Westministers: May Shares the Cake

[RedToothBrush]

May's Speech Abbreviated:

We still have nfi how we are going to do this. EU this is your fault. You sort it out. We are too lazy, workshy and fighting like high school children to work it out ourselves. Be our whipping boy.

I support democracy as long as I get to do whatever I like
I support human rights as long as I can ignore them when I like.
I support the rule of law except when it doesn't suit my agenda.

Waffle waffle.

"Creative", "Dynamic" PR for my Premiership.

Waffle waffle

We really need policing cooperation, PLEASE keep it with us. I know I threatened to withdraw this, but I'm sorry, I was wrong and a bit of a dick about this.

Gets to the point FINALLY.

"2 year transition period"

(With another time bomb lock which is still too short for IT departments. Nothing to do with the next general election, honest).

RULE BRITANNIA!

Polite Applause.

Brexit tories furious with brexit tories. Popcorn?

@PeteNorth303

1. Tories are manufacturing the political meme that the EU refusing to discuss trade is the stalling point in A50 talks.

2. It would appear that they have entirely misinterpreted Article 50 and believe this to be the whole of the exit process, start to finish.

3. This is yet another instance of them totally ignoring what the Commission has said from the very beginning and before invoking A50

Just read in the Evening Standard, ,page 4 , that 'Boris Johnson is launching a new Right Wing think tank pushing for a hard Brexit.

Thing is ... would he have the trust ?

Thanks. My DS backed me up to stand up and be counted on it, and its his scholarship at risk.

Well done somerville

Next time a leaver comes on a thread and accuses us of being hysterical can we point them back to the butter conversation?

Wow, Somerville what a DS! More congratulations. Keep a record of everything for future reference.
Rosa Parks was just tired and tired of racism so she sat down..............

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/27/britains-treatment-foreign-nationals-colour-meps-view-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
UK treatment of foreign nationals 'could colour' MEPs’ view on Brexit
Exclusive: Guy Verhofstadt writes to Amber Rudd about recent incidents including threat to deport Japanese woman

Verhofstadt warned that the UK needed to continue to comply with the letter and the spirit of EU law as long it was still a member of the bloc.

He suggested that should there be inconsistent application of EU law, MEPs were unlikely to look kindly on the UK’s proposal to withdraw some of the rights of EU nationals living in the UK, including that of being automatically allowed to reunite there with a spouse from a third country.

The article isn't just about Verhofstadt. Buried half way down is this:

David Davis accused of Brexit misconduct
A group of lawyers, academics and campaigners have lodged a series of criminal complaints against the Brexit secretary, David Davis, accusing him of misconduct in public office for his handling of Brexit matters.

Complaints have been lodged by the pro-EU Wolchover Action Group, named after the barrister David Wolchover who has previously raised the issue of Brexit’s legal basis, at different police stations around the country. Four of the complaints are being reviewed by a specialist crime unit and two have been forwarded to the Met police. Three complainants were told that it was not a police matter.

An email marked “sensitive” and seen by the Guardian from the office of the Metropolitan police commissioner, Cressida Dick, to one of the complainants states that Commander Stuart Cundy is dealing with the issue.

Well done, Somerville for writing to the school about discrimination.

To others of advanced years:

Yes, I remember the original Survivors series - I still have the VHS video cassette I bought with the first 3 episodes
< must check for tips ! >

Yes, I'm 61, so I'm one of those whose pension starts much later than I had presumed for most of my working life

• we grew up, worked and made plans on the basis that we would receive the pension at age 60

Fortunately for me, the state pension is not a key element of my retirement income. However, many women of our age have been left in poverty, especially those who can no longer work.

I'm dying cooling down at the gym (too knackered to move after 90 mins of our truly evil advanced lifting class )
so my rather later answer to Hollie ....

Why the hard right want a crash-out Brexit, not EEA / EFTA:

Because EEA / EFTA = small but manageable disruption
= best for 99% of the public,
but not much opportunity for the disaster sharks to profit

Big disaster = plenty of opportunity for disaster capitalists to make new fortunes
Even those who have managed to stock up on key essentials, e.g. medicines, will make a bomb from desperate people.

Maybe also fortunes to be made from cornering supplies of more mundane consumer products

My children's secondary school, I refused to give information about their nationality. (the newish census information that schools collect). Teacher congratulated me.

The UK needs to be treading v carefully, keeping old friends and if possible making new ones.
NOT talking tough about trade wars, ffs

If we get into trade war with anyone they could block our WTO quotas and schedules, hence our WTO membership.
The USA in particular has the clout to do this

Or maybe (unlikely) even the EU might block us at the WTO, if May goes 100% Ultra and leaves without paying any bills, agreed pension obligations etc

Even without making enemies out of our usual close allies, the UK might get blocked at the WTO by old, weaker enemies,
who never had the opportunity before to really kick the UK when its down
e.g. Argentina

or countries who will demand a price for not blocking,
e.g. former colonies wanting mroe visas, or more aid money / compensation for colonisation

or just Russia and China taking the opportunity to hit the UK economy, so that the Uk will have to make deeper defence cuts.

Good for you, world Hopefully most decent people will think first, before automatically supplying such information
The public has been groomed by business & govt to handover information without question

Always remember: Information is one of your most valuable assets

Always ask yourself: am I legally required to supply this requested info ?
If not, is it in my clear interest to do so ?
and what is the risk to me, or to other innocent parties, should I supply this info ?

The Leave Alliance‏*@LeaveHQ*

1. If the Tories have done their sums they know there is no possibility Brexit being concluded before the election.
2. They must also know by now that there is no possibility of them winning the next general election. They've blown that.
3. They know that by then Labour will have something approximating a workable position on Brexit that's better than theirs.
4. At the very least that will entail the single market. And that's why the Tories will walk out of talks very soon.
5. These Tories would actually torch the entire British economy for the sake of leaving & preventing a moderate process.
6. Most of them think the WTO option is workable. You're dealing with some exceptionally stupid and blinkered people here.
7. And some very very deeply corrupt influences pushing for a firesale of UK assets. They are manipulating Tory ignorance.
8. We do not think there is a sincere effort to conclude a deal with the EU. This whole thing is a sham. Pure theatricals.

1. Doing their sums doesn't seem, to be a Tory strength at the moment.
2. Not so sure about that. Not with intended gerrymandering over voter ID and because the polls are still pretty even - including those who got it close to the GE result. Depends on when the election happens.
3. They aren't worried about that because they think their own Brexit plan is better and are too arrogant to see their own plan as unworkable. See point 6.
4. Have you been listening to Corbyn today? Single Market still off the table.
5. Correct. Can't argue with that.
6. Also can't disagree with that.
7. Yes, very corrupt outside influences leading the Tories. Also, some of them ARE Tories.
8. Its difficult to argue with this, given points above. Also because so many of the are blinkered, arrogant and exceptionally stupid, even if they DID intend to deal a deal they are being led by the corrupt ones hell bent on torching the entire economy for their personal profit and to prevent a Labour government from being able to achieve their vision.

I'd like to believe the thread that European Editor for the telegraph Peter Foster @pmdfoster (who Charles Grant Charles @CER_Grant believes to be well connected and accurate when it comes to the Brussels side) which says the silence in Brussels is down to deals being made behind closed doors to essentially save face for May but to accept the EU's position.

However this is the Tories. And the EU is somewhat naïve about that...

accusing him of misconduct in public office for his handling of Brexit matters.
Chappers had suggested this about several of them. Interesting.
So many parallels with what's happened in US, and strategies to counter.

The one promising sign recently was Olly Robbins' move to No. 10.
He is a genuine EU expert, with so many useful contacts there. and the ability to use back EU channels if need be.

His move would make no sense if May was planning to just walk out.
I suppose he could be her emergency plan C, if a bluff fails and she desperately needs a quick EEA / EFTA safe harbour,
to avoid crash-landing at the bottom of the cliff.

On reflection, I may be trying to apply logic to a government in chaos, prepared to destroy the country to give Legatum their big disaster bonanza

Autarky's not just for Christmas, Michael.
The Government just suggested it could start a trade war with America
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bombardier-michael-fallon-boeing-donald-trump-commerce-tariff-defence-secretary-uk-government-a7969676.html
No words, really for this cabinet.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

Some thoughts on Corbyn/ Labour conf/ Brexit Thread:
1/10: Leadership calculate 2017 manifesto will yield majority, as centre shifts left
2/10: & anticipate chance to get that majority will emerge from irreconcilable Conservative differences over Brexit/ negotiation failure
3/10: so Corbyn speech not much new detailed policy, tried to marry popular left policies with persuading extra voters needed on competence
4/10 - real new thing was most comprehensive attack on lack of Government competence over Brexit negotiation - shied away before eg at PMQs
5/10 delicate tightrope on distinguishing between attacking competence of Government Brexit negotiation/ plan & being seen to be anti-Brexit
6/10 So Labour's position? Vague. Or Flexible....leave EU and any structures that might impede delivery of manifesto, but dont set red lines
7/10 but Corbyn today "guaranteed" "unimpeded access" to SM. Didn't rule out EEA yday. warned of manufacturing "going to the wall" under WTO
8/10 Offering manifesto-sceptic Business community opportunity for "certainty" on Brexit is the offer communicated in "cup of tea" offensive
9/10 Labour glacially moving in direction of Norway - but wont front run public opinion/ anticipated visible failure in Government approach
10/10 High level belief that noted Labour Leavers can sell an inevitable compromise on Brexit to the public, but the Conservatives can not

'cup of tea' offensive.
Remember lovely John Smith's 'prawn cocktail' offensive?

With this level of volatility in British politics, they'd be on a hiding to nothing to state a policy on a fiction.

complete sidetrack, but as an oldie ? I'm starting to notice the "complete listing" of points that appears to have become extant

e.g. point 1/10,2/10,3/10,...10/10

my observation being that it makes selective quoting that bit harder ....

Catalan leaders compare Spain to North Korea after referendum sites blocked

Regional government says online crackdown poses threat to free speech and calls on European commission to intervene

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/catalans-compare-spain-to-north-korea-after-referendum-sites-blocked

Spain was very keen that Catalan vote for independence didn't happen after the Scottish ref, as I remember.

Michael White @ michaelwhite
BBC World notes that. Bombardier Boeing tariff story is big in UK & Canada, but zilch in US. That's how trade deals with US work, Liam Fox

It IS a scandal that women born in the 1950s had so little time to prepare for a later pension age. This petition is still going strong (640,000) and collecting names quite fast.

you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/state-pension-age-for-woman-to-be-reduced-from-66-to-60

There's also one on the Govt website, which the Govt responded to within 2 weeks:

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200088

It does occur to me that one way of mobilising a co-ordinated civil dissent would be to contact all those disgruntled people who have signed petitions on various issues. (After all, they've given their email addresses.) Get them all together into an umbrella movement.

Not that I'm advocating anything like that...

Eurosluggard @ eurosluggard
Some thoughts on #DanHannan's decision to launch a new 'Institute for Free Trade'. 1/x
Now first up, to be clear: though it has become less fashionable in last few years, I actually agree that freer trade is a good thing. 2/
In principle, freer trade raises prosperity for society at large: lower prices, competition, productivity gains, export opportunities etc 3/
What market zealots often ignore or pay lip-service to: tho it benefits society as a whole, free trade creates winners & losers at home. 4/
So to ensure fairness & public support, it has to be combined with quite interventionist policies on tax, redistribution & labour market. 5/
Generally, ideological free marketeers are less committed to this part of the package which is essential for freer trade to be viable. 6/
When advocated by Brexiters like #DanHannan, there are other things about "free trade" that don't stack up or raise legitimate legit Qs. 7/
First of all the simple-minded ra-ra cheerleading that it's a simple, pain-free, magic bullet. Driving trade liberalisation is tough. 8/
Second, the dog-whistle lie that EU is highly protectionist. A view at least 25 years out of date- like generals fighting the last war. 9/
(Happy to admit UK deserves credit for fact EU no longer very protectionist & actually drives international trade liberalisation... 10/
...not least cos it's yet another example that gives lie to Brexshit claims UK had zero influence on EU & was always getting screwed.) 11/
All big complex economies are protectionist in some areas (US, Japan, Switzerland, Australia- EU not uniquely bad, as argued by twats). 12/
The only economies that practice pure free trade are small exposed economies with few resources or manufacturing- Singapore & Hong Kong. 13/
Singapore & Hong Kong simply not relevant as post-Brexit economic model for UK economy. Those arguing this are disingenuous or deranged. 14/
Third, Brexiters praising free trade, without acknowledging complexities & trade-offs, is phoney.
So why is #DanHannan, who is an intelligent man, an experienced politician, espousing such a vacuous, vapid position? Well... 16/
#DanHannan= intellectual father of Brexit. At time of Maastricht revolt UK euroscepticism about resisting further integration, not exit. 17/
Then something changed. Under Major's ill-starred govt (92-97) & 13 wilderness years after, Tory party went mad & lost its bearings. 18/
Against this backdrop, #DanHannan's dogged campaigning & oratorical brilliance helped make his cult mainstream. But there was a problem. 19/
You see, #DanHannan's euroscepticism driven by quixotic C18th/C19th notions of free trade, liberalism, sovereignty. All v nice. But... 20/
...those castles in the air, though noble, collided with equally old British values of common sense, pragmatism, don't rock the boat... 21/
On their own, Dan's ideals were never going to overcome the feeling that leaving the EU (for all its imperfections) was a bit nuts. 22/
But then we had world financial crisis, years of austerity & squeezed living stds, strained public services, migrant & euro crises... 23/
..combined with a putrid & demagogic media pursuing its own sinister or knuckle-headed political agenda... 24/
& a political class too craven or ideological to tell voters the truth: there's trade-off between taxation & quality of public services. 25/
In short, perfect storm: UK going through the wringer; liars & cowards in positions of influence blaming the EU bogeyman for all ills. 26/
Now I don't deny a minority of Leavers were swayed by #DanHannan's vision of free trade & liberty. But IMO the other stuff swung it... 27/
A country tempted to tear up its ties with the EU (rather than arguing its case from within) is not a calm, confident, balanced country. 28/
It is a country riven by unease, doubt, anxiety & insecurity. I do not claim that 52% of ppl all voted to Leave for the same reasons... 29/
But to claim concerns about migration or economic insecurity played no part simply defies both evidence & intuition. 30/
But, you see, #DanHannan hates that; he gets irked whenever anyone suggests racism or xenophobia were a factor for some of the 52%. 31/
#DanHannan routinely engages in #gaslighting whenever anyone tells of racism in post-EUref UK. Likes to reply, "Oh that never happened". 32/
Same with protectionism & free trade. #DanHannan can't accept that some Leave voters were rejecting globalisation & want more barriers. 33/
#DanHannan is offended by notion anybody voted to Leave for racist reasons or to reject the globalised free trade he holds dear. 34/
So essentially what #DanHannan wants to do with the #InstituteForFreeTrade is reshape the terms of the debate about what drove Brexit. 35/
#DanHannan believes in free trade with religious fervour & has a C19th conception of sovereignty. That's why he wanted UK out of EU. 36/
But idea Brexit was about noble ideals of liberty & about restoring glories of a golden age of free trade is looking increasingly shaky 37/
...and runs the risk of being eclipsed by the rising sense that Brexit was in large part driven by darker sentiments. 38/
#DanHannan wants to provide the pro-Brexit media with polished soundbites & factoids to bolster the liberty & free-trade narrative. 39/
He wants to preserve his good name for when the history books come to be written about Brexit (personally I think he's onto a loser). 40/
That's what #DanHannan's #InstituteOfFreeTrade is about. 41/41

Interesting given this just announced:

George Eaton @ George Eaton
Theresa May will make fierce defence of "free market capitalism" in speech tomorrow - risky when system isn't working for the majority.
May's stance is also notably at odds with her early positioning on capitalism.

Edward Sanders @ ESGsanders
Targeting centre field voters after Labours talk of socialist 'revolution' this past week?

Possibly.

Cut back to what Peter Foster said
This week at post-Florence talks there has been total silence from both sides. Iron discipline. That silence sound of deals being done /8
The UK is agreeing to meet obligations. The EU will help them "presentationally" to obscure the numbers /9

So May is launching a PR campaign to sell Brexit by selling free market capitalism along the same line as Daniel Hannah is proposing. Which is supposed to downplay the darker side (which May has taken a leading role in promoting with all the home office shit).

Why? For what purpose? Is this to appease the Daniel Hannans whilst and reframe the debate about what Brexit was about? (And in so doing free movement quietly is allowed to continue?)

I'm not quite sure but there's a curious alignment here. It's no a coincidence.

Anyone see this ?

Perhaps preppers could get some practice ? Or just sit out Brexit ?

It could be your chance to live on a deserted island.
The French government is looking for a new couple to take over the tiny Brittany island of Quéménès. The current occupants, who were chosen 10 years ago, have decided to leave.
Wanted: Person(s) to run Brittany island. Must be practical-minded and resilient. Farmhouse provided. Solitude guaranteed.

(contd)

Brexit deal - Polls: fieldword after May’s Florence speech

Survation

“If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that “no deal” is better than the deal EU has offered the UK,
which of the following is closest to your view?”

Accept her decision & NO DEAL: 47% (73% CON, 30% LAB)
Not accept her decision: 35%
DK 18%

Survation
“willing to pay 20 billion euros to the European Union during the post-Brexit transition period”

34% support it
47% opposed

ICM

“pay the UK’s ‘fair share’ into the EU’s budget for two years in return for two year’s access to the EU single market.”

41% support it
31% oppose

< Phrasing matters and will matter in selling any deal to the public.
Very difficult later to "sell" higher prices, unemployment, recession, getting poorer as being a success
However, an EEA / EFTA deal that minimises effects may also later be unpopular - like the Y2K issue, people may think all the oanic was unnecessary, because no bad things happened - but that was only because of actions taken ! >