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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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LurkingHusband · 12/10/2017 10:47

Theresa May piles pressure on Brussels by revealing detailed plans for walking away with ‘no deal’ on Brexit

Someone forgot to tell Brussels, from my scanning of non-UK sources.

However, just so we know what else is on their plates to keep this momentous press release news below the fold:

  • The new Kindle "Oasis" from Amazon is waterproof
  • 75% of all honey in the world is contaminated with pesticides
  • Michel Houellebecq is backing Germany at the Frankfurt book fair (dissing her own native France)
  • Paris could ban cars by 2030
  • Macron launches an employment/training initiative

But "Brexit" ... not a squeak. Theresa did put the right postage on her letter ? Or are they having to wait for the ink to dry on vellum before rolling it up and sending it with a footman ?

thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 10:59

... and, of course, everyone now knows (as if they didn't before) that no money is available to fund the 'detailed plans' for walking away with no deal. Plus the World Bank and others have laid out - with the clarity of those who aren't interested in lying to Daily Mail readers appeasing a volatile electorate and placating a split party - the staggeringly destructive costs of 'no deal'.

It's actually embarrassing. And we all know the real talks are scheduled for December. This is just a. posturing for the home market b. utter blustering.

Totally embarrassing.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2017 11:00

Perhaps they can sack Philip Hammond and give him a newly-created post in which he takes full-time responsibility for going around to business and apologising and also reminding them that they have to be very, very scared of Corbyn? Because Corbyn might do something scary.

Did you know that the majority of City Traders under 35 voted Labour at the GE?

There's less fear of Corbyn in the City than the Tories would have you believe.

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thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 11:06

I know, RTB. I went out canvassing in a City-employee-heavy area in the last GE. I'd get chatting with people, they'd tell me they usually voted Conservative, and they'd then say: "But Brexit ..." and we'd laugh, and I'd point out that the Labour candidate was strongly pro-Remain. Guess who won, with an increased majority?

My post was referring to poor old Hammond's recent role of using private dinner speeches to basically grovel and try and terrify businesses about what Corbyn might do, and his speech.

The word 'desperate' comes to mind.

It's utterly bizarre to see that his grip on reality is causing massive upset with the Daily Mail section of the Conservative Party members and voters. And it's interesting, frankly, because I would guess that therein lies a huge problem: It's a disjunction between a serious number of their donors and a large rump of their voters.

thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 11:13

I also think it's interesting that the Conservatives increasingly look as though they are losing control of the narrative. We all know that business were told they had to keep quiet with their concerns, or lose access. Well, I think the last three months have seen businesses increasingly going public. The message to be drawn from that is an astonishing loss of trust in the current government. I keep saying that is a huge story in and of itself - not lots of little, disconnected stories about individual sectors expressing concerns.

So far, it hasn't hit the mass media. The Daily Mail, in particular (especially with the 'Ditch Hammond' nonsense) are still pushing the fantasy (behind which lurk the ultra-right). I really do wonder how long that can go on.

Behind the scenes, the Conservative Party must be utterly spooked about their loss of credibility for business - and their hostage-status to the fantasists.

LurkingHusband · 12/10/2017 11:26

Behind the scenes, the Conservative Party must be utterly spooked about their loss of credibility for business

But there's a large rump (word chosen carefully) of the Conservative party which doesn't give a shit about the rather seedy, grubby world of other peoples business and really wants to preserve and leverage the privilege of ages Jacob Rees Mogg. ("I want other people to work and give the money to me.")

The David Camerons of this world should/would be horrified at the Conservative party losing it's business head to it's reactionary heart, but there it is. It's interesting to speculate where Mrs. Thatcher would have been on Brexit (a hypothetical, since she would never have been so fucking stupid to allow the shittest referendum since two lions and a lamb voted on what to have for dinner). I suspect she may already be in France, having spun out of her grave, and under the channel. Which is quite ironic, because in life, the one thing she was never accused of was being boring.

LurkingHusband · 12/10/2017 11:27

I also think it's interesting that the Conservatives increasingly look as though they are losing control of the narrative.

Has the OED amended the past participle of "to lose" from "lost" to "looking" ?

thecatfromjapan · 12/10/2017 11:29

Grin All I can do is laugh ruefully at those posts, LH . I particularly liked the paragraph about Margaret Thatcher.

Badders08 · 12/10/2017 11:31

😂

LurkingHusband · 12/10/2017 11:36

If I were involved in political media strategy, I'd pit the messianic way almost all Brexiteers hold Mrs Thatcher in (which is a lot easier when she's dead) and show that in actual fact she would never have let them anywhere near cabinet, and certainly would not have boxed herself in with them.

It was Major that started to have problems. Suggesting his naivete let the leash slip a bit (famously Redwood). Still, fair play to the guy - he put his money where his mouth was, and forced the issue.

Schadenfreude: ( n .) a word to describe the zero-sum game of enjoying the Conservative parties internecine travails, whilst watching the UK go down the shitter.

Badders08 · 12/10/2017 11:39

My dh is convinced brexit won't happen...

IdontlooklikeEmmaWatson · 12/10/2017 11:39

"Someone forgot to tell Brussels, from my scanning of non-UK sources."
FAZ (frankfurter Allgemeine) is a pretty business heavy 'paper.

There is NO news story on Brexit on their extensive front webpage
There is an incy windy link at the bottom of the page but no news articles.

Germans (and German business) really don't seem to give a hoot. Quite a refreshing change from the war mongering 'us and them' narrative in UK media.

prettybird · 12/10/2017 11:40

Badders - so is mine. Grin

LurkingHusband · 12/10/2017 11:41

Our DS actually wanted to see Cameron talk at our local school in 2009, at a Cameron direct. So we went. (Like all Cameron direct talks it was captured on video. Unlike all other Cameron direct talks it did not get put on the Conservative Party website ...)

He spoke for nearly an hour, and one thing I can't dismiss is that he genuinely and sincerely believed that the UK needed to be in the EU, and that the UK entire history as the "U"K was predicated on trading around the world. If it was an act, he was in the wrong job.

So we return to the mystery ... why didn't he say what he said then in the referendum ? Like the Home Office, the Conservative party seems to have a "Stepford Wives" effect on all who enter.

At the risk of terrible bad taste, I wonder what's in the Kool Aid, and more importantly, where their Jonestown is ?

Badders08 · 12/10/2017 11:42

It would be the first time he was right about anything ever 🤔😂

prettybird · 12/10/2017 11:44

since two lions and a lamb voted on what to have for dinner

That made me LOL Grin

prettybird · 12/10/2017 11:46

It's ok Badders - my dh is always right GrinWink

Badders08 · 12/10/2017 11:47

😁

lonelyplanetmum · 12/10/2017 12:13

A typo in the Independent ( I hope)

Mr Davis also confirmed that the UK was "planning for all outcomes" – including a no-dead scenario.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-michel-barnier-disturbing-deadlock-david-davis-brussels-latest-a7996326.html

lonelyplanetmum · 12/10/2017 12:17

Blimey they were quick- it’s just been corrected!

Badders08 · 12/10/2017 12:22

MB totally contradicting DD atm....

lonelyplanetmum · 12/10/2017 12:22

Screen shot!

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 12:55

Industry Report: Impact of Brexit on Fresh Veg & Fruit

The Uk imports 50 percent of its vegetables, 90 percent of its fruit.

Total imports are 5.6 million tons p.a., with 55% from the E27, compared to only 2.2 million tons produced in the UK

Then there are all the imports of meat, dairy and their products

Even the non-EU imports can't enter if the ports are clogged up.

http://freshfel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/20170803-Freshfel-Inventory-for-BREXIT-negotiations.pdf

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 12:55

Industry Report: Impact of Brexit on Fresh Veg & Fruit

The Uk imports 50 percent of its vegetables, 90 percent of its fruit.

Total imports are 5.6 million tons p.a., with 55% from the E27, compared to only 2.2 million tons produced in the UK

Then there are all the imports of meat, dairy and their products

Even the non-EU imports can't enter if the ports are clogged up.

http://freshfel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/20170803-Freshfel-Inventory-for-BREXIT-negotiations.pdf

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2017 12:56

oops, ipad was so scared it posted that twice ! Blush