Westministers: May Shares the Cake

[RedToothBrush]

May's Speech Abbreviated:

We still have nfi how we are going to do this. EU this is your fault. You sort it out. We are too lazy, workshy and fighting like high school children to work it out ourselves. Be our whipping boy.

I support democracy as long as I get to do whatever I like
I support human rights as long as I can ignore them when I like.
I support the rule of law except when it doesn't suit my agenda.

Waffle waffle.

"Creative", "Dynamic" PR for my Premiership.

Waffle waffle

We really need policing cooperation, PLEASE keep it with us. I know I threatened to withdraw this, but I'm sorry, I was wrong and a bit of a dick about this.

Gets to the point FINALLY.

"2 year transition period"

(With another time bomb lock which is still too short for IT departments. Nothing to do with the next general election, honest).

RULE BRITANNIA!

Polite Applause.

So as a woman in her 60s (just) who has signed the official secrets act and has links to China should I worry?

Well I'd like to say, that just depends on whether you are a spy or not.

But with this government, you should just worry.

Not because you've signed the official secrets act or because you have links to China but because they have plenty of less imaginative ways to fuck you first in other ways.

LH, I don't like those four dots at the end of your post.

They were meant to be three ...

If only renewables were at a more advanced stage.

Well, that's just around the corner (see also: nuclear fusion, jetpacks, moon colonies, bacofoil suits ...)

Although it's a serious nod to the fact that what separates developed and developing nations is access to energy as it always has.

Returning to gamekill, remember that a diet or exclusive rabbit protein can lead to deficiencies.

Incidentally, which preppers have bothered to squirrel away a print copy of something like the Encyclopedia Britannica ?

because they have plenty of less imaginative ways to fuck you first in other ways. Well I am one of the million women fucked over on my expected rights to a state pension.........

www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/08/02/a-million-women-poorer-due-to-government-pension-changes/

With solar panels and a wood burner we are actually in quit's a good place here!
But two teenage dcs isn't a help at all food wise...

I agree with LH that all this prepping wouldn't last very long.
My preparation includes

• getting DH to open a bank account at his name only just in case all my accounts are blocked (that incl our joint account)
• moving saving outside the uk (the euros feels much safer atm)
• getting myself as prepared as I can re possible move (esp as my job isn't one I can do easily in my home country due to regulations etc...)
• having all necessary/possible docs ready if we do need to move as well as knowing how we could cope once we have moved in a hurry??

Any prepping to save money is assuming that the post-apocalypse won't be so bad that people won't take Visa ?

In reality, the only practical prepping to be done is how to evade the round-up squads that will be moving people into stadiums to imprison protect them.

Or did no one notice that all infantry training since the 1970s has involved urban clearance ?

Better work out a way to stay hidden, and throw off the dogs, first.

At the time, it seemed like a bad joke. But maybe Mark Steels tale of a yam yam and polish guy chatting had a grain of truth ...

I am from Warsaw
Oh aye, just up the road
Maybe you have heard of our ghetto ?
Oh, I loikes a bit of cake myself !

I think I'm becoming decaffeinated ...

My brother is an A&E doctor and can't decide at the moment whether he'd be an asset or liability in the post-apocalyptic Brexit world (yes, tongue in cheek).

While he has very useful skills, he is also likely to be in contact with infectious and/or zombiefied people at a very early stage...

DS (8) went on a survival course this summer so knows how to trap and prepare pigeons and rabbits - in theory. I hadn't signed him up for any purpose other than 8.30 to 5.30 childcare!

We have a well and lots of wood, so reckon we'd be okay for a couple of weeks. Probably a month if we start eating the unidentified packages at the bottom of the chest freezer which have probably been there for 20 years or so since the freezer was last moved. Unfortunately we like our neighbours, so the food stocks would probably go down more quickly. And one of our neighbours is an engineer, so you know, useful!

Cheery thoughts.

This is from Robert Peston's FB page. Quite a comment:

That was the most socialist and longest speech by a British political leader on the brink of power any of us can remember.
Jeremy Corbyn doubled down on his left-wing manifesto for the last general election - because of his conviction that the centre of gravity in British politics has shifted in his direction.
He also stuck two 68-year-old fingers up to power and the establishment; he warned housebuilders that undeveloped land would be taxed and even expropriated; he told landlords they face rent controls; he repeated his pledge to nationalise the energy, water and railway companies; he taunted the editor of the Daily Mail that his paper's personal attacks on him were in practice doing Labour a favour.
Trade unions would regain their lost powers and gain more. Companies would pay more tax so that people could acquire the skills needed to cope with the industrial challenges set by robotics and artificial intelligence.
Council tenants would not have their estates redeveloped unless they agreed in a ballot. The gender pay gap would be closed.
Arms sales to Saudi would be stopped. Pressure would be put on Israel to agree to a "genuine two state solution" of its conflict with Palestinians.
As for terrorism, it is "thriving in a world our governments have helped to shape, with its failed states, military interventions and occupations, where millions are forced to flee conflict or hunger".
And the boot was put into Trump, for not behaving like a proper world leader, for good measure.
This was probably the best delivered and crafted of any he has given (which, to be frank, is not saying much - oratory and Corbynism are not hand in glove).
The Labour mob loved and worshipped him, in what was more religious festival than traditional conference.
It was 90 minutes of putting the world to rights by a politician who has largely occupied the same political space for 50 years. He was true to himself, as he normally is, in a way that is unusual for a politician at the top.
In that narrow sense - and whisper it softly - he is Thatcher's heir.
He thinks the mountain, the British people, have at last migrated to him - that the huge surge Labour enjoyed in the election was just the start, not a flash in the pan of a dire Tory campaign.
If he's right, we've just heard a speech as important as those by Blair in the 90s and Thatcher in the 70s that presaged a reshaping of our discourse and lives.
But truthfully these shifts are easier to see in the rear view mirror than through the front windscreen.

Sorry this was a while ago- I promised to share TMs and JCs profiles.

In terms of Belbin (team roles) - they asked their practitioners to contribute based on observed behaviours

TM - is in this order of preference:
Shaper, Implementer and Specialist with least preferred roles being co-ordinator, team worker and plant.
This means she is good at implementing already through through ideas, getting on with the job but has little flexibility. Hard driving and confrontational. Not good at new ideas (plant). Detailed not Visionary

JC - Coordinator, Team Worker and Plant with least preferred roles being Monitor Evaluator, Completer Finisher.

Good at ideas and bringing people with him, potential vision but not good at seeing things through with detail. Big Picture.

In terms of NLP Metaprograms (these tend to come in pairs with language clues. They are neither good or bad (and can be contextual). There are a continuum so you can be more of something than something else.

There are some similarities.

Both TM and JC are internally referenced (as opposed to externally referenced), in that their feedback monitor is inside themselves so not open to external feedback (that would just be information to be disregarded). This tends to make you more resillient but you miss cues and only works if your feedback is in step with others. You often trust a very small group of people and if they are a good match with the outside world you are probably ok. This is how JC kept going when the papers hated him. This is how TM seems to completely disregard anything other than her view. It makes them very single minded as they are both quite extreme on this continuum

TM and JC - both mismatch (as opposed to match) - they tend to look for the flaws and what's not working first.

TM - is an Away Thinker - thinks of all the risks.
JC - is a Towards Thinker - what's the goal, what do we want.

TM - is task orientated - thinks of the job in hand rather than the effect on people (I'm not sure she does the people end of this pair with any authenticity so has little flexibility here).
JC - is people orientated - what's the impact on people first (then task)

TM - is specific - focuses on the detail.
JC - is big picture - what's the overall vision?

TM - Procedure - sticks to the rules, step by step process (again no flexibility here).
JC - Options - many ways to do things, the pattern of ideas.

There are more but these are the main ones... so if you pull them together.

TM - 1st postion - my view - the 'I' view - you can see it in her speeches
JC - not sure, potential more flexibility , he tends to use 'we' in his speeches more.

TM - my view is right, we've got a task to do, head down get on with it, fixed view of what the right answer feels like (but probably has no ideas what they right answer is), tends to look for what's not working first, stick to what I think the rules are . I want to know the details.

JC - Big Picture overview of the goal (probably his goal less than a shared view but can bring people with him) and other people can work out the details. As he does think about people he can bring them with him - he can do rapportful mismatching!

There is a whole other thing called - Spiral dynamics

TM - is Blue, Blue, Blue - the victorians were blue.
JC - is probably yellow
(but this is a whole other thing that would take a while to explain and will do if anyone is interested but enough for now!)

www.dontiko.com/single-post/2017/09/27/New-Brexit-blow-for-expat-pensioners

Another one about the issue with passporting and the risk to pensions (both for Brits abroad and eu citizens in the uk)

Horns of a dilemma:

1. socialist paradise outside the EU ?
2. neoliberal economy inside the EU ?

who remembers the 70s ?

theworld that's a very interesting analysis!

Meanwhile in Blue Land:

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/09/tory-mp-compares-his-own-partys-conference-to-politburo-meeting-over-ban-on-proper-debates/#more-67256
Tory MP compares his own party’s conference to ‘politburo meeting’ over ban on proper debates

(Note here that a Labour MP has said grumpily that the Labour Conference was boring compared with the Momentum fringe event where "all the interesting debates" were going on.

I think this is actually an important point. Politics tends to follow where the debate is. Who is setting the agenda?

The Conservatives lost control of the agenda during the election campaign. They have been unable to get it back. In terms of what is happening with Brexit, they have largely lost control of the debate, as they are having to follow the EU / pressure behind closed doors by more moderate conservatives. They are not driving the debate as they aren't actually inspiring anyone. Farage, did actually do that, but he's complaining that he's no longer getting the attention he thinks he deserves - but that's because he's no longer setting the agenda.

And in addition to Peston's comments, there is this tweet:

Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*

V important claim from Corbyn that he represents new centre ground-it's been his team's analysis for ages but now spelling it out

The Overton window has shifted. It will define the future ultimately, regardless of how many suppressing policies the Conservatives try and put in. May is PM but she is not leading the country and she is not inspiring anyone. Inspiration = hope. Brexiteers should know that hope is a powerful weapon in political terms that can not be removed by telling people not to do something and telling them they should behave in a particular way.

Lurking, I've seen a comment in the last day or so, about Corbyn. Why is he not satisfied with a socialist model like Scandinavian countries that can be accomplished within the EU? If he doesn't think they go far enough what are we looking at? A model closer to Cuba?

What happens when he gets push back against his vision? Can he deliver what he talks about which is so radical? Its hard to see how. At least not easily.

There is a great divide between vision and reality here. Both the Tories and Labour are guilty of it. Both are talking of a revolution of sorts, and as I keep saying, revolutions don't tend to be pretty things.

It has to be said that FT readers are getting a reputation as the most sane:

Mark Davies‏*@markxdavies*
Hard not to love this reader comment in the FT... #Brexit

DB has woken up (not sure if that's the time difference, or just him )

First comment on reading the story about Bombardier ?

Well, the UK could always take Boeing to the ECJ ...

Chris Kendall @ottocrat
[Thread] People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1
What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2
The US eliminated the UK’s large passenger aircraft industry in the 50s. In the 70s a new EU consortium challenged US dominance: Airbus. /3
Selling airliners isn’t like selling widgets. Investments are so huge, timelines so long, normal market rules don’t apply. /4
It takes literally decades for a multi-billion investment in a new airliner to return a profit. No bank will lend on those terms. /5
So the aircraft industry would not exist without state support. Every aircraft maker relies on some form of subsidy. /6
As aircraft makers fight for dominance, state aids have become the key battleground. Slapping on a punitive tariff can ruin a competitor. /7
In the EU, we hit upon a solution called Launch Aid. Govt invests huge sums in developing new models, is repaid from royalties on sales. /8
The level of subsidy in Launch Aid can’t be determined because royalties continue to be paid throughout a product’s life. /9
So far, all EU Launch Aid for Airbus has ultimately returned a profit to state investors. ie zero subsidy. /10
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2010/september/tradoc_146485.pdf
US calls foul & says it’s unfair, but it also uses state aids eg indirect subsidies. US aero manufacturers get billions in defence work. /11
US aero makers cross-subsidise development of civil airliners & engines by using tech developed under defence contracts. /12
This is how the Boeing 747 was developed, for example. /13
www.economist.com/node/14214813
Only huge economies like EU & US can afford large civil aircraft industries. But smaller countries can compete: eg Canada, Brazil. /14
But they can’t compete on a level playing field if they’re punished for legal state aids. They have to be able to defend themselves. /15
And this is where being an EU member is so important. The EU has the weight to defend itself. We can retaliate. /16
The UK acting alone can’t take on the US. This is why it lost its post-war lead in civil aviation. /17
academic.oup.com/ahr/article/113/1/151/41355/Jeffrey-A-Engel-Cold-War-at-30-000-Feet-The-Anglo
International trade is dirty, that’s why we need rules. Free trade Brextremists like Minford don’t get it, or deliberately hide from it. /18
By advocating unilateral free trade, “liberal” Leavers are bringing chocolate spoons to a knife fight. UK industry will be decimated. /19
Acting collectively, fronted by the exceptional trade specialists in the European Commission’s DG Trade, the EU defends its corner. /20
It’s a big bad world out there. If your livelihood depends on exports, do you want May, Fox, and Johnson defending your interests? /21

Note here: Neither May nor Corbyn are grasping this.

Kevin Maguire‏ @Kevin_Maguire
Tory MP on Con reaction to Corbyn: "Looking at the Mps WhatsApp link I think Corbyn and co have had quite a healing effect this week..." 1/2
Tory MP on Con reaction to Corbyn contd: "The danger is real so the self indulgence is stopping. Let's see if they stick to it eh!" 2/2

It's worth noting that the US are especially prickly about passenger aircraft since the UK and France effectively showed them up - big style - with Concorde.

(Sidebar: the US was begged invited to join the Concorde consortium. However, they had to decline when they realised the fact that state aid would be inevitable. As the quote I read went: it would have been politically impossible to subsidise a foreign project to see the rich and famous travel around on the US taxpayer)

Has anyone been to America and heard them tell you how the US gave the UK radar in 1938 ?

p.s. for the record, NASA have stated that the engineering in Concorde was more advance than for Apollo ...

De lurking!
Just read in the Evening Standard, ,page 4 , that 'Boris Johnson is launching a new Right Wing think tank pushing for a hard Brexit. He wants the UK to create independent trading arrangements with growing economies around the world and ditch European product standards!' !

For Chinese ones I expect...

The more it goes, the more I think the two big political parties, labour and conservatives, are going to implode.
And I don't think it will be as thing. The uk political scene needs new blood and more ability to represent the real population better (by having more choice available)

Today I sent DC2's school a letter about the (potentially unlawful) discrimination over my Irish passport. The advice on the last thread helped me decide to write it, and also helped with what to say, so thanks.

There is choice, doesn't have to be the two main parties, could vote Lib Dem, Green, Independent etc

Somerville congratulations

I remember the debate from the last thread Somerville. I am glad you did that. Please let us know what response you get. I know threads about threads are bad in MN land, but over on the other thread about sufficient progress on the Irish border, the Leavers are glossing over the problems of NI - Irish citizens. I wish I could laugh about it.

Fortunately for my family, Irish (RoI) DIL also took out British citizenship, so she can get round some problems.