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Brexit

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 10:55

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

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Thread gallery
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TheElementsSong · 16/09/2017 20:43

My own pov is hope for the best but plan for the worst

See, I think that is the only sensible approach.

Badders08 · 16/09/2017 20:47

😁👍

DrivenToDespair · 16/09/2017 20:55

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Badders08 · 16/09/2017 20:58

Sounds familiar...

😡😔

pointythings · 16/09/2017 21:00

Optimist DDs would not lose their Dutch citizenship because they are under 18. So for them it would not matter. For me it used to be about the cost - these days it is because I am so fucking angry about Brexit that I don't want UK shitty citizenship even if you paid me. And lastly, it's because I want options. I don't trust the UK to treat its naturalised citizens decently. I don't trust the UK to treat anyone decently, really.

LurkingHusband · 16/09/2017 21:07

Oh well .. just had a good laugh at Mock the Week. If nothing else, the satire is spot on. Hugh Dennis characterised the Repeal Bill as a homeless person digging through a bin to find the laws they like with Dara O'Briain (helpfully Grin) saying that was the bleakest vision for Brexit.

Now, where's that Wine

EternalOptimistToo · 16/09/2017 21:16

pointy I have similar discussions on my side.
Could get the British citizenship BUT really not happy about it.
On the other side, it would allow me to know that I can stay here with my dcs (added issue of a divorce and being unable to go back to France with the dcs wo exH approval). At least until they have both done their A levels (about 6 years).

Still haven't quite decided what would be best.

Somerville · 16/09/2017 21:21

Badders There are several really sensible reasons to get an Irish passport, even aside from Brexit. One is that as a neutral country, an Irish passport is really great for travel. It makes it less likely to be caught up in targeted terrorism. Of course this is pretty darn unlikely to begin with, so perhaps more pertinently, people the world over are friendly and helpful to Irish passport holders in a way they aren't to Brits (though prepare for lots of jokes about Guinness Hmm). DH has two passports and it is beyond useful as when one is lost or stolen, or when he suddenly realised one would expire right before our honeymoon, there was no rush to replace it.

Sympathies on stubborn husband though. Mine is trying to go back on our deal that our baby won't have a British passport. He thinks I'm the one sticking my hand in the sand, as I really can't envisage a scenario in which a child with a British father won't be able to get a passport at any later stage of their life if they should need/want to. Whereas he's worried about it.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 21:22

(paywall) Cruise passengers could be left stranded by Brexit, shipping chief warns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/16/cruise-passengers-could-left-stranded-brexit-shipping-chief/

Foreign tourists embarking on cruises at British ports risk being left behind
if Brexit leads to longer airport queues,
the head of a leading UK cruise provider has warned.

David Dingle, the chairman of Carnival UK,
said many international cruise passengers enter the UK at an airport before joining their ship.

But as cruise liners run on tight schedules,
he feared that the ships may not be able to wait for passengers trapped in long queues for passport checks at the border.

“Long immigration queues at British passports are anathema to us
– the hotel may still be there four hours later, the but the ship will have to sail,”
Mr Dingle said.

The cruise line chief, whose Carnival firm operates P&O Cruises,
also said it was crucial that ports continued to offer easy access for tourists.

“We need government to recognise both our needs and our opportunities as Brexit approaches,”
he said at a conference hosted by the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA).

“Crucially, we must now allow any excessive zeal in limiting entry into this country to affect the smooth processing of cruise customers arriving and and departing from our ports.”

“A 3,000-bed cruise ship bringing tourists into a British port relies on being able to disembark its passengers in little more than an hour

– failure to do so limits the experience ashore and British ports become unattractive.”

The cruise industry contributes roughly £3bn to the UK economy, and provides around 74,000 British jobs.

Of the 1.9m cruises sold in the UK last year,
more than half of them began in UK ports, such as Torquay, Liverpool and Holyhead.
.....
Airports have also warned that Brexit could lead to longer queues and create “severe disruption”
unless the UK’s Border Force hires more staff.

The Airport Operators Association (AOA), which represents 50 airports,
said they would have to spend millions on extra resources for immigration controls
if stricter passport checks were introduced.

The concerns about border queues were dismissed by a Home Office spokesman, who said 97 per cent of passengers arriving at UK airports were dealt with “within agreed service times.”

< but that is BEFORE Brexit ! >

SwedishEdith · 16/09/2017 21:26

He's basically shoved his head under a large rock in Brexit terms, choosing to avoid all news and information but just sort of insisting that we will be fine.

I just had a quick scroll at that other EU thread and I think that's pretty common. Lots of people are not reading any details - it's complicated, dry and depressing so who can blame them, in a way. And for lots of people, it's frightening what's happening in this country. Who wants to be frightened or stressed all the time? Some of us have a compulsion to know but, for some, it's too much. I do get incredibly frustrated with the "it's been decided, we must get on with it" vacuity though. I'm very much of the, "If you aren't angry, you're not paying attention" view.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 21:31

Outrageous if your DC are already facing discrimination in school, Somerville
Such actions are bullying N Irish people to get UK passports

With the DUP having the govt at their mercy, I expect more ignoring of discrimination against those N Irish who, like you, do NOT want to become British Angry

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 21:37

There is still the EEA/EFTAA Brexit which - even as a transition - would avoid most such problems

However, some Leavers are obsessed about stopping immigration and won't accept any delay in doing so
They control govt policy atm.

RedToothBrush · 16/09/2017 21:43

Alison McGovern‏ @Alison_McGovern (Labour MP for Wirral South)
THREAD: Some notes I made in Treasury Select Committee HMRC hearing yesterday 1/n
HMRC are currently in the midst of changing to a new customs system. But it’s a new system that wouldn’t cope if there is no deal.
The current system can manage 55million customs transactions.
New one = 100m. Estimate needed for hard Brexit? 250million
(Current HMRC customs change project has ‘amber’ warning from Infrastructure and Projects Authority)
There are 26 bodies across Government with a presence at UK border. This needs to be simplified.
But the ‘one government at the border’ project has been stopped given Brexit complications.
Plus, there are 130,000 British exporting companies that currently have no red-tape to deal with, but will have to after Brexit.
HMRC need to know what deal will be so they sort process. To meet 2019 deadline, they need to know by latest April 2018, pref sooner.
But negotiations are still about exit. Haven’t even started on new deal yet.
Am I the only one wondering why Brexiteers – especially ministers - haven’t got more to say? [fin.]

And there you have it.

Even the civil contingency plan won't cut it.

The government might gamble and think that they can force unilateral continuity.

If they do that gamble - and lose - then we are utterly screwed with no way to solve the problem because we literally do not have the capability or the capacity to do so.

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pointythings · 16/09/2017 21:43

Optimist I am in slightly better shape - DH is American, working for the US Air Force. We would be allowed to stay through him regardless. But recently our marriage has been on the brink and could still fail - he is doing rehab for alcoholism and if he goes back his old ways, it's curtains for us.

However, he is very anti-Brexit and would accept us decamping to Ireland or the Netherlands. I really want my DDs to settle outside the UK. This is not the country I fell in love with when I was 10. This is not the country I settled in 20 years ago.

RedToothBrush · 16/09/2017 21:47

Clareine Cronin‏*@actorandluddite*
Just had drinks w/ HMRC pal who explained impossibility of leaving w/o deal. New system being introduced can't cope w/being outside EEA/EFTA

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*
Have heard this from numerous sources.

But yet the "no deal" fanaticism lingers.

Remember that there are several clauses within the Repel Bill which make this EEA/EFTA impossible and May is apparently about to do a speech in which she gives our one year notice on EEA.

So within the next couple of weeks, I think we will start to get some idea of just how screwed we are about to be, and when we need to start thinking about that hoarding.

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RedToothBrush · 16/09/2017 21:56

Let this sink in.

May apparently wants to confirm we are leaving EEA next week.

If we leave EEA planes can't fly to Europe and our customs and excise don't have the ability to cope with duty after 31st March 2019.

Oh and there is the option of exiting sooner which seems to be seriously being considered.

But 'Brexit will hurt the EU more than us'.

Even if you believe in Brexit and are patriotic to the last about our opportunities outside the EU

HOW THE FUCK DO YOU JUSTIFY THIS AS BEING SANE IN ANYWAY?!

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DrivenToDespair · 16/09/2017 22:05

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 22:06

The Ultras have a knife to May's throat; she says what she's told or she'll be replaced

In Bojo's "10-point plan"....

Pt 7 states: Brexit will be a success
“This country will succeed in our new national enterprise, and will succeed mightily.”

That's not a "plan;" it's a wishlist
A delusion list.

RandomlyGenerated · 16/09/2017 22:11

May apparently wants to confirm we are leaving EEA next week.

Where is this from? I thought the speech was under wraps on pain of death?

DrivenToDespair · 16/09/2017 22:11

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 16/09/2017 22:11

Daniel Lambert‏*@DanielLambert29*
This is possibly the most amazing/ worrying tweet I have seen so far on #brexit. As an importer I fully understand what HMRC are saying.

In response to the Alison McGovern thread.

Oh and here's a gem:
amp.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ireland-will-block-next-phase-of-brexit-talks-over-border-459098.html
Ireland ‘will block next phase of Brexit talks’ over border

Dr Jennifer Kavanagh‏*@quiatimet*

Probably to do with constitutional issues on our side re good friday agreement.

www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/09/11/brexit-predicted-in-1990/
Brexit Logic - some comedy from 1990.

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SwedishEdith · 16/09/2017 22:20

Where is this from? I thought the speech was under wraps on pain of death?

Read RTB's post just as my partner said "she's going to announce long transition period next week". So, we shall see.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 22:20

The UK will no longer be party to the 900+ FTAs, MRAs, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that the EU has with other trade blocs & countries.

It is the NON-tariff barriers - quotas, certifications, customs inspections & sampling etc - that would hammer UK exports.

I'm still waiting for those trade deals with the rest of the world that is so eager to sign up with us.
ANY deals likely yet ?
Just Canada it seems

KilgoreTroutV · 16/09/2017 22:22

Today 21:00 pointythings
I am so fucking angry about Brexit that I don't want UK shitty citizenship

This comment deserves to go in MN Remain classics.

Who's forcing you pointythings?

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2017 22:23

Hallo, Ms May
Planet Earth here.
The UK bit you're supposed to look after .....