Springbreeze, the Cork facilities etc arent the immediate issue here. They pay standard corporation tax at Irelands current level of 12%. The only way that would be impacted directly, is IF the EU standardised all corporate tax across the entire bloc. They would never never get approval to do that. They could however be impacted indirectly, by whats now being proposed on tech corp taxation, as well as the EU ruling on Apples tax affairs.
I know its a tad confusing but I'll try to explain. Let me start from the top.
Apple have set up a group of subsidiary companies in Ireland, I used the umbrella term 'HQ', but they are known as 'Apple Operations International', or AOI.
What they then do, is funnel all world wide sales through these umbrella subsidiaries. Most of these subsidiaries dont exist in physical, staff terms, they are lines on paper, but to meet certain requirements, they hold meetings, make occasional decisions and exist as an 'entity' for tax purposes. Its this set up, and the funnelling of world sales via Irelands low tax agreement (which is tiny, but its a tiny piece of a phenomenally huge pie), that brought the EU stamping down on them. The EU then demanded they pay 13 billion in back tax on the AOI dealings. Both Apple and Ireland are currently appealing this decision. (Which could take years).
So firstly you have to look at Apple Ireland in 2 separate entities. Theres the Cork facility which is ticking along nicely as a normal company would do, employing thousands and is hopeful to expand its data business, and then theres the AOI business. The furore about tech firms avoiding tax, specifically relates to AOI, and is pretty much what Google, Microsoft, Intel etc do, not to mention a whole raft of pharmaceuticals.
There is however, an undeniable link between the two.
Ireland firstly offered these tax incentives a/ to attract the world wide business revenue streams, the 'turnover' (tiny piece of a humongous pie) but b/ also to create new employment hubs, such as Cork. This worked great for both Apple and Ireland. As you say, it was an available english speaking workforce, working for a fraction of the cost of UK, or German or French counterparts. But the link is, Cork has been paid for by AOI. This is where the indirect impact on Cork may come. Can Cork stand alone, even if it retained its 12% corp tax? Can it indeed compete against chinese manufacturers, or UK export chains? Thats the billion dollar question when you then look at the EU, slamming the door on the AOI business.
Ireland would immediately lose the AOI business overnight, (its pretty much only lines on paper) if the EU succeed, as theres no reason whatsoever to then have AOI in Ireland. The second stream, Cork, would be subject to normal market movements.
What I then posted about, was possible, hypothetical ways the EU may indeed slam this door. The French Minister has tabled a proposal that corporate tax on all sales within the EU, should indeed be taxed on national turnover, basically at point of sale.
In short, where now all sales made in Germany for example, are 'accounted' for and taxed in AOI Ireland, they would be taxed directly in Germany. I plucked a figure of 30%, as Corp tax in both France and Germany is sitting around the 30% mark, but no one has actually suggested a figure as yet.
So it isnt a case of reducing the cost of an ipad today in the UK by 30%, its a case of, if this proposal succeeds, the cost will undoubtably increase by 30% (or whatever % the EU decide) in all EU states that buy Apple products. The UK would avoid this EU 'corporate tax ruling' due to Brexit, so yes, ipads could indeed be 30% cheaper here.
Ive used a guestimate, but I cant see the EU dropping below 25% or going higher than 30%.
There are of course a thousand more questions this raises, such as, will the corporate tax rate of the individual nation apply, rather than a standardised tax rate? It could, but with schengen, I cant see how theyd make that work. The Germans and French would simply cross the border and buy in the Netherlands. So imo, the only way they could implement this turnover corp tax, is a standardised tax rate throughout the EU. The implications of that are huge.
As I said, this is going to be a slow burner, and more than likely wont even get an inch off the ground. But the fact theyre throwing this idea around, really isnt good news for Ireland.