Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
LurkingHusband · 10/10/2017 15:56

Zero unemployment, LH - well when people's benefits are taken away if they don't do unpaid work experience, and lots of people are on zero hours contracts and/or part time hours when they need full time work, oh that's great news.

Sorry, forgot the linky ...

The government has confirmed plans to close 87 Jobcentre Plus (JCP) offices over the next seven months, and The Mirror has published the full list of the Jobcentres in question. The move will not only create job losses, but will also make it more difficult for unemployed people to find work.

(contd)

Somerville · 10/10/2017 15:58

I knew this kind of thing was going to start happening, Caileach. Angry

woman11017 · 10/10/2017 16:02

I wonder if the Home Office are just ignorant incompetent or have instructions come down from on high,
Breach of GFA, breach of ECHR? Breach of Equalities Act?
Home office is being run like something out of the most bananany of banana republics

Motheroffourdragons · 10/10/2017 16:03

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

woman11017 · 10/10/2017 16:04

I'm thinking 'white crackers with guns'(EDL, DUP insert as necessary) type banana republic.

woman11017 · 10/10/2017 16:08

Or 'militant tendency'

@IanDunt
As @1000cuts says, the hard Brexit Conservative right are the Tories' answer to Militant Tendency.

Cailleach1 · 10/10/2017 16:15

woman. " Repel bill has ensured parliament is by passed". Apt Freudian slip or what? If only more Cons were repelled by it.

LurkingHusband · 10/10/2017 16:28

Anyone else noticed how many active discussions on Brexit (or closely related matters) there are on MN at the moment? I'm experiencing that IRL, too. Lots of hope-for-the-best remain voters seem to finally be realising.

one thing that you can fling in their faces if they complain is that "project fear" warned that a leave vote would simply jam up every aspect of UK life for years to come.

I have a sneaking feeling "you ain't seen nothing yet".

Another by-product of the leave vote will be the inevitable slow decline in the quality of UK legislation. Come 2020 we'll probably be swimming in really shit laws, just for more lolz.

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 17:01

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

  1. Full transcript of Tusk's comments - worth reading carefully.
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/10/10-tusk-committee-regions/
  1. If "sufficient progress" hasn't been reached, then - together with our UK friends - we will have to think about where we are heading."
  2. What could this mean?
Could it mean EU27 shift position?
  1. Worth bearing in mind Tusk's comments from a year ago:
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/10/13-tusk-speech-epc/
  1. "In my opinion, the only real alternative to a "hard Brexit" is "no Brexit"."
Is that what he means? /ends
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 17:03

This is Tusk address today in full so no selective cuts here:

It is a real honour and pleasure to be here again at the Committee of the Regions. As I said during my last visit here, I am a true believer in the mission of this institution. Your members are important ambassadors for Europe to the political grassroots, closest to ordinary citizens, and your fingerspitzengefühl for the concerns of local communities helps to keep European policy-making firmly rooted in reality. Europe's self-confidence and well-being depend on the vitality of our cities, regions and municipalities, which is reflected in the Committee's agenda during this Week of Regions and Cities.

We last met 18 months ago, and much has happened since then. At the time, the European Council was working hard to end the most serious migration crisis Europe has ever faced, and also to prevent the exit of one of our largest Member States. As regards the first issue, we have been able to achieve a lot. By ordering the closure of the Western Balkan route and improving our cooperation with Turkey, the flows of irregular migrants on this path to Europe were stemmed by 98 per cent. However, on the second issue, we have unfortunately not been as successful. On June 23, Britain voted for Brexit.

Immediately after the result, I told the media what my father used to tell me: "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger." Thankfully, this is what has happened. But it did not happen automatically, it took much effort.

Britain's referendum campaign was full of false arguments and unacceptable generalisations. But it would have been a big mistake to interpret the negative result exclusively as a symptom of British exceptionalism and Euroscepticism, because all over Europe, even moderate voters were asking "Is the European Union the answer to problems of instability and insecurity, or is it now standing in the way?" To find a clear answer to this question, at my invitation, the leaders met as a community of 27 in Bratislava in September 2016.

The result was the Bratislava Roadmap, which was a set of specific, realistic commitments, carefully tailored to voters' real concerns. On migration, security, the economy and climate. More than this, we needed to move to close the gap between discussing issues and delivering results. Leaders agreed that momentum must be clear on all issues by the 60th anniversary celebrations of the Treaties of Rome in March, with a number of strict deadlines set for key legislation.

The progress we have made since Bratislava didn't come easily. To the contrary, each achievement was a tough battle on the way to restoring public confidence. Let me give some of the most important examples. In the first place, leaders promised never again to allow a return to the uncontrolled migration flows of 2015. As a result, the new European Border and Coast Guard was declared operational in December last year, and help was given to Greece, where over 1,000 European border guards are present. In addition, we have started providing financial assistance to refugees in Turkey. Likewise, earlier this year, after leaders agreed to close the Central Mediterranean route, our effort to train and equip the Libyan coastguard has led to a sharp drop in arrivals to Italy.

On climate: the entry into force in November 2016 of the Paris Climate Change Agreement thanks to EU efforts was a significant boost to our morale. More importantly, it also demonstrated Europe's continued leadership on the global stage. We have been clear since then, also to the new US administration, that the agreement must be implemented and cannot be renegotiated. The EU is now working to fulfil the commitments from Paris, both internally and globally, together with key countries such as India and China.

Europe continues to be a global leader in free and fair trade. A month after Bratislava, we signed the CETA agreement with Canada, and in July this year, a political agreement on an EU-Japan free trade deal. In doing so, we kept our promise to the public at Bratislava to give Europe the power to defend our citizens from unfair trading practices. As you know, new robust trade defence instruments were agreed last week, after months of tough debate. While our ambitious programme of trade expansion continues, we will not hesitate to use these new tools against trade hooligans.

Security was also, rightly, one of citizens' major concerns. We live in an increasingly unstable world, where terrorism, geo-political tension and cyber-attacks threaten our safety and interests on a daily basis.

While the European Union's contribution to peace, conflict resolution and humanitarian efforts is globally recognised, we cannot ignore the continued presence of hard power in the world and, indeed, around our own borders. This is why Europe must be even more united, capable of defending itself, and responsive to threats such as hybrid war. To this end, leaders have since Bratislava committed to serious defence cooperation, and begun using the EU's leverage to confront Islamist radicalisation on social media. We have also maintained the pressure to create, modernise and link EU databases needed for border security.

Over the past year, two other developments have brought fresh hope in the European idea. Firstly, our conduct in the Brexit talks has shown the European Union at its best: in terms of unity, political solidarity and fairness towards the United Kingdom, from drafting the EU guidelines to the negotiations themselves. And secondly, the European economy has woken up. Few economic observers would have predicted a year ago that average GDP growth in the European Union would be 2 per cent; that the eurozone would be recording its fastest rate of growth since 2011; or that the common currency would be enjoying the highest levels of popular support in over a decade.

Unemployment has now fallen below 8 per cent. Leaders will now discuss the future of our Economic and Monetary Union at the Euro Summit in December.

Denis de Rougemont, the Swiss philosopher whom I referred to last time I was here, once said: "the knowledge of true danger may cure us of false fears". That is what has happened in Europe since we started work on the Bratislava agenda. Europe has got its act together, but given the challenges we face, we cannot be complacent. It is for this reason that at the summit in Tallinn two weeks ago, European leaders discussed how to speed up decision-making at the European level, but above all, how to maintain our unity at 27. I was also given the mandate to develop the Leaders' Agenda for the next two years. I am now in the middle of these consultations, whose main aim is to provide real solutions to real issues of concern for our citizens, inter alia unemployment, irregular migration, fears connected with globalisation, and, of course, still Brexit. Here I would like to refer to Prime Minister Theresa May's recent words. We hear from London that the UK government is preparing for a "no deal" scenario. I would like to say very clearly that the EU is not working on such a scenario.

We are negotiating in good faith, and we still hope that the so-called "sufficient progress" will be possible by December. However, if it turns out that the talks continue at a slow pace, and that "sufficient progress" hasn't been reached, then - together with our UK friends - we will have to think about where we are heading.

Going back to the Leaders' Agenda for the next two years, your contribution is also very important, and I will pay close attention to it. Last year, I wrote to your President, asking the European Committee of the Regions to start a reflection on Europe, so that the voice of regional and local authorities is heard. I understand that already 100 meetings have been held around Europe to prepare this initiative. I can only thank you for your generous response to this challenge, and I look forward to the results with great interest.

Before you start the debate, allow me - at this extraordinary time for Catalonia and the whole of Spain - to address in your presence the President of the Generalitat de Catalunya, Mr Carles Puigdemont, shortly before his speech. I appeal to you not only as the President of the European Council, but also as a strong believer in the motto of the EU: "United in diversity", as a member of an ethnic minority and a regionalist, as a man who knows what it feels like to be hit by a police baton. And as a former prime minister of a big European country. In brief, as someone who understands and feels the arguments and emotions of all sides.

A few days ago, I asked Prime Minister Rajoy to look for a solution to the problem without the use of force. To look for dialogue. Because the force of arguments is always better than the argument of force.

Today I ask you to respect - in your intentions - the constitutional order and not to announce a decision that would make such a dialogue impossible. Diversity should not, and need not, lead to conflict, whose consequences would obviously be bad: for the Catalans, for Spain and for the whole of Europe. Let us always look for what unites us, and not for what divides us. This is what will decide the future of our continent.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 17:05

Tusk's Hard Brexit or No Exit Speech still remains one of the most important comments on Brexit to date in my opinion.

He has very much been on the mark so far.

This shouldn't be ignored.

He's trying to give a message.

If its staying in the EU, I don't see it being on our current terms btw.

Perhaps a new EU treaty...

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 10/10/2017 17:10

Perhaps a new EU treaty..

Involving the Euro ?

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 17:35

Hahahaha

Don't joke.

Hmm
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 17:40

Key point: EU is not contingency planning for no deal.

IMPORTANT.

OP posts:
Cailleach1 · 10/10/2017 17:44

I'm probably a bit dense, but what is the significance? Are there parallel talks taking place?

HashiAsLarry · 10/10/2017 17:49

I would not want to be the pm who loses Sterling Shock

Cailleach1 · 10/10/2017 17:52

Never heard of fingerspitzengefühl before. I'll have to try it out during dinner. Instead of gut instinct. My spidey fingerspitzengefühl sense.

Motheroffourdragons · 10/10/2017 17:59

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 18:02

The significance is that the EU needs to have customs infrastructure in place too. Impossible as it stands.

The ability for the EU to trade with the UK at all post 2019 does not currently exist.

This is a problem that will need to be resolved.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 10/10/2017 18:17

#Catalan leader says #Catalonia is a European matter not local anymore

(looking like mediation not independence on the cards. speech on going).

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 10/10/2017 18:24

Involving the Euro wasn't a joke ... all new EU members will have to join the Euro.

Meanwhile, LurkingHusband posts about republicanism, and a few short hours later ....

www.scotsman.com/news/snp-calls-for-monarchy-funding-to-be-slashed-1-4582925

The SNP has backed a drastic reduction in state funding for the Royal Family, arguing that the current arrangement results in ordinary people being “shafted by a rich elite”.

(contd)

gets my vote.

ElenaGreco123 · 10/10/2017 18:30

Key point: EU is not contingency planning for no deal.

Neither does the UK. I need to start prepping. Raised vegetable beds is the way.

frumpety · 10/10/2017 19:08

Should we buy candles in our prepping shopping , I don't mind no heating as such , we have plenty of spare duvets/blankets . Bottled water just in case . Batteries for the radio . Power packs for mobiles. No idea why I am imagining there might be a lack of electricity though . My list actually reads like a list my Mother would write for a camping trip in the 70's Wink

Cailleach1 · 10/10/2017 19:11

After bringing the country to the brink, Carles Puigdemont is suspending the declaration of independence and wants to de-escalate the tension in the country. Who could have anticipated the tension and a very difficult situation? Not a very seasoned politician. Yeah, right.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-independence-spain-latest-news-updates-referendum-region-a7993346.html

SwedishEdith · 10/10/2017 19:47

Jon Worth on Twitter is trying to collect old Dominic Cummings tweets

Bonnie Greer‏ @Bonn1eGreer 22h22 hours ago

Dominic Cummings-#VoteLeave has deleted his Twitter account-@odysseanproject.
Spilled a lot of beans.
I copied it!

Grin

It's been interesting watching the Twitter North spats today. I've said all along that they're too unpleasant to get enough people to listen to them. I screengrabbed something PN tweeted the other week which he deleted immediately as it was so awful. He's openly sneered at any EU citizens who haven't taken out UK citizenship as not being committed enough. He callously doesn't care about them. He's not interested in details about why some never felt they needed to (take out other citizenship as that was the point of the EU) or couldn't do (without giving up their nationality of birth). Just another idealogue.