Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

[RedToothBrush]

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

www.pressreader.com/uk/i-newspaper/20171009/281925953229419

buccaneer = pirate, but buccaneer sounds swashbuckling rather thn murderous

The words have different dictionary meanings, but pirate is the real intent

If ROI were left to police the border and I were them, I'd be tempted to only police what affects ROI. I wouldn't be bothering checking who left the country, but I'd check who came in, etc. I know things aren't that simple btw, but I'd be looking at how much I could do wrt my borders and stuff the UK.

For some reason the accelerating slew of bad news reminds me of Black Wednesday when interest rates we ratcheted up to 18% (?) from 5% in 6 hours before sanity took the UK our of the ERM

interest rates we ratcheted up to 18%

That will be a lot of people who can’t pay their mortgages. Do we suppose this was one of those consequences that Leavers actively voted for with eyes wide open, therefore they’re all prepared for swathes of families losing their homes? After all, what price sovereignty?

(Also, it will all be amazing in umpty-um years)

Jon Worth on Twitter is trying to collect old Dominic Cummings tweets, if anyone here happens to have screen grabbed them at any point. Jon is a good follow on brexit/EU/German politics.

Cross post misti!
jonworth.eu/dominic-cummings-odysseanproject-deletes-twitter-account-piecing-back-together/

A cheery morning to you from Pete North

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303

1. I'm now 100% certain there will not be a deal. We are past the point of salvation.
2. May thinks she has made a reasonable offer but it is simply not grounded in reality. She's away with the fairies.
3. She thinks this can be wrapped up in the construct of Article 50 which is a complete misapprehension.
4. She thinks it is now the responsibility of the EU to accept her offer when they have already declined it - twice.
5. None of the proposals are consistent with the rules of the system and May is demanding the impossible.
6. As much as government is not seriously engaging it lacks the capacity. They will never comprehend the issues. Its too complex for them
7. Underlying all this is an assumption that we can just muddle through and that no deal has manageable consequences.
8. Little is understood of the seismic implications - not least because the EU cannot breach its own rules
9. The assumption is that the EU will fold and refuse to put up barriers - but the EU is bound by the WTO system. No exceptions.

10. Once the UK has chosen to be outside of the EU systems, no special concessions can be made. They cannot help us. 11. The Tory assumption that regulatory parity is the basis of free trade is one that has taken root and they can't be talked out of it. 12. This is the line put forward by Legatum Institute and it is very obviously wrong 13. So we definitely will lose all of our JIT manufacturing and we lose most of our 3rd country trade relationships overnight. 14. At a guess I think we stand to lose more than a third of our trade - but very possibly most of it for the interim. 15. So that means major sweeping cuts are imminent. Expect massive HM forces redundancies and cuts to public services 16. The bottom line is this government holds far too many misapprehensions about how the system works to ever understand EU reticence. 17. So it will go on demanding the unrealistic and the improbable until it sees no choice but to walk away - blaming the EU for it. 18. As to being ready in 2 years, forget it. There is a decades worth of regulatory engineering to do. 19. So you can expect a number of sectors to collapse, a long recession, teetering over into a depression. This will cost unimaginable sums. 20. Most of all there will be no deal because the government is entirely insincere and is not taking it seriously. Game over.

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303

1. So now we shall be subject to a torrent of articles ruminating on preparations for a "no deal" #Brexit
2. We have already seen a number of weak attempts from various wonks, MPs and think tanks, all of whom are missing the point
3. Though Dover has to be prepared for a new regime for incoming goods, that says nothing of the other side of the channel.
4. Third country foodstuffs have to go via a border inspection post. There isn't one at Calais.
5. So a number of trucks have to be redirected. Calais does not have the facilities and existing ones elsewhere are not big enough.
6. Since there will be long delays that means fresh produce goes off - thus killing fresh exports.
7. Meanwhile, Calais will need to make arrangements for customs checks so that will mean diverting lorries to temporary inspection points
8. The EU is not going to waive inspections and since a number of goods will no longer have valid registrations they cannot even be shipped.

10. And since all this is going to cost France especially, one way or another, we are going to end up paying for it. 11. The EU may wish to agree to an implementation period out of self interest, but this doesn't go every far. 12. At best we will have a year to sort out the basics in advance. Since we are interrupting a decades old routine we can expect jams 13. Only way we won't see an Operation Stack is if authorities meticulously plan it. That means major logistics planning. We'll mess it up 14. Since UK companies will have to pay to re-register goods there is a good chance there will be substantially less traffic anyway. 15. Any new restrictions added into the system, which is already choked and easily disturbed, will have consequences. 16. The first modifications will be temporary but delays will be caused by the construction of more permanent facilities. 17. If however, there is no implementation provision then it's instant chaos. I wouldn't rule it out. 18. The EU might very well be minded to let this happen just for the entertainment value. I would. 19. I'm sure there would be immense satisfaction in seeing the UK government coming to terms with the consequences of their belligerence 20. If, however, it is managed well then we will see an orderly collapse in living standards over a year or two. 21. That then will become the new normal. Every day will see a new wave of redundancies. It will take years to fix.

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303

In the event of a no deal #brexit, fishing will be among the first sectors to collapse completely

James D.‏*@JDTIPS*
You are exaggerating everything.

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303

You hope.

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303
Some stray Brexit thoughts

1. As soon as May walks out of talks we have a bit of a problem. Here's where politics takes over from procedure
2. We'd still be within the Article 50 window unless formally closed. That in itself would be an agreement that requires the rubber stamp.
3. The only way the government can avoid that is to stall for the full two years. There is no way they can last this long.
4. And we need to be clear that failure to agree with the EU is a failure of government. May/Davis would have to resign.
5. So this is now a question of whether a new administration can intercept before a walkout is formalised.
6. This suggests to me that a motion of no confidence is a way out. Is that right? We are not out until treaties cease to apply.
7. Any government that thinks it can walk out of talks with our nearest and biggest trade partner is one that is objectively incompetent.
8. Parliament is not a toothless instrument here. They are not casual observers. They have power. They must act.
9. So the question is why is parliament sitting on its hands? Do they not recognise the danger?

10. But then now I mention it, that might very well be the case. I refer you to parliamentary questions yesterday. 11. MPs were asking about the shape and length of the transition rather than pointing out that May is evading phase one A50 issues. 12. This is why we might actually end up with "accidental Brexit" simply because there wasn't the coherence to recognise it was happening. 13. If that is the case then we have an even bigger problem than Brexit in that our parliament has utterly ceased to function. 14. If it's not willing or able to assert itself in these such matters then why even bother having it? This is becoming a national emergency

Pete North‏******@PeteNorth303

1. So my notifications are clogged up with remainers saying how all this was predicted. Except that it wasn't.
2. When you spit up a cloud of flak then an aeroplane will fly into it. That is not an indication of your aim.
3. The remain campaign was a sustained fit of histrionics - and that was why it was largely ridiculed and (rightly) ignored.
4. And then they complain about hard Brexit after spending two years lying through their teeth about the Norway option.
5. They then complain at the rush for the exit by the ultras after they spent a year calling themselves "proud saboteurs"
6. FYI: Telling the majority of voters you will go to any lengths democratic or otherwise to overturn a vote does not win allies.
7. As to whether this was predictable, I do not think it was. We pushed for an EEA option and that, at the time, seemed plausible
8. The house of commons was majority remain and it was expected that the opposition would at least have a coherent position.
9. Corbyn notwithstanding, even I am surprised at the total disarray in the opposite benches. Stunned!

10. Moreover, May seemed like the obvious unity candidate as a remainer. She was got at by her Brexit loons. Proved to be spineless. 11. What we are witnessing here is a systemic collapse of politics and institutional paralysis. That's a new dynamic to what was predicted. 12. Now you can cynically say it was all predictable but this turn of events is unprecedented. 13. We know that Westminster material is especially low grade but this is exceeding all prior expectations. 14. This to me though is an indicator of why Brexit is necessary. Politics is too broken to repair. We've shone a light on that. 15. You tell me we could have fixed things another way but this bunch were never going to do it. Too self-absorbed. 16. While we have been in the EU politics has atrophied and has been idling all this time. It wasn't going to achieve anything 17. It was always going to take something seismic of this magnitude to shock us into paying attention. 18. More to the point, I do not blame Brexit for this. No government should ever have ratified a thing like Lisbon. Ever. 19. Ratifying without consent or consultation was only ever going to backfire. That is at the heart of Brexit. Power not theirs to give away 20. That showed us that our government will do whatever it likes to us without us having a say. 21. Now we find that same dynamic repeated. And that tells of a politics that is not fit for purpose - and a country that isn't a democracy.

Is Pete North exaggerating?
Simple answer to this is no, if the decision is to no deal. Business are aware of this with the issues relating to customs.

Do the government understand Brexit?
No. They still have to grasp what many of us did over a year ago. Part of this is down to a reluctance to look at the evidence and pressuring others not to look at the evidence.

Nor do they have any idea about how long key things like the customs IT or the invisible NI border would take to implement. Even now. IT is not exactly a Tory strong point. If the rhetoric over no deal starts in earnest the brain drain, particularly in this sector, will start ramping up hugely in the coming months as businesses realise this, and start to transfer staff and the penny drops with those with are bright and young.

Can the government stall for 2 years?
No. Nor can they shorten the 2 year period as they need the time to prepare. So yes North's point about stalling is a good one.

Its probably what Labour are betting on to a degree. The cynic in me, says there are some in the Tory Party who would be happy about this, in order to blame the coming storm on Labour.

Do parliament recognise the danger?
This is what I find most extraordinary given the conversations on here and how we have largely predicting the next set of things in the chain of events as things progress. We've discussed a lot of the real problems that need to be dealt with in order to have an orderly Brexit. Yet I'm yet to see Parliament seriously talk about a lot of these. They certainly haven't in the main chamber. And yet some of these issues HAVE been discussed in Select Committees.

Its more an issue over no one wanting to stick their neck out. No one wants to 'defy the will of the people' or be seen to.

This is resulting in a paralysis and total lack of management of the situation. Rule 1 of Management: Identify the problem. Rule 2 of Management: Come up with a range of idea of possible solutions to the problem. I don't think its even a failure of politics, but an inability to know how to manage a situation because these people are politicians not managers and have little or no experience in managing.

The bottom line is everyone is avoiding the problem and pretending its not their issue to solve. This is the chronic issue I've had with the workplace: people who see anything outside their little bubble as 'not their problem' and 'someone else's responsibility'. I actually think its a particularly British mentality and one that is seriously hampering our productivity. We have a parliament full of them.

Is parliament ceasing to function an even bigger problem than Brexit?
Yes. Absolutely. It means we are poorly positioned to deal and cope with the fall out of a no deal. Yes this is a national emergency in the making. The only solution that May will be able to think of, is the army. Yet, how is that going to work if sweeping cuts in the army are on the cards in a depression???

Was this predicted? Is North right in saying that remainers are wrong to say it was?
Yes and No.

Remainers did predict that the Cake and Eat it thing, was a reluctance to admit the reality and this was going to cause major problem.

Some remainers did identify the political vacuum that would be created by Brexit and the extent to which this was a bad thing that would be difficult to reconcile.

The Remain campaign was shit and yes, I think it was OTT in some ways. (It also clearly didn't go far enough too at the same time!)

And the stumbling block over Ireland and the GFA was predicted. And deliberately not discussed by the Leave campaign AND the Remain campaign

Is North right about the 'Proud Saboteurs'?
I resent what he says here. I think there is a sizeable number of people who were reacting in response to the way they were cast in trying to point out legitimate problems rather than the other way around. It was a reaction to an anti-democratic agenda rather than Brexit itself. Plus there are a lot of 'Remainers' who I would say, whilst they would like to stay in the EU, they also could deal with and live with Brexit if it was handled properly. I think North fails to understand the nuances of the 'hard core' Remainers. I think many are much more pragmatic.

By the same token, remainers HAVE predicted stuff AFTER the referendum result, as the practical implications became apparent.

David Allen Green and his walls of Reality, appeared very soon after the referendum. Ian Dunt and his talk of queues in Calais were around over a year ago, and its only now the government are talking about it. The issues over the complexity of doing trade deals were there early on. As was the issue over WTO status. All of which is now coming back to bite us on the bum as the government have taken much longer to recognise these problems. I also recall several commentators saying they had reservations about how May would handle the glare of the cameras as she wasn't experienced in this at the home office and it wasn't her style.

What wasn't predicted was the extent of the undemocratic stuff May came out with. And yet, her micromanagement and disregard for facts and the law were discussed.

Conclusion
I think North overall is right though to describe this as almost a twin and interlocking double issue rather the singular Brexit. Its a crisis in democracy, in addition to the practical issue.

This is why he is, sadly, right I fear.

Brexit though complex is an issue that could ultimately be managed. It can't be managed by people who don't understand how to manage and can't manage though. Leadership isn't just the issue here. Its also down to the quality of what questions are being asked of the leadership and this is happening on both side. This is being silenced by bullying tactics on both sides because 'unity' is seen as more important. Brexit is the elephant in the room no one wants to discuss honestly and properly rather than the problem everyone wants to work to solve.

The media also has a lot to answer in allowing this to happen too.

And the public who lack the comprehension born out of complacency and a lack of imagination that yes, it could be that bad.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

15 Tory MPs are now signed up to some of the individual EU Withdrawal Bill amendments on powers - new 2017 intake Masterton, & Heidi Allen

15 is a magic number. Its enough. Even with 7 Labour Brexit rebels.

blaming the EU for it.
As Leave apologists are already doing.

And we need to be clear that failure to agree with the EU is a failure of government. May/Davis would have to resign.

Don't bank on it - in normal times they would have already resigned.

I will believe the 15 Tories will rebel when I actually see them do so.

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

1. Some commentators are now certain there will be "no deal" - that is, no exit deal between UK and EU.

Are they right?

1. There is plenty of time for a deal, of some kind. It is only October 2017, too early to be certain there will be no deal by April 2019.
2. That said, there are currently structural points which go against there being any deal.
3. EU want a single deal, covering cash, citizenship, Ireland, etc. This means there cannot be discrete deals on each outstanding issue.
4. EU also insists there has to be sufficient progress on cash, citizenship, Ireland, etc before discussing transition issues.
5. Both these positions can change, but not easily. Written into the Council guidelines of April 2017, unanimously adopted by EU27.
6. Changing these guidelines would be turning a tanker around. Can be done but at a huge time cost. Also, no indicatin EU 27 want to change.
7. Other structural problems less easy.

Deal has to be ratified by European Parliament. Also maybe by some national parliaments too.

1. This means, in effect, deal has to be finalised by this time next year. Could be some slippage, but not much.

10. So on the EU side there solid and almost solid locks on procedure, structure and requirement of one deal 11. EU also has almost solid locks on it positions on each of the issues. cash, citizenship, Ireland, etc 12. The EU27's positions on each of these can be changed, but not easily or quickly. So lots of smaller tankers to turn round too. 13. The logic of the EU's position is that UK accepts deal within scope of EU's April 2017 guidelines, or no deal at all. 14. And unless UK accepts such a deal, then no transition arrangements either. Hard Brexit. Snap on 29 March 2019. 15. None of this news. All set out expressly in April 2017. UK had needless general election instead of addressing this properly at time.

Hmmm. Why do some of the signatories get a 'Mr' honorific when others don’t?

15. None of this news. All set out expressly in April 2017.
UK had needless general election instead of addressing this properly at time.

But May believed the opinion polls and couldn't resist the chance to destroy Labour. This was much more important than anything else.

But, it's all Project Fear, right? Because, you see, nobody has a crystal ball when it comes to any downsides of Brexit.

However we definitely have a crystal ball when it comes to the (mysteriously vague) upsides of Brexit: everything is going to be Wonderful, in umpty-um years.

And nobody said it was going to be easy (even though lots of people did say it was going to be easy), and everybody knew there were going to be hard times (even though lots of people were expecting instantly wonderful times with money pouring into the NHS). And any amount of hardship (like losing jobs, or homes, or public services, or the democracy) that we all foresaw in our crystal ball (the one that couldn't see any downsides to Brexit, remember that one?) when we were casting our completely unanimous votes to Leave will be worth it anyway, because what price Sovereignty and Control?

And-and-and- even though we foresaw /didn't foresee (depending on which narrative we're currently using) all the downsides of Brexit, nevertheless, all these downsides were completely and entirely caused by people who didn't vote for Brexit (although they don't exist, because the entire country is united behind Brexit) who are killing Brexit fairies with their Unbelief. Also the bullying nasty EU and their covert operational arm, the CBI. It's all these sundry villains who are making Brexit hard when it should rightly be as easy as pie; and so there was no way we could have expected any of these downsides.

Have I covered all the bases?

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*
16. On UK side, things are more flexible. No structural equivalent to the EU's April 2017 guidelines.
17. But there will still need to be a parliamentary vote on final deal, also Withdrawal Bill needs to be passed in time to implement deal.
18. And then there is political question of how much of the EU27 position can be stomached by Brexit supporting politicians and media.
19. But hanging there is a further major problem.
20. UK has done nothing - nothing at all - to prepare itself for such a hard Brexit. No customs, no new agencies, no rights of residence.
21. On this, see this excellent piece by @xtophercook
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028
22. The failure of the UK to prepare for Brexit is the reason why UK now wants transition phase of "around two years".
23. UK is admitting it will need two years (at least) for it to be prepared for hard Brexit.
24. The EU knows this. Bluster and bluffs about the UK walking away will have no effect.
25. So unless EU27 turns all its tankers around, the only available deal will be on EU's terms. No indication that EU27 position changing.
26. If the EU27 does not move, then the UK will have to move, if there is a deal. And UK is not prepared for no deal.
27. Still plenty of time for a deal, but the only foreseeable deal is capitulation by UK on all issues as per the EU guidelines.
28. But that in turn does not solve the problem of transition - EU acquis of law and ECJ jurisdiction for at least another two years.
29. And this in turn would be (understandably) unacceptable to sincere Brexiteers.
So, a bit of a mess really.
30. So unless the EU27 shift (unlikely) or UK accepts Brexit in name only (also unlikely) no easy way to see how a deal can happen.
/ends

I said to my leavr campaigning person that the government would collapse and he said that's a good thing.
It was fairly easy to see it would happen. I'm afraid I'm angry with North and Norgrove. They are taking the same stance as they always did of criticising from the sidelines.

Red Why aren't you PM?
Elements I totally agree that it's become part of the Brexit narrative that we were always told 'well, of course it will be difficult for a while but then it will be wonderful'.
I don't remember being told that at all. I remember being told that it would be utopia from the moment article 50 was triggered which Camoron said would be the day after the referendum. There would instantly be £350m a week for the NHS etc.
We should not let history be rewritten like this. I don't remember anyone from the Leave campaign saying 'It will be shit for 10/20/30/100 years'.
I still can't believe this is happening. When did our politicians become so spineless?
I am going back to bed and pulling the duvet over my head for the next 20 years.

If ROI were left to police the border and I were them, I'd be tempted to only police what affects ROI. I wouldn't be bothering checking who left the country, but I'd check who came in, etc. I know things aren't that simple btw, but I'd be looking at how much I could do wrt my borders and stuff the UK.

As far as I remember from my trip around America over 10 years ago this was (still is?) pretty much what happens on the el Paso bridge border with Mexico. We just frolicked over the bridge to Mexico with barely a glance from border guards, but on the way back in got the full grilling and baggage checks. If Ireland don't care what's leaving their side I can't see why they would do our checks for us.

Red Why aren't you PM?

Far too sane

BAe systems are actually culling 2,000 jobes (i.e. twice what was feared yesterday).

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/10/10/bae_confirms_it_is_slashing_2000_jobs/

bigly I now have visions of someone running for pm in about 20 years time saying we must build a wall with ROI, they can pay for it

we must build a wall with ROI, they can pay for it

Given the stereotypical English view of the Irish, this is either offensive or apposite ....