Westminstenders: The wrong homework

[HashiAsLarry]

I'm no rtb but I'll give it a shot, though her efforts deserve much more than me.

The August negotiation round has, well, fizzled out in much the same way as any other. It's taken over a year to get to written position papers and there's still no clue as to a direction from the UK government.

Japan, meanwhile, is about to sign off on a deal with the EU. A deal we want to copy.

@faisalislam
^but if post brexit britain's trade deal with third biggest economy in world is to be based on Brussels' deal, what about rest? TTIP? Canada?
...when PM signs off statements like this on primacy of EU-third party deals, one wonders how temporary the temporary customs union will be^

The NHS is now launching a drive to recruit foreign GPs, like the ones that have left thanks to Brexit. It's a good job they'll be £350m a week better off now. Oh hang on...

Household personal unsecured debt (excluding student finance) is now a record £200 billion. Does that count?

Apparently May is going to make an announcement on the 21st September which will put brexit negotiations back a week. Just in time for the tory party conference.

The point is that these assertions by Project fear definitely increased votes for remain just as the constantly trotted out £350m on the bus may have got votes for leave. I didn't bring this up I was just correcting an assertion up page.

Also while I'm at it. DD did not say we would be looking at a Norway deal at all. In fact the opposite. He was answering a question from the Iceland ambassador about joining efta/ EEA on a temp. basis as a possible transition after Brexit. DD said it had been looked at but dismissed as it wouldn't save any time. SO the idea that the Gov. is sliding towards that option is entirely wrong.

Unemployment

My understanding of Osbourne's forecast is that most of it was what would happen over a few years and he was considering a WTO Brexit

Clearly he would have been very daft to say half a million jobs would go in the first month, whatever form of Brexit he expected Cameron to announce.

However, the Leaver economist Minford admits - or happily states - that the WTO Brexit he advocates would mean the end of Uk farming and manufacturing
Those 2 sectors employ about 8% of the Uk workforce, so half a million job losses seems reasonable

I was an adult during the 1980s and I remember unemployment increasing by 2 million because of MrsT's policy of de-industrializing / which Tories called "no longer supporting lame ducks"

The idea that the govt is moving towards a Norway deal is because it keeps being referenced more, now.
The change in Labour party policy makes this more likely, if they genuinely do vote against key bills AND if a few Tories pluck up courage to join them.

With the clock ticking, the Tories might be faced with a choice of a Brexit on Norway terms, or the default no deal A50 - which is what automatically happens if time runs out.

Mostly when DD says he won't do something, he caves in e.g. after promising the "row of the summer" over the EU scheduling trade last of all, he agreed the next meeting to this.

Daft Dave and his "blue sky", "imaginative" solutions to all the (many) problems of Brexit.

It's 'pie in the sky', and 'imaginary' solutions.

The GPD had gone down too. From the second position in the EU to the bottom of the league table.
Does that count?

The biggest causes of slow progress are within the UK's power to change:

• Outrageous, but lazy DD only works 3 days per week (according to many leaks from his own dept)

• The UK being unprepared and unable to agree a policy agreed within the cabinet - that has hopefully been sorted now, or will be after the party conference

• The UK deliberately delaying to the last possible moment trying to get its cake deal, trying to avoid internal Tory party fury that would happen if any UK red lines are crossed

The kind of access the UK wants requires the 4 freedoms.
Either accept this or accept Brexit is on WTO terms, with a post-Brexit FTA which will have far reduced trade access to the EU.
Then build the infrastructure for customs; also build the UK agencies and agreements to replace the functions of the EU ones, e.g. for flights

It's GDP growth that is at the bottom of the EU, not the level of GDP itself

However, the Uk has dropped from the world's #5 largest economy to #6, behind France with a smaller population
In fact India claims to have overtaken the UK, so that the UK is #7, but I'm not sure if I believe their figures

From a Leaver perspective

Highly knowledgeable articles from longterm Leaver Richard North
about the disastrous consequences if the UK doesn't achieve some sort of Norway EEA / EFTA Brexit:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86405

"May's decision to leave its Single Market.
the disruption to our trade would not just be a car crash or a train wreck,
it would be a whole fleet of jumbo jets crashing down on our entire economy."

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86370
"One can genuinely see a state of emergency being declared,
with the Army called out to escort truck-loads of food to besieged supermarkets"

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86375

"chaos at our ports"
"bare shelves in our supermarkets"

On his blog recently, there were comments from JDD, a senior civil servant, who North knows personally, i.e. not a troll or fake

JDD was asked if the ministry hadn't made contingency plans for a WTO Brexit

• because there has been no start on building customs infrastructure etc

He said the very first plans they made were for declaring Martial Law if an emergency situation results after Brexit, resulting in public order problems
< i.e. riots as the supermarket shelves empty and prices rocket >
He said troops would be called out, public gatherings of more than 4 people banned, plus other alarming measures.

I'm really hoping they were just planning for a remote contingency

public gatherings of more than 4 people banned, plus other alarming measures.
Well it's a good excuse not to go to dinner with the ILs

All these negative outcomes happened largely because of a sniff of article 50 too, not just after its triggering. Yet because no one got it bang on, it's all rubbish. Not that anything leave has claimed has come into fruition, nor is likely too. But the accuracy of the remain camp must be refuted because, you know, experts are damaging to feels.

You really all baffle me. Why on earth would you think that we want unfettered free trade without enshrining our food and health standards within any deal is completely bonkers to me. You really must think Brexiters are all loons!!! There is no way we would have free trade deals like that. Why on earth would we? [Corcory]

You will because you will have no choice. There will be quid pro quos in trade deals with the US, China, New Zealand, Brazil and other countries that do not currently have trade agreements with the EU.

The US and China in particular have food standards that are different from those of the UK/EU. Chlorinated chicken is the tip of the iceberg. Then there are farm subsidies to consider as potential impediments to deals.

Plus, as inflation kicks in (this has already been noted as the pound falls) food will become more expensive and governments will be sorely tempted to import that cheap chicken or those tomatoes lovingly handpicked by people living in shanties in California whose children do not have health insurance and do not go to school.

corcory, I might not have agreed with many of your posts but there was always a certain logic behind them; your latest comments smacks of desperation.

It's going really, really badly.

That's impossible to deny right now.

You appear to have reverted to pointing out what hasn't happened yet, even though we've not actually left, as if it is some kind of comfort

When are Leavers going to start to get angry about the fact not even they are getting what they want out of this?

BigChoc this is both frightening and unsurprising.
IF the uk ends up in such a situation that there a huge shortage of food etc..., there will be no other solution than that.
I also suspect this would happen before the day when we will have actually left because people will be aware and will be stockpiling as much as they can.

What I am about is the idea that part of government plan is to say that such a situation is likely enough to happen that they have though about a plan. Esp For a government that doesn't seem to have any plan at all or is it that they just do NOT want to tell us about the plan as it's easier to control the population that way??

I do love that Verhofstadt has made an announcement about 21st September on May's behalf.

newsthump.com/2017/09/04/uk-brexit-team-furious-as-eu-threatens-to-keep-british-people-dangerously-well-informed/
UK Brexit team furious as EU threatens to keep British people dangerously well-informed

Yet because no one got it bang on, it's all rubbish.

Exactly! We're practically down to quibbling about timing of when the crap stuff happened/is happening/will happen, and being invited to conclude that everything Remainers predicted was therefore wrong... furthermore we should consequently conclude that every wonderful thing Brexiteers promised is therefore correct (and in this case, timing shouldn't matter a jot - 20-30-100 years, all the same!).

Faisal Islam‏**@faisalislam**

Long read on where we are re Brexit, Parliament, diplomacy, economics, May Corbyn, "Norway in drag", & no No Deal...
news.sky.com/story/sky-views-the-next-three-months-are-totally-unpredictable-11019976
Sky Views: The next three months are totally unpredictable

Faisal Islam‏**@faisalislam**

main points Thread:
1. Significant shifts over summer in position papers, in attitude to multi-year transition, "indirect" jurisdiction etc
2. really interesting thing is that there has been no pushback from Tory Brexiteer MPs on what are a blurring of their red lines at best
3. economy - delicate, over 6 months now slowest GDP in EU - corporates informing Gov of activation of no deal contingency plans by year end
4. Eg unsolicited letter to top Cabinet minister from British captain of industry imploring Government to stop Brexit for the economy sake
5. But GE2017 psephology also changing things -its why Labour gone for SM/CU trans (polls well)..Tories pondering loss of Remainer mid class
6. Told of various Tory inquests into what happened during elex - including why CCHQ didnt believe warnings from sitting MPs in Remain seats
7. Labour's top team have had doors of business flung open since GE - much more interested in Brexit than their tax plans...
8. Eg McDonnell meets with top FTSE 100 chief executives, Labour telling British biz to tell them what they're telling Dexeu on Brexit
9. Significant Cabinet hope German election will unlock "business-minded" progress on Brussels negotiations - though not reciprocated yet
10. Cabinet minister re "significant progress": "My hunch is it won't happen till Christmas".
11. Corbyn now finds himself feted by Europe's left leaders since elex, after being bit of pariah, invited to meet PMs, will tour later
12. Now evident weakness in negotiating hand coupled with negotiating time disappearing, limits possibility for bespoke UK Brexit solution
13. So certainly for the transition period, difficult to imagine anything other than EEA terms offered... perhaps renamed as something else
14. Tory Brexiteers face choice between certainty of some Brexit, or pursue perfect "clean"/hard Brexit and leave it to Commons arithmetic
15. Single Market is not a legally recognised term. Internal market is. As is the "European Economic Area". Pedantic semantics will matter
16. Public squabbling over divorce bill less important than constructive EU-UK progress & narrowing of gap on citizens rights and governance
17. It boils down to the difference between "regulatory outcome equivalence" and supranationally-enforced "harmonisation"...
18. And also difference between direct jurisdiction and "quasi-direct" jurisdiction (Efta Ct). Indirect jurisdiction is not a legal concept
19. And on those new trade deals - there's a difference between freedom to 1. Negotiate deals, 2. Sign deals and 3. Implement deals
20. Expectation in Government that SNP MPs would not vote for another election under Fixed term parliament act (which stays) - helps PM
21. "Norway in drag" is a concept I just invented to describe wholesale adoption of large tracts of EEA agreement as end state
22. European capitals have been told to watch out for PM's new speech on Brexit later in September

"Norway in drag"

I think many of you have forgotten who are a lot of the conservative voters - they are the farmers and country side folk.

These are the people who voted for Brexit, despite the reliance of many on cheap seasonal labour from the EU and despite the EU farm subsidies and the single market that has kept them in business for the past few decades. Many of them have been dismayed since the vote that the supply of labourers has dried up.

They are not exactly the sharpest tools in the shed.

Returned from holiday ( which noticeably cost twice as much as it would have done before this whole unbelievable debacle) and am catching up! Thanks Hashi and RTB, as ever.

Do we have any idea what the 21 September is all about? A key member of the team going maybe? A concrete offer of paying our exit dues? DD being given a 3 day per week job share ...Treeza going?

Sainsbury’s CEO warns post-Brexit rules could leave food rotting at UK border

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sainsburys-ceo-mike-coupe-brexit-food-eu-goods-uk-border-a7927606.html

“If you take our fresh produce supply chains, for example,
we put things on a lorry in Spain and it will arrive in a distribution centre somewhere in England, and it won’t have gone through any border checks.

“Anything that encumbers that has two effects:
it adds cost
and it also has a detrimental effect on freshness – if you’re shipping fresh produce from a long distance, even a few hours of delay can make a material impact.”
.....
the British Retail Consortium said last week that food prices, already soaring following the Brexit-induced collapse in the pound, could rocket further
unless measures to tackle red tape and improve ports are put in place before Britain exits the bloc in March 2019.

Oh god. You don't think she's going to call another general election do you?