence in reality quite heartening!

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:39

Lab/Con Poll Figures = Fear of Corbyn greater or less than Fear of Brexshit.

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 09:48

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/89749/excl-former-tory-minister-urges-government
EXCL Former Tory minister urges government to publish Brexit impact studies

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Peregrina · 13/10/2017 10:10

I find it hard to take opinion polls seriously now. I think the 2015 one predicted a hung Parliament, although the results there may have been within the margin of error, so we might let that one pass. But 2017 most polls predicted a Labour wipe out and a huge majority for May. Although YouGov did get it right, so should I be trusting them?

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 10:16

Lab/Con Poll Figures = Fear of Corbyn greater or less than Fear of Brexshit.

I'm not afraid of Jeremy Corbyn.
I am afraid of Brexit.

So if Jeremy Corbyn were to offer not-Brexit, it's a no brainer.

Or, an alternative narrative is "bad things happen under conservative governments too (like Brexit ?)".

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 10:29

Although YouGov did get it right, so should I be trusting them?

As someone who has done thousands of YouGov surveys, they are no better/no worse than other name pollsters. There are surveys where it's obvious there is an underlying agenda ... at the end of the day he who pays the piper &c ...

prettybird · 13/10/2017 10:38

It's interesting that although I'm down for "as many as you like" YouGov surveys - and have had a few over the last week or so - not a so single one has asked my voting or Brexit opinions Confused

Maybe in previous surveys I've been too adamant in my opinions and that it is highly unlikely that they would change Grin

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 11:19

YouGov have quite a good reputation in the industry - I can't see them flushing it for Brexit unless all the directors become very rich.

(Returning to my comment a while ago that as things worsen, companies that want to have a post-Brexit reputation will have to start calling it like it is, or risk becoming a laughing stock).

They have a massive panel, so really like to mix things up.

What's probably happening, is they are being approached by loads of pro-Brexiteer customers (that shadowy magic money tree) who have specifically requested a certain profile of respondent. Such details would be "Client confidential", so you wouldn't know the starting basis for the survey. Another reason to take them with a firkin of salt.

And anyway, we all know:

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 12:14

Good Twitter thread on so called treason
secret barrister
I'd copy and paste but it includes a lot of attached pictures.

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 12:18

All that discussion really does is tell us that Julia Hartley Brewer is a bit dim.

Not really sure that's news Hmm

squishysquirmy · 13/10/2017 12:22

Grin love it Hashi

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 12:29

Hashi I loved DAG quote on that thread:

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

"Treasondoth never prosper: what's the reason?
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason."

John Harington

(Interchangeable with the word 'corruption' btw).

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LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 12:38

John Harington

Interesting to see a post-reformation slant on current events ....

RTB David Starkey has an article in the current BBC History magazine (pp 44). He makes the interesting observation that we've been sold a story of the reformation that never really happened ... that is was somehow what the English people wanted. In actual fact it wasn't. It was what the King wanted. And everyone else had to suck it up.

It's hard not to draw parallels with Brexit. Which - for all the "will of the people" guff does have a terribly top-down feel to it.

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 12:52

Will of the People is bullshit. I've just been arguing the point (again). Someone is trying to tell me that the EU doesn't listen to public opinion and is impervious to it. Its incredible to watch.

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LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 13:06

Will of the People is bullshit

It's one of those irregular phrases. It might have had some currency if we had clear examples that previous governments had actually respected TWOTP. But a million-plus march, coupled with clear indications that the vast majority of the UK did not want a war showed otherwise.

To chose one example from recent history.

Also, isn't it curious how all of a sudden the long-held UK tradition of counting uncast votes as being for the status quo got canned ? Well, until the next election when it's back in force.

The worst fallout from the whole affair - on top of Blairs corrosive tenure - is a total breakdown of trust in government. Back to heads on spikes.

HashiAsLarry · 13/10/2017 13:19

The will of the people would have a lot more standing if they people weren't only about a third of all eligible voters. Or if the so called people were being asked about which direction to go in, etc etc

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 13:25

The will of the people would have a lot more standing if they people weren't only about a third of all eligible voters.

No. The default UK electoral position has always been that uncast votes are for the status quo. So why was this referendum unique ? (We know it was shit. But uniquely shit).

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 13:36

Dunt calls it the 'whim' of the people.

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