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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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LurkingHusband · 11/10/2017 18:11

2. “How long does the referendum remit last?” (A question which AR struggled to answer).

How long does any referendum remit last. After all, IndeRef was over 3 years ago now. Which is longer than ConGov 2015 lasted ????

OlennasWimple · 11/10/2017 18:14

As laudable as the Morgan / Loughton amendment is, it feels like a bit of window dressing. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Brexit would change the rules on family renunification (though I might just have missed something threatening exactly this), whilst even if it did there is always the option to grant leave outside the Rules on a discretionary basis for individual cases

OlennasWimple · 11/10/2017 18:17

I remember NI being discussed during the campaign, but concerns being pushed to one side with the implication being that there was a solution, it's just that no-one had really sat down to think about it properly yet.

I said back then that Brexit would create an impossible task IRO NI. Again, it's not particularly eddifying being proved right

LurkingHusband · 11/10/2017 18:27

Apropos of NI/GFA

does anyone recall back in 1998, any hint of debate/discussion/unease that the GFA was effectively predicated upon the UK never leaving the EU ?

What are the ramifications if it turns out - as it hits parliament - that the only way to get Brexit is to unpick the GFA first ?

What is the process required to do so ? Or can the UK unilaterally withdraw from it (accepting there will be UN criticism) ?

RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 18:46

Lurking the GFA was put in place on the back on of a referendum.

Surely for the UK to withdraw unilaterally in that context, another referendum would be required?

Difficult to do politically without one, I suspect.

(And given the level of support for the GFA and opposition to Brexit, I don't see how on earth that would work either).

This is quite separate to the issue of the suspended NI Assembly for this reason, in terms of direct rule and legitimacy.

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squishysquirmy · 11/10/2017 19:28

That's good news about the changes to Dutch citizenship laws, pointythings.
I wonder whether anything will be done for UK citizens settled in the Netherlands? I am worried on behalf of a family member who has made her life in the Netherlands (her dc was born there) because if things go really tits up, she might need an Dutch passport as well as a UK one.

pointythings · 11/10/2017 19:46

squishy I think the flexibility goes both ways, but your family member's DC might have to choose when they reach 18. It's all a little unclear - my DDs for instance were born here well before the whole Brexit fiasco. Technically speaking they are second generation immigrants into the UK so would have to choose - but by the time the legislation is in place, at least my oldest would already be 18. I imagine there will be some leeway for people already in the UK/already in the Netherlands with the new rules applying stringently to people arriving after Brexit is completed.

Oh how I still hope it is all binned... Sad

Peregrina · 11/10/2017 20:16

Another Orchestra leaving because of Brexit.

I thought that come Brexit, the whole world was going to be beating a path to our door, so where is the news of an international non-EU orchestra getting ready to move here?

woman11017 · 11/10/2017 20:40

@IanDunt
No-deal is political disaster porn for Brexit extremists

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/10/11/no-deal-is-political-disaster-porn-for-brexit-extremists

Listen to some nice music from an international orchestra before you read^

RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 21:07

Laura kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Difference btw May + Hammond on no deal cash-she said money could be spent before legislation (poss months away)-he said, 'very last moment'

As in, they could be saying the same thing in a different way to please two different audiences.... but the underlying point which is crucial: no money now

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RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 21:13

amp.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/11/long-lartin-prison-disturbance-breaks-out-at-high-security-jail
Long Lartin prison: 'disturbance' breaks out at high-security jail
Breaking news: prison officers dealing with ‘ongoing incident’ at jail where four people have been killed in four years

Spread sheet Phil about to have to cough up some money for prisons?

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RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 21:18

Harry Cole @ MrHarryCole
Uh oh. First Secretary of State just told Newsnight that Britain "would have been" better off if Remain had won. Not sure that's the line...

Someone's breaking rank against 'the will of the people mantra'? The will of the people has moved on?

Interesting someone not afraid to say it. Like rats from a sinking ship, if they see disaster looming they get off it.

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RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 21:26

Wall Street Journal on the legalities of a transition deal:

www.wsj.com/amp/articles/legal-intricacies-complicate-mays-two-year-brexit-transition-period-1507740671
Legal Intricacies Complicate May’s Two-Year Brexit Transition Period
Need to quickly devise sweeping agreements suggests it might be easier to extend the breakup deadline beyond 2019

The reality is that the only legally watertight transition deal that is guaranteed to enable trade to continue on “current terms” is an agreement to extend the Article 50 deadline. This can be done by unanimous decision of the member states. Of course, extending the UK’s EU membership beyond 2019 would be politically fatal for the current government, though it’s possible a majority would support it in parliament. It would also be politically toxic in the EU: There is a growing consensus that this is a bad marriage that just needs to end, says one senior EU diplomat. And extending Article 50 raises serious practical issues, including whether the U.K. would participate in EU parliamentary elections in 2019 and the next EU budget.

Let me phrase that another way: legally the only way to a smooth and orderly brexit is to say in the EU for at least another two years. Perhaps calling it something completely different and using phrases that suggest there is more than one Single market or customs union.

Wasn't there that comment that the EU would help May make a deal look 'presentationally' different...

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woman11017 · 11/10/2017 21:37

calling it something completely different
As Leave has no definition, it can mean whatever it is decided it means.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 21:39

The EU are most unlikely to agree to any extension which allows the UK to participate in the 2019 EU Parliamentary Elections.
They want rid of UKIP and Farage, to seriously weaken the hard right group in the EP

So, any extension would be on a "pay-but-no-say" basis
Presumably also the UK would still participate in some EU heads of govt meetings, but NOT any relating to the EU's future development

woman11017 · 11/10/2017 21:45

Sorry, just reposting this petition; it's nearly on 1million. Smile
www.change.org/p/free-nazanin-ratcliffe

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 21:48

The World Bank group issued a highly technical report analysing UK-E27 trade and Brexit

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/853811484835908129/pdf/WPS7947.pdf

They estimated the fall in the UK’s trade with the EU under 3 main scenarios

  • EEA, PTA (Preferential Trade Agreement), no deal / WTO :

Drop in Trade …….. EEA ………..PTA…….. no-deal
Goods……………….. ‐12%……… ‐38%……. ‐50%
Services ……………. ‐16% …….. ‐48% ……. ‐62%

Remember, about 50% of Uk exports are to the E27, whereas 16% of the E27 exports are to the Uk.
So pain shared very unevenly.

And only the UK loses all its trade deals with the rest of the world too,
has to build several agencies from scratch, has to negotiate rights to fly with the E27 and the RoW.

OlennasWimple · 11/10/2017 22:06

Lurking - back in 1997/98 no one would have given any serious consideration to the idea that one of the parties to the GFA would leave the EU.

In terms of unpicking it, it would depend what was being changed. IIRC the problems thrown up by Brexit are more to do with the spirit of the Agreement rather than the letter of it (any discussion of the border is in the context of cross-border co-operation, for example)

IdontlooklikeEmmaWatson · 11/10/2017 22:06

"Hammond not giving money to the Brexit ministers to prepare, almost sets us up for a situation where its Deal or revoke a50 at the last moment. "

"Brexit: Philip Hammond becomes first Cabinet minister to admit 'no deal' could ground all flights"
i'm starting to like this guy Hammond.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 22:11

Flights

I've read that BA's post-Brexit plan is to split off flights to /from the E27 into a new company with its HQ and 1,000s of related jobs located there.

Reminder from April about other airlines:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/06/ryanair-uk-flights-brexit-deal-wto
.....
Ryanair’s UK flights were only 2% of its business.
"The decision may be not to go for an AOC but just abandon UK domestic flying.”

Like all other airlines, Ryanair schedules aircraft 12 months in advance,
which means it would need to know the probable regulatory regime by next March to ensure continuity.

Asked whether it was not flexible enough as a business to move planes back to the UK in the event of a last-minute deal, Sorahan said:

“It would be difficult as we would have contracts with airports in Europe” months before.

Ryanair had planned to grow by about 15% in the UK last year but had instead posted growth of about 6%.
“Ryanair is pivoting its growth away from the UK,”
.....
Brexit has already forced other airlines such as easyJet into moving aircraft to enable continuity of business.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 22:22

So even if there is a deal on Open Skies, the govt must complete this by March next year
or there would be a period during which people couldn't book flights, whether for holiday or business. Probably to any country, not just the E27
Remember - the return journey would also have to be before 30 March 2019

If that happens, it would be the first concrete warning that Brexit might not go smoothly
I don't know if that would cause much panic - holidays aren't essential and the govt would hastily organise a deal so that flihts could be booked again
Also, I think some bilateral arrangements might still be valid, e.g. the 1960s deal with the Netherlands, maybe the RoI

However, if a deal is made after next March - so too late - people would still be unable to book flights for the "gap" from 31 March 2019, due to the 12 month minimum notice for aircraft ordering

Whoever in govt is responsible for negotiating Open Skies extensions had better get their skates on

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 22:33

Regardless of how friendly Trump is - if he remembers his friend May - the powerful Irish lobby in the US would hammer the UK if the govt reneges on GFA terms or guarantees.

Uk politicians have always claimed the UK "punches above its weight"
Well the RoI certainly does , wrt its influence in the USA, since the 1970s, leading to the irresistible US pressure for Britain to negotiate an agreement with Sinn Fein.
I'd expect the RoI to use their political clout effectively again - probably they've already started on Congress, where few members of the Congress or Senator dare offend the powerful Irish American lobby

And in the Brexit negotiations, the RoI is a key player, responsible for making the NI border one of the 3 prerequisites before trade talks can start.
They can use their veto and most other countries are very sympathetic to their situation, so they could likely sway carry QMV (Qualified Majority Voting) decisions too.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 22:39

(paywall) Theresa May piles pressure on Brussels by revealing detailed plans for walking away with ‘no deal’ on Brexit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/09/theresa-may-piles-pressure-brussels-revealing-detailed-plans/

Theresa May has revealed detailed plans for quitting the EU with “no deal” in a move designed to pile pressure on Brussels to begin trade talks.

The Prime Minister decided to “focus minds” by publishing draft legislation showing how the UK will implement independent trade and customs arrangements from “day one” after Brexit in March 2019.
....
White papers published on Monday on customs and trade made it clear that Britain would trade under World Trade Organisation rules if it left without a deal,
and would set its own tariffs and taxes on goods,
as well as moving borders inland to avoid queues at ports.

It also emerged that the Department for International Trade < oh god help the UK - that's Fox >
has set up a planning unit dubbed “Project After”
which is putting forward radical options including dropping all trade tariffs and joining a trade pact focussed on Asia.
< Uk to become Singapore West ?>

thecatfromjapan · 11/10/2017 22:45

BigChoc That World Bank report is scary.

I remember the experts coming onto MN pre-Referendum and talking about a worst case scenario of losing 10% trade etc.

According to that World Bank report, the best case scenario is worse than that. Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2017 23:14

The public won't believe any of these until they have actually happened
(and of course they'll blame the EU and the treacherous Remainers)

That's why responsible MPs of all parties must band together to make sure it doesn't happen