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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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woman11017 · 12/10/2017 22:27

@JolyonMaugham
We're going to sue @DExEUgov and @hmtreasury to seek to compel them to release the secret Brexit studies:

Tactics and timing . lala Strikes may not be necessary by December. Smile

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 22:31

LAW AND policy @ Davidallengreen
This is now concerning.

Bill needs to be an Act well before Brexit day.

Legally catastrophic if not on statute book in good time.

In response to delay to the Repel Bill committee stage.

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woman11017 · 12/10/2017 22:36

Legally catastrophic It's either no law or EU, looks like.
Fortunately Dr Fox has an idea for a new ship:
@SamCoatesTimes
Liam Fox has been discussing the yacht “Brexit-annia” and “a secret naval design” drawn up #empire2.0

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 22:39

Omg this is significant in my opinion. This is the times editorial leader:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f220980a-af66-11e7-8f75-2b6f1159f66f
Coming Clean

The government has sensibly prepared assessments of the impact of Brexit on each sector of the economy. Now it must publish them

Next week MPs will start debating the European withdrawal bill line by line as its committee stage starts in the House of Commons. It is no exaggeration to say the chamber will not have faced a more momentous piece of business since debating the European Communities Act that took Britain into what became the EU 45 years ago. Yet MPs will be handicapped by an information deficit.

This story was published at 5pm. I believe the timetable for next week in the commons was published after, which does not include the brexit bill as expected.

That delay might yet run the government into further trouble with pressure growing for the publication of those reports.

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woman11017 · 12/10/2017 22:43

This needs more signatures for publication of brexit impact report:
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200634

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 22:43

Maugham is suing for the papers and The Times just got on board with the idea. And there's (at least) a week delay on the Repel Bill.

Ouch.

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woman11017 · 12/10/2017 22:44

@davidallengreen
If Withdrawal Bill not on statute book in time: no basis for 10,000s of laws, no way of implementing Brexit agreement, legal pandemonium.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 23:03

Bbc question time @ bbcquestiontime
New analysis published by NatCen suggests that Brexit & #GE2017 have helped create six new political groups.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 23:21

I've signed the petition, woman .

OlennasWimple · 12/10/2017 23:22

I'm going to guess that Parliament would kick into emergency mode and the poor buggers would be sitting throughout the night in order to get the bill through on time. Which increases the risk of errors and unintended consequences many times over.

I've already been told by a few civil servant friends that there is no space on the statute books for anything non-Brexit related, so Whitehall is running into stagnation in many areas (already! and there is still months to go!)

BigChoc - to be fair, pretty much every country distinguishes between its own citizens and Johnny Foreigner, it's just a question of degrees (some places won't let you own property or a business, some make you apply every year for a permit to live there, most apply some kind of restriction on working rights, etc etc etc).

mathanxiety - I'm 99% certain that no-one working on the GFA though about the read across to civil service job eligibility Grin. I don't know, though, whether legally a NI person is a dual citizen if they hold both an Irish and British passport or not. I think they must be? Or are they both Irish and British but not technically dual citizens? It feels like a consubstantiation / transubstantiation question...

In any case, working for the British government (or indeed getting security clearance to undertake particular roles for the British government) is not a right enjoyed by all British citizens - unlike the visa case earlier in the thread, where the ability to bring in a foreign national fiance(e) is a right that was being denied to someone in error.

prettybird · 12/10/2017 23:42

Petition now over 17,000 (I was 17,003rd). Still a ways to go until it requires to be debated though.

prettybird · 12/10/2017 23:44

That table doesn't mean much - although the movement between elections is interesting - without any sense of the relative sizes of the different "groups" Confused

mathanxiety · 13/10/2017 02:55

The GFA acknowledges "the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose, and accordingly confirm that their right to hold both British and Irish citizenship is accepted by both Governments and would not be affected by any future change in the status of Northern Ireland."

mathanxiety · 13/10/2017 02:57

I think they are technically not dual citizens.

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 04:51

I'm 99% certain that no-one working on the GFA though about the read across to civil service job eligibility.

As one who was a civil servant for a number of years, I am sure that the rules predate the GFA and no-one has given much thought to update them. It probably would take a legal challenge for them to do so. A comparable situation might be whereby people leaving and returning could not join on a grade higher than clerical officer if they were over 28, (in the normal run, exceptions might have been made for high flyiers). This tended to affect women much more than men, but it took a court case about indirect discrimination for them to alter the rules. My cousin got caught out by this. I myself was a beneficiary of the rules changing.

As far as the Security situation was concerned, it only applied to some departments, had to be renewed at intervals, and could be lost.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 07:23

Some interesting local election results coming in...

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 07:24

Oxhey Hall & Harling (Three Rivers) result:

LDEM: 41.3% (+18.5)
CON: 28.3% (-8.4)
LAB: 26.3% (+4.4)
UKIP: 2.2% (-16.4)
GRN: 1.9% (+1.9)

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 07:24

Beighton (Sheffield) result:

LAB: 48.6% (+5.2)
LDEM: 26.6% (+21.0)
CON: 16.3% (-0.8)
UKIP: 6.3% (-19.2)
GRN: 2.2% (-3.1)

Labour HOLD.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 07:25

Lovely to see ukip vote collapsing but depressing to see them garner any votes

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 07:27

Signed woman

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 08:11

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-s-support-has-fallen-since-disastrous-conference-speech-kckc9b22f?shareToken=78c3eb61de91c540ee3cc6bfb74107a4
Theresa May’s support has fallen since disastrous conference speech

Not paywalled Times Article

A YouGov poll for The Times found that Mrs May’s ratings have taken a hit since her conference shambles triggered a weekend of Tory turmoil.

And

Mrs May has a problem among voters who backed Remain in the EU referendum — she is now the preferred choice of only 18 per cent of them, while 49 per cent of Remain voters support Mr Corbyn for prime minister and 33 per cent say they are not sure.

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RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 08:18

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/?utm_content=buffer5a80e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Brexit was not the voice of the working class nor of the uneducated – it was of the squeezed middle

Just like in the US.

The left-out argument has been constructed around voters whose low levels of education render them unable to compete with those with a university degree in the globalised economy. Academic research has already argued against this. For example, Goodwin and Heath show that voters with A-level education from low skilled communities had similar pro-Leave voting profiles to those with no education.

And

Our findings confirm a negative relationship between education and voting Leave: the higher the level of one’s education, the lower the likelihood of them voting Leave. Our findings, however, reject the dichotomous view of the low-educated Brexiter vs the high-educated Remainer, by showing that two groups with intermediate levels of education (voters with good GSCEs and A-levels) were more pro-Leave than the low-educated (those with no formal education and with low GSCE grades).

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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 08:22

Reveal Secret Brexit Reports or We’ll Sue You, U.K. Is Warned
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-12/reveal-secret-brexit-reports-or-we-ll-sue-you-u-k-is-warned

Isn't this brexit nonsense, such a colossal waste of time, money and effort.

prettybird · 13/10/2017 08:26

That Times article has the shocking figure that 23% still think the country will be better off after Brexit! ShockConfused

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 08:35

David Lammy @ davidlammy
New YouGov poll shows public opinion on Brexit is shifting: 47% now think Brexit is wrong for Britain versus 42% widest margin since last yr

Last month had 7% of Leavers showing Bregret according to YouGov. Not sure if the same question asked on this latest one. Will take a look when break down is up on YouGov (probably tomorrow) and I'll dig out those figures from last month too as ive only seen them for the first time today.

They possibly big enough differences to start saying they are greater than the margin of error. Could show significant shift for first time.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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