From the NIESR report quoted in Caroline's Graunuad link:
The economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017 according to official statistics. The outturn was in line with the Institute’s nowcast and slightly faster than the 0.2 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Our forecasts for GDP growth for this year and next remain unrevised at 1.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively. The economy has slowed each year since 2014 and according to our forecast, 2017 will mark the trough for GDP growth. Thereafter, we envisage a modest recovery that takes economic growth to a level that is close to potential.
Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is set to increase further, from 2.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2017 to 3 per cent in the final quarter, before easing back to the target rate of 2 per cent in the final quarter of 2019.
Developments in the labour market remain puzzling. The employment rate has risen to a record high of 74.9 per cent in the three months to May 2017, the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5 per cent, the lowest since 1975, yet wage growth remains muted. Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation dropped by 0.7 per cent in the three months to May compared to the same period last year.
Our forecasts are conditioned on a return to meaningful productivity growth from 2018 onwards. Failure of such growth to materialise presents a downside risk to our forecast.