Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nuclear-fusion-research-safe-cheap-power-theresa-may-uk-eu-scientists-energy-tony-dunne-uk-a7913061.html?amp
Brexit risks nuclear fusion breakthrough promising cheap power revolution, claims leading scientist

Exclusive: Professor Tony Dunné attacked Theresa May for raising a 'political wall' between scientists

As always thank you Red

Meanwhile in America things are starting to look dangerous. Trump just pardoned a guy who had committed a bunch of crimes against the Constitution and in line with white supremacist thinking. He's just told all the Nazis that the law doesn't matter. He can pardon them anyway.

This is huge. And in line with setting up a shown down if he gets impeached and widespread violence. And if he doesn't, it sets up widespread violence in reaction to unconstitutional discrimination and abuse by government.

Whilst he hides behind a category 4 hurricane (Katrina was a 3) where people have been told to write their name on their arm just in case, so bodies can be identified.

Trump's message to Texans?

'Good Luck'.

Yep. Really.

Oh and anyone been considering what happens when we slip from the G7? Do we get kicked out and the new no 7 takes over? Shall we pencil that in for 2020?

Also re Labour and the single market.

How many phone calls have been made over the summer to Tory MPs? Have they been doing some head counting in parliament over it?

Want to look out for that opposition motion about the single market? Watch the government scrabble about for a way to defeat it. And the Tory whips go into melt down with not so much arm twisting as Tory MP waterboarding.

No one tell McDonnell in advance though. His Brexit vision of us all being back down the mines and back in the 1970s would be shattered.

The UN has condemned the Conservative government for creating what it calls a “human catastrophe” in the UK. It follows a previous report which stated that the Tories had committed “grave” and “systematic” violations of human rights on British shores. And the UN accused the government of using a “smoke screen” and “misusing statistics” to try and cover its tracks.

The UN Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD) has been meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. It has been assessing how well the UK government is sticking to its obligations under the UN Convention on the Rights of Disabled People, which the UK government ratified in 2009. The UNCRPD has been hearing evidence from disabled people’s organisations (DPOs), charities, and NGOs. But it has also been hearing counter-arguments from the UK government

www.thecanary.co/2017/08/24/breaking-un-just-accused-tories-creating-human-catastrophe-uk/

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37899305

The document was reported by bbc in Nov 2016, the most recent condemnation by UN of british human rights violation is absent, like so many other things, from msm in britain.

Thank you red

Placemat king, as we now say on these threads.

Sorry I'm not getting it.

I'd I understand right, Labour have said that they want a transitional arrangement essentially on current EU membership terms for four years. After that? It's still unclear. Seems pretty close to what they've been saying all along. And this is supposed to be a "great policy shift".

It is encouraging- perhaps this is a device to maintain the status quo until the next election, perhaps even (as has been hinted) a step towards trying to shift public opinion which will be necessary if a true anti Brexit stance is to be politically viable.

When I read Starmer's piece I worried it would be too Remainy for the Brexiters and too Leavy for the Renainers, neither one thing nor the other. Perhaps I am way out of kilter with public opinion! Wouldn't be the first time.

Placemat king too
Thanks as usual red

When I read Starmer's piece I worried it would be too Remainy for the Brexiters and too Leavy for the Renainers, neither one thing nor the other.

My own feeling on this was that more paid up Labour members voted for Remain, and have been ignored for far too long. The Leave voters in the 'Labour heartlands' as has been said, had the chance to vote for other parties - Tories/UKIP - at the last election, and on the whole chose not to. Corbyn took something of a punt at the last election producing a more left wing manifesto than seen in a long time. Although he didn't win, despite the vilification by the Press and the huge anti-Labour propaganda machine, he did much better than expected. I note that the Mirror piece says that only 15 Tories have signed a motion of no confidence in May, when 48 are needed. The 15 are quite enough to destroy her DUP dependent majority, and force another election.

Remainers would, I think, accept that it's a better alternative than the cliff edge and talk about making the UK a Singapore style tax haven. Moderate Leavers would have no problems. The head bangers on the Tory right would whinge, but they never come up with concrete proposals. Farage is all noise these days, but has increasingly less influence. So - yes, it's worth floating a strong alternative, to see how it goes down.

Thanks Red!

Remainers would, I think, accept that it's a better alternative than the cliff edge and talk about making the UK a Singapore style tax haven.

But Labour have never advocated this, so I don't see what it is in Starmer's position that would be sufficient to reassure Labour's remain support (other, perhaps, that it has been stated more concretely than previously).

I think Starmer has to put clear water between himself and Corbyn. Corbyn is always seen as a closet Lexiter. I would like to see what paid up Labour supporters say about this.

I'm bloody relived tbh

Labour are leaving the door open to Remain entirely - it's the first glimpse of light, I felt when I read it. It makes me feel really optimistic about Brexit not happening at all.

The situation in America is terrifying, truly horrendous. Where is it leading?

Placemat.

Thanks, Red.

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

There may have been many voters who wrote to them after the last election to tell them they got their vote DESPITE their Brexit stance, not because of it. I was one of them

I'm with CaptainBrickbeatd - it's what we said after the election, Hard Brexit effectively died on 9 June (just the Tory extremists who have been keeping it going on life support). I feel really optimistic - I'm sat in a departures lounge at the moment on my way to Ireland to scope out schools and houses and wondering if I should bother .

two fingers please give yourself a pat on the back for writing to your Labour MP - and anyone else who did too

....//

Thank you RTB!

Placemat ...thank you Red

Lala...ooooh I wish I was! :)
Thinking of West coast of Ireland for hols next year...
I've not gone ahead with the Irish passport applications for me and dc yet.
I feel that at last labour have listened to their voters
About bloody time

When I first saw it, I was annoyed, because actually it's not a new policy at all, and is still quite vague as it doesn't say what we would transition to (after 2-4 years in SM and CU). However, I agree that politically it's a significant development.

Policy wise it's a bit shit
But it's what this represents

I would like to see what paid up Labour supporters say about this

Well you won't find many of us on these threads. And, as a remainer, I'm probably the wrong kind of paid-up supporter. But I'll tell you what I think anyway.

The attraction of the Labour party for me at the moment is that they are the only people putting forward the argument that I believe in, namely that the country is in dire need of serious longterm investment (in healthcare, education, transport infrastructure, ...) and that after 35 years of that investment failing to trickle down from the magic money tree that is private wealth acquired through entrepreneurship, we need to reconsider whether old-fashioned approaches like raising taxes or borrowing might serve us better in the long run. This is not to say I fully endorse that manifesto in the last election (re-nationalisation of the Royal Mail seems particularly pointless; but let us not forget that it was St Vince who sold it off way below the market rate in the first place...)

I am remain, and the lack of a clear position of what kind of relationship we might enjoy with our neighbours post-Brexit is frustrating. This has not changed. Starmer's piece explicitly only talks about the transition period, which has now essentially been defined as status quo for up to around four years. Andrew Rawnsley, your man in the centre, agrees. Even Starmer himself says, right at the start of his piece, "Labour has repeatedly emphasised that in order to avoid a cliff edge for our economy there will need to be a time-limited transitional period between our exit from the EU and the new lasting relationship we build with our European partners."

From the headline I had hoped for something more, perhaps putting Norway/Swiss style arrangements back on the table. The fact that it doesn't do this suggests that closing the borders is still a priority for Labour, and necessarily with that exiting the customs union. But there is time for the sands to shift on that.

So what do I think? This is a restatement of existing Labour policy designed to get the centrists excited. And it seems to have worked.

Both labour and tories clearly put in their manifesto to leave the eu though. It was snp, lib dems and greens who put in their manifesto for a 2nd referendum or reverse the decision altogether. Don't make out people voted for labour to stay in the eu because its not true. Brexit is happening. It would take a massive turnaround and upheaval in British politics for this to be reversed now. I think it would be sensible however to have a transition deal whilst trade negotiations are taken place however.

This is a restatement of existing Labour policy designed to get the centrists excited. And it seems to have worked.

A pre-war German author, whose name I now forget, said, what matters is not what is true, but what people believe to be true. So the centrists clearly believe this is a u-turn, whether it was or not.

celeste - We are seeing upheavals in politics. Where are UKIP now, for example, compared with their vote share in 2015? None of us really knows what swings it for a voter to put a cross in the box they do. Many people will have voted Labour because they cannot trust the Tories on the NHS. Others, May's desire to have a vote on fox-hunting, which is a dead issue for many.

Many people voted Labour as the best chance of getting a Tory out. Get the Tories out, have a chance at stopping Brexit. If there had only been a few more seats swinging to Labour from Tory, the LibDems/SNP would have had much more power.