Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

Somerville, don't be silly! I was just joking. I really don't understand how the issue is not being discussed. No peripheral vision, in more ways than one.

Good luck with No. 4. along with 1, 2, 3 .

Sos, your experiences sound so sad to have to live through. It is even upsetting to think of a child being treated like that. Indeed, an adult either. You must be very strong to have come through. I had to laugh when Woman thought Bonnie and Clyde was a reference to a puddy and a puppy. I have two kitties and 'a coalition of chaos' would be the perfect description.

The sheer pointlessnees of all this agree with Green there.

When there's a lady from Grenfell sleeping 5 to a room in 2 single beds with a baby and toddler in her bed.

When every tested high rise has been found not fire safe.

When yet another black youth has died in police custody in a London police station.

I could go on.

It is such a complete and criminal waste of time.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2965325-Westminstenders-The-3-Million-get-their-first-offer?watched=1
New Thread

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
Sir Ed Davey rules himself out of the LD leadership contest. That leaves just one runner - Vince Cable

Not my assertion, howabout Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/parentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2015

"27.5% of live births in England and Wales in 2015 were to women born outside the UK"
< That doesn't include births to 2nd or 3rd generation immigrants >

"The estimated total fertility rate (TFR) for UK born women remained unchanged, with 1.76 children per woman in 2015;
for non-UK born women the estimated TFR decreased to 2.08 compared with 2.10 in 2014.
Poland was the most common country of birth for mothers born outside the UK, followed by Pakistan and India.
Pakistan was the most common country of birth for fathers born outside the UK, followed by Poland and India."

“The rising percentage of births to women born outside the UK is largely due to foreign born women making up an increasing share of the female population of childbearing age in England and Wales.
Part of the reason for this is that migrants are more likely to be working-age adults rather than children or older people.
Alongside their increasing share of the population, higher fertility among women born outside the UK has also had an impact.”

"In 2015, the region with the highest percentage of live births to women born outside the UK was London (58.0%);
the North East had the lowest (11.0%).
....
Newham has been the local authority with the highest percentage of births to non-UK born women since 2004. In 2015, over three-quarters of births (76.5%) were to non-UK born women.
......
Outside of London, Slough had the highest percentage (62.0%), followed by Luton (56.4%)."

So, I think immigration has played a big role in reducing the demographic timebomb in the Uk.
If you think today's pensioners are costing a lot ....

Red peppers, the citizenship thing in NI means you can be wholly Irish as far as your papers go and still for the purposes of GEs and all other elections as well as referenda vote. You don't need to have dual citizenship. This element of the GFA was included to recognise the validity of a completely Irish identity in NI. It is a very significant element in bringing relative peace to NI.

As an Irish citizen living in the US, I am happy to carry my green card. (I am happy to have my state issued driver's license with me at all times and it strikes me that this is a practical solution to the issue of being able to identify yourself for purposes of opening a bank account, proving your age when buying plonk, etc.) But if I were Irish in NI, being required to carry ID that marked me as 'foreign' would have me spitting nails.

In my view, as one of these eu citizens, it's pretty normal. no one seem to have been offended by no eu immigrants to have one.

Not quite the same thing though as they don't actually have to have one. In practice most of them do, and will find it easier, but it isn't compulsory. The BRP card comes along with most applications now, but that's only happened in the last few years. Anyone whose Indefinite Leave to Remain is more than I think about 6 years old wouldn't have automatically got one.

So this is something a bit different.

RedPeppers, a child born in the UK to someone who has permanent residence or indefinite leave at that time will be British at birth. A child born inside the UK to a parent who later gets PR/ILR can register as British, for nigh on 1k though! No reason why that couldn't continue for children of EU nationals who get permanent residence in this way.

If the only change to rights is losing the vote in local elections (and EU elections for UK expats like me) plus getting some sort of residence card , I'd be delighted.

I'm sure most UK and E27 expats would be too, providing:

• the application form requires just basic information about the citizen, not some trivia quiz show
• It can be done locally e.g. at local council office, as in Germany - no traveling hundreds of miles
• It is cheap, at least should costs no more than a passport,
• no language test or requirement (or e.g. the pensioners in Spain are screwed)

The important issues to retain are;

• unlimited right to remain, including spouse and kids. That means the right to work or study abroad and return to the UK.
• retaining same pension terms & conditions as natives
• same healthcare t&c
• same welfare & benefit entitlement after say 3 years self-supporting.

I appreciate that for historical reasons that Irish citizens, whether in NI or RoI, might be the exception and be very much angered

I'm happy to carry an ID card. Hopefully it will confirm that I am paying my tax, entitled to drive, and have my blood type inscribed on it as well.

With all the malarkey round gender identity, I can't wait for the first ECJ cases on ethnic/nationality identification. There are various ones I choose to identify as, none of them british, certainly not english, at the moment.

Bigchoc even the UK born rate of 1.76 is much higher than most of rEU. Also the comparative UK born rate for 2011 was 1.9.

howabout The fact that 27.5% of births are to mothers born outside the UK means that without them, the UK birth rate would be that % lower.

It is ridiculous to claim that 27.5 % of births are not a significant %
plus an unknown % to British born 2nd and 3rd generation

German politicians saw the Uk trend some years ago - it was discussed in Germany - and are trying to emulate that aspect of the UK.
One of the few times when they've decided the UK is worth copying.

Their demographics are indeed much worse than ours, projected to fall to 55 million from 80 million pop by iirc 2050.

Is that why Germany started the Gast Arbeiter programme in the 1980s?

“It is typical of this government to kickstart their misguided and intrusive ID scheme with students and foreigners – those who have no choice but to accept the cards – and it marks the start of the introduction of compulsory ID cards for all by stealth.”

David Davis 2008

Bigchoc the 25% is a very recent % for the last year and in terms of shape of the population all of the new children have parents and so just to be self sustaining the rate would need to be 2.1 for foreign born, which it only just is.

The main point that Germany has had trf of 1.4ish for the past 40 years while the UK's has been closer to 2 still stands.

"With all the malarkey round gender identity, I can't wait for the first ECJ cases on ethnic/nationality identification."

Interesting.

I'm reminded that along with the Battles for Steel, Coal, and Grain, Mussolini also had a "Battle for Births" ....

Howabout Tories, even most Brexiters like DD, are saying that the number of EU immigrants annually probably won't change much, at least those in employment, because business and agriculture needs them.
All those doctors, nurses and HCPs, all those workers in farming, care services, nurseries etc- can't be replaced by native Brits.

So the Tories want the EU workers, but want them to have fewer rights.
So they are easier for employers and the state to exploit
I don't understand why you think that is helpful for the country, for lowpaid / young British born workers, or society as whole

I expect that at least those who are professionally qualified, highly skilled, will go elsewhere if family commitments allow.
Those who stay or continue to come, will have a higher % of low/ unskllled.

wrt statistics:
27 % of births where the mother is foreign born, plus the % of births from those descendants of immigration since 1949 - we're into the 3rd generation there, but they are of course British born mothers
Even 27% is a significant % of current birth rate, helping the future ratio of workers to elderly.

Yes, if the Tories manage to discourage immigrants, by crashing the conomy or whatever, that % will probably fall and age demographics will worsen.

And yes, the UK native birth rate is higher than that of the Germans, but still not replacement rate

Bigchoc there is not an endless supply of cheap EU labour (DD is talking short not long term). If you are correct about the relative economic prospects of UK vs EU this is even more the case. Poland, Italy and Romania have worse birth rates and demographics than Germany, exacerbated by net emigration. The EU immigration model of running the UK economy doesn't work long term, Brexit or not.