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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
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Peregrina · 10/10/2017 19:52

I've said all along that they're too unpleasant to get enough people to listen to them [Norths].

Which is something of a pity, because they have done a lot of research and have consistently made a case for the EEA/EFTA option. Which Farage etc. were more than happy to do, until they realised that it involved Freedom of Movement.

HashiAsLarry · 10/10/2017 19:58

I'm pretty sure Faisal Islam said something similar about them a few weeks back.

HashiAsLarry · 10/10/2017 19:59

The problem of course, when fishing in the brexiteers pond of those with sensible overarching views, is that I'm sure we've all stepped in deeper puddles.

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 20:29

LBC‏*@LBC*
Theresa May refused three times to say whether she would vote for Brexit if there was a referendum today l-bc.co/wPEQs4 #MayOnLBC

Tom Newton Dunn‏*@tnewtondunn*

Corbyn's 6 questions at PMQs tomorrow:
"Does the Prime Minister believe leaving the EU is the right decision for Britain?"
(repeat 6 times)

Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*

1. Can't help thinking May has made rather a lot of trouble for herself by not saying how she would vote if #euref ran again
2. Fairly or unfairly it gives impression she is not quite sure about her govts main policy
3. Would give Corbyn potential open goal at PMQs tmrw, if he hadn't also had doubts about his party's #euref position

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

Gosh.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 20:30

BALPA‏ @BALPApilots
UK aviation sector would be devastated by a Brexit ‘no deal'. The entire industry has said that we have to see evidence of the post-Brexit plan for aviation now if we are to avert a catastrophic crisis of confidence.

www.balpa.org/Media-Centre/Press-Releases/BALPA-says-a-Brexit-%E2%80%98no-deal%E2%80%99-would-spell-disaster

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 10/10/2017 20:58

The Brexit leaders are all - PN, Farage, Redwood, Gove etc - rightwing British nationalists who want to reduce immigration and expel most non-white immigrants.

The difference is that a few of them like the Norths are intelligent, with relevant experience of the EU and trade and have done a lot of research; they have probably more facts than anyone. I consider them to be the Brexit realist fringe.

Most other Brexiters are blinded by fanaticism and have never bothered to listen to any facts that conflict with their tunnel vision.
Their politicians have far better PR and networking skills than the Brexit realists, so they are the ones driving Brexit.

I take facts from R North - he gives sources to check - but I don't believe his political predictions are necessarily accurate, wrt that there will be no deal or a WTO one

The Norths, like other Brexit realists, are horrendously embarrassed and - as is often the case with angry rightwingers - once they see their plans going wrong, they project complete Götterdämmerung, rather than a mere (!) recession

I still rate it at least 50:50 that sufficient Tories will pull back from the brink, e.g. those 30 Tories who warned the whips they would block a WTO Brexit.
That would mean humiliation and capitulation on UK red lines, with a transition to EEA / EFTA on standard terms, except maybe adding services. Hence why I don't expect the UK climbdown until Christmas 2018 or even later.

btw, the rebellion & climbdown would also bring down May, if she is still there, or her successor if he/she is still ploughing the hard Brexit route.
Another reason why rebel Tories will hold off as long as possible - it probably means yet another leader and further damage to the Tory party

BigChocFrenzy · 10/10/2017 21:03

To clarify, my 50:50 is for a (new) PM right at the last moment to yell STOP.
Then shit themself until the E27 agree to stop the A50 clock - and they'll only do so on the understanding that this is to allow time to iron out the details of an off-the-shelf EEA Brexit. No more snowflake optouts.

prettybird · 10/10/2017 21:03

This year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics thinks that Brexit is evidence of a large number of people voting against their own self-interest Confused. I wonder what was the "nudge" that influenced them? Hmm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-thaler-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-2017-behavioural-economics-nudge-theory-a7990291.html

HashiAsLarry · 10/10/2017 21:07

@JolyonMaugham
I will push your family into poverty because of my irrational hatred of the ECJ. #ThingsNotOnTheBus
Retweeting
@JacobReesMogg
If Brexit means Brexit we must be free from the European Court. It is not 'pragmatic' to remain in the EU

This is pretty much what I think when someone gives the bullshit that they're happy for some economic turmoil for sunlit uplands. What they mean is were happy for you to be bankrupted for our undefined ideology.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/10/2017 21:10

Cambridge Analytica probably supplied the "nudge" - but the voters had been primed by decades of anti-immigrant and anti-EU hate media.

Plus somehow public discourse and voting has been dumbed down.
There really was more intelligent discussion back in the 1960s & 1970s.
And before: My late father, who had to leave school on his 14th birthday on the1930s, had far more factual & informed discussions with his peers thereafter, other young men & women with little formal education, than is usual now

BigChocFrenzy · 10/10/2017 21:21

If the EU despite the lack of progress do grant 2-year transition - on their terms - then there is a good chance this will be extended again. And again.

The EU won't mind: they would have the UK following the 4 freedoms and trading happily - they don't want their large neighbour to have an economic crash - but the E27 will be gaining jobs and business from firms gradually shifting away from the UK
The RoI can continue business as usual, no border issues.
Above all, the UK won't be able to block progress or demand optouts AND they'll be rid of Farage and all the UKIP MEPs

What's not to like about endless "transition" from their POV
Probably the best outcome for the UK, too

Holliewantstobehot · 10/10/2017 21:29

I wonder whether there have been some back room talks between the EU and Nick Clegg, Alistair Campbell etc; Junckers suggestion of an alternative to no deal could be us being on the outer fringe as Nick Clegg is suggesting. lf they were to offer us some kind of peripheral membership and the alternative was no deal maybe that would be grounds for a second referendum. In that our membership would differ from our current agreement. Clutching at straws maybe. Although I would rather be a full member I would compromise with an outer fringe membership.

I am shocked to see Helston job centre on the list of closures. The nearest centre will be Penzance which is 13 miles away and further for those who live on the Lizard. Or Falmouth also 13 miles away. Public transport is not cheap down here either and only bus service, no trains to Helston.

squishysquirmy · 10/10/2017 21:33

Chris Heaton-Harris MP has been politely requesting that Universities provide him with "the names of professors who are involved in the teaching of European affairs, with particular reference to Brexit".
He has also asked for copies of the syllabus, and links to all online lecture resources that relate to that area (presumably including lecture notes that are normally only provided to students who have paid thousands of pounds to be on the course).

Creepy.

BiglyBadgers · 10/10/2017 21:39

Just looked at Chris Heaton-Harris' Twitter and it is just a lot of really bad and slightly Hmm jokes. And I mean that quite literally. It is weird even for a conservative MP.

TheElementsSong · 10/10/2017 21:45

the names of professors who are involved in the teaching of European affairs, with particular reference to Brexit".

That is seriously creepy.

QuentinSummers · 10/10/2017 21:51

I listened to LBC today. Ian Dale and Nigel Farage. Utter brexiteer ridiculousness. Farage even said "tough - you lost" to a caller
Is LBC a Brexit propaganda station or is it ever worth a listen?

missmoon · 10/10/2017 21:52

the names of professors who are involved in the teaching of European affairs, with particular reference to Brexit

This is simply impossible. I know of many people in Cambridge alone who added a Brexit topic to their courses. This is ranging from Law, to Economics and other social sciences, Philosophy, Languages, to Management, etc. It's simply a very current topic. However, I agree that it is very creepy.

Holliewantstobehot · 10/10/2017 21:53

No Nige we've all lost. HTH.

HesterThrale · 10/10/2017 21:54

So this is the result of that Govt move to topload all parliamentary committees with Tories to 'speed things up'.
The Brexit Committee now has a Tory majority (with the DUP member). Great. And look at those Brexiter names:

^The Brexit Committee, formally the Exiting the EU Committee, remains at the fulcrum of the biggest single issue before this Parliament. Its chair remains the formidable Hilary Benn, and the membership looks pretty formidable too.
In the Conservative contingent you can find former Cabinet ministers John Whittingdale and Stephen Crabb, arch Brexiteers Chris Chope, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Peter Bone, plus former justice minister Jonathan Djanogly. It is rather more Brexit-ish contingent than before the election.
On the Labour side lurk some strong remainers - Emma Reynolds, Stephen Kinnock and Pat McFadden, but to have any impact they will need to work closely with MPs from the smaller parties.
The overall arithmetic is nine Conservatives, probably lining up with the DUP's Sammy Wilson, versus five ordinary Labour members, (the Chair Hilary Benn would only vote to break a tie) two SNP MPs, plus one Lib Dem and one from Plaid Cymru.
In other words, the Conservatives look to have a one-vote majority, if everyone turns up and the DUP remain onside. Their first inquiry in will scrutinise the progress of the Brexit negotiations.^

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-41527421

TheElementsSong · 10/10/2017 21:57

It's simply a very current topic.

I guess he just wants to ensure that there's no chance of UnBeLeaving elite experts "making Brexit hard" by disseminating unpatriotic thoughts - as we all know, Brexit will be a super-duper easy titanic success, as long as everybody "pulls together" and "gets behind" it in some mysteriously undefined way.

(BTW do you have a link about this, squishy?)

squishysquirmy · 10/10/2017 22:08

No link Elements. I heard about it from someone I know who works at a university who has seen the request and I have no reason not to believe him. It is likely that a similar request has been made to many unis though, in which case it might appear in the press eventually. (Maybe)

TheElementsSong · 10/10/2017 22:12

Thanks squishy I hope somebody leaks it soon...

squishysquirmy · 10/10/2017 22:19

Copy of the relevant bit of the letter:

I suspect he's worried about academics corrupting the youth or whatever.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
prettybird · 10/10/2017 22:23

There really was more intelligent discussion back in the 1960s & 1970s

We have lost the ability to discuss politics and to agree to disagree. Margaret Thatcher started that with her use of Bernard Ingham to "prime" public opinion but more significantly with the way she gave up any pretence of "consensus politics" (ie burying "One Nation Conservatives). However, Blair and the New Labour Project cemented that change by taking over the centre ground and demonising anything truly Left Wing.

One of the things I enjoyed (yes, enjoyed Shock) - along with many others - during the Indyref Campaign was the way that people were energised to talk politics again. People would strike up random conversations at bus stops! There was a real buzz and people were reading about politics. I can't remember how many copies of the White Paper "Scotland's Future" (all 670 pages of it Shock) were sent out or downloaded, but it was a lot .

I know there are some people who complain that it left the country bitterly divided but that genuinely wasn't my experience. Maybe it was because I live in a Yes voting city. Maybe it was because all my family, friends and colleagues (with only 2 exceptions) also supported (articulately Grin) independence. I don't know.

The one friend who couldn't cope with disagreement and who was getting distressed by the thought of change (which she acknowledged was due to her own issues), we mutually agreed not to talk about it. I came to an agreement with the other friend that if I was correct and that the greater risk to Scotland's place in the EU was if she stayed in the UK, that she would vote Yes next time - and not just that, she would campaign actively for that. (and she's kept her promise Smile).

But the point I'm making is that the 30/40 years ago, it was normal to debate politics "in real life" - and - Shock (Wink) - disagree Shock - and - Shock - even have friends who were openly in different parties.

Some of it was indeed a bit tribal/economic. My dad used to get a lot of stick from his doctor colleagues for being Labour Grin not any more WinkThe posh suburb of Glasgow we lived in was very Tory not any more Wink. But there is (or rather was ) also a tradition of One Nation Tories in Scotland. In fact, the first election after Dad arrived from South Africa, he voted Conservative because he believed in the "One Nation" message (he then did locum work as a student in the Glasgow slums....Sad).

I was brought up listening to animated dinner party arguments discussions. I went through Uni having animated arguments discussions (ironically enough, many of them I was arguing against supporters of Scottish Independence GrinConfused - I'd even have voted against devolution Shock)

We shouldn't be afraid to discuss politics in real life. But discussion should lead to clarifying opinions - not entrenching opinions. It should be based on facts and looking towards realistic solutions - not abuse and sticking heads in sand.

It's important that we don't leave it all to the politicians. We have to think too. To inform ourselves. To demand better from our politicians. Otherwise we deserve the moral vacuum abd developing black hole that Westminster has become, that risks sucking the UK into oblivion. Sad

ElenaGreco123 · 10/10/2017 22:23

I think it must be the shadowy Tory European Research Group www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/james-cusick-adam-ramsay-crina-boros/revealed-tory-mps-using-taxpayers-cash-to-fund-sec.