Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

.......although I'm not sure about the transition would be "as short as possible but as long as necessary" part of the announcement. Can as long as necessary be open ended?

I've been thinking a lot about the links between the Trump debacle and the Leave campaign. I keep wondering if more political capital could/should be made of that.

A large part of Farage's credibility lay in his supposed nationalism (however queasy some of us might find that). I wonder if more needs to be made of the idea that the inciting of nativism in order to pursue interests quite other than those of the UK. I know the cynicism of that use of nativism is news to no-one on this thread but I do wonder if it is widespread knowledge amongst many of those who voted Leave. And I wonder what effect it would have?

I wonder if the lack of that line of attack is because it is hard to state very bluntly the implications of shady funding trails, and technology shares, and state it very simply, without falling foul of libel laws.

The situation in the US with Trump is pretty shocking.

Thank you Red. It will be interesting to see the next round of talks between 'thick as mince' DAvid Davis alongside this slight and welcome burst of clarity from Keir Starmer.

I was lucky enough to be able to tactically vote lib dem in the last election.

If it was a choice between labour and conservative though I'd have absolutely gone for labour despite their lack of clarity over brexit on the basis that even if they continued with the stupidly hard brexit we probably wouldn't be heading for Singapore on steroids or tax haven status to anywhere near the same degree.

I see Labour have rattled some cages.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3017117-When-can-we-expect-the-GE-now-Labour-have-done-a-dramatic-volte-face-on-freedom-of-movement

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/politics/3017125-Labour-s-u-turn-on-supporting-the-Brexit-Referendum-result?msgid=71471696

Lol

It's not a u turn though is it? It's still exiting the EU. Just not in a fast fashion. The entire Labour party are traitors now

It's not a u turn though is it? It's still exiting the EU. Just not in a fast fashion. The entire Labour party are traitors now

UKIP's sole purpose was to get a leave vote with very little else in substantial political manifesto. They are a spent political force now as their job is done.

Their job was presumably to see the vote through to actually leaving the EU. Following your arguments through Celeste, if people wanted a hard Brexit they would have voted for UKIP in droves. Instead, their vote collapsed completely. OK the Tory party became BlueKIP, so should have picked up the Leave votes. So where is the 80-100 seat majority that the polls were predicting that they would gain?

A couple of Leave myths dissolving

Myth 1 We can control immigration and just attract the brightest and the best with the skills we need. KPMG estimate 1 m EU nationals with postgrad qualifications are planning to or considering leaving, they are "the independent, in demand and educated", sectors like Science and IT will be particularly hit (actually Science already is with 13% of EU researchers having already left, many taking their research with them. ) www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/27/million-skilled-eu-workers-planning-to-leave-uk-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Myth 2 City jobs will not be moved, banks will just put up a brass plaque. 80000 jobs created in the Frankfurt economy as a result of the plans already announced to move banking jobs there. Add in to that plans have already been announced to move jobs to Dublin and Paris and that most banks have not yet made their plans public and it looks as though job losses in the London economy and other cities with back office operations like Newcastle and Edinburgh will run into the hundreds of thousands www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-deliver-eu-jobs-boom-with-80000-new-positions-predicted-in-frankfurt-a7912576.html

The fact is the referendum voted leave, and the last election the parties with manifestos to respect the referendum had the largest shares vote, i.e. labour and tories.

I respect that the non-legally binding result was based on a fallacy and lies that are rapidly being found out as unworkable.

The result represents deep dissatisfaction with both the EU and our own succession of governments. It would be nice if this was recognised and respected and we focussed on changing that rather than indulge fantasists and ideologues who will only make that underlying dissatisfaction worst not better.

But hey, the referendum result is the be all and end all and democracy is a single vote and not an ongoing discussion and its better to shoot yourself in the head out of nationalist pride rather than be pragmatic and honest about reality.

It's not just the job losses with regard to the City, though, is it? It's also the revenue from all those transactions. The job transferences are just the tip of the iceberg.

What I find almost incredible is the silence about this. The fact that the transfers have gone from being contingency plans to actuality has happened with very little mainstream coverage. It's big news (as is what is happening in the field of scientific research) and the implications are huge. It's going to affect the future of this country profoundly. Yet the in-depth, high-level analysis of this is not happening. Which allows people to think it's not, really, going to be that serious. It is.

Given the government papers that have been out this week, can I ask for clarification on what we are trying to achieve?

They have admitted we are not 'taking back control' (which we already had and will have less of after Brexit.). Immigration wasn't as bad as Theresa they pretended it was. We have looming labour shortages on the horizon. The pound is worth bugger all and the increase in exports that were hoped for as a result have failed to materialise. We can't do any more trade deals (plus the EU have just done some cracking new ones which we could have taken advantage. Not to mention Germany already does more trade with places the EU hasn't got deals with than we do within the EU, thus proving we don't need to leave to do more trade). Brexit means we have a PM who doesn't condemn Nazi sympathisers cos sucking up is more important than leading now we have less international influence. The NHS definitely isn't getting anymore money, and the £350 million promise was a lie that was admitted to on the 24th June 2016. Not to mention that the £350 million figure that we apparently pay to the EU was wrong and about twice the reality. And the government has said we will continue to make pay the EU post brexit - possibly more than we already pay.

Will someone PLEASE tell me what the point of Brexit actually is now reality is kicking in?

This is important. We need to have this conversation...

Katrina was a Cat 5. Sandy was a Cat 3. Just saying

Will someone PLEASE tell me what the point of Brexit actually is now reality is kicking in?

Giving Leavers the right to shout 'yay, we won'

That's it.

Thats where every conversation ends up, proven by celeste upthread.

All leavers are doing/ have ever done is to try and silence the realists who have pointed out the many, many issues.

This whole Labour debate is more of the same.

If it's such a great idea why can't it be proven by pointing out the advantages rather than always resorting to shutting down the debate?

celeste I know Leavers let out a giant yawn whenever anyone brings this up but the fact is that the Referendum was advisory unlike General or local elections which are legally binding. DC may have said that he would stand by the result but that doesn't change the fact that it was advisory and he therefore had every right to ignore it.
For a Referendum to be legally binding, there had to be a Referendum Act which specifies a minimum majority- for a major constitutional change, this is usually two thirds.
Would people honestly be banging on about 'the will of the people' if Leave had won by one vote?
I have always seen it as a sign of strength rather than weakness to be able to admit that you were wrong.
I think that the way out of this mess is to give Brexiters a chance to say that they have changed their minds rather than continuing to call them all thick and racist and backing them into a corner.They were lied to and they fell for it. That's not their fault.
My DM who is the most ardent Tory I've ever met has more or less admitted that she regrets voting for Brexit although can't quite admit to going completely public with it.
I think that there are similarities with Trump in that there is a core of voters who will stick with him whatever but there are a considerable number who are quietly beginning to think, 'What the fuck have I done?'
Those are the people that we need to be reaching out to in a non judgemental way if we are to have any chance of rescuing ourselves from this mess.
A PP posted a very good analogy about a couple who put an offer in on their dream house and then get a survey back saying that it's riddled with damp and dry rot. They are so in love with the house that they decide to soldier on but ask for a more detailed survey which says that the roof needs replacing and the whole house needs rewiring. They begin to hesitate but commission an even more detailed survey which says that the house is subsiding and will require extortionately expensive underpinning which only has a 30% chance of success. Should they just plough on regardless or do the 'sensible' thing and withdraw their offer?

Katrina was not Cat 5 when it made landfall in New Orleans. This is the scary thing. It could have been worse.

I'm a bit confused by this constant reference to a Singapore option? That would be the Singapore that is part of ASEAN, a community of neighbouring countries united by a common will and collective desire to live in peace security and prosperity, sustained economic growth, shared prosperity, and social progress and to promote our vital interests, ideals and aspirations. The Singapore that as a member of ASEAN seeks to preserve its identity and interests in the face of its massive economic reliance on that other neighbouring economy a China. Last time I flew over the shipping lanes were filled with 10000 oil tankers that were being used as storage tanks because of some blip in China /Singapore trade relations, it was equivalent to the oil shipped to China through Singapore in one day.....

Singapore is a low reg low tax economy but only survives because of its close trading relationship with its neighbours, a success that is precarious given their increasing power and prosperity.

Mind you at the moment the internecine conflicts within the ruling elite put the Tories to shame..... at least the Brexiteers don't take to Facebook to air their feuds. www.ft.com/content/4e874fae-525f-11e7-bfb8-997009366969

Yesterday I had a conversation with a bar man.

We were talking about a particular brewery who were in the process of changing their bottling system around the time of Brexit. Their business plan was to switch to a new automated German built machine and from the 500ml bottles they were using and switch to more standard 330ml bottles which the European market liked.

The bar man was complaining about how they had put up their prices 20%. (Remember they had just bought a £1million machine from Germany as the pound tanked 20%). He then went on about how many people were upset by them abandoning 500ml bottles and how he no longer ordered from them because of that (rather than because of the price increase). He was whinging about it being Brexit's fault that they switched the bottles.

He said this whilst stood in front of a wall of 330ml bottles from brewers who had only ever used 330ml bottles.

Marking place.

Labour are leaving the door open to Remain entirely

I think this might be true.

Interesting times.

It will be very interesting to see what the Conference season delivers from the main parties.

(Long time lurker and admirer of Red)

"Labour are leaving the door open to Remain entirely"

THIS^

That's what I took from the new positioning too. But Christ almighty they need to drop McConnell and his '70s economics and soundbites. They need a Blairite foil to Corbyn's Old Labour (like Prescott to Blair but in reverse). I'd like to drop Corbyn too but that risks the house of cards carefully crafted by Momentum. Kier Starmer is already there in the wings - unfortunately raise your hand as a progressive and Corbyn will wield the knife - again. It's a conundrum that vexes me.

What we do need is more MSM probing the financial cost of the City exodus. Those tax receipts from transactions, income tax and property purchases in Greater London are what prop up the whole economy. Assuming a Brexit Britain of happy fishermen aint going to plug that hole. Would be nice if the FT picked that one up - and filtered down to more readable media.

I have to admit that I regard McDonnell (and all he represents) to be a major impediment to a mass outbreak of reason.

Red your analysis of the current state of play with regard to Brexit is admirably clear and succinct.

What a disaster. What a mess.

Since you ask for a Lexit opinion on Keir's latest smoke and mirrors. If Labour backtrack down this route which I think does look very much like never ending transition leading to calling off the whole Brexit thing then they won't get my vote.

On the 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain worth remembering that there were far more Labour voters in 2017 and a good number of them were former UKIP.

Placemat king-ing here. Thanks again Red

I'm in two minds about the Labour proposition. There is something to be said for just getting on with things - dragging out transition won't do anything to give us stability and reassure the markets.

I think what I would like to see is a speedy conclusion to the current negotiations, along with a time frame for each change. So we might leave the customs union at a different time from when we stop having seats in the European Parliament, for example.

ron that Guardian article is a masterpiece in selective, suggestive editing. It states near the end almost half of the UK's total EU workforce of about 2 million have no plans to leave the UK despite Brexit.

While the survey quotes do seem to imply that higher earners and more highly qualified are slightly more likely to be considering their future that does not translate to all potential leavers being in that category which the 1 million headline figure you quote suggests.

If anything, evidence to date suggests economics rather than sentiment are driving change. Relative improvement in Eurozone employment transferring immigration from Poland back to Germany etc and more scope for Southern Europeans to explore opportunities at home. The exchange rate is also a factor, but more so at the lower wage end where short term fluctuations have more impact.

OK. I'm going to try and post a tweet. twitter.com/?lang=en-gb This has just come up in my timeline.

I can't see who has produced this, using what data. But it's interesting, particularly, in the light of Celeste's earlier posts. Clearly, research into what people thought they were voting for when voting 'Leave' does, actually, matter, if only because it demonstrates that the Referendum result is not a simple mandate for any sort of Brexit.