The Brexit Arms. All welcome.

[surferjet]

So.....how are we all?

All political and economic systems are flawed, at least communism gave us great thinkers like Marx. Brexit? I think i read a Daily Express editorial once.

Rant? Lol.

"none of this is even talked about."

Theres a reason for that Misti. Everything you listed as a 'must happen', already exists. The concept of 'union goods' being ticked as 'non-union goods' on the CHIEF system seems beyond remainers understanding, as does the fact that millions of tons of non-union goods heading to non-union destinations pass through the eu territory every day. Millions.

597 days to go. Its happening alright, as we keep reminding you, no eu state can serve notice with a caveat of, "please sit on this notice just in case the next government decides to change its mind".

Conclusion: brexit ain't happening

You heard it here folks. Some random on the internet has spoken.

If only the only difference between importing EU goods and non-EU goods was as simple as ticking a box on an on-line form then you might have a point.

It isn't, and to suggest otherwise is laughable.

"It isn't, and to suggest otherwise is laughable."

Au contraire. Its working perfectly fine. Im looking at it as we speak. The fact remainers on the whole, dont understand it, or how the customs systems work, really isnt my problem.

Some of us understand rather well how trade works. My employer, for example, sends large volumes of exports to the EU through the channel ports on lorries booked on roro ferries. Most of these shipments are time sensitive (deliveries into JIT supply chains).

If roro shipments to the EU are to be subject to controls for customs, regulatory, phytosanitary purposes etc etc, this will require investment in both physical and IT facilities.This sort of project takes years to implement, and needs to be financed. Not in the budget? Not happening.

Some random on the internet has spoken.

I'm as likely to be right as an other random posting on the internet ;)

We'll see in March 2019. Not long to wait now!

Sorry Misti it sounds like you might have some expertise with regards to the subject. And you are not a true BeLeaver. This means you must be wrong.

Not really elements, I'm just an economist not a trade specialist.

As surfer says, I'm just a random on the internet using facts and data to arrive at a conclusion. We will know in just over a year anyway, since negotiations will need to conclude in October 2018. Doesn't give government, businesses or public services long to make plans, especially as we are no closer to understanding the government's position than we were a year ago.

Funnily enough, quite a few experts (including our own parliament) foresee customs issues in terms of increased administrative costs and delays.

www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-external-affairs-subcommittee/news-parliament-2015/brexit-trade-in-goods/

We'll see in March 2019. Not long to wait now!

A more pertinent and pressing issue is are we actually going to make it to March 2019?!! Brexit and this whole discussion could be rather academic.

On that cheery note make mine a large one

Thought I'd have a peek on the EU Ref boards after a long hiatus & saw there was a new Brexit Arms thread...

Rushed in, hoping to see some old leaver chums - cock-a-hoop to see Surfer, Time4, Corcory et al....then felt my soul being sucked out once more by the omnipresent Remain dementors.

Nothing changes!

(Have namechanged, but used to be a regular on these threads).

We are asking questions and proving we are a nation throbbing with energy and discussion. You need to take a hard look at yourself if you feel so drained by dialogue.
Brexit and this whole discussion could be rather academic
Sorry it is draining for you but this is what academia is about. thats why we must treasure our academics. If someone can Take us out of this mess, Brexit or not, it is our academia and our youth now in an ongoing and robust debate.

Just working out where we are...

Sorry I came back so late to reply your posts Caroline. DC unwell and only got better in the last two days.

1. Don't know what you want to show with the youth unemployment chart. What are you trying to prove there?
2. The second link you posted is of a Guardian article about a think tank predicting interest rate rise. I have no background in economics and finance. Can you explain how an increase in interest rate will boost economy and what will we export? I am sure the banks will survive. They are too big to fail. But common people ARE surviving in India and Africa anyway. Isn't that the aspiration of that nutjob (actually he is very clever for his own interests) called Jacob Rees Mogg?

The post right after your links has a twitter link with a statement from Mark Carney. What do you say about that?

A few comments down, you say you want controlled immigration of talent here. I have to think very hard to remember even one talented student/scientist who I guided to come to UK. I stopped saying it about five years ago and started sending them towards EU because they couldn't even afford the rent here, let alone the cost of visa processing, the fact that they wouldn't be able to settle here with families for a DECADE in most cases.

Anyway, we digress.

Then you go on to post about EU army. And wrote this Unlike NATO, which has very clear guidelines as to what constitutes acts of aggression, and therefore NATO involvement (and which almost all EU states are a member), the 'EU army' is focussed on military expansion and integration. How it will be used is anyones guess, no guidelines have even been tabled.
You have given no reference for this and I am quite sure that NATO is still in Afghanistan in a big way which is a war of aggression by the West. However, our army has been for hire for USA when Iraq and Afghanistan happened post 9/11. Could our involvement in those fucking illegal wars (that have finally led to this cross ocean "immigration" of refugees from those destroyed regions) have been prevented by an EU vote had we BEEN in a joint army then?
It is an extremely important question that needs to be discussed. Specially as the first woman in the whole wide world ready to hold Trump's sleazy hands is our very own May's. (Please.it is a joke.dont try to get back at me by showing pics of Merkel shaking hands with him or is daughter).

I am posting this much and will continue on your other posts later. Mainly on page 3 as it appears on my phone.
I will also comment on later posts (Schultz quote from time etc)...
Kindly ignore the grammar errors in there. Trying to type quickly from my bunker in the garden where my family are hiding in case Trump presses the button.it is a dig at the "anti-Americanism" coined by caroline

My post at 00:12 was aimed at faith..

Didn't you just know Brexiteers would start getting headaches and feeling dizzy when Brexit got complicated. Flag waving was sooo easy.

Valentine, your post is a tad bitty, so its not clear when you talk about costs of rent or visas etc whether youre simply arguing a migration pov and the impact of overcrowding on our housing stock.
The youth unemployment stats across the EU speak for themselves and accounts for why the youth of europe (and further afield) have flocked to the UK.

But you ask;

"Could our involvement in those fucking illegal wars (that have finally led to this cross ocean "immigration" of refugees from those destroyed regions) have been prevented by an EU vote had we BEEN in a joint army then? It is an extremely important question that needs to be discussed."

The answer is absolutely not.

Re Afganistan, The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 1386 in 2001, which followed on from the Bonn Agreement.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UnitedNationssSecurityCouncillResolution13866_
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonnn_Agreement_(Afghanistan)

NATO then acted on those resolutions. Heres a list of Nations (I may have missed a few) who supported action in Afghanistan.

Germany, France, UK, Spain, Albania, Armenia, US, Canada, Australia, Austria, Azebaijahn, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovinia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Rep, Denmark, El Salvadore, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mongolia, Mintenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey.

When you then turn to Iraq, I absolutely agree it was an illegal war and Bliar should be in prison as we speak. Whilst domestically weve pressed for the Chilcot Report into Bliars role in the Iraq war, we have shamefully not acted on it. Would some overarching EU Defence organisation avoided this? Absolutely not. Mainly for the same reasons the UN didnt, but also because one of the aims of the EU is to spread the 'light' of western democracy.

All of that apart, the bottom line here regards an EU army, is costs, not some idealogical progressive 'keep the peace' movement.

From the 1960s to 2009 France refused to be a military member of NATO though retained their seat politically. The one reason for this was costs. The very same reasons that only a handful of EU states meet the 2% of GDP required to be spent on defence under the treaties. Most other EU states spend between 1 and 1.5% of GDP.

This may seem 'academic', but to put that in context, the US spend approx 3.3%, Russia spends 5.4%, Saudi Arabia spends 9.8%, Oman a staggering 13.7% of GDP. (No figures available for North Korea).

It is staggeringly foolish to set up some alternative to NATO, which has maintained peace in europe for 60 years, when 90% of the proposed member states (EU) have no stomach for increasing defence spending, and no political concensus.

Yet here we are, and not one eu citizen has been consulted......

Hi Faith! At least theyre predictable.

Clock keeps on ticking.

Their predictability is like a security blanket of sorts Caroline
In a stormy sea of change it's the only constant!!

Clock can't tick fast enough for me

"Can you explain how an increase in interest rate will boost economy and what will we export? I am sure the banks will survive. They are too big to fail. "

The good news is we have an economist on the thread, Misti, could you give Valentine a brief economic overview?

And Misti, whats your opinion on Greece possibly going from deflation to hyperinflation? The EUs QE? And the risk of stagflation in almost all EU states?

(Banks do fail by the way Valentine, the EU are still bailing out the Italian banks who hold roughly 1/3rd of the EUs risky loans to the tune of 360 billion euros.)

Luckily for us, we voted out of this financial farce hence why The City is holding its own.

So you are trying to say that a lot of nations supported Afghanistan and not many did it for Iraq so Iraq was illegal and Afghanistan wasn't?
There is no wonder the kind of hate that brews in South Asia for the western interventions is quite justified. We talk a lot about Iraq because a lot of money was obviously involved. Can you please tell me what the aggression on Afghanistan achieved? Hundreds of thousands of dead/maimed civilians and soldiers, a big upsurge in huge terror organisations funded by some of the countries you listed above (read on Haqqani network for example) and destabilised region with presence of thousands of western soldiers still. But obvious money isn't involved so we don't talk about it. It is highly convenient that we have had jihad planted there a few decades ago. Makes the case later on to go and attack on and on.
Anyway, I digress.
For the generation that grew up in the shadow of these wars, the EU army is just hoo haa. See, if you can bring up the argument that Afghanistan war was fine because so many countries supported it, you must in your heart agree with EU army too as it is supported by so many countries anyway?

As for the economists, I didn't want to have to write it but I have posted and deleted some info here which was quite outing. Brexit happens or not, large number of businesses are leaving because they want certainty and we have shown them how divided we are. That is irreparable damage to the economy. My own family is choking full of economists and none of them think it is less than an abhorrent idea to destabilise UK economy when we hardly manufacture anything and nearly totally depend on financial services. Specially as Asia is rising as the manufacturing hub and you can't beat them without being a large bloc.
We have immensely great science parks and universities in this country but they depend a lot on freedom of movement and that will be gone. (I have posted example of my lab benign nearly totally non British so many times here).z the other factor, academics feeling disgruntled with the direction of hatred this country is going, is such a big issue that so many Leavers are blatantly ignoring. If I am angry on the direction of your society and I have an international passport (the skillset of most scientists), he in the name of heavens will I stay in UK then who don't want others to come here. That's the message Leave campaign sent (my "immigration" highlight in one of my posts was a reference to the picture of Nigel Farage in front of a picture of refugees flocking to Europe, running away fr a war that we inflicted on them by the way) and still keeps sending. How many of the Leave poster boys have changed? You still have BoJo (the one who changed his mind one day before Ref apparently) and Gove (the one who is on Murdoch's payroll), Davis (the one who didn't know the difference of trading with EU and the rest of the world in or outside EU and is yet the minister for it), Loathsome (the one who thinks we can sell air to china, climate change is dubious and supports fox hunting and god knows what else), and of course Ian Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees Mogg (do I even need to say something?).
I think we need to decide the future of this country by leaving the decision in the hands of people who will face the consequences. It is only fair and just, no matter what your opinions are on where it is going. We can work on it all from inside.

I a man going to wait to see what Misti will say about your points.

Wall to wall discussion of chlorinated chicken but not so much about Dutch contaminated eggs which have actually been imported and sold in the UK.

Starting to think the BBC editorial team may all be on holiday and the Eurosceptics are at the helm. Stories in the last 24 hours include Juncker and co's expenses, Dutch fishing fleet using "science trial" loophole to allow the whole fleet to use supposedly EU outlawed fishing methods, increasing prevalence of human trafficking in the UK facilitated by FoM.

Just popped in for a quick drink with Caroline and Faith