Westminstenders: The 3 Million get their first offer.

[RedToothBrush]

The UK have finally put forward their proposals for EU citizens living in the UK. These 'bargaining chips' have been offered a 'generous deal' which is nothing of the sort.

For an in depth look at what it means this is a good summary:
Analysis: what is the UK proposing for EU citizens in the UK and EU citizens in the EU?
This is written by a leading immigration law blogger.

What they suggest, is this is probably what will happen in the event of a no deal situation and that hopefully there can be a better final deal. That does seem to be backed by the comments about EU citizens not needing to do anything now (including apply to remain under existing rules under the 85page document) although they are telling the civil service to prepare for a no deal situation. But who knows? Who can trust them?

What we should all be paying close attention to is not just the detail of this, but the language around it.

Numerous politicians have said that they will wait and see what the EU proposal is, even though it has been out for a couple of weeks. This is an effort to discredit and smear the EU.

This comes after Davis had suggested that the UK had achieved a 'victory' by getting the EU to 'agree' to put citizens rights at the time of priorities to be dealt with, even though it was also the top priority for the EU who refuse to talk about anything else until the matter is settled. Everything is being couched as a victory, even if its merely agreeing with the EU and constitutes a compromise by the UK and a row back from previous comments.

Also flying about a lot is confusion over the ECJ and the EHCR. Some of it is ignorant. Some of it is an effort to discredit and smear the ECJ to force a harder Brexit.

The EU position can be found here: EU proposals for post Brexit EU/UK citizens
It is essentially to preserve ALL current rights.

The UK position is to reduce EU citizens rights. This would also enable them to reduce UK citizens rights in the longer term, so what happens here, isn't just about EU nationals rights its also about UK nationals living in the UK.

Of course the proposals also have more significance for UK citizens living in the EU. The UK government have frequently suggested their use of bargaining chips was to help UK citizens living abroad. What has been put on the table could not be further from the truth. The government is quite happy to screw over UK citizens living in the EU. Probably because they are traitors.

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block to a deal is who oversees it all. The UK want it all done purely by UK courts. This is NOT going to happen (unless we have a no deal). There is no way the EU will compromise on this, due to our dreadful track record in deportations with unlawful behaviour and lack of regard for family life. (Thanks Theresa). Systems on the table as an alternative to the ECJ are a new court system - perhaps even merely one with the same judges but with a different name to appease a ignorant British public - or arbitration which is unlikely as it tends to be for states and not businesses or individuals.

It will be interesting to see how this progresses as it should give a good idea of how much we will compromise.

Its also been pointed out that the paper on EU citizens have been the first public document on Brexit which has had any substance. If I was a cynic I might say that Davis is sitting on his arse waiting for the EU to publish their proposals before and merely copying the EU's homework and making changes to it. If that happens to really be the case, then its perhaps a good thing, as our lot really are bloody useless and have no idea what they are talking about.

Ive read a few of the articles this am about eu citizens.
My conclusion is that TM is basically doing what I said she was going to do a year ago.
She is moving eu citizens as 'immigrants' and is treating them the same. Hence the need to reapply forma settled status if you leave the uk, children having to apply etc etc. Her proposal is basically that with a pinch of 'we are not going to kick everyone out after brexit' because this would be too hard to organise, unwelcomed by the word at large, in general and we do need those pesky foreigners so we can't afford to it

I'm notnexpectingberbti move from that position. There will some small modifications but i expect that overall this will be the final position. A way to be able to claim they be protected eu citizens but actually still treating them as immigrants with one of the worse immigration rules in the world. All smoke.
I don't think the eu will be duped. But I also don't think they will be able to do a lot about it.

Hillsborough - Grenfell will be another Hillsborough. We wont get answers or 'punishment' for another 30 years.
At best we can HOPE that lessons will be learnt and that more stringent rules will be implemented re H &S and fire.
Or maybe not because you know, there is not such a thing as a magic money tree....
And poor people aren't worth all that money anyway.

Sorry I MIGHT be in a very negative phase today!

Interesting detail on ConservativeHome from Francis Maude "It’s often forgotten that when Margaret Thatcher was first elected in 1979 she secured more votes proportionally from voters under 35 than from voters over 35."

That's because it was a different world. For all its faults, there was a sense that if, as a young person, you worked hard and did your best, you could achieve all the stuff she was promising - a house, good job, travel, an exciting future.

My DH and I both had widowed mums. Mine hadn't worked for a few years and I used to pick up my mum's supplementary benefit from the post office. His was a part-time dinner lady. We met overseas in the early 90s after both capturing the spirit of what Mrs T seemed to offer - him in an international bank, me in a firm of city solicitors. It had never occurred to either of us that we couldn't do what we wanted. No internships, maintenance grant, no tuition fees, he borrowed £5,000 as a deposit on his first flat in London etc etc. A million miles away from the world Thatcher's legacy has created.

In relation to May's offer for EU citizens I suspect the EU will simply utilise that famous MN phrase "I'm afraid that's not going to work for us". The UK is really not in a position of power in these negotiations. Either we offer something acceptable to the EU that meets their agreed stance or we walk away from negotiations, which would be a disaster for the UK and really would destroy the Tory party.

There is also the danger (for the Tories) that the negotiations on EU citizens will hold up the trade talks, while the clock is ticking. I don't understand why they don't simply reciprocate the EU offer, perhaps negotiate a bit over the enforcement mechanism. Public opinion could probably get behind offering current EU residents a decent deal.

I fear you might be right about Grenfell though red. Or at least I believe that is what the Tories would like to happen. However, while I worry about Labour's approach to Brexit, things like keeping the pressure on about Grenfell and attacking austerity are absolutely Corbyn's strengths. These are exactly the kind of issues he has fought on for decades even when it seemed opinion was against him. He also has an advantage that as he was categorically against the Blair Government the Tories attempts to lay the blame on labour slide right off him. I feel more confident he will continue to doggedly raise Grenfell over and over again, no matter what the Tories try.

It's a shame I am not yet as confident he will do the same about the Brexit shambles.

missmoon, It's because the Tory party is still in the grip of the UKIP/right of the party who demand complete control over borders (or at least the illusion of it) and secondly May has an unhealthy obsession with blaming immigrants for all the countries woes. She has done for years. It's frankly a bit unhinged.

So, the home office is phrasing their tweets like May's offer to EU citizens is a done deal. I wonder how that's going to go down in negotiations?

twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/880312393875599361

Interesting detail on ConservativeHome from Francis Maude "It’s often forgotten that when Margaret Thatcher was first elected in 1979 she secured more votes proportionally from voters under 35 than from voters over 35.

Now the same people who are voting Tory and Brexit. As a young left of centre voter in the 1980s I was told voting for Thatcher was mind over matter. 'I don't mind and they don't matter'. I've never stopped being appalled by that.

So, the home office is phrasing their tweets like May's offer to EU citizens is a done deal. I wonder how that's going to go down in negotiations?

Barnier can always turn his phone off for 36 hours to concentrate Tory minds...

I still think the EU will not budge. They have the democratic will of over 300 million people behind them, so they win.

Also, Brexit is a perfect opportunity for the EU to actually prove it's worth. Because if they can't stand up for their citizens in these negotiations, then what's the point of them ?

Thing is LH the rEU citizens who will no longer have FoM to the UK post Brexit may well wonder why their EU is wasting time and resources on people who would rather live in post Brexit UK.

I think it is pretty unsustainable long term to want to partially run the immigration system of a country outwith EU borders. The rights to permanent residence in the UK being offered to EU Nationals currently here go far beyond EU FoM Treaty rights. The issues surrounding rights to come to the UK to work post Brexit are another matter.

Have Kensington Council even heard of public relations. FFS.

I have worked a lot of council meetings, many with controversial issues and large protests present. You do not close a public meeting like this on a subject so important. You get in a lot of extra security and you carefully manage the meeting, make sure everyone knows the rules and provide outside space for any protestors. Ideally you live stream it as well so people don't need to fit in the room to hear and if possible you allow key local figures to speak.

Yes it is hard. Yes it is risky and there may be trouble. But it is not as hard as losing your home and friends in an avoidable accident and it is not as hard as managing the fall out of people seeing conspiracy and avoidance from their local council. Also nobody is going to believe the violence excuse when they won't even let press in.

Grenfell Tower: Survivors Banned From Council Meeting Because Of Fear Of Violence
Kensington councillors will meet behind closed doors.
m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_595437c1e4b05c37bb7bdad6/amp

"It’s often forgotten that when Margaret Thatcher was first elected in 1979 she secured more votes proportionally from voters under 35 than from voters over 35."

That's not something I had seen before, but certainly explains why the Tory voters are now likely to be getting on a bit. This assumes that people don't change their views with age.

Having said that, I was under 35 in 1979 and have never voted Tory in a GE, and can't imagine ever starting. But who knows? My now deceased DF deserted from lifelong Labour support after about 60 years when Blair got in (not to vote Tory though.)

It's not exactly transparent government is it? All you think is what do they have to hide and it's all about protecting their arses. I saw the story last night and went wtf.

It's an invitation for protest outside the meeting. They could invite people into the meeting to ease tensions. This is the worst of all worlds.

"So, the home office is phrasing their tweets like May's offer to EU citizens is a done deal. I wonder how that's going to go down in negotiations?"

Those HO tweets are bizarre, aren't they?

And the self important title

Our Offer to EU citizens and their families
Thanks a fucking bunch.

Love the simplistic patronising cases studies

And yes, how can they state this is the offer when this has not been agreed yet with the EU.

twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/880312393875599361

I do very much live the twitter comments underneath this jazzy animation.

UK = Laughing stock of the world. Gov coup d'eta on the back of non binding ref. Disgraceful!!

65million EU citizens in this country want to know how this is 'Same or Better' than what we have now? Governments words not ours!

This is simply not good enough. You shame our country.

Nothing short of being treated like second class citizens!!

You're providing info which is subject to negotiation with the EU and therefore likely to change... #BrexitShambles is a f*cking disgrace.

But then of course some suffering from tall poppy syndrome

Why EU citizens given more rights than Brits after we leave? Why force Brits to pay £8k in fees & earn £18,600 to live with non EU spouse?

The EU may just have to lower the rights for UK citizens in the EU, if it is to be reciprocal. If this happened, because of the change in rights, I suspect it may have to go to each country to ratify and maybe a referendum or two. It will be changing the existing legislation. Could be wrong, but I do suspect that. The UK could have just issued that reduction of rights offer ages ago. It is not really different from the way any migrant is treated in the UK. They obviously wanted to be able to use them as cards. I have come to the conclusion, and it is only my opinion, that there are lots of f*ckers in the Conservative party. Not exclusively (I have one or two who I respect), but predominantly.

The 1billion is not dependent on Stormont being up and running. It is just that the how and where it is spent will be from the Cons, rather than the NI assembly. It is for devolved issues, education, health, infrastructure etc. , so would normally be the Assembly's realm. I'm not sure about the half billion of existing money that would be released immediately to a working Stormont. Again, Con's will prob decide what that goes on too.

The only way the UK could stay with the EMA is if it is in the EEA. No voice though, and acceptance of ECJ necessary.

EEA is surely pretty much a transitional arrangement for what we have already except that it is more expensive and comes with fewer rights. Don't think May would care about any of that if she succeeded in getting rid of the ECJ jurisdiction but for EU citizens in the UK, some new body? Even MORE money to lawyers.

I'm struggling to see how eu countries could pass regulations for British citizens that would leave them worse of than any other immigrants.
Eg in France, you can bring your spouse and children from a non eu country. But if they were to have a system equivalent to the uk, then they couldn't unless they met x and y requirements (including income etc...)

What I have noticed though, is that since the UK has signed the Art50, the eu is now busy with doing what they had wanted to do all along, but couldn't because of the uk.
Changing the eu, going for a more federal system, the eu army etc etc.

In some ways showing how much the uk had an influence on the eu and how much it stopped it from evolving in a certain direction.

The rules for family reunification for citizens living in their 'own' country are already not the same as if those citizens were living in a different EU country. Maybe the assumption is because they have moved to a different country for work? For NL it isn't a specific income restriction but proof of work is needed.

Unless I have missed something, there is absolutely no incentive whatsoever for the rEU to water anything down to suit the UK. What's the absolute worst that can happen if they refuse to back down ? Negotiations stall at "EU citizens rights" and don't progress. No skin off their nose, and I'm sure they'll ride out the jam drought.

Meanwhile, because a fucking dimwit dipshit Prime Minister rushed to trigger A50, the clock will carry on ticking. No skin off the EUs nose at all. (Except they send a clear signal to the rest of the world that - unlike the UK - they are methodical, precise, clear in what they mean, and capable negotiators).

That's my reading of it.

I did email Nigel Farage, asking if he would help me crowdfund a big clock on the side of the houses of parliament, counting down the days to A50. I don't think he thought I was being serious ....

iswym, RedPeppers, they would have to agree to such a reduced rights situation to meet the UK's proposition, that they would be in effect second class immigrants. However, if it changed so much it may have to go back to each country, to ratify, as a national competency. Maybe even Wallonia. Otherwise, the EU would have to unilaterally guarantee the present arrangement for UK citizens while the UK treats EU citizens like dirt in comparison.