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Brexit

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 10:55

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

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Badders08 · 12/09/2017 19:11

Also not surprised by skinners vote
I think he's wrong but at least he's consistent 🤔

Peregrina · 12/09/2017 19:14

Interesting Swedish.

I will believe the Tory rebellion when I see it.

I wasn't surprised by Skinner because he's a Lexiter. I was astonished that he could walk through a Tory lobby - I would have expected an abstention.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:16

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

9 Tory MPs Grieve, Clarke, Morgan, soubry, sandbach, Hammond (S), Wollaston, lefroy, Neill sign amendment on Charter of Fundamental Rights

Same 9 Tory MPs have tabled further amendments on 3 aspects of "retained EU law"

Same 9 demanded final deal with EU be approved "by statute passed by Parliament" - clearly want more clarity than "meaningful vote" promise

Then 12 Tory MPs have put their name to another set of amendments on scrutiny of Henry VIII powers: same 9 plus Ford, Penrose & Tugendhat

Here's full list of amendments including opposition ones, currently tabled. 9 to 12 declared Tories. Balancing act.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2017-2019/0005/amend/euwithdrawal_rm_cwh_0911.pdf

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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 19:16

@MichaelLCrick
On #C4News at 7pm, Jeremy Corbyn on public sector pay, urging workers to join TUs, & we ask him if unions should break law on strike ballots

"If a law is wrong, it has to be resisted." says union leader. Cites Nelson Mandela and Pankhurst as examples.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:19

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*
Interesting that EU Withdrawal Bill debate is being round up by the Justice Secretary, not one of the cabinet Brexiteers or @DExEu minister.

Conor James McKinney‏*@mckinneytweets*

.@paulwaugh's take from this morning

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?
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SwedishEdith · 12/09/2017 19:26

I wasn't surprised about Skinner either but his wry comments at the opening of Parliament and to Tory MPs may feel a little hollow in future.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:29

From Lurking's thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3023495-April-2019-Brexit-has-happened-What-now

My take on what happens after Brexit:

I expect strikes followed by crack down on strikes before the next election. Which will lead to strikes deemed unlawful but spring from untenable domestic policy and tap into political undercurrents and issues that are being ignored. I can see it not just being a unionised thing

I do fully expect unlawful strikes. Its Corbyn's real power and what he knows best. I thought it would be after a crackdown, but its starting to look possible before that at this rate and before Brexit.

So I really am unsurprised by this. Seems to be happening in a slightly different manner / order to what I envisaged but certainly not an unpredictable scenario.

The glass cracked on 23rd June 2016. and the genie broke free on 8th June 2017 and has been on the rampage ever since. How do you get it back in the bottle?

May does not have that power. Nor does her party under any leadership.

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SwedishEdith · 12/09/2017 19:33

Interesting that Heidi Allen isn't one of those Tory MPs.

Yes, I did an "Up the workers" fist clench at the tv re Corbyn urging people to join unions. He's right. Often see employment issues on here where they're not in a union "because their employer doesn't like it".

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:34

Alexander Clarkson‏*@APHClarkson*
The debate over the Withdrawal Bill assumes it will define the country for generations. In reality it could be thrown upside down in months

Was retweeted by David Allen Green.

He also has written this:
jackofkent.com/2017/09/brexit-how-to-follow-the-european-union-withdrawal-bill/
Brexit: How to follow the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill – a practical guide and introduction

This is not an idiots guide to. Its still a nerds guide for non-lawyers.

And he's also written this for the FT:
www.ft.com/content/62d8f858-cc97-38cf-a5ce-cacde6c1550e
What’s next for the Brexit withdrawal bill

His selected extract from this here

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?
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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 19:36

This isn't cheery, sorry:

@faisalislam
2/5 Car industry chief Mr Wissmann also said that German industry task force is now looking at the "worst case" scenario of 'hard brexit'

@BBCNormanS
Treasury is preparing for a no deal outcome on Brexit - Hammond

@chrisgreybrexit
And serious 'no deal' planning not just a Treasury matter. In those circs, not alarmist to say we might need food and fuel rationing

LH may have been on the money for reasons for police pay rises.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:38

Its a list of Tories who have 'declared' publically. That doesn't mean other Tories don't agree and won't later support.

Note about the numbers here.

2nd Reading passed 326 to 290.

If 12 Tories vote with the opposition that makes it 314 to 302.

We better hope there are others who support the amendments and are trying to force an amendment by the government without the need of a parliamentary vote.

I do think there will be a few others. By my calculation we need another 7 Tory Rebels.

Remember those 7 Labour Rebels if it does go unamended and they vote with the government instead of their own party...

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Peregrina · 12/09/2017 19:39

The question for me is what exactly did the public vote for in the GE? Not Theresa May's hard Brexit, but what? We don't know.

I suspect a majority of us would go along with an EEA/EFTA option, which is more like we signed up to 43 years ago.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 19:40

LH may have been on the money for reasons for police pay rises.

LH is on the money. No 'may' about it imo.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:14

uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1BN24R
Toyota says Brexit talks drift could threaten UK production

Btw, what happens if the police end up being one of those striking illegally over pay and conditions....

....just throwing that possibility out there. Not sure just over 1% is going to cut it, if there's widespread striking.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:17

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/12/no-harm-leaving-euratom-germany-has-ruined-already-says-lord/
No harm in leaving Euratom as Germany has ruined it already, says Lord Howell

The former energy secretary, who voted Remain in the EU referendum, said Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power by 2022 was a "major blow" to nuclear development in Europe.

Healso admitted to being "not that worried" about Brexit's impact on the UK nuclear industry, which he claimed hasbeen stifled by the "old treaty systems" of the EU.

"I myself voted Remain but this is one area where staying in the old treaty systems of the European Union I don’t think was necessarily the best thing for European nuclear development," he said on Tuesday.

What about France?

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:21

Debate about Committee Membership just starting in HoC now. (I can't watch as Holby Shitty is on the tv. Priorities).

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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 20:24

I'll watch, I need to get back into soaps and learn to knit hats.
May's got a bit of previous with police federation hasn't she? Not legal for them to strike, but neither is how tories won several seats, or who paid for leave.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:30

Yesterday's Withdrawal Debate
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2017-09-11/debates/B10868CD-F096-47A2-84EE-A902C8A271BE/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Bill

Here are a couple of extract of Chris Bryant's contribution.

Chris Bryant (Rhondda) (Lab)
This Bill is utterly pernicious. It is dangerous, it is fundamentally un-British and it has at its heart a lie. It pretends to bring back power to this country, but it actually represents the biggest peacetime power grab by the Executive over the legislature, by the Government over Parliament, in 100 years. It allows the Government to drive through changes to any law by the simple fiat of a Minister. That includes the powers of the House of Lords, the date of the next general election, the composition of the House of Commons and the number of Ministers. In the most extreme instance of all, it allows Ministers to alter the very Bill itself. That is a dangerous spiral of autocracy. Some Members seem to think it is a compliment to refer to them as Henry VIII powers. I know that Henry VIII, in 1536, legislated to allow two MPs to come here from Calais, but on the whole the Tudor exercise was not a proud demonstration of democracy. These are clauses of which Erdoğan, Maduro and Putin would be proud.

and

Since 1950, Parliament has rejected only 11 statutory instruments, so we know that this is an autocratic process, but let me get to a much bigger worry for me: clause 9. I am sure that hon. Members have read it. It states very clearly:

“Regulations under this section may make any provision that could be made by an Act of Parliament (including modifying this Act).”

When I said last week in the House that this was truly exceptional, all sorts of Government Members, including Ministers, came up to me and said, “Oh no, there are hundreds of examples. I’ll give you examples by the weekend.” The first example I was given was the Scotland Act 1998, but it does not apply. Section 113(6)—I am sure the right hon. Member for West Dorset (Sir Oliver Letwin) will know this subsection—states:

“But a power to modify enactments does not…extend to making modifications of this Act or subordinate legislation under it.”

In other words, the Minister who told me that had missed out the word “not”, rather conveniently.

Then the hon. Member for Stone (Sir William Cash) came up to me and said, “No, you’re completely and utterly wrong. The greatest constitutional expert in this country”—I think he might have meant himself—“tells me that section 75 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 gives the Government the right to change the Act itself by statutory instrument”. Unfortunately, he was wrong as well. It actually states:

“If…it appears to the Secretary of State…that…the enactment is capable of preventing the disclosure of information”—

in other words, gives the Government too much power to prevent disclosure—

“he may by order repeal or amend the enactment for the purpose of removing or relaxing the prohibition.”

It is a measure that gives the Government not more but less power. Even the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which applies to circumstances when by universal accord—probably—the Government would need emergency powers, and which builds on previous Acts of Parliament, states categorically, in section 23(5):

“Emergency regulations may not amend…this Part of this Act”—

in other words, all the major elements of the Act.

If hon. Members who are trying to cover their tracks by saying, “We think all this secondary legislation business is terribly worrying, and obviously we’ll change that in Committee”, really care about those matters, they should consider the Government’s track record. What have they done recently? They engaged in what I would call jiggery-pokery with the DUP to ensure a majority—and let us hope we have a vote on Estimates Day on the £1 billion for the DUP; they delayed setting up Select Committees until now to make it impossible for us to scrutinise many of the measures going through during the summer months; and tomorrow, they are trying to make sure that, for the first time in our history, a Government without a majority in the House have a majority on every single Committee. If that does not make one question the bona fides of this Government, nothing will, and that is why I say to hon. Members: do not sell your birthright for a mess of pottage; vote against this Bill!

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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 20:35

Valerie Vaz is being barracked grotesquely by the grotesques. Gruesome.

Bryant's a bit of a star, what with that article on the aristos and that speech.

lalalonglegs · 12/09/2017 20:41

Members: do not sell your birthright for a mess of pottage; vote against this Bill!

Chris Bryant was great Star. Not about Brexit, but he wrote a very good piece about the aristocracy's stranglehold on power in the UK. It's long but worth it - if you like being filled with righteous indignation Grin. He has a book out on the subject.

lalalonglegs · 12/09/2017 20:42

Gah, woman, you beat me to it.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:46

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-ports-chaos-no-deal-warning-hammond-a7943671.html
Brexit: Ports could plunge into chaos if UK crashes out of EU without deal, Philip Hammond admits
The Chancellor accepted the British economy has been 'overshadowed' by Brexit negotiations

This is worrying. But also a positive step in so much that at least there is finally an admission of this by a member of government and perhaps start contingency planning.

Only 14 months behind us.

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BiglyBadgers · 12/09/2017 20:46

The pay cap change has been driven by the prison officers, hasn't it? There's been a lot of noise from them this year. Mind you, I did read on David Allen Green's feed that the pay rises will be 2% instead of 1%, but there will be no more money for the prison service...

Just on the public sector pay cap. The above is key. The Government is not increasing the budget, so they are basically saying some police can lose their jobs to pay for a rise for the remaining police. It also will allow the Government and media to say that the reason police numbers or services are cut is because selfish police officers wanted higher pay.

This "rise" will not and is not supposed to win over the police, it is to win over the public, who are starting to demand decent pay for public sector workers, while shafting the police even further. If the police continue to complain the hope is they will be seen as ungrateful by the public.

My feeling is that they are testing this tactic on the police, who can't strike and have limited ability to make their complaints known, before they do the same for nurses and other public sector workers. This should not be seen as an end to the cap. It is not, it is just shifting the money about a bit.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 20:59

The Leave Alliance‏*@LeaveHQ*

1. Our intel is that May is going to announce in her speech that she's to give formal notice to leave the EEA.
2. And, in an attempt to by-pass the Commission, extend an invitation to all the EEA members to enter into direct talks with the UK
3. This would be to create a new EEA Agreement, under a different name, without the four freedoms ... just trading rules.
4. She's not going to walk away, but it will be a take it or leave it offer. Either take it or we walk.
5. It would appear they are going with the Legatum template.
lif.blob.core.windows.net/lif/docs/default-source/publications/briefing-cost-of-eea-membership-for-uk-legatum-institute-special-trade-commission-november-2016-pdf.pdf?sfvrsn=4
6. The idea that existing EEA members will seek to weaken their agreement is delusional. Close to insane.
7. If this is the UK proposal then May will end up with egg n her face and we'll be back to square one - or walking away with nothing.

Anyone surprised by this gem?

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OlennasWimple · 12/09/2017 21:00

Love Chris Bryant

Much less keen on Valerie Vaz, but the baracking shows the very worst of Westminster

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