Westminstenders: The wrong homework

[HashiAsLarry]

I'm no rtb but I'll give it a shot, though her efforts deserve much more than me.

The August negotiation round has, well, fizzled out in much the same way as any other. It's taken over a year to get to written position papers and there's still no clue as to a direction from the UK government.

Japan, meanwhile, is about to sign off on a deal with the EU. A deal we want to copy.

@faisalislam
^but if post brexit britain's trade deal with third biggest economy in world is to be based on Brussels' deal, what about rest? TTIP? Canada?
...when PM signs off statements like this on primacy of EU-third party deals, one wonders how temporary the temporary customs union will be^

The NHS is now launching a drive to recruit foreign GPs, like the ones that have left thanks to Brexit. It's a good job they'll be £350m a week better off now. Oh hang on...

I certainly wouldn't expect Brexit to be high on the list of priorities for EU27 countries. Why should it been?
As for the UK suddenly 'panicking' and wanting to meet more often, well I really don't think they are panicking I feel we are quite within our rights to want to meet more often considering the amount needed to go through especially in the 'divorce bill' which we need to go through line by line now.
I would be more than a little surprised if all the EU negotiators only worked on Brexit one week in four and returned to their day jobs for the other three!
As for the fact that it was us that triggered article 50 , well we had no choice if we wanted to negotiate with the EU. They wouldn't talk to us until we had triggered it and it stipulates we have 2 years to make a deal so our hands are tied.
And I for one always knew that a Norway EEA deal was a more expensive route it was explained pre Brexit.

Lurking - Leavers asked after the referendum what all the fuss was about because we were told by the remain camp in no uncertain terms that the UK would fall apart straight after a leave vote - didn't happen.
Conversely remainers asking 'where all the great deals are' are a bit daft as we all know we can't do any deals until we are out as you very well know.

The future is looking dubious for Airbus plants in the UK, and their UK suppliers.
www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/03/britain-aerospace-sector-could-be-priced-out-after-brexit

Mass market aircraft are now made on a continental scale (including in states that are continental in size like the US, and China before long), where there are no barriers to the movement of components and people.

Leaving the single market and customs union is likely to scupper Airbus UK.

"well I really don't think they are panicking"

Well, the only reason I can think of as to why they're not panicking, is that they don't understand the situation.

Which, unfortunately, seems eminently possible...

Corcory I'm sure that EVERYONE is talking about great or disastrous things will once the UK has left the EU (So in two years time), not just after the referendum or after triggering Art50.
We all know, assuming we are all intelligent people, that before the uk has left, there will be only small changes.
And there is no point saying 'look nothing has happened!' From either side.

What I personally find worrying is that those small changes have already made a big difference (see the GPD for example or the issue with the lack of doctors and nurses on the NHS), as in one that we can all feel already.

I also remember clearly that the leavers were convinced they could start negotiating FTA before the UK had officially leftbthe EU. Plenty of talks that they just couldn't stop us etc....
Ive noticed that no one is talking about getting those magnificent deals before the uk has left the eu anymore. Maybe because the government has found out this will be hard. Or because other countries have said that they dint want to yet. Or maybe because the government has actually finally agreed that the one most important trade deal it can reach is with the EU (because that's the one group the UK is making the most business with)
The consequence of that is that, if there isn't a trade agreement with the EU or if its is not as good as the uk had before, the uk WILL suffer accordingly.

Almost 6 months in and the first hurdles haven't been cleared yet.

If I were in government then I would be panicking given that in practical terms companies are going to need to know where Brexit is headed in the next 6 to 12 months.

But then the government still seems to be arguing amongst itself as to what it actually wants (which is different to what the EU27 will agree to anyway).

What I'm finding interesting is to see how the uk is slowly but surely moving away from the cliff edge towards a Norwegian style of agreement.
That's what DD was mentioning in Washington.
That's what all the proposals that the uk amounts to - we want the same but please give it a different name (ECJ to name a few).
I suspect that this is where we are going. hoping that the Europeans Parliament will agree to it and thatbthe UK hasn't upset so many people in the last 12 ~ 18 months that they have become obstructive

I also think it will cost the uk a lot. Both because the uk will still pay something to the eu. And because it will not have a word to say about the decisions taken by the EU.

I don't expect Brexit to bite hard until at least 2 or 3 years AFTER March 2019 tbh.

Whats happened so far is nothing.

Ive noticed that no one is talking about getting those magnificent deals before the uk has left the eu anymore. Maybe because the government has found out this will be hard. Or because other countries have said that they dint want to yet

I would be astounded if part of any trade deal with the EU did not have a clause preventing the other party from negotiating with any individual EU state.

As indeed the EU constitution would prevent any EU member state (UK waves) from negotiating outside the UK.

I seem to remember George Osborne talking about a Treasury report into the 'immediate shock' of the Brexit vote to leave. So there was talk of an immediate effect from project fear.

You mean this one treasury analysis done in may 2016?

Oddly, though it's all predicated on triggering article 50 immediately so the figures aren't going to be right, it's amazing how many of the issues it raised that are suddenly being touted as new issues and/or EU intransigence.

Osbourne did talk of a punishment budget but as Cameron didn't trigger article 50 straight off but quite instead, allowing the BoE to put their disaster plans instead, it was roundly decided it wasn't necessary.

It remains to be seen as to when rather than if that budget is coming.

Corcory, does it really matter now what George Osborne said over a year ago? There are endless posts here and links to reports pointing out what ill effects are ACTUALLY being felt now.

Whether there was or was not an immediate shock seems like a pretty petty, after the fact thing to be quibbling about when there are so many current actual issues to talk about.

Corcory - there was nothing to say when we had to trigger A50. What was stopping the UK doing some planning in the first place? E.g. working on the assumption that EU citizens were unlikely to stay, what plans were they making to plug the gaps in the NHS? None as far as I can see - even reinstating the bursary system for nurses and midwifery students would have been a welcome step forward.

Car manufacturers work on a Just in Time system. What plans have you seen to build more factories to make parts and train up new staff?

Fruit picking - admittedly this is more difficult because the indigenous population is getting increasingly elderly and fruit picking requires fitness and stamina. Plans to get round this? Have you seen any?

Perhaps May and the stooges could have given some thought to these issues before they invoked A50.

BTW I thought Fox was going to come back with some trade deal on 24th July. Did I miss it?

Yes corcory, but that was because David Cameron said that if the country voted to leave the EU, Article 50 would be triggered immediately after the referendum, which would no doubt have precipitated a giant economic shock and catapulted us straight into recession. Instead, he buggered off and left everyone else to clear up his mess.

BTW I thought Fox was going to come back with some trade deal on 24th July. Did I miss it?

God, I'd forgotten about that. Guess the whole country missed it.

There were two reports. the one I am referring to is the one published on the 23rd May 16. You are right A50 wasn't triggered immediately, however it has been now. Have any of the things, apart from the reduction in the value of the £ happened? There was supposed to be an increase of 500,000 unemployed, a house price fall, a fall in GDP, etc etc.

Prices have certainly been increasing.The uncertainty is causing investment to stall. The exodus of health care staff and scientists is happening now, and staff are not coming to replace them. Do non of those things count?

House prices are falling...

Do non of those things count?

I guess they don't.

I'm really not sure why it's confusing that a report based on something happening at X point wont not be accurate when said event didn't happen.

We can probably accurately assume there's not been an update on that report as the government have steadfastly refused to look into, well, anything.

Of course they don't count.
Remember we have the non existent hoards of students ready to take those roles up right now.

Sterling has collapsed. Does that count?