Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

[RedToothBrush]

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

"more realistic, optimistic forecasts"
A logical impossibility

I think Redwood means "lie to the public, to keep them happy until it's too late"

Joining NAFTA

The hidden aim of many Atlantic Bridge wonks (Fox &co) & many rightwing Tories ..... to be a poodle

This Torygraph article received many positive btl comments.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/10/britain-could-join-nafta-trade-alliance-us-canada-mexico-post/

Britain could join a formal trade alliance with the US, Canada and Mexico if Britain is unable to secure a post-Brexit deal with the EU under plans being considered by ministers.

The Telegraph understands that the Government is examining the possibility of joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, known as Nafta, as part of its planning for a “no deal” scenario.

Reality Check from former UK ambassador to the US

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/11/banned-phrase-special-relationship-uk-ambassador-america-makes/

On this side of the Atlantic, the idea of a special relationship has evolved into an idealised vision of UK-US relations,
which generates unrealistic expectations and encourages prime ministers to behave like poodles.

It was a phrase that I banned in the British embassy in Washington 20 years ago.

Just before Jack Straw paid his first visit to the US as foreign secretary,
I was invited by the secretary of state, Colin Powell, to come to the State Department and discuss the agenda for their talks.

Powell showed me the text of his short speech of welcome.
Somebody had scrawled in black ink across the top of the page:
“Don’t forget the special relationship!”
I pointed this out.
Powell replied with a laugh: “We know you Brits will go ape-s— if I don’t mention the special relationship.”

It was humiliating to be seen to be so needy, like a banana republic.
It makes me curl up inside to recall Gordon Brown’s look of relief when President Obama spoke the dreaded phrase on his visit to Britain in 2009.

Worse, it was often used against us in negotiations.

In a particularly tough exchange over transatlantic air services,
I remember being accused of not caring about the special relationship,
which would be damaged if Britain did not agree to the US position.

I have never known a negotiation with the US where “America First” has not been the driving motive on the US side.

It is no recent Trumpian invention.
When it comes to negotiating a free-trade agreement with the US,
the UK should forget any idea that the so-called special relationship will blunt the single-mindedness of the American team to get the better of us.

In my experience, most American trade negotiators have been trained as lawyers and are skilled in the arts of take-no-prisoner litigation.

The stark truth is that the transmission belt between warm and fuzzy words of encouragement from the White House
and the cut and thrust of the negotiating table can be gossamer thin
– the more so when they have been uttered by a president as mercurial and capricious as Trump.
....
In truth, the US has only one special relationship.
That is with Israel, because of its influence over the US Congress.

So, when the UK-US trade talks open,
the only thing special I hope to see will be the toughness of our pragmatism.

US and Israel pull out of UNESCO

Does that mean that the UK will pull out of UNESCO too? Anything to slavishly copy the Americans.

I don't think anything would surprise me anymore.....

You know, I'm amazed that supposedly clever people have this ludicrous - and frankly rather dimwitted - notion that the US as top dog would do anything different to the way Great Britain acted when it was top dog.

That way being basically: fuck you to the rest of the world.

Understanding that will make it all the sweeter when China does the same to the US who are desperately trying to be their best friend right now.

(See also: Phoenicians; Babylonians; Sumerians; Assyrians; Egyptians; Greeks; Romans; Ottomans ...)

To be honest, I'd have thought that shower listed would be a lot more patriotic ....

But but but, won't joining NAFTA involve ceding some of our precious SOVEREIGNTY to some non English UK body?

How very dare anyone suggest that!

Does that mean that the UK will pull out of UNESCO too?

What ? And lose that cheque too ?

Sovereinty won't matter to the Tory right cosying up to the Americans.

But that was the only thing anyone voted Leave for! Not a soul voted to get rid of immigrants, as we've been so regularly told.

FTAs with RoW: Yet more legal complication wrt 3rd countries and Uk components

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/legal-complexities-make-transition-deal-with-the-eu-almost-impossible-wvxfzxsww

..... A second issue concerns the 40 free trade agreements the EU has with third countries.

These also need to be replicated in their entirety to avoid new barriers to trade — again any divergence from the EU’s commercial policy will lead to new trade barriers.

Yet rolling over these agreements, as Britain says it wants to do, isn’t straightforward.

The problem is that once the UK itself becomes a third country,
British goods containing substantial EU components may no longer count as British under the complicated rules of origin that govern world trade
— and vice versa.

To change these rules to enable pan-European supply chains to remain intact will require a three-way negotiation
involving the UK, EU and each of the countries with which the EU now has a free trade agreement.

As the UK is already discovering
after running into hostility from the United States, New Zealand and others
over a deal reached with Brussels at the World Trade Organisation
to divide up current EU agricultural quotas,
other countries will robustly defend their interests.

If you're applying for a role requiring security clearance please be aware that foreign or dual nationality is not an automatic bar. However certain posts may have restrictions which could affect those who do not have sole British nationality or who have personal connections with certain countries outside the UK [job application]

The thing is, though, the UK government is a signatory of the GFA, whose terms state that NI citizens who opt to hold an Irish passport and only an Irish passport are still 100% British and their rights as British citizens are completely unaffected by the choice of passport. Same goes for their choice of nationality.

It seems to me from that job description that nobody has thought about the implications of the GFA. Not surprisingly. Joining the dots is not the forte of the UK government.

Also obvious is that the school is not aware of the GFA or its terms.

Unimaginable for UK to leave EU without a deal, says IMF chief

< subtitled "so don't come running to us again for emergency support when your economy goes down the toilet" >

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/12/christine-lagarde-imf-britain-eu-no-deal-brexit-talks

“I just cannot imagine that that will happen, because for the people themselves, what does it mean?
“The Europeans who are based in the UK and the British who are residing in the EU, WTO does not provide for such eventualities.

“When I think of the airline industries, the landing rights in various European countries …
There is so much that has been brought together between the continent and the UK that it requires a very specific approach which will reduce the uncertainty that is damaging potential.”

Considering how often the Home Office breaks the law in its treatment of foreign residents, even flouting decisions by UK judges
it all seems part of a deliberate national policy against anyone "insufficiently British"

Govt policy has now seeped down to schools, landlords, employers, banks - all eagerly being good little informers and enforcers of Britishness

Don't think anyone has linked this article by Nick Clegg. I wish he would come back....also am really liking the Times at the no.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nick-clegg-be-warned-brexiteers-i-know-better-than-most-the-consequences-of-breaking-a-promise-p83rsjdwg

Not sure about a paywall
subscribing for less than £1 a week.

RED BOX | COMMENT
october 12 2017, 12:01am, the times
Nick Clegg: Be warned, Brexiteers - I know better than most the consequences of breaking a promise

nick clegg

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A promise is “assuring someone that something will happen”. Look it up in the dictionary. It’s there in black and white. Iain Duncan Smith, however, disagrees. When asked to reflect on the official Leave campaign’s shopping list of promises to the voters during the referendum campaign, Duncan Smith, one of the most vocal campaigners for Brexit, dismissively replied: “We just made a series of promises that were possibilities.”

We know that leading lights of the Leave campaign had had enough of experts; now they appear to have had enough of dictionaries.

It’s easy to see why. None of their impossible promises have been met and, as I suspect Mr Duncan Smith knows full well, never will be.

Where’s the £350m a week that Mr Duncan Smith et al said would be spent on the NHS instead of being sent to Brussels? There’s no sign.

Sweeping VAT cuts on energy and fuel? Nothing.

The introduction of an Australian-style immigration system? Nowhere to be seen in the Conservative Party’s general election manifesto.

Taking back control of our borders? In fact a new, open land border with the EU will be created in Ireland.

Total freedom from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice? The prime minister this week admitted that this won’t happen any time soon.

David Davis’ swaggering claim that in a matter of years the UK would benefit from a series of trade deals that were “at least ten times the size of the European Union”? Given that this is bigger than the GDP of every country on Earth, we know that can’t happen. Ever.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the loudest proponents for Brexit appear to be operating in a galaxy of their own, but striking trade deals beyond our own planet may be beyond even their alienlogic.

But then again everything’s feasible once you convert “promises” into “possibilities”. I wish I’d thought of that one when I was in government.

So it is hardly surprising that the pre-referendum braggadocio of the Brexiteers is now turning into shrill alarm. With clockwork predictability, they blame their failure to deliver their promises on Brussels and the European politicians who, let us remember, never wanted this Brexit fight in the first place.

With equal predictability, Brexit ministers have turned on the saner voices around the cabinet table such as Philip Hammond, and equate the chancellor’s pragmatic realism with a refusal to let - to borrow Boris Johnson’s tired cliche - the British Lion roar.

Their problem, however, is that the British Lion that was sold to the electorate last June is beginning to look a little mangier than they let people believe. The threat to delivering Brexit does not come from across the Channel – but from the failure of the Brexiteers themselves to agree what Brexit actually means.

“If it’s not delivered, there will be the most terrible damage to the integrity of the political establishment,” protested Owen Paterson, another of the leading Tory advocates of Brexit.

You would have hoped Paterson et al would be more worried about the country than the “establishment”. There is a fairly simple rule in politics. If you make a promise, and you fail to deliver it, then you should be held to account. It’s a rule I know better than most. But somehow the new Brexit establishment which runs our country thinks they should be exempt.

Those who campaigned for Brexit did win and now they are duty bound to deliver on their promises. With victory and power comes accountability. So next October, when Theresa May and David Davis submit their Brexit deal to parliament, MPs of all parties, regardless of whether they voted Leave or Remain, must judge whether it comes to close to the promises which were made to their constituents.

If it does not, then MPs have little choice but to reject the deal. To do anything else, would be to connive in one of the greatest con tricks of modern times.

Does that mean that the UK will pull out of UNESCO too?

You know about the ongoing row going on between UNESCO and Liverpool City Council and their UNESCO status for the waterfront don't you?

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-could-lose-unesco-world-13208542.amp
Liverpool could lose UNESCO World Heritage status next year

The World Heritage Centre is reported to have issued an ultimatum over plans to renovate the waterfront

Great reason for BrUNESit... Those foreigners coming over here and telling us we can't build and much protect our heritage...

Sam Coates Times @ Samcoatestimes
Interesting analysis

Lawrence Freedman @ LawDavF
Both sides in Brexit negotiations weak in different ways. UK government divided, illusions shattered, casting about for a way forward 1/
EU weakness reflected in inability to move from an inflexible position for fear that any movement would expose differences among the 27 2/.
In negotiating terms most problematic is EU demand for early agreement on a financial settlement. /3
Normally this is the last thing to be agreed when an overall deal can be evaluated 4/.
Formality, legality, transparency of EU approach precludes sort of backdoor deals that are essential to get out of this sort of deadlock 5/
While the UK may have most to lose in economic terms the damage to the 27 of hard Brexit would hardly be trivial.6/
But the EU lacks any agreed plan for a soft Brexit. FOM will still be big issue. 7/
Brexit largely dismissed as UK foolishness in EU countries, with some opportunities to grab business. No focus yet on negatives./8
Merkel still forming coalition, Rajoy distracted, and Macron with busy agenda no obvious source of diplomatic creativity. /9
HMG now finds - no surprise - that concessions are pocketed by EU without much in return./10
As really hard choices become unavoidable can they be addressed without (yet another) major political crisis in UK? /end

Who is Lawrence Freedman?

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Freedman
Sir Lawrence David Freedman, KCMG, CBE, PC, FBA (born 7 December 1948) is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. He has been described as the "dean of British strategic studies", and is a member of the Iraq Inquiry.

Labour seem to have Corbyn to speak for the young.
The Tories have, errrrr....
And the LDs have
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-41601876
Lord Storey, 68, is Lib Dem young people's spokesman

Any idea why the young are kinda pissed atm? Na I can't think of any reason at all.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/george-osborne-the-politically-homeless-ex-chancellor/
George Osborne: the politically homeless ex-chancellor

But as he attacked Brexit, albeit diplomatically (he mentioned neither Theresa May nor Philip Hammond by name) and spoke in favour of immigration, he made plain his centrist views. Notably, at one point he corrected a mention of the Tory party as ‘your party’ and said the Conservatives have ‘moved away’ from him, even if he does remain a member.

Are you youth if you're younger than the party leader?

news.sky.com/story/amp/hostile-tory-rebels-force-no-10-to-delay-flagship-brexit-bill-11077953
Hostile Tory rebels force No 10 to delay flagship Brexit bill

In total 300 amendments and 54 new clauses have been tabled to the bill, which transfers European law onto the domestic statute book after Brexit, underlining the resistance within the Commons from both opposition parties and some Conservative MPs.

Thirteen amendments have enough support from Conservative MPs to overturn Theresa May's working majority of 13, which is causing obvious headaches for chief whip Gavin Williamson.

And

Ten Tory rebels are also backing an amendment demanding that the final Brexit deal be approved by parliamentary statute, which would give MPs the ability to propose changes to the deal: to date the Government has only agreed to give parliament a vote on the final Brexit deal.

And once it gets through the Commons, the Lords get to tear shreads into it

@StopBrexitMarch

We're in touch with the organisers of this. Hoping to help out. Fully supportive.
Remainers on strike and protesting, Monday Dec 11th!

Not sure if this is a general strike?

@No10Vigil
#No10Vigil needs you to get involved. Saturday at 2pm for rally, but more recruits for the weeks that follow. #StopBrexit #bollockstobrexit

Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays 5.30-9.00 pm.

I hate to say it, but I don't think Remainers striking for Brexit will be terribly successful. There won't be enough take up and it could look very churlish. There was an idea floated to get EU nationals in the UK to withdraw their labour for a day earlier this year - it could have been a very powerful statement on how much we rely on EU nationals in this country - but it didn't really happen.