Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

I agree the education and skills strategy over the last 20 years is a scandal. Is this our equivalent of Japan's list generation?

I can't really answer your question about leaving the country, Red, except to say DH and I are purposefully living overseas at the moment to ride out the worst of the Brexit storm (even though our rights where we are living are less than citizens here, and have been changed for the worse even in the comparatively short time we have been here)

My 3 best friends if 40 years are afro-caribean, French Canadian and punjabi. Excuse spelling and mistakes morphine powerful stuff. But am home from hospital and will see Boris the Animal (puppy) tomorrow. Peace really now and love.

Olenna Transitional arrangements just mean that some EU expats will have time to accumulate the 5 years residence to apply for permanent status
Currently, all EU citizens have pemanent status already.
And the new "permanent" isn't permanent as we know it.

Some rights May wishes to remove from EU citizens that they currently have:

Unlimited right to remain in the UK. Without filling in application forms.
The right to return after say a couple of years working abroad
The right to bring in a non-UK spouse
ECJ to protect those rights

I've probably overlooked some rights she wants to cut

Brits have always had a case of tall poppy syndrome....

Bigchoc that us rather unfair. Am I worth less than others then? That I should not have the same rights?

Some of those rights are qualified rights, though, BigChoc, and as I've said upthread i don't think that we have ever properly enforced the rules. Hence cases of SAHM not realising that they needed to have health insurance and Big Issue sellers claiming to be self-sufficient. Freedom of Movement has never been as simple as anyone can live anywhere in the EU, even though the intention has been that the system should be as close to this as possible

It's true non-EU citizens don't have these rights that we wish EU expats to retain.
Bluntly, they don't have these right because their govts were not sufficiently powerful to pressure the UK effectively.
As we see with India and other countries, that may change.

However, my point of view remains:

it doesn't help people in a crappy situation to force more people into the same crappy situation

Women didn't have the vote for years after men did.
Should women have demanded that the vote be taken away from men ?
No, they demanded their own vote.

It's shit if you have fewer rights, sos but your chances of getting more rights won't improve if you reduce other people's

Olenna The EU is not demanding that the UK give more than treaty rights.
It's fine if the UK finally enforces requirements it's ignored to date, e.g. being self-supporting for a certain period.
What May wants to do, that I've listed is indeed removing rights that are mandated by current rules.

Also, wrt the nhs, the EU has a court case against the UK to force them to apply the rules - which it has either won, or will do so, because no legal defense -
which are that EU expats must be treated wrt health insurance, pensions etc just like the natives.
So EU expats are entitled to nhs care.

The complication is that the UK is the only country with a completely non-contributory health system
However, the treaties don't distinguish between types of systems, just state that EU expats must be treated the same

Did anyone watch 'Brexit: What's Next?' It was the biggest lot of non analytical 'how do you feel now?' tosh. Even now, there is no real analysis.

Alarm bells went up when Katya Adler appeared. She was at St. Pancras Station, so I began to panic for her. Hoping there was a buddy system, if she became disorientated. Kamal Ahmed had his mummy on. No Michael Dougan or similar. Just a few talking heads and how they were feeling, how it was worth the pain and the UK would come back on top. They went to Brussels to talk to .... Nigel Farage. There was one Commissioner, but otherwise just another MEP and talking shop.

Katya was asking how the EU feel about Britain leaving. That there was spluttering when the Brits started going on about having cake and eating it. She also said that Barnier lost his cool at the press conference with DD. No, he didn't. He just said it very firmly for numbskulls when people started going on about concessions. Brexit means Brexit, after all. She started saying what 'insiders' were saying. Great to have real identified sources. It was just lazy.

Mind you, I knew it was bull when they showed a map of Europe and then made a cut to separate the UK and Ireland from continental Europe to show Brexit. Are they going to hold Ireland hostage or something? Do Katya and Kamal realise Ireland is a separate country, one of the EU27, and is not leaving the EU? Yet it was also shorn from the EU, along with the UK on their graphic.

They would have been better off doing the programme about what people in the UK feel about Brexit and what they want from it. After all they are the ones leaving. She could have interviewed the UKIP MEP's at home. They might even have interviewed one of the other 50 non-UKIP MEP's. Who would have thought they are more numerous than UKIP? Hardly a word broadcast. Except Dan Hannan. And he may as well be UKIP.

There is no way that the EU is going to agree to May's proposal. I think the deal breakers will be the issue of family rights, which combined with the potential to lose settled status is rather poisonous (leading to a position in which an EU citizen with a British family might be unable to return to the UK after a posting abroad) - as well as the issue of which body adjudicates the agreement.

What's been overlooked in all of this - except by a Labour MP who raised this in the HoC yesterday - is what this means for Britons abroad, and in particular which institution(s) oversee the agreement(s) for Britons in the EU. May's proposal seems to imply that this would be national courts.

The EU proposal is not just more favourable to EU citizens in the U.K. - it isn't also greatly preferable for Britons living in the EU. I very much hope that the EU does not back down on this.

Both parties reiterate their admiration for the courage and sacrifice of the police and armed forces in upholding democracy and the rule of law and will never forget the debt of gratitude that we owe them.

Meanwhile in Belfast...
www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-40379903
'Gary Haggarty: Ex-senior loyalist pleads guilty to 200 terror charges'

The investigation into Haggarty's activities has lasted more than seven years.

It's one of the largest ever conducted by the police service in Northern Ireland.

He's been living at a secret address in England since offering to give evidence against former UVF colleagues he claims were also involved in his crimes.

As a former UVF commander for north Belfast and south east Antrim, he's the most senior loyalist ever to become a supergrass.

Haggarty was interviewed more than 1,100 times at secret locations in England and Wales after offering to become what is now officially called "an assisting offender".

He has also offered to give evidence against a number of former police officers he's accused of collusion while he was working as an informer from 1993 to 2004.

The BBC understands he told his interviewers that some of his Special Branch handlers not only protected him from arrest and prosecution, but also actively encouraged his activities.

Those allegations are the subject of a separate, parallel investigation by the Police Ombudsman.

The public prosecution service is to decide whether to prosecute two retired Special Branch officers based on files sent by the Police Ombudsman.

Bye bye GFA.

Two programmes on Brexit last night both light on detail and analysis. No wonder leavers still think Brexit will be a success. One contributer basically said she didn't mind a short term recession.

The only hope for justice in NI is that the DUP have vastly overplayed their hand and NI will henceforth be under the scrutiny it well deserves, leading to exposure of the DUP, which is - on top of everything else unsavoury about it - the party that prefers to conduct politics under a rock.

These people that don't mind another short term recession obviously weren't affected by the last one As a family, we are very much still recovering from the last one, particularly from the impact of jobs in mine and DHs fields, and the drop in house prices. Toxic combination if redundancy means you need to move.
Really scared about long term unemployment if we enter another recession tbh.

I would also dispute the claim that we're full.

More land in the UK is given over to golf courses than housing.

The only reason it feels full to some people is lack of funding for schools, the NHS and infrastructure.

Immigrants have been used as a scapegoat again.

There is no way that the EU is going to agree to May's proposal
Is this a deliberate calculation, with talks collapsing in a few weeks?

Austerity is why people fall foenthe rhetoric of "we're full" sos
We aren't
And the Tories "found" £1 billion yesterday for a deal with the dup
That could be spent on the nhs and education

On the 'we're full' thing.

65m of the world are refugees. Many of us migrate for economic and cultural reasons. This is a transient world. With internet, this transience and internationality is a reality for work and play for many of the world already. The only way to deal with it is through compassion and intelligence.

Tories and the far right are monetising state hood, like they monetise human rights.

Mother of four dragons I really feel for you and I do not agree with what May is doing. But, you did have a choice at the end of the day, to move or not to move. I do understand where you are coming from. And it is sad to be in a detrimental position now. and wish you the best.

Apologies, football, but

Jim Pickard‏ @PickardJE 20h20 hours ago
Pogba, £89m
Bale, £85m
Ronaldo, £80m

Nigel Dodds, £100m
Ian Paisley Jr, £100m
Jeffrey Donaldson, £100m

mother my only regret is that I didn't continue the travelling and working 'abroad' that I did in my teens and twenties. As misti said, the EU will reject this, and we will be on to the next stage. Well done to you and yours for taking the brave step to move, I bet your DCs have gained so much, in all sorts of ways from doing it.

Anyone who chooses to come here to make their lives and any Brit who goes to EU to make their lives do so out of choice, their choice. No one should take it for granted in either circumstance that things won't change.

So where do you draw the line sos? What do you allow yourself to do in life bearing in mind anything can change at any point? Jobs can be lost, interest rates can go sky high, health can deteriorate.When I first went to live in Italy over 20 years ago to work and met dh I didn't sit down and go through a ticklist including working through the probability that in 2 decades time my country would reach the pinnacle of let's blame the eu for everything in life and would decide to throw everything up in the air without giving another thought to people like me, my Italian dh who lived in and contributed to the U.K. for years and my Italian born ds.

I have had my fill over the last year of being made to feel as if I am somewhat responsible for the insecure situation I am in now, or that I don't really count as I chose to move to "sunnier climes" as mentioned upthread, or that I shouldn't have a voice as I live abroad, or that if I didn't already live abroad I should go and do so if I didn't like what the Will of the People was saying. I made my choices in good faith, to the letter of the law and based on who I happened to fall in love with.

I will never understand the attitude of people who either seem to see the consequences for those like me as some kind of karma. The majority of us who live in the EU I would bet aren't super privilledged types reclining by the pool enjoying out expat lifestyles. But they soon will be as Brexit will close the door to people from underprivileged backgrounds with no money like myself who still had the opportunity to make the choice I made.

I am also a socialist sos and that opportunity being closed to people like me really pisses me off! As does the lack of empathy towards those caught up in this idiocy.

One of my best friends is an Italian national. She has 4 UK born kids. She is not married to their father but has been here over 20 years in good faith as EU national

How can anyone think she had a crystal ball that this would happen and it was her choice to move therefore suck it up? People have made their homes and lives in countries they thought they could stay or the rest of their lives.

Saying no one should take it for granted is a bit rum. If the government removes more of our rights should we just shrug and say no one should take anything for granted? That's not socialist. It's a nihilist perspective.