Westminstenders: The Maddest of May and Boris's Dare

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson just dared May to fire him.

That's what his little rant about £350 million buses is.

Meanwhile its been pointed out that HMRC literally are incapable of handling a no deal and can only cope with an EEA / EFTA deal with no tariffs.

And given how good and on time the government are with computer systems even in a best case scenario are extremely unlikely to crack it in time.

Which makes Hammond's talk of a civil contingence plan, look, well half arsed and lacking.

We also wouldn't have planes able to fly to Europe under a no deal as we would no longer be part of Open Skies. This could leave thousands stranded. But no biggie there.

Meanwhile if the Leave Alliance have things right, May is about to serve our one year notice on leaving the EEA making all these things a reality.

Which is less like shooting yourself in the head and more like shooting yourself in the head, chest, foot, arm, leg and face (for a second time), whilst being run over at the same time.

But hey, Boris Johnson has it sussed in his 10 point plan. Especially the point where he says Brexit will be a success.

If you call success ending democracy, becoming a dictatorship, starving everyone, bankrupting the country and causing civil unrest.

Rule Britannia.

Scary

Ooo a letter from that lovely Mr Baker:

@JolyonMaugham 16m
Here's the letter to @MollyMEP refusing to reveal Government's secret studies on how hard we'll be hit by Brexit. /1

Superficially, the argument is attractive: if the other side know how damaging Brexit will be it will harm our ability to negotiate. /2

But only superficially... Anyone who knows our position can model what it means. Our analysis is no better or worse than anyone else's. /3

If the EU wants to say 'x will harm your economy' they can point to any number of excellent third party studies. /4

So what is unique about our analysis? This. It, and it alone, has the power to cause acute political embarrassment to the Government. /5

Those who want the people to know the truth about what Brexit means for them can point to the study and say: 'You admit it causes harm'. /6

That - not this sententious guff from @SteveBakerHW - is the real reason Govt refuses to tell its own people what it knows Brexit means /7

And, whilst national interest can be be a good reason to refuse disclosure, avoiding political embarrassment to the Tories is not. /Ends

Laura Kuenssberg @ Bbclaurak
Cabinet to sign off Florence speech this morn on what's described as 'open and generous' offer to EU by one minister who is familiar with it

So it's crap then.

Best reply to tweet so far:

Is 'Open and Generous' like 'Strong and Stable'?

Hostages can't make offers.

Uh oh

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
And some ministers nervous about giving away too much - 'we can't give it away now, it's our only leverage' says one

We have no leverage, so it is crap

m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59c2dc0ce4b06f93538c4391/amp?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001
Corbyn Urged To Oppose Brexit Migration Curbs As New Report Warns Of 'Super-Exploitation'
Conference debate expected as pro-migrant motion accepted

Norman Smith @ BBCnormans
Theresa May to be flanked in Florence by David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond #brexitbirdlife #nest

Why is this not reassuring me in the slightest?

Tomorrow I am going to stand on a plinth in the town square and make an open and generous offer to my mortgage lender to pay off half of what I owe.

Eeeeeow -

There's a petition here calling for the government to publish its own Brexit Impact/Risk Assessments. I like to think this is something both 'sides' would like to see.

Signed, thanks twofingers

Conference debate expected as pro-migrant motion accepted
Appalling but necessary that this should be debated. Could be useful to flush out ukiplabour: Hoey, Flint, Skinner etc.

www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-my-vote-for-labour-was-not-a-vote-for-brexit

This one's put on 27 000 votes over night ^

Signed and shared, thanks twofingers

The impact assessments should have been completed and published before the vote to trigger Article 50. An argument that the UK negotiating position is prejudiced doesn't justify the secrecy.

In that letter from Mr Baker he says that the government will keep the UK parliament " at least as informed "as the EU Parliament. So that's Parliament hardly being informed at all then? Another example of the government circumventing parliamentary process.

Anyway, when negotiating, the only thing that prejudices your negotiating position is information that shows you are:
a) desperate for an Agreement; and/or
b) prepared to pay more than your current offer.

I suspect the leverage that TM has is money.
That's the only one she has.
More than anything else, it's the issue of how much it will costs and how/when to pay that will make the difference.

Or she thinks that EU citizens are still her bargaining power and will use us again to try and get what she wants

Which way to the cliff?

www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/theresa-may-weak-post-brexit-trade-deals-1.4294708
U.K. PM Theresa May, desperate for post-Brexit deals, plays a weak hand
Canada, U.K. form 'working group' on post-Brexit ties — but how much work can it do?

The view from Canada

Canada^

May can say whatever she wants in a speech tomorrow (I'm betting that it will only be reported in the Anglophone press anyway).

The EU have repeatedly (and correctly) stated they do no negotiate by speeches.

The BBC seems to have come a long way in a short time. It seems like only yesterday it gave Nigel Farage,radio presenter more airtime than any other politician.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028?SThisFB

" Think of it like this: if No Deal is so awful that we can never countenance it, we have a very weak position in terms of asking for concessions from the EU. So preparing for the consequences of No Deal situation is a good idea.
It is true that we cannot mitigate a lot of the risks inherent in a No Deal exit. For example, on aviation. Parts of financial services, the car-makers and big pharma companies will regard the whole idea as a living nightmare. That is why a lot of people regard the government's "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" rhetoric as bluster."

Slightly OT, but Frankie Boyle considers to combine insult and insight wrt Trump and North Korea:

www.facebook.com/FrankieBoyleFans/posts/1670909602950399

I particularly liked this gem:

Trump isn’t a military man, and salutes troops in a way that makes Benny Hill look like Stalin.

Theresa May to be flanked in Florence by David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond

Really there are more questions raised than answered:

• Liam Fox ? (Which is really a question in any context)
• Presumably Davies and Johnson will be on the right ?
• Anyone know how RPGs work ? We may never see them in the same hemisphere at the same time again.

Well now I want someone to put side-by-side photos of Benny Hill and Donald Trump saluting on the web.