Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

The Opposition would then probably win a landslide and stay in power for many years

Austerity and the bad management of public services may keep the Tories out for years.

The referendum means many ordinary people have culpability for Brexit and may not be so keen to blame the politicos. Of course, they can blame them for the lack of cake and unicorns.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/24/labour-told-by-unions-back-soft-brexit?CMP=twt_gu
‘Back soft Brexit,’ trade unions urge Labour

My memory of minority / tiny majority govts is that they struggled badly to get through legislation.
Also, with the greater stress on host MPs, they tended to have more byelections

The Opposition only have to win one vote; the Govt have to win every time

Attempting to pass such a huge stream of complex bills such as would be required for Brexit in such a short time would be difficult even if all their MPs were 100% in favour, because an Opposition that refuses to "pair" - i.e. requires MPs are actually present to note - would make the process hell.

Even 7 Tory rebels at each vote could completely block legislation - but for Brexit they'd need a few extra rebels to counter Kate Hoey & co from Labour

greater stress on govt MPs

I'm guessing from that though that if Arconic advised on the risk, then it is not their responsibility for what the panels were used for as they had passed on the relevant information.

I imagine that this is like Doctors prescribing a drug for some purpose other than recommended - which happens.

Reading the full post, I had a feeling that this would rumble on for years - something like Hillsborough, with buck passing to and fro and no one getting an enormous fine and no one being sent to prison for it. The only glimmer of hope is that it has shown how rotten to the core the plans for austerity and cutting red tape for the sake of cutting it are. I hope we hear a bit less now of 'health and safety gone mad'. Health and safety is there for a reason.

But Choc how are the other Labour MPs going to vote on Brexit bills? Do we have any idea?

They mostly backed the unamended A50 bill, after all.

Gumpendorf The public may well demonise the govt that carries out Brexit

Rather like they demonise Blair for Iraq, when most people were in favour - rare to find any voter who admits to being mistaken about Iraq
Those I argued with at the time said Saddam was an evil dictator who supported terrorism - kept asking me how I could justify not bringing him down. The 40 minutes WMD was only an occasional backup argument

They now claim they were fooled by the WMD sexing up that Blair ordered.
However, that wasn't something they mentioned at the time, just an excuse to justify being fooled.

Similarly, I expect Leavers will claim they only voted Brexit because were lied to: plenty of lies to choose from, what with the 350 million, unicorns, taking back control etc

4 fires a day in British schools:
www.abi.org.uk/news/news-articles/2016/08/government-warned-against-abandoning-school-sprinkler-guidance/

And 72 Scottish schools with building defects:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39580308

Edinburgh school wall collapse report highlights 'lack of scrutiny'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-38907714

Patty At most 10 Labour MPs would go against a Labour whip for Brexit,

Corbyn can state Labour policy is Brexit, while still damaging the Tories by amendments on umpteen bills, for things that Labour want.
Hell, even tag on amendments to force the reverse of some of the nastier benefit cuts

If he whips to vote with the govt every time, that would be very odd for a Labour Opposition and would anger supporters, not just Remainers.

I mean at most 10 MPs are Brexiters who would vote with the govt
Up to 30 would defy the whip to vote against, plus the Tory rebels

^Women's march: Activists protest against Conservative deal with DUP
Demonstrators descend on Downing Street, chanting, 'Racist, sexist, anti-gay, no DUP, no way^
'
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/womens-march-abortion-conservatives-dup-deal-tory-protest-parliament-downing-street-a7806776.html

We are back

(Telegraph paywall) Brexit talks have proven to be a shambles from the off

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/24/brexit-talks-have-proven-shambles/

So, exactly a year after the referendum, our Brexit talks have finally groaned into action, prefaced at the insistence of the 
EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier by discussion of the three issues which he had ruled must be 
resolved before there can be any talks on a trade deal.

On the first, the post-Brexit status of EU and UK citizens, despite our being told that this is going well, much still remains to be argued over, such as the role of the European Court of Justice
< that's solveable, if the Cabinet over rules May, who is the real blocker here >

The second issue is the so-called “divorce bill” we have to pay for our share in all those ongoing financial commitments under the EU budget we have already signed up to as members.

This, I was estimating here last summer, is likely to end up at £30-40 billion.
But the final figure cannot be calculated until the end of the EU’s current Multiannual Financial Framework in 2020.
< ok, the requirement was just to agree the rules for calculation, not the final bill. However, paying any bill will enrage the Ultras >

The third issue, the Northern Irish border, cannot be resolved until we have agreed the nature of our future trading arrangements with the EU.
< this is what can wreck any deal, as well as the arrangement with the DUP >

So by a Catch-22, we can’t discuss trade until we’ve agreed about Northern Ireland, which we can’t discuss until we’ve agreed about trade.

What a shambles it is all already becoming.

< don't forget: Spain may block any deal if they don't like how Gibraltar is dealt with.
RoI said they will block a deal that produces a hard border >

< Unless either the EU (unlikely) or the UK back down a LOT, looks like a cliff edge choice in Autumn 2018 between cliff edge Brexit and Remain >

< fist bumps > to woman

we're still here, bigchoc

I wonder if the women's movement will reach places SF is unable to. Whatever, it's got to be a good thing to show what the DUP are.

On the other hand red, being an idiot, has its attractions too (a la Greek model)

I like Socrates too. One of his famous statements is "I know that I know nothing." Always seems a good place to start, or end.

^So by a Catch-22, we can’t discuss trade until we’ve agreed about Northern Ireland, which we can’t discuss until we’ve agreed about trade.
^
Presumably that's similar for Gibraltar too?

Big Choc, you're right that people will feel lied to and turn against the politicians and the papers who pushed Brexit so fervently -and are going v quiet now. I think there is a different dynamic with Iraq though, because 1. people didn't have to vote and 2. mostly it's a different demographic - I suspect many of the people in my area who voted Leave didn't have a view on Iraq then or now.

That Telegraph article is interesting, Big Choc, precisely because of what we were saying earlier. The Telegraph was chief cheerleader and its now recognising the problems and our inadequacy. Softening up its readers for a leader that says it's those nasty Europeans but we do have to compromise for the sake of the country and our owners wealth ?

David Davis on marr still maintaining that the German car industry and Bavarian farmers etc will eventually put pressure on their governments to give the uk a good Brexit deal

Pressure from German car makers is bigger than pressure from British industry?

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4636072/I-voted-Brexit-slow-process-down.html
I voted for Brexit but we MUST slow the process down, writes LORD WOLFSON, the chief executive of Next

Lord Wolfson we may not have the ability to slow the process down...

Marr: no row of the summer then?
Davis: not at the moment

Someone was saying how they felt uneasy about Corbyn on the last thread but couldn't necesarily express it:

Stephen Bush @ Stephen KB
V possible that Corbyn could become PM as least-scrutinised, but most belittled candidate and movement in British political history.

This tweet should make you think as it's right. In the fever of Corbyn mania, too many supporters are too quick to hurl abuse at anyone who doesn't share their enthusiasm. Then there's the 'fully coated manifesto' which is used as a way to deflect proper scrutiny.

The chicken coup happened for a reason. Some of those reasons were based on wrong assumptions. I don't believe all of them were fatally flawed though.

Don't get me wrong but whilst I very much see sound thoughts in Corbyn's labour ATM I also see real danger too from this lack of scrutiny.

The 'msm' having it in for Corbyn was based on Corbyn personally. So criticism of policy has been much more limited. The same has gone for Labour supporters to a large extent. The Brexit strategy is the obvious one, for which Labour have no real answer. Apart from that the real criticism seems to be over a magic money tree. There is nothing much more.

This bothers me. Particularly as there is a distinct lack of self criticism post election - not arguing the toss criticism but constructive criticism. The politics of hope don't allow for such negativity. I can understand to an extent why MPs aren't doing it, particularly at the moment. The chicken coup is significant now for this reason: it killed off this type of criticism of policy.

Political opposition is rather imputant against Corbyn too now. Personal attacks don't stick. And attacks on policy are now safe because of the last twelve months and because the politics of hope allow you to promise the earth as you are not delivering it too.

This might well be to Corbyn's advantage in the short term. In the long term for the Labour party as a whole? It's not terribly healthy. If Labour do get in, attempts to enact some of this poorly scrutised stuff on a practical level will just fail.

Matthew Holehouse @ matthewholehouse
Bingo. Davis says UK looking at three-person joint arbitration committee on citizens rights. V similar to application of Schengen in EEA

Steve Peers @ stevepeers
Schengen Mixed Committee isn't "arbitration". EEA main focus is EFTA Court, arbitration is marginal in practice. Did DD give those examples?

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
David Davis reveals he wants a Brexit transition of "1 to 2 years". Hammond indicated 4 years or more this week. Big Cabinet divide #Marr

Craig Oliver @ craigoliver100
Also @DavidDavisMP won't agree with @PhilipHammondUK that no deal is "very bad". Need to all agree a line and stick to it, or looks v messy.

Anyone got any thoughts on parallels between Corbynism and Chartism btw? Chartists were working class largely city dwellers who wanted better democratic representation and rights. They were more of a pressure group using public protest to achieve goals. Opposition was Tory industrialists/elite.

Charterists most popular in times of economic deprivation and hunger. Corbyn now popular due to austerity policies, the advent of food banks and 4 million children in poverty. I think people underestimate the real poverty in this country. They don't understand it. Corbyns popularity beside the remain voters is because people want change from austerity and poverty. But globalisation is going to make that an idealistic dream.