Westminstenders: The 3 Million get their first offer.

[RedToothBrush]

The UK have finally put forward their proposals for EU citizens living in the UK. These 'bargaining chips' have been offered a 'generous deal' which is nothing of the sort.

For an in depth look at what it means this is a good summary:
Analysis: what is the UK proposing for EU citizens in the UK and EU citizens in the EU?
This is written by a leading immigration law blogger.

What they suggest, is this is probably what will happen in the event of a no deal situation and that hopefully there can be a better final deal. That does seem to be backed by the comments about EU citizens not needing to do anything now (including apply to remain under existing rules under the 85page document) although they are telling the civil service to prepare for a no deal situation. But who knows? Who can trust them?

What we should all be paying close attention to is not just the detail of this, but the language around it.

Numerous politicians have said that they will wait and see what the EU proposal is, even though it has been out for a couple of weeks. This is an effort to discredit and smear the EU.

This comes after Davis had suggested that the UK had achieved a 'victory' by getting the EU to 'agree' to put citizens rights at the time of priorities to be dealt with, even though it was also the top priority for the EU who refuse to talk about anything else until the matter is settled. Everything is being couched as a victory, even if its merely agreeing with the EU and constitutes a compromise by the UK and a row back from previous comments.

Also flying about a lot is confusion over the ECJ and the EHCR. Some of it is ignorant. Some of it is an effort to discredit and smear the ECJ to force a harder Brexit.

The EU position can be found here: EU proposals for post Brexit EU/UK citizens
It is essentially to preserve ALL current rights.

The UK position is to reduce EU citizens rights. This would also enable them to reduce UK citizens rights in the longer term, so what happens here, isn't just about EU nationals rights its also about UK nationals living in the UK.

Of course the proposals also have more significance for UK citizens living in the EU. The UK government have frequently suggested their use of bargaining chips was to help UK citizens living abroad. What has been put on the table could not be further from the truth. The government is quite happy to screw over UK citizens living in the EU. Probably because they are traitors.

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block to a deal is who oversees it all. The UK want it all done purely by UK courts. This is NOT going to happen (unless we have a no deal). There is no way the EU will compromise on this, due to our dreadful track record in deportations with unlawful behaviour and lack of regard for family life. (Thanks Theresa). Systems on the table as an alternative to the ECJ are a new court system - perhaps even merely one with the same judges but with a different name to appease a ignorant British public - or arbitration which is unlikely as it tends to be for states and not businesses or individuals.

It will be interesting to see how this progresses as it should give a good idea of how much we will compromise.

Its also been pointed out that the paper on EU citizens have been the first public document on Brexit which has had any substance. If I was a cynic I might say that Davis is sitting on his arse waiting for the EU to publish their proposals before and merely copying the EU's homework and making changes to it. If that happens to really be the case, then its perhaps a good thing, as our lot really are bloody useless and have no idea what they are talking about.

www.itv.com/news/2017-07-01/top-minister-tells-tories-national-debate-on-tuition-fees-may-be-needed/
Top minister tells Tories: National debate on tuition fees may be needed

The Conservative Party needs to "change hard" if it wants to woo young educated voters away from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour, Theresa May's most senior minister has said.

Damian Green said Britain may need to have a national debate on university tuition fees, as he acknowledged that student debt is a "huge issue".

Labour unexpectedly eroded the Tories' Commons majority in last month's General Election after Mr Corbyn pledged to scrap tuition fees, which are currently capped at £9,250.

Asked about his message for students who backed Labour and are angry about being saddled with debt, Mr Green, who was delivering a speech to the Bright Blue liberal conservative think tank in central London, replied: "I think this is clearly a huge issue.

He added: "If you wanted to say you want to reduce that (fees) then either fewer people go to university or the experience would be less.

Less people going to university?

Good idea. Don't see any problems with that at all.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

fairly convinced that full implications of the "absolutist" position on ECJ were not even understood at top of Govt -eg Unified Patent Court
Re @jameschappers (Ex DD chief) intervw- Euratom important test case. Euratom decision never actually justified as a decision in & of itself
...pretty sure I did most reporting on Euratom first - heard no attempt even to suggest was 1. Sensible. 2. Good 3. Safe 4. Evidence-based..
..rationale was..we're leaving all jurisdiction of ECJ, because its will of the people, therefore we have to leave Euratom because of ECJ..
...and I say this as a journalist who did actually bother to try to explore ECJ as issue in referendum campaign live interview with Cameron
... and as someone who has actually been to ECJ & EFTA Court to try to work out how it all can work - Repeal Bill acknowledges difficulties

This was Brian Cox's take from Jan about Euratom. Just because its to the point:
Brian Cox‏*@ProfBrianCox*
I'm trying to use temperate language, so here goes: Terrifically stupid, utterly shitheaded, myopically parochial idiocy. Pointless damage.

Anyway we have an EU paper on Euratom:

ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/position-paper-transmitted-eu27-nuclear-materials-and-safeguard-equipment-euratom_en
Position paper transmitted to EU27 on nuclear materials and safeguard equipment (Euratom)

It doesn't really say a great deal other than we will be responsible for all nuclear under international law and there might be a cost attached to transporting nuclear material we own back to the UK for which we will be liable.

J.J. Patrick‏*@J*_amesp
See this:
Japan, EU on cusp of free trade agreement after U.S. TPP rebuff

That's all Japanese trade and manufacturing saying goodbye to this broken Brexit dung heap.

But German cars. Custom Union. Wibble.

Survation poll finally out:

01/07 CON 41.1% LAB 40.0% LD 6.8% UKIP 2.3% Other 9.9%

19/6 CON 40.5% LAB 44.0%; LD 5.8% UKIP 1.6% Others 8.1%

EU Referendum Voting Intention (with change from last Survation poll 19/6*)
Leave 46% (-3)
Remain 54% (+3)

survation.com/conservative-party-voting-intention-steadies-public-mood-continues-shift-soft-brexit/

I think this guy is completely deluded. They have still not realised the scale of their idiocity over the last few years.
Somebody said here that Tories are the cockroaches of politics. They might be. But at least for the time being they have thoroughly misjudged and have appeared completely inept at handling disasters, actually multiplying them with each step.
There is literally no way any of the young Corbyn supporters are ever going to vote for Tories because they suddenly have realised the tuition fees was a bad idea. In fact, it will have quite the opposite effect.

On the Chuka amendment attempt, I read this and it kind of resonates with what I said here last night. I said my feeling was there is a need of slow build up of opinion. This impatience is the key to losing the argument with a big, left-out section of our society. This section is quite sick of all sorts of ballot papers too right now, mainly because it is far too much information for everyone to process.
We saw how few weeks changed everything for a much better situation after election.
We just need some patience right now. We can't afford leaving EU. But we have to take everyone aboard, even if it comes at a price.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/30/chuka-umunna-single-market-amendment-brexit-split-labour-party

On another note, Mike Galsworthy tweeted a nice thing today, again with the same underlying note that I said I feel last night. Only his target is far more intellectual than what Labour leadership is addressing these days. Ever you passing hour is making Chuka look stupid at best.

This is I suspect them not listening to actual students but to the myth that they are all naive and fell for the promise of a simple bribe by Corbyn. Another variant is that anyone can buy votes with promises they cannot deliver.

I have not seen any evidence of that, only evidence that their decision process was much more sophisticated. For sure the free tuition fees enjoyed by previous generations are a huge source of resentment but that is part of a wider resentment that making their lives in this country is harder than for previous generations and has been made harder by this Conservative government /Brexit etc. That in itself part of a wider concern about increased inequality and the effects of austerity. All the evidence I have seen is that it is the latter which most motivated the student vote and where Labour, and indeed the Libdems where they were the greatest hope of unseating the Tories, had something to offer. In this Tory / libdem marginal constituency the vote increased by about 7000 overall, the Tory held their share of the vote though no Kipper may well have meant their 3000 replaced Tory Remain defectors / non voters. Labour stayed the same. There was a 10000 majority for the Libdems and a lot of that was young voters turning out for the first time, that is not to mention the many who turned out to support the campaign. A 73 year old man had no problem with earning their enthusiasm. The Libdems of course made no promise of free tuition though they did promise to reinstate the maintenance grant. The Conservatives need to wake up and realise their plans for the NHS and welfare state are "the huge issue", alongside Brexit and the wider issues affecting education, they won't get away with bribing them by reducing tuition fees and putting a few universities they regard as "lesser" by whatever measure they care to come up with out of business (and the current measure would include in that LSE and UCL who have both achieved only the lowest tier - bronze status)

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 40% (-4)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-)
GRN: 1% (+1)

(via @Survation, 28-30 Jun)
Chgs w 17 Jun

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45%
CON: 39%
LDEM: 5%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 2%

(via @OpiniumResearch / 27 - 29 Jun)

How come these polls are showing LDEM increasing a share of their vote? I haven't seen much of a change in national narrative about LDEM since election. So i can't understand that.
In our constituency, the expectation was that LDEM will do very well and Labour a bit better may be. It was completely opposite of that.
sometjinggave me satisfaction today: apparently, IDS in Chingford and Woodford Green seat is a target for Labour right now and he is unsettled enough by this campaign. His campaign has pleaded support from the party and of course the email got leaked.
I would love to see that email thrown at him in some interview.

A discussion about Labour v Lib Dems in two related twitter storms:

Abi Wilkinson@AbiWilks
They get called cultish but I reckon the average Corbyn-chanting leftist understands politicians always disappoint better than many liberals
Everyone asks why remain voting leftists aren't furious about Corbyn's Brexit stance, but left more used to accepting compromise than most
For me at least, I've spent my political life being told p much everything I think matters is impossible. Chance at some of it is exciting
I think Brexit is a bad idea (though Labour's limited in what it can do) but I look at some of more militant Remainer rage and it's like...
Welcome to the club! Inspired by @SuzeMarsupial been musing why 48% hasn't attracted left, think it's notion everything was fine b4 Brexit
(I should have specified that I mean the part of the left that tries to engage with parliamentary politics, where it has been marginalised)

Richard Gadsden‏*@po8crg*
I'm going to riff off this because it's the clearest expression of something that I've seen from quite a few on the left.
To be clear, this isn't about Abi in particular (which is why I've detagged her) but about the Corbynite left in general.
There are certainly some Remainers who think everything was fine until 23 June 2016. They're right-wing Remainers: Tories and Orange Bookers
^But for most of us, things weren't fine. Things were bad. From Major to Blair to Brown to the coalition to that awful last Tory year.
Richard Gadsden^
But the one consistent thread that would stand up to the Government, the one group that would stop the worst was the EU. Time after time.
Social chapter, working hours directive, gays in the military, equal pay for work of equal value, time and again it was Europe.
We had a somewhat decent immigration policy because the EU wouldn't let Home Secretaries from Blunkett on make it indecent.
And then the referendum cut away that one thread of hope. The one thing that could stop the worst of the right-wing British governments.
And Labour's left had always been prepared to risk electoral popularity for principle. It was the one thing I really admired them for.
When we needed them over Iraq, they came through. They faced the people who said they hated our soldiers and stood at our side.
And then came Brexit. I knew some were pro-Brexit, and I have no problem respecting that. They're wrong, but I don't expect their support.
But there's another generation - Clive Lewis in parliament, journalists like Abi Wilkinson and Ellie Mae O'Hagan and Owen Jones...
They'd campaigned for Remain, and meant it. But now, because the Labour leader is from the left, they won't criticise him when he's wrong.
Now, the generation that cut their teeth on fighting austerity were going to accept the biggest austerity of them all in Brexit.
And they were going to do so partly because their leader agreed with it, and partly because they wanted the votes of racists.
"We can't win an election by opposing Brexit". Well everyone told you you couldn't win an election from the left. Then you basically did.
That's what you do. That's why you exist in politics. To smash the Overton Window and to campaign for the seemingly impossible.
We thought you were allies in this fight. So that's why we're disappointed. Just like you were when we joined a Tory coalition.
So if you're going to leave us alone, we'll take a leaf from your book. We'll fight alone. Let's see if we can match Corbyn's results.

Rock fielding melon the deputy leader of k&C council who resigned is planning to build 300 houses on the outskirts of Norwich on Thorpe Woods. So far it has been rejected but he is expected to appeal. Its in the Eastern Daily Press today. Apparently he gas other interests in companies in the East.

howabout I was just listing the EU preferences.
imo, they would prefer still Remain, just because of the sheer chaos likely - mostly affecting the UK - when complex links that have evolved over 40+ years are completely severered

However, they are assuming Brexit, hence negotiating hard on the 3 issues that they prioritized:
expats, NI, exit bill.

General EU consensus, as reported on Germany, is that a pre-Brexit trade deal is unlikely because the UK negotiators:

• seem to have no idea of what is possible and what they themselves want (other than cake)
• show no sense of urgency about the 3 prerequisites, so talks on trade may be delayed until the A50 clock runs out.

The only deal that would give the UK the kind of trade access it has now - which is what both Labour and Tory claim they want - is EEA / EFTA with negotiated add-ons, such as services
That means FOM and ECJ. There can be cosmetic tweaks, but the basic terms don't change.

The delusion is among those Leave supporters, in or out of Parliament, who do not realise this fact.
Who think the EU is just playing hardball to force the UK to revoke A50
It isn't.

If the UK does not start negotiating realistically, then there will at most be a quick deal on a few very restricted areas, e.g. cars and aerospace.
This will in no way resemble what the UK has now, so some businesses and jobs will leave the UK

Leavers also don't seem to realise that the UK automatically loses also all the hundreds of TAs (trade arrangements) and trade deals with countries around the world, that it shares as part of the EU.
So, the UK starts in a weak position for negotiations with those other countries too

This should be obvious, but apparently not to most Leavers:

• The UK is facing a Brexit without trade deals with any country in the world also with having to reproduce from scratch the work of umpteen vital agencies like Euratom
• The EU is facing Brexit without a trade deal with the UK

It should be obvious which side is in desperate straits

17th April 2016 - Grenfell Action Group.
' It is our belief of many in our community that Councillor Mr Rock Feilding-Melen may be inappropriately using his position on the council for Hus own benefit....'
' we believe he had prior knowledge if the details of the councils forward planning for the regeneration of the Latimer Area and we believe his decision to purchase his current residence in Bramley Road may have been made in anticipation of the likely increase in the value of that property as a direct consequence of the councils regeneration policy which he has exercised considerable power and influence over as a cabinet member for housing and regeneration.'........

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
REMAIN takes 8% lead in Brexit referendum voting intention from Survation
EU Referendum Voting Intention
Remain 54%
Leave 46% excl DKs

This is slightly misleading because it does not include Don't Knows who were probably the influential and decisive group in the referendum.

There is a but coming here though:

Oh those x council members really not smelling of roses.

Yet... this...
I'm thinking that this will tip labour party terrified of the EDL and the UKIPs into courage. Hopefully. Good poll

They're all scared; those who realise what is coming (it feels like waiting for a war to start).

They all need an excuse to pull back, hopefully the tide will start to turn to rational thinking.

More from Survation on this poll:
survation.com/conservative-party-voting-intention-steadies-public-mood-continues-shift-soft-brexit/
Conservative Party voting intention steadies while public mood continues shift to “Soft Brexit”

Some other notable things
No deal is a bad thing - 66% (in April this was just 56%)
No deal is better than a bad deal - 26%
DK - 8% (was 16% in April)

Think May's Deal will be right and trust her judgement
Accept her judgment 51% (was 58%)
Don't accept 44% (was 31%)
DK 5% (was 11%)

So upwards of 25% DK on EU according to Ashcroft (?) and relative stronger Conservative position in those who have made up their mind from Survation?

Doesn't look like it indicates very much change to me.

From today's Guardian by Ireland's former Irish prime minister John Bruton:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/01/brexit-britain-europe-eu-john-bruton

"It is important for UK negotiators to remind themselves, every day, that Brexit is a British initiative. Because it is the initiator, the chief responsibility for making Brexit work for the 27 remaining EU countries rests with Britain. If Brexit damages the rest of Europe, Britain has a primary responsibility to find a way to mitigate that damage.

The remarkable thing about the discussion in the UK, over the past year, is that no ideas have been forthcoming on how to resolve the problems Brexit will cause for other EU countries. The only thought has been about what the UK should want for itself.

The EU is a rules-based institution, and EU membership is attractive for smaller countries, like Ireland, precisely because it is a rules-based institution, rather than one based on the exercise of raw power.

A country that has left the EU, and is no longer willing to submit to its common rules and to the jurisdiction of the court that interprets those rules, cannot expect to retain the main benefits of membership. That would undermine the EU’s essential nature.

Following the debate in the UK, one might think Brexit was something that was being done by the EU to an unwilling Britain, rather than the reverse.

It was Britain’s free decision to join the union 44 years ago, and since then the other members have done their best to accommodate British needs. It was exempted from aspects of EU policies such as the euro, the Schengen passport-free zone, justice and home affairs cooperation and, for a time, the social chapter of the EU treaties. The UK’s budget contribution was modified through a rebate, and agricultural policy was modified.

And throughout, Britain remained a full voting member, with immense ability to stop policies it did not like. The UK was, you might say, having its cake and eating it.

Now that it is at last starting to negotiate to leave the EU, Britain may get a greater sense of what it is freely giving up. It will lose common arrangements on everything from flights taking off and landing, lorries on the roads, the safety of food, the movement of workers, and many more matters on which agreed standards have been built up over the past 44 years of painstaking work. It will lose the benefits of hundreds of treaties the EU has negotiated with other countries.

The UK will have to negotiate a new deal on every topic, then agree a procedure for subsequently amending, enforcing, and interpreting each one. This is what the Swiss, with their 120 different treaties with the EU, currently enjoy: a lot of very unproductive work. But it is the path the UK has chosen.

I told a London audience, long before the referendum, that as an Irishman I would regard a British decision to leave the EU – after four decades during which our two countries were bound together by our common EU membership – as an “unfriendly act” towards a neighbour. I have not changed my mind."

Bigchoc Liam Fox says he is already on the case with grandfathering trade deals. I am sure you and I will disagree on his likely success rate but that is a different matter.

Here we see the Brexit dilemmas for politicians:

Other polls indicate most people think the Brexit referendum results should be respected
but
this poll - if not an outlier- suggests that the narrow Brexit majority then is gone.

Polls that have asked people how the amount of money they personally would be prepare to lose annually, in order to Brexit, consistently find that hardly anyone would accept losing money.

When they ask people if they personally expect to lose financially from Brexit, the overwhelming % of Leavers don't, whereas most Remainers do.

My conclusion is that a Brexit that delivers all the dog whistle end of FOM and ECJ would still anger the great majority of people if they personally lose financially AND realise this is because of Brexit

The Tories may judge they have a better chance of hoodwinking the public about why they are poorer than of surviving the humiliation of giving up on their red lines

howabout So far only Canada have indicated they would do a cut and paste / grandfathering deal

Other countries may well expect to negotiate a new deal on better terms from the UK than they had with the EU of 28 countries.
India, other Asian, African countries have already given notice of this.
Donald "Art of the Deal" Trump is not known for being generous to the weak either.
The UK is in a much more desperate position that the EU was. Sharks will circle round.

It will likely take several years to get back to a set of deals approaching what we currently have with the rest of the world.

Any deal with the EU will NOT have all the current benefits.
Losing trade with the colossal trade bloc that is our nearest neighbour will be very difficult to replace

Is it just me who doesn't get this rush of confidence hearing
"Liam Fox is already on the case " ?

He's nothing to show after nearly a year, except a nod from Canada
That's one down, about 160 non-EU countries to go ...

Wasn't Liam Fox going to have trade deals in place by 16th September 2016? This date came and went. Now we are told to watch out for something happening on 24th July, (this year, not ten years time.)

liam fox is on the case
Literally standing on it so people can't open it and find it empty.