Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

Um...

Norman Lamont and the ERM crash, anyone?
Back to basics?
The privatisation of the railways?

He was fatally hampered by a low majority, of course he was, and a normal and moderate person, but he wasn't some king over the water either. I haven't included Bosnia in that list because the situation was so complex that it would have taken a saint or a genius to get it right, but I think he got it more wrong than some others would have done.

annadale, these things are relative.

TBH I think the ERM crash was better for the UK in the long run.

I am pro-EU but don't think the Euro as a project doesn't work and is one of the major problems with the EU.

It effectively means you can't control your own debt as a country.

I'm not saying I like Major (I was devastated by the 1992 result and delighted at the 1997 result): I'm just suggesting that this is how history might see them in hindsight. "Grey is good"

Peregrina - should probably have mentioned the poll tax as contributing to Thatcher's downfall. But it was my recollection that the specific incident that led to the leadership challenge was arguments with her cabinet about the ERM. It is a long time ago. I do remember being horrified that she had been deposed as she was the best chance of ensuring a Labour victory at the next election.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-fire-arconic-idUSKBN19F05M
Arconic knowingly supplied flammable panels for use in tower: emails

When asked about the emails, Arconic said in a statement that it had known the panels would be used at Grenfell Tower but that it was not its role to decide what was or was not compliant with local building regulations.

and

Diagrams in a 2016 Arconic brochure for its Reynobond panels describe how PE core panels are suitable up to 10 meters in height. Panels with a fire resistant core the FR model can be used up to 30 meters, while above that height, panels with the non-combustible core the A2 model should be used, the brochure says.

Grenfell Tower is more than 60 meters tall.

The brochure also issued a blunt warning that cladding can be a fire risk.

"When conceiving a building, it is crucial to choose the adapted products in order to avoid the fire to spread to the whole building. Especially when it comes to facades and roofs, the fire can spread extremely rapidly," the brochure said.

and

Arconic, which was known as Alcoa Inc until 2016, declined to say if it knew how tall the tower was and the emails seen by Reuters do not specifically refer to its height. They do, however, refer to "Grenfell Tower" and mention other high rise projects where paneling has been used when discussing the appearance that was being sought for Grenfell Tower.

and

Arconic also knew the quantity of panels being supplied and thus the total exterior coverage. A source at one of the companies involved in the process said Arconic had "full involvement" throughout the contract bidding process.

Omnis Exteriors, which cut the Arconic tiles to shape and supplied them to the cladding contractor, said it was not responsible for the choice of panel.

"CEP played no part in the selection of Reynobond PE and simply fulfilled the order as directed by the design and build team," the company said in a statement on Saturday, referring to CEP Architectural Facades Ltd, the Omnis unit which fulfilled the contract.

Harley Facades Ltd., the company which installed the panels, Rydon Group, the overall contractor on the 2014-2016 Grenfell refurbishment, and the local authority, the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, which owns the tower block all declined to comment.

Uh oh... that doesn't sound good. No one took responsibility or asked questions.... ?

I'm guessing from that though that if Arconic advised on the risk, then it is not their responsibility for what the panels were used for as they had passed on the relevant information.

That would lie with who they passed on that information with, who used the panels against the safety advice they received and decided to order them and fit them regardless.

Taxpayers will pay regardless.

Those culpable will be in the judicial system for years.

We will pay for this.

I've just had a discussion with DH re the greatest pm of the last 40 years. There's so many ways you can cut it. Had the banking crisis not happened it could well be Brown, and as someone who hated Brown for his part in that it's a massive acknowledgement. So many what ifs.

It's brought home though how bad fptp is. I know a lot of Tory voters round here. None of them actually like our mp. He votes against our interests. Yet, because they like the Tory policies they vote for him.

Fwiw, though the Euro has he,d out far longer than I ever thought it would, I still would not want us to be part of it. It's possible to be both pro eu and anti euro.

Sadly I think should we brexit then need to return we will lose sterling.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/24/should-we-give-up-on-politics-brexit-britain?CMP=twt_gu
Perhaps the clever thing to do is just give up on politics

To be honest I didn't get past the first paragraph if this article, which contains this sentence:

Our word “idiot” comes from the ancient Greek idiōtēs – a citizen who took no part in the civic life of classical Athens.

So now you all know what an idiot was and where the word comes from.

Hashi If the UK actually Brexits in 2019 and then later applies to rejoin the EU, it would be a new application, with all previous optouts - like the Euro one - wiped out.

It would be beneficial for ordinary people if the UK loses some optouts, such as the social chapter, working time directive etc, but not the Euro.
It would be very difficult - but not impossible - to obtain the Euro optout again.

However, the UK economy is unlikely to satisfy conditions to join the Euro - e.g. annual deficit too high - for many years.
So, in practice, joining the Euro could probably be postponed indefinitely:

only 5 of the 12 countries that have joined the EU since 2004 have gone on to join the euro.

I agree with peregrina that it was the poll tax that brought down MrsT - both the widespread fury this caused among those who had never paid rates and the alarm that other voters had because of the poll tax riots.

My memory of that time was that much of the country was in open rebellion and the Tory party panicked over its electoral prospects.
The rebels were a mixture of those who wanted the govt to be more pro / anti Europe, but much of it seemed driven by frustration that MrsT had been Tory leader since 1975 and those who didn't fit in with her wishes had no careers

Sorry posted my little rant too soon , there was supposed to be a question at the end :

Has anyone heard any MP say that they believed we should remain in the EU prior to the referendum and that regardless of the result still believe this ?

I haven't seen or heard anyone stick their neck out and say this yet .

David Lammy said it immediately after the result.

Ongoing thanks to you all for these valuable sanity-saving threads. Sky has this from Dominic Cummings (which I think we all knew but nice to have it confirmed) news.sky.com/story/eurosceptic-mps-particularly-unbalanced-says-former-vote-leave-campaigner-10926431

"The eurosceptic world is a very old world populated by very odd people. Gener­ally, not always but generally, the longer they have been involved in it, the higher the probability that they will be odd.

…Mr Cummings claims there was a great deal of jealousy in his camp about who would get to appear in the big TV debates; certain MPs didn't even want Mr Johnson joining the campaign and stealing the limelight.

… He believes the selec­tion processes and the incentive structures within parties mean that the wrong kind of people are attracted to becoming MPs, who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV."

(Sunday Times paywall) Tory Remainers plot to water down Brexit by working with Labour to force string of concessions

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/25/tory-remainers-plot-water-brexit-working-labour-force-string/

Tories who voted to stay in the European Union are planning to dilute Brexit by inflicting a series of damaging parliamentary defeats on their own Government.

The Sunday Telegraph has been told by influential Tory MPs that they plan to work with Labour backbenchers to force the Government into Brexit changes.

They plan to target Theresa May’s insistence that “no deal is better than a bad deal”
and make the Government prioritise protecting business than controlling immigration.

The MPs also want to force ministers to pursue “transition” periods for phasing in Brexit changes that would last up to seven years – twice the length currently being sought.

The revelation is the clearest evidence yet that
pro-EU Tory MPs are prepared to use their increased influence in Parliament after the election to water down Brexit.

“The numbers are there. … There is so much legislation that will have to go through, they will have to keep everyone solid,” said a former Tory minister.

The source added that Mrs May was no longer “master to her own ship” when it comes to Brexit and will have to listen to others beyond the party’s Eurosceptic.
.....
Cabinet ministers including Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, have used the result to push for a softer Brexit that focuses on protecting business than controlling EU migration.
.....
Leading figures in the group said
the plan is to use Opposition Day debates and backbench motions proposed by Labour to trigger votes on crucial Brexit topics.

It would force Tory whips to either demand MPs oppose the motions – something not normally done for backbench debates – or face damaging defeats.
.....
Mrs May only agreed to publish a detailed White Paper on her Brexit plan and give assurances on the status of EU citizens after parliamentary pressure from her backbenchers.

Now Tory MPs will attempt to stop her proposing “no deal” as a viable Brexit option and deprioritise controlling immigration.
“We don’t want the immigration tail wagging the Brexit dog,” said one influential MP.

Informal lines of communication are understood to have been opened up with a new soft Brexit group of Labour politicians which launched this week.

Fifty Labour MPs, MEPs and peers signed a promise to “fighting unambiguously for membership of the single market” – in apparent contradiction with the party’s election manifesto.

Tory MPs said they would let the group of MPs propose the backbench debates and then row in behind the demands when they were forced to a vote.

The number of Tory rebels willing to act is unclear, though leading figures among the group said that up to 30 backbenches are prepared to vote to soften Brexit.
< if they don't chicken out, they can win, because at most 10 Labour & LDem Brexiters prepares to vote with the Tories and no SNP would >

Some are working with similarly minded Government ministers.
“There are a lot of conversations with ministers,” said one Tory backbencher.

“You have to rely on people in the Cabinet knowing there is good support for the stance they taken.”

They all believe Mrs May’s authority to face down her critics has been diminished after the election flop
and intend to exploit it over the coming months.

V interesting from Cummings, MrsQ
Does confirm it's not just Remainer prejudice, thinking that most Brexit Ultra MPs seem batshit - and nasty

David Lammy and Ken Clarke have remained resolutely against Brexit. Nick Clegg before he lost, obviously. Anna Soubry spoke out after the election but has now accepted the vote, though that may be expediency given she had a leave constituency. London MPs may be bolder now.

The possibility of another election will stop many Remain MPs speaking out. Expect Lab to continue to equivocate too.

woman Thanks for the link to "crappies" - a piece of Irish history I had missed.
Dreadful "pitchcapping" torture that the then British govt designed especially for them

croppies even !

Just one further point about Major... one of the main factors in his downfall was the state of the NHS.

Perhaps why he has spoken on the NHS recently. He knows how important it is to voters.

I appreciate that quite a lot of MP's voted against a50 , I just don't seem to be hearing a continuation of that in public anymore . Perhaps it is me , perhaps it just isn't being reported in the sources I occasionally read , perhaps I need to stop asking silly questions and utilise google a bit more

The Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it easier for Tories to rebel without the fear of bringing down their govt:
he strict conditions for a No Confidence vote mean they can defeat it, so long as the DUP continues support.

Also, Labour, even Corbyn & friends, might be quite happy to let the govt continue if it keeps getting continual defeats, because it increases their chances of winning the post-Brexit GE vs a Tory party

• previous minority govts that have hung on desperately for years have been punished by the electorate

Most MPs realise Brexit is such a poisoned chalice that it is best not to be in govt until Brexit has actually happened - or been cancelled.

Any govt would be likely to collapse in chaos soon after Brexit, especially in S England becomes a lorry park, or the Irish border hammers trade there and the DUP abandon them
The Opposition would then probably win a landslide and stay in power for many years

Speaking out is far more individual and public than joining in a backbench rebellion.

What brought Thatcher down...poll tax and the summer of discontent
What brought major down..the nhs. I waited 18 months for an "emergency" op in 94. We seem to be going that way again and I predict civil unrest come July...