Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

I'm a bit perturbed by the fact that so many new, Brexit civil service posts are only now being created, such as this analyst for DCLG and this Brexist lead for the Scotland Office (which is being advertised a a two year, fixed term contract - seems optimistic to me)

Meanwhile, the Food Standards Agency is looking for someone to continue to have [[https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/index.cgi?SID=b3duZXI9NTA3MDAwMCZzZWFyY2hfc2xpY2VfY3VycmVudD0xJnBhZ2VjbGFzcz1Kb2JzJmNzb3VyY2U9Y3Nxc2VhcmNoJnVzZXJzZWFyY2hjb250ZXh0PTQzMzQ3ODIxJm93bmVydHlwZT1mYWlyJmpvYmxpc3Rfdmlld192YWM9MTU1Mzc1MiZwYWdlYWN0aW9uPXZpZXd2YWNieWpvYmxpc3QmcmVxc2lnPTE1MDM4MzMxMzAtY2JiOGM5YjBmZTQ2NzYyODY2YTM0ODJlNDYzZmE5ZDg2MGRiMmJjNw== "business as usual" conversations with Brussels... (Is that even possible at the moment?)

Darn. I was so anxious about trying to get that link to work, I don't think I explained myself well.

If they are only advertising jobs now, with closing dates in September, then they haven't a hope of recruiting anyone this side of Christmas. Partly because Civil Service recruitment procedures are notoriously slow, (I was one and have had first hand knowledge), and partly because candidates have to give notice to their current employer when they are offered the job.

Indeed, Peregrina.

Just going back to the end of the other thread, in case anyone thinks I am ignoring the posts about immigration (I didn't see them until just now):

I honestly don't know whether the bogus colleges, or the colleges offering education but at sub-standard levels, were a result of Tory or Labour policies, but they were certainly damaging to the education sector, which - as another pp said - is one of the standout successes of the UK. And whilst we absolutely must welcome students from places like India - one of the future global powerhouses - it was unacceptable (to me, and I would hope to others on this thread) that girls were being advertised for marriage with their dowry to include a UK student visa for her which automatically gave her husband to be a visa for the UK with unrestricted working rights.

The 100k net migration target was always a ridiculous idea, but it was David Cameron's ridiculous idea which then seems to have rooted itself deeply in TM's consciousness. One reason it was always ridiculous was that we haven't had decent data on either arrivals but particularly departures for some years (embark checks were dropped in 1998, IIRC). E-borders was supposed to deliver this capability many years ago, but was subject to lengthy delays and massive cost increases. As well as having committed to the e-Borders programme (and its successors), HO ministers were nervous about being seen to meet the 100k net migration target by changing the way the data was calculated.

I always enjoy it when people dismiss research from a respected independent organisation as being biased while stating their own random assumptions as fact.

On the job losses I have a couple of friends who are in careers very reliant on EU funding. One has already lost their job because they couldn't get funding anymore. The other is looking at losing most of their team unless they can find alternatives to EU grants.

This is going to become a common story across multiple sectors if we don't sort out this mess. I really do hope labour's statement today is a step towards stopping brexit completely.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/08/why-labours-new-brexit-stance-could-change-everything
Why Labour's new Brexit stance could change everything

Small change but might make a big difference. Good article on why it matters

more Labour voters in 2017 and a good number of them were former UKIP.

Which shows they were possibly actually more worried about the NHS, public services etc than the EU. Their ire is at the Tories.

I love this tweet so much!! What was the photographer saying to them when he took the picture?? It definitely wasn't 'smile' was it!

Alexandre Afonso @ alexandreafonso
In this new BBC series, a team of intrepid detectives hunts down fictitious foreign students overstaying their visas

Sandy Taylor @ greenbirmingham
So this new series is called "The Libertarians" directed by #Murdoch & #Dacre?

Damnit photo didn't post.

Oh it did. Stupid phone! Well it's a great photo of some miserable fuckers.

Labour are leaving the door open to Remain entirely

Oh I do hope so. I want my DDs' friends to have choices about where they live and work.

Also the original placemat king.

I like that new statesman article, it reflects my thoughts a lot. What the labour decision gives us is time and, in order to turn the great oil tanker of brexit around, time is exactly what we need right now.

Just read the Frankfurt story. "Brexit" expected to deliver 10,000 new financial services jobs, (although I suspect Deutsche would have been downsizing homewards Brexit or not). Then projecting almost 90,000 spin off jobs on top of this. Only translates to additional tax revenues of £176 m per annum on the optimistic end of the forecast or about 1/2 of a week's worth of the fabled bus.

That photo's a fucking farce. Who on earth OKd it? It looks like the BBC's major new 'gritty Bafta' crime drama for autumn.

Olenna that girls were being advertised for marriage with their dowry to include a UK student visa for her which automatically gave her husband to be a visa for the UK with unrestricted working rights. Please can you explain how this is possible let alone relevant to the debate about international students and the shameful way they have been treated. For the last ten years I have seen the cases of many UK citizens unable to bring their non EU spouses to the UK, let alone non EU students. Though there is provision for non EU students to bring their spouses to the UK in theory they must have sufficient savings to support themselves, £840 per month in London, and they have no right to work to support themselves and no recourse to public funds. There is also no guarantee that the application will be approved if they are regarded as at high risk of overstaying. Given current policy is to deny even an extended tourist visa to spouse of UK citizens from certain non EU countries because it is automatically assumed they are at risk of overstaying even if they are professionals with a career in their home country, I am sure you can appreciate that the numbers of spouses of Indian students managing to come to the UK at all are very small indeed and pretty much confined to postgrad students working on research in important areas of STEM, and they certainly cannot work here.

Please can you explain how this is possible let alone relevant to the debate about international students

but its not all about the forriners innit

Howabout Are you seriously trying to argue that the current brain drain of EU academics and skilled workers is due to economic factors and absolutely nothing to do with Brexit? Everything in that article is directly backed up by my own experience of EU academics in Finance, Science and wider academia who have either already left or plan to leave.

On the Frankfurt study not so long ago you were arguing that financial services companies would just put up a brass plaque in an EU country but since then there has been a steady stream of companies coming out with their plans to move jobs to Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin and I can assure you there are many with similar plans who just have not yet made them public. This is just the thin end of the wedge, and as the study shows it isn't just the financial services jobs, it is those working in the property, hospitality and retail sectors. The London property market is already stagnant.

I have always respected your arguments and still do on Scotland but for the rest of it you are increasingly looking to be in denial. As to the Labour revival being down to Kippers as opposed to the mobilisation of young voters, well they certainly don't think so......

You misunderstand me ron. I don't deny the "EU brain drain" in academia or finance and IT. However the numbers are probably closer to 100,000 rather than the hyperbolic 1 m implied in the article. I also think it is deeply concerning and does the pro EU argument no favours that EU grants to UK research etc are already being cut. I was aware of this already happening before the end of 2016.

The immigration figures last week were still positive, including the EU element, to the tune of 245,000. They are also falling from an historic high in the face of an adjustment from a sustained period where the UK economy was running ahead of the rEU to one where the rEU is now catching up.

The London housing market is completely out of step with the London let alone the UK underlying economy (in Kensington average earnings may be £120k but average house prices are £1.2m. In more "affordable" boroughs the earnings multiple is closer to 20. For the rest of the UK it is between 4 and 5). As such a correction seems inevitable and also healthy. On the banking sector the retail / investment split and consequent relocation of jobs to rUK outside of London will probably be more significant than Brexit. To an extent the way that banks are responding to Brexit is also influenced by this regulatory change imho.

However my opinion is just that. I tend not to bother to comment except to provide an alternative perspective.

whatwouldron - the current policy is (I believe) that postgrads are the only student visa holders who can bring their spouses with them, but until a few years back all Tier 4 visa holders could bring their spouses with them, and the spouses had the right to work. Hence adverts in Indian papers for young women looking for a husband (or, more accurately, the families of young women) where the fact that they held a Tier 4 visa was a significant part of their "offer" to a prospective spouse.

Why is this relevant? Because it illustrates that there has been historic abuse of the student visa route. I'm hopeful that the recent borders data shows that this has been eliminated by and large. Which is a good thing for everyone involved, including for the students who were duped out of large sums of money under the guise of getting a UK education.

For the rest of the UK it is between 4 and 5

Where's that stat from howabout?

It's more like 7 or 8 isn't it?

Out of interest, howabout what level of City trade being lost and intellectual research and experts would be unacceptable to you? At what point do you think we should start to worry? And when?

To my mind, these are big numbers - already - and they are clearly an indication of bigger losses to come. Ignoring them as " 'tis but a scratch" seems somewhat reckless.

I believe that new EU grants are not being awarded, because unlike our Government, they are not short term loans but span a period of years. Since we have told the EU we don't want to be members after early 2019, it's not unreasonable for them to hold off awarding the grants.

Bear the 7 or 8 is for England including London and the South East upwards distortion (London and South East account for about 1/3 of England by population and so this is significant). Scotland, Wales and N Ireland are around 5.

thecat that would depend on the underlying profitability of the trade and associated tax receipts and the ability of the local economy to adjust accordingly - wages which support house prices would be a good start for London - 15 years ago they did.

You see, howabout, I also think it all depends on those things. I think we're already at the point where I worry. So I suppose I do wonder what is the actual point of unacceptability for you.