Westminstenders: The 3 Million get their first offer.

[RedToothBrush]

The UK have finally put forward their proposals for EU citizens living in the UK. These 'bargaining chips' have been offered a 'generous deal' which is nothing of the sort.

For an in depth look at what it means this is a good summary:
Analysis: what is the UK proposing for EU citizens in the UK and EU citizens in the EU?
This is written by a leading immigration law blogger.

What they suggest, is this is probably what will happen in the event of a no deal situation and that hopefully there can be a better final deal. That does seem to be backed by the comments about EU citizens not needing to do anything now (including apply to remain under existing rules under the 85page document) although they are telling the civil service to prepare for a no deal situation. But who knows? Who can trust them?

What we should all be paying close attention to is not just the detail of this, but the language around it.

Numerous politicians have said that they will wait and see what the EU proposal is, even though it has been out for a couple of weeks. This is an effort to discredit and smear the EU.

This comes after Davis had suggested that the UK had achieved a 'victory' by getting the EU to 'agree' to put citizens rights at the time of priorities to be dealt with, even though it was also the top priority for the EU who refuse to talk about anything else until the matter is settled. Everything is being couched as a victory, even if its merely agreeing with the EU and constitutes a compromise by the UK and a row back from previous comments.

Also flying about a lot is confusion over the ECJ and the EHCR. Some of it is ignorant. Some of it is an effort to discredit and smear the ECJ to force a harder Brexit.

The EU position can be found here: EU proposals for post Brexit EU/UK citizens
It is essentially to preserve ALL current rights.

The UK position is to reduce EU citizens rights. This would also enable them to reduce UK citizens rights in the longer term, so what happens here, isn't just about EU nationals rights its also about UK nationals living in the UK.

Of course the proposals also have more significance for UK citizens living in the EU. The UK government have frequently suggested their use of bargaining chips was to help UK citizens living abroad. What has been put on the table could not be further from the truth. The government is quite happy to screw over UK citizens living in the EU. Probably because they are traitors.

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block to a deal is who oversees it all. The UK want it all done purely by UK courts. This is NOT going to happen (unless we have a no deal). There is no way the EU will compromise on this, due to our dreadful track record in deportations with unlawful behaviour and lack of regard for family life. (Thanks Theresa). Systems on the table as an alternative to the ECJ are a new court system - perhaps even merely one with the same judges but with a different name to appease a ignorant British public - or arbitration which is unlikely as it tends to be for states and not businesses or individuals.

It will be interesting to see how this progresses as it should give a good idea of how much we will compromise.

Its also been pointed out that the paper on EU citizens have been the first public document on Brexit which has had any substance. If I was a cynic I might say that Davis is sitting on his arse waiting for the EU to publish their proposals before and merely copying the EU's homework and making changes to it. If that happens to really be the case, then its perhaps a good thing, as our lot really are bloody useless and have no idea what they are talking about.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/industrial-relations/news/87173/michael-gove-suggests-public-sector-pay-cap-should-end
Michael Gove suggests public sector pay cap should end

Refers to an article in the Sunday Times in which he is quoted as saying

"You've got to listen to the public sector pay review bodies," the former education secretary told the Sunday Times.

"When they made recommendations on school teachers' pay, I think I always accepted them.

"My colleagues who deal with these pay review bodies would want to respect the integrity of that process."

Listening seems to be all the rage now doesn't it. To experts no less!

And whilst we are at it, let's take a swipe at Hammond

Chancellor Philip Hammond is under pressure from colleagues to loosen the cap, with Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt apparently calling for a pay rise for NHS nurses, a move backed by Education Secretary Justine Greening and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

At a Cabinet meeting last week Mr Hammond insisted any changes would have to wait until the Budget this autumn, although an unnamed minister told the Sunday Times it was imperative the Government should act sooner.

“If a public sector pay review body says bust the cap, which I’m sure they will, are we going to say no?" they said.

Taking a wild guess here but that unnamed minister wouldn't be Boris now would it?

sos The electorate can vote for repealing the Laws of Gravity
Doesn't mean the politicians are able to carry it out.

All politicians are desperately trying to avoid telling the public that the kind of Brexit, which all parties have been promising, is impossible without severe economic consequences and much pain.

If Cameron had chosen an EEA / EFTA referendum - the only form of Brexit that wouldn't hammer the economy - or if politicians immediately after the vote had had courage to choose this oath,
then it would be 99.9% certain that Brexit would happen and without too much pain.
There could then have been a 2nd stage for "hard" Brexit after 10 years or so, if people voted for it.

So now we are likely to face a choice of a disastrous Brexit with the economy going over the cliff edge, or a humiliating climbdown to Remain.
Even so, the Brexit option looks much more likely, because the politicians think they might just survive economic disaster and the IMF, but not a climbdown.

Dealers.

From the Mirror report about fishing:
That means after Brexit no European vessel will be able to net British fish without permission.

So those Dutch boats that we sold our fishing licences to will be OK then. Some of us will be old enough to remember the Cod Wars with Iceland. It did not go well for the UK.

Again, I think this is posturing for the domestic market. I would hope it would be quietly dropped, but the crew in Government seem particularly incompetent, so I doubt it.

Someone agrees with me a bit anyway.

I said over a year ago there will be another referendum in 2 years or under. The labour are not strong enough to take on brexit I don't think anyway. They want the Tories to hold this baby. Tories will find a way, indeed parliament will find a way to overturn that referendum, they really have to to save the country if what all you are saying is true. Unless, of course, the Tories know something we don't.

Huge RMP enquiry into alleged SAS war crimes in Afghanistan to be unexpectedly ended this summer
(Times paywall)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/rogue-sas-unit-accused-of-executing-civilians-in-afghanistan-f2bqlc897

Members of Britain’s Special Air Service (SAS) are alleged to have covered up evidence that they killed unarmed Afghan civilians in cold blood and falsified mission reports in a potential war crimes scandal that the government has tried to keep secret.

A senior Whitehall source revealed that the MoD and the army’s most senior generals had regarded the evidence of “mass executions” emerging from Operation Northmoor as “credible and extremely serious”.

The source said it was “seen as a potential disaster for the government” so there were attempts “to keep it under control by reducing the scale of the investigation”.

Operation Northmoor, set up in 2014, was investigating dozens of alleged unlawful killings between 2010 and 2013 by special forces and had become one of the largest military police investigations, with more than 100 RMP officers involved.

The inquiry had been expected to take several more years with provision made for the work to continue until late 2021.
But the Operation Northmoor team was instructed by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to conclude the vast majority of cases by this summer

Sorry to be so late catching up, what does it mean that May plans to storm out of EU negotiations AND it is for domestic audiences. Does it mean she accidentally leaves a few minions behind who secretly carry out the negotiations? Or does it mean the end of the story, no deal?

DUP deal helping with that one, BCF ^
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/britains-secret-terror-deals-truly-disturbing-bbc-panorama-allegations-of-collusion-must-be-fully-investigated-says-amnesty-international-31261593.html

Does anyone think it would be worth writing to Theresa may

Nope.

peregrina I also remember the Cod War
The UK sent warships, which did surprisingly badly, against Icelandic fishing boats and a couple of little gunboats.

Iceland - total population about 300,000 and no navy - won that war.
The UK had to make a humiliating climbdown

^If Cameron had chosen an EEA / EFTA referendum ...
then it would be 99.9% certain that Brexit would happen and without too much pain.^

If that had been the Referendum Brexit option then I think Remain would have won because half in with no say is the worst of all options. It would have been a pyrrhic victory which would have reinvigorated UKIP rather than killing it off.

On the Telegraph story the leak looks like a very overt pantomime wink at anyone who seriously thinks the UK / EU would settle on no deal - PH's statement that No Deal would be very very bad indeed needing a bit more oomph.

ElenaGreco the 'Domestic Consumption' was a quote from this DT article.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/01/theresa-may-could-storm-brexit-talks-divorce-bill/
Like 'red' said, it's not new, but looks like positioning for latest tory horrorshow.

Still, no one died or even got seriously hurt.
Wish all wars were like that

what does it mean that May plans to storm out of EU negotiations AND it is for domestic audiences.

I think this is like the David Davis posturing - there was going to be the 'row of the summer' if we weren't allowed to discuss Trade Deals in parallel. This 'row' lasted all of the first morning of talks. Making some of us think that it was never going to happen in the first place, but was just designed to appease us plebs.

howabout Do you think the voters in EFTA countries are idiots then ?
There are grumbles from hard believers on both sides, but most seem to think they have the best compromise:
freedom to do their own thing in many areas, while enjoying EU trade benefits.

Tim Walker @ ThatTimWalker
A lot of expectation management going on in the Sundays about Brexit. What you were sold is sadly not what you're going to get.

The Sundays are generally more pro-Remain for some bizarre reason. (Sunday readership somehow different because some people only read the newspaper on Sunday??)

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-government-in-danger-of-losing-its-financial-wits-558tzrzh5?shareToken=0d7ef6f6bb2341d08064d8c710bfd64a
A government in danger of losing its financial wits

Leading article from the Times which isn't currently paywalled

It a warning. About not making fiscally sound decisions and how we are already up shit creek financially. The final two paragraphs are strong with the final one devastating:

The under forties are suffering from a shortage of cheap houses. The remedy is to get a million more built through reforming the planning system. The young do not like university tuition fees, and the system is far from perfect. But abolish them and poorer taxpayers pay for the privileges and income that a university education brings. And bankrupt the country and you turn the young into beggars, as in Greece.

One thing is clear: a Conservative Party that stands for nothing, including fiscal discipline, will founder. People will not vote for the Tories because they feel warm and fuzzy about them.

It is rather unhappy about magic money trees it seems. Remember the Times somewhat reluctantly supported the Conservatives with big cavets. The Financial Times did the same. As did the Spectator. I forget which of the three it was, that virtually said they supported the Conservatives rather than May. (Possibly all of them) The Evening Standard certainly said the same.

Going further than that. The comments about student fees are exactly what Nick Clegg's position was. And was blasted for during the election. But it goes beyond that. The Times called the LD manifesto 'an exercise in thinking' see article here:
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/food-for-thought-m57vxcslg
The LDs have been trying to position themselves as the party of business for a while now and The Times took their manifesto seriously even if they were dismissive to the party's election chances.

I think that editorial should be taken as a kick up the backside to the Cons and a great big massive hint as to what the Times (and more to the point it's readers) think the government should be doing economically and a desire to bring the party back to the centre ground overall.

Don't misread my point on this. I don't see the LDs being able to capitalise on this even with Vince Cable as leader, but certainly I think their manifesto might turn out to be more influential than you might think and might offer the Conservatives some ideas to get out of the position of lunacy they have backed themselves into. Especially seeing as they appear to have absolutely no ideas of their own.

EEA / EFTA is also a halfway house, which would provide the 10-15 years necessary to organize an exit from all the European institutions if the voters chose.

woman I thought of the DUP deal and wondered if they intended the terms on the military to apply outside NI too.
DD being in the cabinet amy also have helped

red Sunday broadsheets have always contained much longer articles than dailies, hence more opportunity for thoughtful analysis by both journalists and readers
Not surprising if this influences both editorial policy and readership.

Giving up our power to influence the EU and leave the European parliament always seems nuts to me.

Ironically I'd stand to be an MEP but not an MP because the media coverage is so different and because the attraction the position attracts is so different.

I can't get away from the point that the European parliament didn't work for the UK primarily because we elected lazy half wits who make the current government look competent to it. Farage is a formidable character in big generalised issues because of his ability with the media and that's where it ends. He is a celebrity not a politician. He is utterly unsuited to the detail. He calls this beaucracy because he's not capable of doing detail. It bores him more than anything.

Great politicians do detail and understand issues from all sides.

(Telegraph paywall) Unless we follow Norway, Brexit Britain is in danger of being grounded

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/02/unless-follow-norway-brexit-britain-danger-grounded/

As the great Brexit shambles continues,
one of the most telling hints as to whether our politicians have the faintest clue of what they are talking about is when they imagine that we can somehow leave the EU but remain in its “Customs Union”.

The likes of Philip Hammond and Chuka Umunna, the leader of last week’s Labour rebels,
clearly haven’t even got to square one in their failure to grasp that a country can only be in the “Customs Union” if it is a full member of the EU (under treaty rules laid down in 1957).

What they should be focusing on instead is the EU’s sophisticated system of “Customs Co-operation”, set up in 1994,
which is what allows 14,000 lorries a day to move effortlessly between Dover and Calais, as also across the Northern Irish border, and much else besides.

They should also be heeding the growing alarm over what could happen if we are excluded from the equally complex EU system that governs every aspect of aviation and air traffic.

Last week, Peter Fankhauser, the chief executive of Thomas Cook, colourfully predicted that unless our politicians wake up to these potential dangers, we risk being taken back to the “medieval age”, echoing the rather
plainer warnings of Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair,
that in Britain we could even find ourselves no longer entitled to fly our aircraft anywhere outside UK airspace.

It is all this and more we could have held on to if we had joined Norway in the European Free Trade Area and remained in the wider European Economic Area (and therefore the single market).

But it is this from which, by deciding instead to become what the EU classifies as a “third country”, requiring the re-erection of the full panoply of border controls, we are choosing to exclude ourselves.

And this way only chaos lies;
as David Davis and his fellow “ultra-Brexiteers” will soon very uncomfortably come to learn

The Norway option used to be very popular among leading Brexiters
Still is the favoured Brexit for the Norths, Booker and the other Leavers who actually understand the complexity of leaving the EU

This from an immigration specialist:

Simon Cox @ SimonFRCox
Irish cits in UK told by IRE & UK Govs won't lose rights on Brexit.

Wrong: not immune from deportation & will lose family rights. 1/
Until Brexit, Irish cits in U.K. have EU law rts: limits deportation to serious crime cases. Rt to be joined by spouse, parents etc. 2/
If Brexit ends EU law rts of Irish cits UK, only enforceable rights will be UK law ones. These are weak & easy for UK Govt to change 3/
"But the Common Travel Area gives Irish citizens rights!"

It doesn't stop deportation or give rights of family union. It's just "travel" 4/
"But Ireland Act 1949 says Ireland's not a foreign country. Govs said that won't change!"

It doesn't stop deportation or protect family 5/
UK Home Office own guidance doesn't accept 1949 Act affects power to deport Irish citizens:
t.co/1fHdMYgvRG
Constraint on deportation of Irish cits is EU law, not 1949 Act. So, if EU law goes, they can be deported under same rules as non-EU now 7/
Doesn't mean UK Gov must deport more Irish cits. But when Ministers get new powers, they like to use them. Especially vs press targets 8/
English press demonized Irish before. Implausible Mail / Express wd call for deportation of unemployed Irish? Or Travellers & Roma ppl 9/
Losing EU law wd also massively reduce Irish family reunion rights. EU law see family as important : UK immigration rules don't. 10/
Under EU Directive 2004/38, Irish cits have rts to be joined by spouse & dependant parents, grandparents & children under 21. 11/
UK law leaves family reunion up to rules made by Home Sec: she can change them as she likes. Parliament can overrule but rarely does 12/
Home Sec's current UK family union rules are narrow & mean. Elderly parents can't usually come: must prove no-one else will support them 13/
Irish will have only weak British rights to be joined by spouse: must prove have > £18,000 pa income & vulnerable to arbitrary officials 14/
For decades, UK immgr officials have used perverse decisions & obstruction to keep couples apart. They would use Brexit vs all EU cits 15/
So Irish citizens: please ask @EndaKennyTD & @DavidDavisMP - if Ireland Act 1949 doesn't stop deportation of Irish - what does it do? 16/16

Quite a useful article about the customs union from last autumn. Makes me realise I hadn't really understood the situation though I still suspect I have a better grip than David Davis

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/turkey-is-no-model-for-britains-post-brexit-trade-policy/