Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

Re UKIP there is a credible argument that part of the reason is Trump.

Almost every European election since last autumn has result in the far right underperforming. Support for the National Front in France was well below recent peaks in the presidential election, and collapsed at the legislative elections. The rerun of the Austrian presidential election saw a clear far right defeat. Wilders underperformed in the Netherlands. UKIP support collapsed at the May GE. AfD is looking set for a poor performance in Germany this autumn (while Merkel is riding high).

No doubt there are local factors in play in many of these cases - for eg, the rightward move of the Tories in the UK, Le Pen's spectacular implosion in the late stages of the French presidential race. But as a trend it is becoming more and more compelling.

Red peppers I meant my dear that all the worrying won't help matters but I hope all will be well for you.

howabout The reason the UK doesn't have the same demographic problem has been documented as being because of the high immigrant birth rate, not just the current generation, but those who arrived before 1980.
That increase is due to culture, plus the fact that 1st generation immigrants tend to be young, of an age to be more likely to have kids

In fact, this is one of the reasons those who are racist / nationalist are angry about immigrants, they keep talking about the native population being "replaced"
the statistics i've read quoted 25% of UK births are to mothers not born in the UK, up to 90% in some local areas.

So, it's not the "native" Brits having more kids than their European neighbors

They aren't all pensioners either! I live in Spain, inland, in a city and know a lot of other Brits and NOT SINGLE ONE is a pensioner. They are all working age and mostly with Spanish born children.

A lot are pensioners in Spain (if you're in Barça or Madrid you won't have a representative sample of Brit friends) but otherwise it is true to say that Brits abroad are a varied bunch.

Round here (SW France) the wealthy Brits are mostly Airbus people. Many working age Brits living in rural France are poor - most seem to require top-ups from the benefit system to get by. On the forum I help run for English speaking families in France the single most common topic is family benefits.

smile She will.
She has two dcs born in France and therefore french.
Her DH is from an eu country. They wont separate families in France. Both of those will be enough for them to stay in France.

I would advise them to learn french though. At least out of respect for the country they are living in.

However they might not be able to ever go back to the uk....

Big yes same stats on my side.
Which points out to the fact that white British people are starting to feel pushed aside (like white people in the US).
And also explains the reactions of my parents (see above)

The problem is... you just can't stop that.

She has two dcs born in France and therefore french.

Not until they are 13 (unless they have another claim to citizenship). But I agree that smile's relative has nothing to worry about as she qualifies for FoM by virtue of her EU partner. Once the kids are 13 they can claim French nationality (via a simple court procedure) and at that point the non-EU parent can claim a residence permit on the basis of raising a French child. But with 5 years "on the clock" already + Macron in power I wouldn't be concerned personally, she is in the very low risk group especially if she has worked in France.

Misti I'm down in the south, near the costa del sol but inland in a city. There is a huge huge variety of Brits abroad, as you say, and many many many of them are working age. There are lots of pensioners in Spain, but a lot of them aren't rich either.

RedPeppers, it is not dependent on contact with the ROI and is independent of Ireland's provision of Irish passports to people from the island of Ireland. It is contained in the Good Friday Agreement and pertains to the people of NI. One does not have to be a British citizen at all.

Under the GFA, you can be an either an Irish citizen, a British citizen or both (dual nationality).

Nationality and citizenship

Northern Ireland is part of the UK. However, under the Belfast Agreement(external link opens in a new window / tab), also known as the Good Friday Agreement, people born in Northern Ireland can choose to be British citizens, Irish citizens or both. If they choose to be both British and Irish citizens, this means they have a dual citizenship

www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/about-northern-ireland

So there are native, non-British people being born in part of the UK every day. Does the British gov't treat an Irish person from NI differently an Irish person from Ireland? How do you distinguish between the two? Will people from NI have to carry an id card in order to do so? Is that contrary to the GFA? There are lots of questions really. Of course, things related to Brexit are not as complicated as you think, according to DD. Yet, DD has no answers to anything.

Whatever the Labour manifesto said, many RemaIners voted Labour because they were seen as clearly less fanatical about Brexit than the Tories.
Just as many voted Tory because they saw the Tories as the party who would actually carry out Brexit, not go back on it.

UKIP imploded for many reasons, imo not just because the public assumed one or both parties would carry out Brexit:

• The revulsion against the appeals to racism made by Farage & other Kippers during the referendum, e.g. the infamous Farage refugee poster.
  The far right loved the racist dog whistles, but they are a small minority: most Leavers are not comfortable with such open and nasty racism
  The center and left united to show the public what a nasty fascist bunch UKIP leaders and officials

• The standing of the most prominent Leave campaigners plummeted after the referendum.
  There was a huge rise in negative ratings for Farage & UKIP, as well as Bojo, Gove & co.
  Their unpopularity spread to UKIP voters

• The absurd UKIP leadership changes and the infighting - physical fighting among MEPs - including failing to get leadership nominations in time etc

• The gross incompetence of elected UKIP councillors, once the voters had a few years to see how they performed in office

• The sleaze and criminal charges against several UKIP MEPs and councillors

• The 2 parties have indeed changed their emphasis, but not just on Brexit:

RedKIP: Labour under JC is a genuinely socialist alternative, and to the nonpolitcal voter angry at austerity, the protest vote
UKIP had some policies that were more leftwing then NuLab, more spending on the nhs, more nationalization some voters who were fed up with austerity.

BlueKIP: The Tories now pander to the hard right, those who want to roll back the welfare state and cut benefits even more.
Those who want Empire 2.0 and talk of "picaninnies"

I appreciate that people in NI can identify as Irish rather than British.
However, their citizenship is still British isn't it?

No, they are entitled to both citizenships and chose which to take or indeed can hold both.

smile if she's been in France 5 years she will qualify for permanent residence. I don't think she needs to worry tbh. She will need French at level A2 (good beginner standard) for a permanent residence permit - this is not a very high hurdle tbh. She should take some French lessons if she can. Pôle emploi (job centre) or other public bodies often organise free lessons for immigrants.

Cailleach thanks for the explanation. I didn't know that some people in NI could also have the Irish citizenship.

I'm wondering how it works re elections. Does it mean they can't vote for the GE? I assume they can for the devoluted assemblies?

Sorry, I'm showing how much I really haven't a clue there.

I do wonder if Mrs May is aware that people born in NI can choose which citizenship to have.

Commonwealth citizens can vote in GE

But on a facebook thread that I am on, there was discussion about May's proposals and whether EU/Commonwealth citizens of Ireland, Malta and Cyprus would lose the right to vote. Some thought yes, whereas I suspect myself that this is a detail which has been overlooked. As it stood, one person reported that their polling station had a notice up saying that EU citizens could not vote in the GE, and this person pointed out that for the three countries involved this was incorrect. He further wondered how many had been turned away based on this erroneous information.

I have been informed by friends working in Spain that the number of pensioners at least is HUGELY underestimated, because many pensioners never registered as resident in Spain.

They are actually registered in the UK, or not registered with any address, to avoid council tax
They flitter back and forth visiting family in the UK, using the nhs at need
They tend to be on lowish fixed pensions, hence in Spain for the low cost of living

They seem to be living under the radar in both countries
The consequences are hence their own fault in that particular case.
However, it does mean that there could be one hell of a lot more pensioners than expected returning to the UK who will need accommodation.

In fact this could be the case in many E27 countries, because there is an assumption of honesty
I've had several jobs in Germany since 1987
I've never had to show my permission to stay when opening a bank account, or toin any agreement to rent or buy in Germany. Or to show that I am registered for German tax.
I only ever have to show my passport, even yesterday opening brokerage account at a bank - my status was never questioned.

It would be quite easy to stay under the radar, if one flits back to the UK for the NHS.

The schadenfreude (spelling eek) side of me would quite like to see the IDcard go ahead just to see my very settled here, not racist but don't like those muslims or black people, Irish family members seethe at what they wrought on themselves.

Though it'll screw up the others who didnt want this so I don't really want it to happen.

peregrina That's outrageous for a polling station to get it wrong and disenfranchise Commonwealth EU citizens
It show what a dreadful muddle UK immigration policy is

RedPeppers - I appreciate that people in NI can identify as Irish rather than British. However their citizenship is still British isn't it?

Good question, and, emphatically, no. People born in the north of Ireland who are Irish are not also British citizens. This is from the governmental website:

"Under the termss of the Belfast Agreement, also known as the Good Friday Agreement, people born in Northern Ireland can choose to be British citizens, Irish citizens or both. If they choose to be both British and Irish citizens, this means they have a dual citizenship."

And under the 1949 Ireland Act (which confirmed partition and lead to the resurgence of the IRA):

"Declared that, even though the Republic of Ireland was no longer a British dominion, it would not be treated as a foreign country for the purposes of British law."

So Irish people, including since 1998 if they were born in the north, are not British citizens but are also not foreign and can vote in all UK elections. Although we can apply for British citizenship, in reality few do because there is no advantage. Also, our children can be British citizens from the point of their birth if we are living in the UK, without us being British citizens, I believe.

The interplay of the 1949 act, EU law and the GFA (and especially the latter two) are complex and intertwined. So I don't know if people like me will be able to retain all U.K. rights but not be a citizen. If they revoke that then I'll protest peacefully about it. Some will protest with rather more direct means, unfortunately.