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Brexit

Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2017 15:06

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit
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TheDogAteMyGoatskinVellum · 26/06/2017 13:45

The thing is patty, NI is unique in the UK. There is nowhere whatsoever that even comes close to experiencing what they have. Not even close, even the most deprived areas of the rest of the UK. The impact that had on their society, their economy, their everything, has to be experienced to be believed. They are much, much more than post-industrial- they still have pretty active and parasitic paramilitaries, for example! There is no comparison.

And unlike a lot of other post-industrial areas that stand to get rinsed when the UK leaves the EU, NI had the sense to go Remain, heavily. So unlike eg the old derelict industrial areas of Yorkshire, Lancashire and the Midlands, they're not even going to be getting what they voted for. They were the turkeys who at least attempted to swerve Christmas. Thus, them getting a few quid in advance of being roundly fucked by something they didn't vote for (not that I expect this to hold, mind) at least has the advantage of compensation for what's going to be done to them if we leave the EU.

And the fact that the UK govt is supposed to be neutral in negotiating with all sides to the GFA/Belfast agreement - not in the pocket of one of the key players.

Yes. That is absolutely the problem. The impact on negotations to restore power sharing should be the basis of criticism here, not what people in other poor, not post-conflict areas of the UK might think.

TheDogAteMyGoatskinVellum · 26/06/2017 13:53

Except the pie is only so big, so what NI is getting is coming from somewhere else in the UK.

Indeed. And some of us think that's fine, because of what NI currently deals with and is going to have inflicted on it thanks to the referendum vote. So there's no except about it: NI deserves more because it is and will be more fucked.

LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 13:55

If I were Welsh, Scots, or Irish of any stripe, I would be asking myself what is the Union doing for me right now ?

It's hard to come up with an answer which doesn't include the words "fuck", and "all".

Peregrina · 26/06/2017 13:56

So there's no except about it: NI deserves more because it is and will be more fucked.

Except I doubt whether May has done it for those reasons - she has done it wholly for expediency. If the Tories get more seats in Parliament in by elections, or win another GE with a majority, the DUP and N Ireland will be thrown under the bus again.

GlassOfPort · 26/06/2017 14:08

Do we know if the money is going to be paid in instalments?

If the Government collapses in three months because enough Tory MPs rebel/defect/die, does the DUP still get the 1bn?

howabout · 26/06/2017 14:10

LH I think you are looking at the DUP deal backwards.

Scotland is constantly being told it gets too much under Barnet. This deal thoroughly undermines that argument. From a Scottish pov there is now lots and lots of lobbying potential for more money to deal with Brexit, to capitalise on post Brexit fishing, to support rebalancing of the economy away from oil, for further City deals. All of that potential would disappear with Independence. mother what you will now see over the next few weeks, I hope, is maximum whinging from all sides in Holyrood to extract our share.

From a West of Scotland pov instability in Northern Ireland always has the potential to spill over the water and anything which prevents that is a good thing.

I think Labour has to think carefully about how it manages to shout for Wales though.

TheDogAteMyGoatskinVellum · 26/06/2017 14:10

Oh, there's no question that May has done it for expediency rather than the reasons I mentioned. None whatsoever. Doing something about a region she clearly doesn't give a fuck about is simply a byproduct of the position she finds herself in. Indeed, her Brexit means Brexit posturing and stupidity over the past year could well have fucked NI over more than it needed to be, from the vote. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to find she hadn't even read the GFA before the other week.

I just reserve the right to be pleased that if this somehow holds for more than a few months, NI might get a bit of compensation for what's being done to it.

LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 14:12

I wonder if this is the magic bullet TM hopes it is (and yes, that is a deliberately bad taste phrase) ?

Already the backlash has started (on these very forums) and it's not good.

Every Tory MP has now been condemned to explaining to their constituents why there's £1billion for the DUP, and fuck all for their closing hospital/school/surgery/community centre.

I wonder what £1 billion pounds would even look like all stacked up in brown bags ?

LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 14:14

I wonder what £1 billion pounds would even look like ?

to answer my own question, it seems someone has helpfully worked out what £1,000,000 would look like in £20 notes. (Notice the helpful side of a bus for comparison).

So, if you read this article, and multiply by a thousand you get the idea ....

LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 14:17

If the Government collapses in three months because enough Tory MPs rebel/defect/die, does the DUP still get the 1bn?

If I were the DUP, the money would have to already be in the bank/under the mattress before pen touched paper. They're hardly the trusting type. Especially when you consider what "Tories" means in Gaelic.

TheDogAteMyGoatskinVellum · 26/06/2017 14:18

Every Tory MP has now been condemned to explaining to their constituents why there's £1billion for the DUP, and fuck all for their closing hospital/school/surgery/community centre.

Another positive!

Although really, I have huge sympathy for the people in Tory constituencies who didn't vote for them, but anyone who voted for a party of austerity is only getting what they chose. If they just wanted other people to bear the burden instead, well, it's hard to sympathise.

TheDogAteMyGoatskinVellum · 26/06/2017 14:19

Erm I'm not sure the DUP would sully themselves with thinking about the Irish language LH!

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 26/06/2017 14:19

Robert Peston
Facebook Mentions
·
The Tories' pact with the DUP looks very much like a deal to prop up this minority government for the two years which in theory are necessary to deliver Brexit.
Because of the £1bn government sweetener promised to Northern Ireland, the big money for investment in health and infrastructure there is all deliverable over two years.
And although the so-called "confidence and supply" arrangement is for the lifetime of the parliament, its details are renewed at the time of every Queen's Speech legislative programme - and the current one lasts (as you will recall) also a Brexitly (sic) synchronous two years.
What's more the DUP is promising not just to support the government on the Queen's speech, budget and those "confidence" votes that could bring it down, but also on all Brexit-related legislation.
So for two years at least the government should be a bit more stable, if not exactly strong, as a result of the alliance with the DUP.
But that does not mean T May will survive as Tory leader or PM for that period, or that the DUP would hope and expect her to do so.
Because what is very striking is that she has not signed the agreement with the DUP. It's been signed by her chief whip Gavin Williamson.
Which implies that the pact could survive her resignation or eviction.
Or to put it another way, the DUP does nothing to undermine the widespread notion among Tory MPs that she could quit in about a year, or possibly even this autumn, and that there would be a general election in the spring/summer/autumn of 2019, following the UK's formal departure from the EU.
That highly plausible timetable for attempted Tory renewal and the next election is completely consistent with the DUP deal.
PS All the above is predicated on Dublin and Sinn Fein being persuaded that the DUP pact does not breach the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement, namely that the UK government remains an impartial guarantor of that agreement.
If their trust in the good faith of Theresa May were to be seriously impaired, the consequential mess would be yet another crisis for her - and one she would probably not survive.
PPS DUP sources tell me I have undervalued the wonga they have prised from the Treasury.
They say that a relaxation of constraints on access to an existing £500m pot for education investment, under the 2014 Stormont House Agreement, should be factored in by me.
And also that the promise that NI will get some additional Enterprise Zones will be highly valuable.
So in total the package of support they've won is certainly more than £1.5bn - and possibly as much as the rumored £2bn they were demanding.
And, by the way, they will have the ability to shape and influence the government's policy-making and direction via membership of a "coordination" committee, which will be chaired by a minister (probably the chief whip Gavin Williamson or the First Minister Damian Green).
Which will worry liberal Tories which dislike the DUP's opposition to gay marriage, inter alia, and fiscally conservative Tories, who mistrust the DUP's opposition to austerity.
"Dogs", "tails" and "wagging" all come to mind.
PPPS (if there is such a thing) Damian Green has confirmed to me that the DUP pact would continue, even if Theresa May stood down as PM - because it is an agreement between the parties, signed by the two chief whips, and not between the parties' leaders.

FinallyThroughTheRoof · 26/06/2017 14:19

This deal is the most outrageous thing i have ever heard of politically.

And not just because i am scottish.

LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 14:27

That highly plausible timetable for attempted Tory renewal and the next election is completely consistent with the DUP deal.

The timetable can only be plausible if the underlying possibility is plausible.

I can't see this deal doing anything but hammer the Tories in the rUK for years to come, no matter how many of their media mates they call on. (Bearing in mind the growing ineffectiveness of print).

Already social media has exploded with criticism.

histinyhandsarefrozen · 26/06/2017 14:34

So they found the magic money tree, decided to pour it into N Ireland, are protecting pensioners yet again, and are pushing through with Brexit that no one under 60 seems to want anymore?

Weird move.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2017 14:46

May talking about EU rights now.

May thought this could be done in a day...

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DividedKingdom · 26/06/2017 14:46

Theresa May is one of the very, very few people I have every directed the words "evil" and "hate" towards. How sad. She gives no shits about this country uniting, that is for sure.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2017 14:49

The ECJ for Beginners
Theresa May wants to leave the ECJ. The European Court of Justice oversees European Law. It is not possible to appeal decisions that national courts have made in the ECJ. Instead national court refer questions relating to EU law to the ECJ. (The difference means unless there is some potentional question or issue relating directly to EU law, the ECJ is irrelevant and does not ‘overule’ British courts unless the UK is not taking EU law into consideration when it makes judgements). The purpose of this is to make law across Europe consistent for all citizens. The court also can rule against other EU institutions if they act outside their powers.

The court has 28 Judges. These are legal experts whose independence is "beyond doubt" and who possess the qualifications required for appointment to the highest judicial offices in their respective countries or who are of recognised competence. In practice, each member state nominates a judge whose nomination is then ratified by all the other member states

It is the responsibility of the Court of Justice to ensure that the law is observed in the interpretation and application of the Treaties of the European Union.

The ECJ & Criminals & Terrorists
Contrary to what a lot of newspapers and leavers are saying at the moment, EU law and the ECJ do allow for the removal of criminals from EU nations and to bar them entry at our borders. There have been some high profile cases of known criminals carrying out serious crimes here. The main issue with this has been a failure of information sharing rather than the ability to stop people entering. There is no obligation for other EU nations to share details of criminals unless they feel there is a particular need to – eg terrorism.
Talk of this at the moment is a attempt to discredit the ECJ and drive a hard brexit by an ignorant (sometimes deliberate) confusion with the ECHR.

The ECHR is about the European Convention on Human Rights not EU law. There are 47 not 28 members of it. Our membership of this pre-dates our membership of the EU.

Indeed our membership of the EU and having a deal in place over cooperation over crime is supported by May herself, who used this as a reason to remain and pointed out that in 2015-16 we deported 3451 EU criminals compared to 1019 prior to data sharing. The data sharing that May threatened to bargain with, prior to the recent terrorist attacks here. In terms of security this is an area where in terms of security we would benefit with MORE cooperation not less.

The ECJ and Brexit
After Brexit, the ECJ will continue to rule on cases where EU law is ambiguous. Some of those cases will deal with laws passed in Brussels before Brexit, which the UK will have ‘converted’ in the Repeal Bill.

The ‘elephant’ in the Repeal Bill, therefore, is whether those future ECJ decisions will influence the decisions of the UK courts after Brexit day.

EU laws are interpreted in a different way from UK laws, with less focus on the literal meaning of the text and more on the purpose of the measure. The Institite for Government argue that:

‘This should be allowed to continue when EU laws are ‘converted’ postBrexit. There is no point imposing a literal style of interpretation on laws that were not designed for it.’

Which makes sense in theory – though in practice UK law would end up being UK law and UK law derived from EU law, in two parallel system rather than just UK law.

It also doesn’t decide whether the UK should continue to follow EU laws when ECJ rulings are made and to apply them the same here or whether we would make rulings ourselves which might end up in conflict with subsequent ECJ ruling.

All of which kind of makes your mind bend when you think about it and makes the law more complex and difficult to follow. The intention is that in time we make our own laws to replace these UK laws derived from EU law, but that might not work either, if we are still working in some way with the EU / subject to EU treaty conditions.

Still following?

Alternatives: The EFTA Court, a New Post Brexit Court or Arbitration
Some people say that we could go to an EEA agreement and instead be subject to a different court: The EFTA Court.

This court oversees the law of Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway who are subject to a number of European laws but there were legal difficulties in giving EU institutions power over non-members so the EFTA Court was set up instead. It is more balanced in terms of power with the nationality of each judge.

Of course we’d still be subject to EU law under it.

Other people have suggested we set up a new court especially for the UK / EU. And others still – David Davis included - have suggested we go for an arbitration system instead.

The main problem with an arbitration system is that it hands back control to the state, rather than the individual. This is both in the independence of who represents the UK – judges are more independent from the state – and who can bring a case – usually arbitration cases can not be submitted by businesses or individuals (in the context of everything else going on, you can see the problem with this. Image the perfect storm of the Human Right Act being repelled, an EU citizen living here married to a Brit who dies and another incident in the vein of Grenfell / Hillsborough and the ability for someone to get justice). I sincerely doubt the possibly of the EU agreeing to it, because of the UK’s already abysmal reputation in this area in how it treats citizens, regardless of whether they be British, EU or non-EU.

See two threads below on this:
Raphael Hogarth‏ @Raphael_Hogarth
Yesterday we had the most detailed discussion yet, from a minister, on dispute resolution after #Brexit. Thread on DD’s Marr interview. 1/
ECJ was discussed in citizens’ rights context. I.e. EU cit in UK says in 2025 ‘I was promised more pension £ than this’. Who adjudicates? 2/
This is one of MANY areas where ECJ rears its head. See my @instituteforgov paper out today 3/
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/brexit-and-european-court-justice
Even under ‘dispute resolution’ is a range of poss post-Brexit disputes. Cits’ rights/divorce bill/regulatory alignment/other cooperation 4/
The naïve view says: either UK judges will always decide who is in the right, or there will be oversight from the ECJ. Not so. 5/
Marr raised a “third way” between ECJ jurisdiction and total autonomy for UK judges: a new court with judges from both sides. 6/

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nauticant · 26/06/2017 14:49

With Monday work motivation failure going on here I was much more interested in what a billion pounds would look like in physical form and using LurkingHusband's link I reckon that in £20 notes it would actually be round about the volume of a double decker bus.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2017 14:50

Matthew Holehouse‏*@mattholehouse*
Important: May says EU citizens will be able to reunify with non-EU family on same basis as Brits. Means cash tests = cut in rights.

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RedToothBrush · 26/06/2017 14:53

Matthew Holehouse‏*@mattholehouse*

EU citizens CAN continue to export child benefits after Brexit, May says. The same rule Cameron tried and failed to scrap!

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RedToothBrush · 26/06/2017 14:54

lisa o'carroll‏*@lisaocarroll*
BREAKING: Comprehensive Sickness Insurance requirement for EU citizens who are students, stay-at-home mums and carers DROPPED. #EUcitizens

Again Theresa May suggesting that EU has yet to act on Brit citizens when they've already offered Britson all rights. #EUcitizens

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LurkingHusband · 26/06/2017 14:59

May says EU citizens will be able to reunify with non-EU family on same basis as Brits

From what I have read, that's not very much then ....

Sostenueto · 26/06/2017 15:00

May still pushing for hard brexit me thinks.