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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Holliewantstobehot · 11/10/2017 23:31

Perhaps we are edging towards the tipping point where some politicians are realising it could be more damaging to their careers/party to not criticise brexit. Especially now no deal is being floated as an actual possibility.

Holliewantstobehot · 11/10/2017 23:34

Had a thought about the MP wanting university brexit course materials. Maybe the government is hoping for a batch of essays entitled 'How would you solve the current issues preventing progress in the Brexit talks?' Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 23:43

Maybe they need a kindergarten book; Brexit '`paint by numbers" or "join the dots"

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 00:18

Perhaps we are edging towards the tipping point where some politicians are realising it could be more damaging to their careers/party to not criticise brexit.

This but in two different directions: some distancing to say they want nothing to do with it and some distancing to say that we aren't going far enough or doing Brexit harshly enough. Depends on which side of the flip before ref these politicians were. Hence Johnson v Hammond.

This trying to let May take the fall is only going to get worse. They might not have the guts to get rid or her but they sure as hell don't want to be associated with her either.

No matter how much they fear other things, I don't see this situation as sustainable for 18 months. There will be a crunch point at some point. And then panic will set in with whichever side thinks they are losing.

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RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 00:24

Border inline because:

Julie Owen Moylan @ JulieOwenMoylan
Interesting aside from @Peston that Eurotunnel telling Gov they don't have any land to put new customs stuff on.

Which town wants the new British Sangatte? Brexit opportunities for employment available.

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RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 00:34

Jennifer Williams @ jenwilliamsMEN
T May in Manchester tomorrow to announce housing deal
Housing deal may or may not have been sealed but gist seems to be flexibility over various pots of housebuilding £
So eg HCA cash, GM housing fund, various other pots of money. If GM had it all together with fewer restrictions it could do more
With noting this was basically what Sean Anstee was calling for in the mayoral election [rtb: defeated Tory candidate]
Secondly money for homelessness hubs that was originally announced six months ago but hadn't come through
Although looks inexplicably £700k short by my maths
This was anticipated for a full announcement at Tory conference but for whatever reason didn't materialise
Anyway point is the government is coming north to say housing things, very shortly after it was here 5 minutes ago for conference
In case anyone missed it: housing is now the thing. And about time.

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mathanxiety · 12/10/2017 04:22

Somerville - I would contact the Irish embassy and ask them if it would be possible for them to provide your school with a clarification of GFA terms as they relate to passport choice and national identity choice of NI citizens, maybe contact the NI Ombudsman's office, and look into hiring a solicitor.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 12/10/2017 06:25

Perhaps we are edging towards the tipping point where some politicians are realising it could be more damaging to their careers/party to not criticise brexit. Especially now no deal is being floated as an actual possibility.

I wouldn’t bank on it. Hunt and Truss are now patriots. www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/11/how-remain-voting-tories-responded-to-new-referendum-question

PattyPenguin · 12/10/2017 06:50

BBC Business news
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41581705

It starts:
"The UK and EU have formally set out plans for World Trade Organization commitments post-Brexit, but they have already been opposed by some countries.
The issue is about how much of certain goods can be imported at reduced tariffs after Brexit.
These quotas currently apply to imports anywhere in the EU.
But seven nations, including the US and Canada, have already made it clear that they think plans to divide existing quotas will put them at a disadvantage."

Then there's a clear explanation of the situation, then:

"It's also interesting to note which countries have raised the objection in the WTO. They include three that have been identified as leading candidates for free-trade deals with the UK post-Brexit: the US, Canada and New Zealand.
Their objections to the specific proposals on tariff rate quotas certainly don't mean they will be unwilling to do deals. But it is a reminder that they can be expected to negotiate vigorously to promote their own national interests."

TheElementsSong · 12/10/2017 07:12

The public won't believe any of these until they have actually happened (and of course they'll blame the EU and the treacherous Remainers)

Well, that's been the narrative since Day 1, so at least we have some consistency there Grin

Looking at recent posts from Brexiteers shows their position is unchanged.

⭐️ We are ineluctably destined for pure glory as befits our God-given status as the greatest nation ever created, as we are freed from the unelected dictatorship of the EU who have been holding us back (don't mention being the Sick Man of Europe before we joined).

⭐️ Nothing bad has, or will, happen because of Brexit - any reports to that effect are [sic] bias. At the same time (try to keep up), any bad things that do happen are entirely because of Unbelieving Traitorous Willing by Remoaners, Bullying and Punishment by the evil EU and the rest of the universe.

⭐️ Every single Leave vote was cast on the basis of full and complete understanding of every possible implication and permutation of Brexit that could ever happen, every possible consequence was fully foreseen and expected (except the rise in racist incidents, which is probably fake news anyway). Any suggestion otherwise is the vilest attack on Leave voters and a form of hate speech. All Leave voters entirely predicted every event since June 23rd 2016 (even the F falling off the wall), and crucially every event has been part of a Good Brexit going completely to their plan. And it's all going wonderfully as intended - EURATOM, Open Skies, WTO terms and all.

⭐️ Except the bit about Remoaners Making Brexit Hard by Not Believing, and the EU Bullying and Punishing us, of course. (That bit was clouded in the crystal ball by our malign forces.) So if it all goes wrong (even though it can't go wrong, see above) it's obviously our fault Grin

mathanxiety · 12/10/2017 07:32

The GFA was put in place on the back of two referenda, one in NI and one in Ireland.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 12/10/2017 07:32

Pretty much. But don't forget:

Star the whole issue was settled in the 2017 GE when 80% of the voters endorsed Brexit.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 07:51

Math You know that Irish votes don't count
Or NI would never have been split off from Ireland in 1922 - there would just have been one independent country of Ireland

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 08:18

Hard Brexit with no trade deal 'would cost UK economy £400bn by 2030

< but the EU is NOT harmed significantly >

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-hard-no-trade-deal-agreement-leave-eu-single-market-uk-economy-cost-400-billion-pounds-a7994731.html

A study by Dutch banking and financial services company, Rabobank has found that .......

if the UK left the EU in 2019 with a hard Brexit and no transition period,
the UK economy would immediately fall into a two-year recession and
result in 18 per cent loss of GDP growth by the end of the next decade.

The other two scenarios covered in the report [An FTA or staying in the SM but not the CU] would also lead to a recession,
but it would be milder and more short-lived.

For the EU, whether or not the UK makes a trade deal or stays in the single market,
Brexit will result in a cumulative loss of 2 per cent of GDP by 2024, the bank predicts.

< an amount easy to compensate for .... especially because they still have all teir other trade deals, agencies, floghts ...>

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 08:19

Agrees with the World Bank study of serious harm to the UK

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 08:54

Nick Robinson @ bbcnickrobinson
Extraordinary attack on @PhilipHammondUK in the Mail which will make him more popular with Remainers & big business and harder to move

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TheElementsSong · 12/10/2017 08:54

Agrees with the World Bank study of serious harm to the UK

Fake News, Bullying/Punishment, Talking Britain Down, etc etc.

Peregrina · 12/10/2017 09:01

and of course they'll blame the EU and the treacherous Remainers

Yes, but the public might not buy it. Remember how between the summer of 2016 to just before the June election, the press was virulently ant-Corbyn and still pro UKIP. They didn't fully catch the extent of Momentum building, and dismissed them, to be completely taken by surprise when far from a wipe out, Labour won 30 seats. Nor did they catch the demise of UKIP although that was pretty clear from the Sleaford by-election last Autumn.

thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 09:14

The ridiculous Daily Mail.

In London, at least, the Hard Brexit nonsense is costing them dear. I get a real sense that patience for propaganda over data has gone. That's just from former Conservatives/people working in the City who are beyond tired of boggling at the madness.

Perhaps they can sack Philip Hammond and give him a newly-created post in which he takes full-time responsibility for going around to business and apologising and also reminding them that they have to be very, very scared of Corbyn? Because Corbyn might do something scary. Unlike the current government, who are crashing the economy.

It looks as though the Conservatives need someone to do that.

He's like an adult among children. Which is why it was his job to do the apologising at Conference.

HashiAsLarry · 12/10/2017 09:29

Currently and for quite a while previously there's a good rule of thumb that says if the dm is attacking a politician they're likely to be doing a good job.

HashiAsLarry · 12/10/2017 09:29

Currently and for quite a while previously there's a good rule of thumb that says if the dm is attacking a politician they're likely to be doing a good job.

HashiAsLarry · 12/10/2017 09:29

Currently and for quite a while previously there's a good rule of thumb that says if the dm is attacking a politician they're likely to be doing a good job.

HashiAsLarry · 12/10/2017 09:29

Currently and for quite a while previously there's a good rule of thumb that says if the dm is attacking a politician they're likely to be doing a good job.

HashiAsLarry · 12/10/2017 09:30

Apologies for the 27 posts there. Not sure how that happened. My pad clearly feels strong on that subject Shock

thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 09:31

I wonder if Brexit is going to make the Daily Mail jump the shark. And I wonder if we'd notice when it did?

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