Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

www.ft.com/content/f000687a-5a4d-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220
If it means what it says, the UK cannot avoid the ECJ
Contradictions cloud future of EU citizens’ rights

Pointing out that Davis said this:

On the one hand, Davis explained the UK’s counter-proposal (recall that the EU has already tabled one) as follows: “Now what we’ve set out to do is to create a status almost equivalent to the same as British citizens. They get the same residents’ rights, the same employment rights, the same health rights, the same welfare rights, the same pension rights and so on. Almost equivalent to British citizens. The only thing they don’t get is the right to vote and they can get that if they become a citizen.”

But at the same time, he said: “We’re trying to ensure that every individual citizen gets their current position as it were locked in place for them . . . giving the people here confidence that the system will stay.”

Whose confidence does this mean? UK citizens or EU ones? Its relevant.

So they found a magic money tree

Shame they're funding the dup with it. We could have funded our NHS instead

If I were a non-UK EU citizen I would have zero trust in anything but the ECJ.

I strongly suspect the EU27 will be of the same mind. Particularly Ireland, having seen how quickly the Tories and DUP went from talks to smoking cigarettes in bed together.

But hard Brexiteers will in no way accept the ECJ. It really is the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.

And this has to be settled before David Davies can address the fantasy of free trade.

I am also a long term lurker on these threads and also the Trump threads. I'm a bit of a politics junkie but these threads are always so informative. Thanks to all who contribute.

As a Scot, I think only the Loyalists will be happy with the DUP deal.

There are more Scottish Tory MPs than DUP, so of course they have leverage.

As a Scot living in Scotland I think the DUP deal strengthens the position of Scotland and also the position of the Scottish Conservatives in Scotland and within the Westminster coalition.

Prior to the GE the Scottish Conservatives had already committed to keeping the winter fuel allowance in Scotland and this had been agreed with rUK Conservatives. Triple lock is a moot point with inflation above 2.5%.

Demands for further devolution for N Ireland fit with concerns over ensuring Holyrood autonomy is protected post Brexit.

Extra infrastructure funding for N Ireland was already on the cards to deal with Brexit border issues. More broadly there is a recognition of a need to spread infrastructure spending more fairly Northwards and this agreement helps the case.

More prosaically the spotlight on parochial politics in N Ireland will give lots of Scots pause re the dangers of fragmentation and sectarian divide from Devolution / Independence and this would tend to strengthen the Unionist Conservative vote imho.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/global-financial-crash-central-bankers-warn-back-with-a-vengeance-china-debt-gdp-ratio-a7807811.html
Great recession fears as bankers warn next global crash could arrive 'with a vengeance'
Next major recession could be brewing in countries like China, a new report warns

But its the EU that's supposed to be on the bink of collapse.

I think the DUP deal is a disaster.
For the GFA.
For the UK. ( I bet NS wont be happy ...)
For anyone except TM and her inner circle.
Plus, that £1.5BN is up for renegotiation in only 2 years...

I am furious.

So the confidence and supply negotiations with the DUP are over. I think I need more time to digest and understand this all, including the Maths.

Basically because the referendum happened and 17,410,742 people out of 46,500,000 were unhappy with many aspects of society, including the 0.7% of GDP we spend on the EU, this whole debacle started.

BUT in order to deliver that exit from the EU the government needs a majority. To get that majority it has to buy ten votes of the DUP politicians. Purchasing their support has cost an overall package of a thousand million pounds.That's' a UK billion £ right?

How does this compare to what they received before? Including what they revived from the EU?

I visited Belfast last year and there were EU funding signs everywhere.Of course money to go on health care and education in NI as its needed everywhere. However it seems wrong to me that democratic governments can openly buy votes.

Surely all MPs should vote on their moral values, their constituents' views and the political ideology on each individual issue under consideration.Politicians should not be asked to advance promise their votes, without knowing the precise issues, in return for money.Surely that is wrong?

Not to say anything positive about the DUP, but personally I'm not too upset at the idea of more investment in NI. It's a post conflict society and a lot of the relative peace of the last two decades has been built on giving them lots of money from Westminster. I'm ok with an escalation of that, provided of course something useful is actually done with it and there isn't another RHI style fiasco.

But of all the things that are wrong with this, giving more to NI isn't.

NI is also a post-industrial area. I'm sure the other post-industrial areas in the rest of the UK will be thrilled to see NI getting money they're not.

Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam

Confirmed: the extra £1 billion for Northern Ireland allocated as additional "block grant" - so no Barnet consequential for Scotland/ Wales
... there is precedent for this for N Ireland, and also for City Deals, say Government sources.
... its quite a considerable bump to Northern Ireland budget of about £11 bn a year - around £400-500m p/y in first two years - about 4%

Stryker McGuire‏
@StrykerMcGuire
Replying to @faisalislam
Does NI already get more money per capita from central government than other regions?

Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam
Faisal Islam Retweeted Stryker McGuire
Yes
England: £8,816 per cap identifiable spend
Scotland: £10,536
Wales: £9,996
N. Ireland: £10,983
Avg: £9,076
(Tho Eng v diff Lon vs rest)

There is no limit to Osborne’s hatred of May.

NI, as a post industrial area where politics has destroyed lives for generations (whatever 'side' you are on) may well deserve more investment. Not arguing with that.

But this is bribery.
The DUP have just squeezed £1.5BN out of TM to keep her in office!!!

(whilst people are at foodbanks, operations are being cancelled, police desperate for funds, people are dying in inadequate housing)

I thought the UK couldnt get more corrupt. But it does

But of all the things that are wrong with this, giving more to NI isn't.

Except the pie is only so big, so what NI is getting is coming from somewhere else in the UK.

Every cut to every service can now be pinned on the Tory-DUP deal. That £1 billion would have paid for a lot of schools, hospitals, nurses, social care.

Remember those farmers that wanted propping up ? That's £1 billion they're not going to see (not that they were anyway, but that's how spin works).

I loathe Osborne, but I LOVE that front page!!!

Interesting, howabout

Worth remembering, in context of the DUP deal, that public spending per head is already the highest in the UK and 21% higher than spend per head in England...

News from a few days back, but it'll be interesting to see how merger talks between the SDLP and Fianna Fail progress

So that's £1,000,000,000 bribe to get the DUP onboard with a party they would've supported anyway. And this is the government that will be negotiating brexit. No fear here at all

Love the E Standard photo

And the photo published by Red showing the signing of the agreement demonstrated why Damien Green (close ally of TM) has got the job he has