Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
lonelyplanetmum · 11/10/2017 11:58

Somerville as the school will qualify for charitable status, do the charity commission provide guidance about how discrimination rules
apply.

Cailleach1 · 11/10/2017 12:00

How stressful they are making you battle over something you should not have to argue, Somerville. It should be GFA, QED.

However, if the Home Office are making life difficult and forcing people take to lawyers in order to clarify their status, maybe it is not surprising a school is discriminating and completely ignoring the parity of rights and esteem the GFA underpinned. I imagine Arlene and the DUPers are loving this climate.

I understand the entitlement to a status of a British citizen is a fallback. Nevertheless, the principle was upheld that people from NI did not have to acquire a British identity and could be solely Irish. If the UK recognises two nationalities in it's jurisdiction, it should protect the rights of both equally.

woman11017 · 11/10/2017 12:46

Flowers Somerville so sorry you have this stress.

Cailleach1 as you flagged up that case in NI of fellow re his passport, do you know any good NI organisations/ lawyers/ EU counterparts who might be useful in this case?

DrivenToDespair · 11/10/2017 12:47

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

TheElementsSong · 11/10/2017 15:15

Flowers Somerville what a stressful and crap situation to be thrown into.

Somerville · 11/10/2017 15:58

Thanks for the sympathy and suggestions, for what I know is very much a first world problem, even when it comes to discrimination. Am busy following up suggestions from this thread and PM's Flowers

Mistigri · 11/10/2017 16:05

Somerville that's astonishing. Having a right to citizenship and having a passport are two different things. The right exists independently of the passport.

My DS's UK passport will expire shortly and we won't get him another but he will remain a British citizen. I would considering offering the school evidence of your right to UK citizenship, perhaps with a supporting letter from a solicitor. And maybe get hold of the schools charitable status documents to see if they are acting in accordance with their charitable status, and if not [threaten to] contact the charities commission.

OlennasWimple · 11/10/2017 16:16

That visa case should never have got to needing to go to court.

The immigration rules require the sponsor of the fiance(e) visa applicant to be either a British citizen or permanently settled in the UK. I suspect very much that the case worker mishandled it because the sponsor didn't meet the criteria of being a British citizen and had a foreign passport without a stamp in it giving indefinite leave to remain, so it looked like a straightforward refusal on technical grounds. But clearly that was wrong, and a simple review of the refusal should have corrected this.

Somerville - I think any legal challenge to your DS's school's policy would turn on the reasons for it, so you need to get them to put something in writing about why the scholarship criteria now includes a parent having a British passport.

OlennasWimple · 11/10/2017 16:17

Meanwhile, in lighter news, Brisket Means Brisket!

GBK's new promotion includes giving away burgers to customers with an EU passport Smile

LurkingHusband · 11/10/2017 16:21

Having just sampled the delight that is Beef Cheek (in Guinness) I could be tempted by brisket ...

Theworldisfullofidiots · 11/10/2017 16:27

Brisket is lovely. My kids love it.

woman11017 · 11/10/2017 16:37

Seems a bit of tetchiness on sister threads, with usual erudite visitors.Wink When their brexit is falling apart further, they seem to clock on.

@bbclaurak
Why the tetchiness about the Brexit billions? Whispers of a 'robust' discussion on the issue at Cabinet yday

The great Shappi Khorsandi joined the protest to free Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, and BJ has deigned to intervene.

@ShappiKhorsandi

Shappi Khorsandi Retweeted Kamran Foroughi
I'll always stand by yourself and Richard Ratcliffe while your precious ones suffer in Iranian jails. Such injustice and cruelty. Solidarity

LurkingHusband · 11/10/2017 16:56

When their brexit is falling apart further,

Which is daily.

Since I mentioned it a while back (that the ratio of bad news/good news made Brexit an arithmetic impossibility) we've had 3 more weeks - thats 21 days - when every single day has thrown up another negative about Brexit.

But on balance, the good news has been ...

(This page has been intentionally left blank)

TheElementsSong · 11/10/2017 16:59

But on balance, the good news has been ...

Apparently, it's a leftie media to hide all the marvellous Brexit news.

LurkingHusband · 11/10/2017 17:07

Apparently, it's a leftie media to hide all the marvellous Brexit news.

That's be the Express and the Mail then ?

HashiAsLarry · 11/10/2017 17:07

Of course, that well known leftie daily mail is forever hiding good news stories about brexit. Ffs.

RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:08

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/philip-hammond-brexit-no-deal-ground-all-flights-uk-eu-airports-travel-european-union-a7994191.html
Brexit: Philip Hammond becomes first Cabinet minister to admit 'no deal' could ground all flights

Adam Fleming‏ @adamfleming
Understand EU27 officials postponed meeting today to review progress in this week’s #Brexit talks because progress less than expected

OP posts:
pointythings · 11/10/2017 17:18

some hope for me and the DDs here at least

I voted for D66 because allowing dual nationality was one of their policies. EU countries need to take steps to protect their citizens in the UK. I wonder whether to an extent this is the Netherlands telling the UK that they do not trust the UK to do right by their citizens - naturalised or not.

RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:22

Kevin Schofield‏ @PolhomeEditor
Jeremy Corbyn spokesman reveals Labour would vote against a 'no deal' Brexit in the Commons. Hard to see how the Govt would get it through.

So we are 'preparing' for a No Deal without the money to put in to practice the infrastructure for a No Deal (impossible to prepare in the time and without money). And to opt for a No Deal - which we haven't prepared for - it has to be approved by parliament.

I don't think Tory Rebels would support the government on that one - whether in public or in private.

And I certainly don't think that the EU - who are also not preparing for a No Deal situation - are fooled by the 'we are going to no deal' talk as being anything else but talk.

That means that a No Deal situation couldn't be approved. (In theory at least). It could only be an 'accidental' Brexit, in which we simply default without a deal. At which point you'd have to ask whether that was even lawful and in line with our constitution.

Hammond not giving money to the Brexit ministers to prepare, almost sets us up for a situation where its Deal or revoke a50 at the last moment.

Brexit by being painted into a corner rather than any leadership whatsoever.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:41

Siobhán Fenton‏*@SiobhanFenton*

MPs on the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee are currently hearing evidence from experts on the impact of Brexit on the border
Important to remember that as Sinn Féin MPs do not take their seats, only unionist MPs represent Northern Ireland at Westminster presently
These are of course the DUP's 10 MPs who are ardently pro-Brexit, but also independent unionist MP Lady Sylvia Hermon who is anti-Brexit
So Northern Ireland (despite voting Remain overall), is represented by one Remain MP and 10 Leave MPs
Legal academic Sylvia de Mars tells the committee that talk of a border structure is misleading, as infrastructure will be required not...
... only at the border but elsewhere "there will have to be depots, where things can be checked, if there are any regulatory changes"
Economist Paul McFlynn tells the committee that if NI is subject to new regulatory rules, Stormont won't have a say as issue isn't devolved
DUP MP Jim Shannon asks the experts to be more optimistic about Brexit "we need to have a positive attitude, I'm a glass half full person"
Economist Paul Mac Flynn- "I'm all for flexible & imaginative solutions but not illusory ones"
Labour MP and Leave campaigner Kate Hoey asks if people in Republic of Ireland are manipulating Brexit to try to get united Ireland?
(Kate Hoey represents an English constituency but sits on the Northern Ireland committee. She's originally from County Antrim)
Economist Paul Mac Flynn says some may see opportunities here for Irish reunification, but that's a legitimate political aim
Labour MP Stephen Hepburn asks- if constituencies in England see NI get a special "cherry picking deal" in Brexit, but not rest of the UK...
... "are we going to be that much of a big supporter of Northern Ireland being in the UK?"
Legal academic Sylvia de Mars says there's 'misunderstanding' over how flexible EU can be on trade...
She says despite this EU has shown willingness to be flexible in the past. Cites Bosnia and Croatia's tailor made policy from EU over border
Economist Paul Mac Flynn says Greenland is part of Denmark and isn't in customs union but this largely works as they mirror same rules
Economist Paul Mac Flynn tells MPs they must consider the impact of a potential drop in immigration to Northern Ireland after Brexit
He says Northern Ireland has particular benefits from immigration as immigrants are more likely to work/ be higher skilled, which NI needs
(Not clear if that 'more likely' comparator references non-immigrants in NI v immigrants in NI, or immigrants to rest of UK v those to NI)
Dr Katy Hayward, political sociologist from Queen's University Belfast, cites ambiguity over what rights Irish passport holders in NI will..
... have after Brexit. Good Friday Agreement guarantees right to identify as British/ Irish/ both. Little details on future for Irish in NI

Bosnia / Croatia border as an example... JESUS CHRIST. Having been sat at the border on the Bosnian side, in the 'express lane' for the EU passports for over an hour and seen the tailbacks of non-EU passports and lorries which must have been 2 or 3 times longer...

And poor NI. Not only are only the DUP representing them in parliament, but Katie Fucking Hoey is on the NI select committee!

Rupert Myers‏***@RupertMyers*

People who tweet excitedly re. the Falklands (pop 3.3k) & Gibraltar (34.4k) where’s your concern over Northern Ireland (1.811m) & Brexit?
To some people the issue doesn’t “really matter”

John Redwood‏*@johnredwood*
Its a pity that so far the EU haven’t been prepared to talk to us about anything that really matters such as our future trading relationship

Rupert Myers‏ @RupertMyers
Northern Ireland’s concerns are being represented poorly at Westminster
When people do focus on NI, it’s often in a pretty odd way (via @rowena_kay)

Polly Toynbee‏ @pollytoynbee
DUP top priority will be soft border, saving Good Friday agreement and free movement across boundary. That absolutely rules out hard Brexit

Rupert Myers‏ @RupertMyers
Hammond today clear that govt can’t even decide on a NI border arrangement until we know what the new deal will be - that’s years away
We might not know what our border arrangement between Ireland & NI will be or if it will work until after we’ve left. That seems bold.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:45

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*
A Leaver tweets. (Thread.)

ps Don't be too hard on Leavers expressing doubts and concerns. Good that these voices not inhibited.

Oliver Norgrove‏ @OliverNorgrove
Now that I sit and think about things, I really can't believe how disgracefully overlooked Northern Ireland has been in relation to Brexit.
Both sides of the referendum divide are at fault. I just think in general, England, Wales and Scotland are guilty of forgetting them.
The worry now is that this lack of concern is turning into abject contempt. Try squaring a no deal Brexit with a solution for N.Ireland.
It isn't possible. Northern Ireland, despite the fact that it will require special status & island-specific protocols, is part of the UK.
Our politicians now pretend to stand up for Northern Ireland by claiming that the EU is unfairly using it as a cynical bargaining chip.
But what they overlook is just why Northern Ireland is a current barrier to the progress of negotiations. There is a useful reason for it.
Northern Ireland needs to be agreed first because the terms both sides are after (soft/wet border) aren't achievable within an FTA. Simple.
Free Trade Agreements don't transport checks from the jurisdiction of the border to the jurisdiction of the point of production.
Only the Single Market (and the EU) does that. It's a simple point about enforcement. If I sign an FTA with X I don't have invasive legal...
...jurisdiction in their internal affairs, so I check that they are conforming to standards at the border. It's common sense.
So if we want that soft border, which everybody does (including the EU), we will have to get a specific agreement done first, before an FTA.
That's why Northern Ireland belongs within the remit of the Article 50 period. It helps everybody: short term pain, long term gain.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:45

FWIW, I do agree with Norgrove that the Remain campaign ignored NI as much as the Leave campaign.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 17:58

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/11/conservative-mps-nicky-morgan-tim-loughton-brexit-retention-of-child-refugees-rights?CMP=share_btn_tw
Conservative MPs press for post-Brexit retention of child refugees' rights
Nicky Morgan and Tim Loughton aim to ensure UK law gives refugee children same rights to family reunification as EU law

Two leading Conservative ex-ministers from the remain and leave sides of the EU debate will push the government to commit to allowing refugee children to reunite with their families under post-Brexit immigration law.

Nicky Morgan, the former education secretary and a prominent remain supporter, and the former children’s minister Tim Loughton, who backed leave, have submitted an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that would ensure child refugees have the same rights to be reunited with family members in the UK as they currently have under EU law.

The amendment is likely to attract cross-party support. Liberal Democrat MPs Jo Swinson and Tom Brake and SNP MPs Stuart McDonald and Joanna Cherry said they would add their namesto the proposed amendment in the coming days, as will Labour MP Stella Creasy, who is also planning a wider amendment which would cover freedom of movement.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 18:01

Jessica Elgot‏*@jessicaelgot*
Hack to Tory MP leaving 1922 committee meeting - "any leadership bids?"
MP - "There's 300 leadership bids"
Gove was asked at 1922 committee tonight about own leadership ambitions. "I would not expect to be put through that again."

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2017 18:09

Simon the Stylite‏*@Sime0nStylites*

  1. Amidst the No Deal furore, I’m reminded of Eddie Mair’s very fine question to Amber Rudd.
  2. “How long does the referendum remit last?” (A question which AR struggled to answer).
  3. You can divide the question into 2 parts: (i) Brexit itself (ii) the shape of Brexit.
  4. (i) is easier to answer. The govt has a mandate to leave the EU that until we do or it’s the “will of the people” that we don’t.
  5. (Important point - the referendum was about leaving; it said nothing about rejoining.)
  6. (ii) Is more difficult. Let’s be clear, there is little if any democratic mandate for the “shape” of Brexit.
  7. Many people said many things during the ref campaign - Project Fear, SM yes/no, Switzerland, Sunlit Uplands, £350m for the NHS etc.
  8. Argue what u will about what either side said, the question was Leave v Remain not Leave - How. The question said nothing about “shape”.
  9. The closest we have to democratic validation of “shape” is Lanc Hse and then the subsequent GE.
10. If the GE had returned a Cons majority, then the govt could have asserted that it had a democratic mandate for its Brexit “shape’. 11. But it didn’t (although a weaker case can be made as a result of the alliance with the DUP). 12. But even if the govt did have a Lanc Hse mandate, what happens if that Brexit “shape” is unachievable? 13. Important to remember that Lanc Hse had 2 limbs - the 3 Red Lines AND a Deep/Frictionless trade arrangement.
OP posts:
Swipe left for the next trending thread