Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

Oh sorry sos I thought you had a kitten to go with your puppy! Have a good night.

Farage and responses:
@Nigel_Farage
Have this lot had a look at what they're actually supporting? Google 'Marxism'. #Glastonbury
@hijakejohnstone

Replying to @Nigel_Farage
Have this lot had a look at what they're actually supporting? Google 'Neo-Fascism'.
(with picture of Farage)
@hijakejohnstone Jun 24
One is a group of people, drug and booze addled, wearing stupid clothes and the other is Glastonbury.
@Nigel_Farage
Just googled Marxism. I'm now a Marxist. Thank you for opening my eyes, Comrade Nigel. ✊

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-trolled-on-twitter-over-comments-on-bbcs-coverage-of-jeremy-corbyn-at-glastonbury-a3572741.html

OCSockOrphanage

The big problems that I can see with forming a new 'En Marche' type party are that a) we don't have a presidential election over 2 rounds and b) we have FPTP.

The country needs a radical change, or unrest could explode as more and more people end up losing the little they had.

Shelter report:
More than a million households living in private rented accommodation are at risk of becoming homeless by 2020 because of rising rents, benefit freezes and a lack of social housing

www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/24/social-housing-poverty-homeless-shelter-rent

Reading a small amount about the Curtice exit poll, he measures the change over time in a particular place. That strikes me as the way polling is going to have to go - like weighing yourself every day in order to get familiar with how the fluctuations go - they're going to have to get people to say how they will vote every day, or every week or every hour or something. These days there are such huge waves that hit public opinion and they ebb so quickly, it's hard to follow. I don't know how much effect they really have but they certainly show up in current polling and I think they are misleading.

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen

1. The government publishes its Brexit proposals on citizens' rigjts today.

Be mindful of spin and over-simplification.

1. Issue not so much residency rights. That's easiest bit.

Or the cut-off date. That again is a relatively simple issue.

1. The ball to watch is bundle of rights (national insurance, pensions etc) that is integral to EU citizenship. Not just residency rights.

4 . This bundle of rights follows EU citizens as they move in EU. EU27 citizens in UK. UK citizens in EU27. Horribly complex post Brexit.

1. And then the key question: how are these rights interpreted and enforced post Brexit?
2. The obvious and sensible answer is some role for ECJ.

But that would make Brexiteer heads all explode

1. So look out for scope (not just residency) and interpretation/enforceabality.
2. And of course, EU side has been openly published and in detail for some time now. Today is UK response, not so much a proposal.

/ends

Simon Gardner @ Simon_Gardner
Nice question is what about the rights of a Brit Brexit-settled in, say Berlin, who wishes to move to Perugia? Will she be entitled to?

Thorunn Helgason @ LeuHea
Also, how do EEA nationals fit in, given how they are partially entwined with EU?

Moonlight Shadow @ Ombredelaluna
Look out for the CSI clause, if govt still want to strictly enforce it, proposal is just a rebrand of current process

The country needs a radical change,

May and brexit have helped Labour get that 46%. After years of conscious racism, incidents like this, are happening, when we need a peaceful transfer of power.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/25/demonstrators-confront-police-in-east-london-over-da-costa-death

Bullying of EU citizens is part of the same mind set which has led to the Stratford demonstration. ^ : state racism.

Rupert Myers @ rupertmyers
If our Brexit "compromise" between the UK Supreme Ct & the ECJ is a new tribunal then that will be almost no compromise at all.
Our objection to the ECJ is the issue of "control" - foreign judges ruling over us. This tribunal offered would have EU judges on it.
Our objection to the ECJ is the issue of "control" - foreign judges ruling over us. This tribunal offered would have EU judges on it.
So the UK's offer is to go to vast additional expense of creating a new semi-foreign court. Not really bringing laws home so much as a fudge
Won't be long before this tribunal is equally deeply unpopular - judges make hard, often unpopular decisions. That's their job.

Alien Saboteur @ Georgebernhard
That depends entirely on whether the media is allowed to continue publishing lies about institutions.

Our 'objection' is we are a nation full of racists who have been encouraged by our government and the media to be racists. This is precisely why the EU will not allow anything that doesn't allow outside authority over the matter. They don't trust us not to be raging racists and discriminate . This feeling has been nicely set up by the behaviour of our home office to act in a manner that disregards the law and rights. Thanks Teresa.

Zoe Garner @ Zoejardiniere
Absurd to talk about an "offer" to EU migrants (including Brits in EU) that will reduce their rights. May's position is a threat. #r4today

Quite.

Keep an eye on this story cv from last night and over the weekend. It arcs with Grenfell:

Itv news @ itvnews
Met Police officers injured as protesters set fires and throw bricks in violent clashes over traffic stop death of 25-year-old black man

Yep. red and thanks for posting that ^. And I choose to use this definition of racism: power + prejudice ( pastor Joseph Brandt's coinage)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prejudice_plus_power
Keeps it simple to double check.

Saw it last night, was worried that it looks like a Mark Duggan, type case. Many are thinking that 'enough is really enough'.

Election data @ election_data
Change vs More Of The Same elections. Which one was 2017?

After 2015 I spoke to a lot of voters who voted Tory to 'finish the job' re: the economy. Maybe over the last two years those voters have decided, perhaps rightly, that the Tories put Brexit and internal political management ahead of 'finishing the job' on the economy.

Maybe they got behind Theresa May in the hope she'd put this right and re-focus on the economy. That 'hope' proved unfounded. Or at least those voters didn't want harder Brexit rhetoric but something a bit calmer. Especially given that they'd given the Tories their vote in 2015 on the basis that they wanted them to get to 2020.

Seems to me that a lot of voters wanted 'continuity Cameron/Osborne' but got Brexit and a PM they couldn't get behind and therefore couldn't see the benefits of a 'more of the same' vote.

This is such an important story:
www.theguardian.com/media/media-blog/2017/jun/25/grenfell-reflects-the-accountability-vacuum-left-by-crumbling-local-press?CMP=share_btn_tw
Grenfell reflects the accountability vacuum left by crumbling local press

“I think people increasingly understand that our news ecosystem is broken, to the point where we can’t agree with our neighbours about what news events actually happened the day before. And I think people increasingly understand that the base of that ecosystem, local news, has to be fixed if we’re going to get back to a place where we share the same reality with our neighbours.,” he says.

Quick point here. Our local lib Dems are popular here but don't do anything when it comes to GEs. What a lot of people like is their local focus. Why? It's local journalism and focuses on accountability...

When Kippers supporters talk about many issues - it's down to accountability or lack of...

Beth Rigby @ bethrigby
NEW: Arlene Foster and Theresa May are meeting at 10.30am today to try to seal the #DUP deal

Deal or no deal? What do we reckon?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ca5cfe0a-59d8-11e7-ad31-8e588690cd15
Tory election guru wanted May to call Scottish referendum

Theresa May was urged by Sir Lynton Crosby to call a second referendum on Scottish independence before Brexit is completed, The Times has learnt.

As Nicola Sturgeon prepares to drop her two-year timetable for a new poll, a leaked memo prepared by the Conservatives’ election supremo shows that he told the party to “harness the uncertainty caused by Brexit and use it to secure support for the status quo”.

They didn't think they were going to do as well in Scotland as they did...

The bitter irony of course is that a story read by a thousand people might have had more impact than one seen by 10 million.

From the local press article in the guardian.

Think about that when you post on MN. It has something missing from elsewhere. The ability to tell a story and reach an audience that no longer exists in other places.

Deal or no deal? What do we reckon?

Endless spin, so we'll have no idea what happened.

I want to know just how much those 10 DUP votes cost. Then I want every part of the UK to receive the same amount of money for NHS, schools and infrastructure.

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
"We do not know what ECJ is, what it does, or how it helps UK citizens and companies enforce rights throughout EU. But we are against it."

Simon Cox @ simonfrcox
May's talking points don't change. Migration means crime; more enforcement/deportation means public safety. (Neither is backed by evidence.)

Reference to today's times front page which says 'Foreign criminals to be thrown out after Brexit'

About that...

Jo Maugham @ JolyonMaugham
European law permits them to be thrown out now.

But you don't need to take my word for it. Here's the Home Secretary saying exactly the same thing
news.sky.com/story/eu-criminals-facing-deportation-and-uk-ban-for-up-to-10-years-10605190

Speaking at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, Amber Rudd said the Government does not need to wait until Brexit to introduce the measures.

She said that it would be made clear to courts what to take into account when considering deporting EU criminals and put them on a similar footing to other foreign offenders.

She added that EU nationals who repeatedly committed minor crimes would be kicked out of the country and face a lengthy ban.

The Secret Barrister @ BarristerSecret
I see your Amber Rudd and raise you a 2016 Theresa May confirming that EU membership is the easiest way to deport foreign national offenders
See photo

Eurosluggard @ eurosluggard
See also Theresa May's excellent speech during EUref campaign (25 April 2016), highlighting this among a wide range of arguments for Remain

Jo Maugham @ JolyonMaugham
It's... it's almost like everyone agrees foreign criminals can be deported already...

Honestly! Did the Editors of The Express pool their brain cells to create one sentient human being which successfully invaded The Times?

And this is why Brexit and the debate around it are such utter bollocks in the UK.

According to the Metro, Corbyn says he will be PM in six months. Likely or not likely? With the present situation it would be a brave person who says so. I hope not really; I want to see the Tories sort their own mess out.

Could a political party set up a network of citizen journalists to talk about / report local issues? And find others with similar issues?

Just thinking out loud.

I want to know just how much those 10 DUP votes cost. Then I want every part of the UK to receive the same amount of money for NHS, schools and infrastructure.

You forgot, there Is No Magic Money Tree unless it's for bribing power for the Tories.

Peregrina, they are rallying around ATM. I can't see the event that will trigger a collapse in the government.

Yet.

As things stand I think Corbyn will have to wait, but who knows. The Tories have built their house upon the sand. I just don't know when the tide will come in.

Good article on local journalism; thank you for bringing it to my attention. Straight talking and sound analysis in an increasingly trivialised media world. Citizen journalism appeals, but finding it, verifying sources, and getting enough traction with readers might be a problem. Political engagement is rising, I think, but from a very low ebb.

It doesn't help that schools no longer teach citizenship in any meaningful sense; I would have been writing lessons about the lessons Grenfell teaches about accountability, and that article would have been a valuable resource, even if it's a bit long for year 9s.

Those 10 DUP MPs represent just 300,000 people (whereas the libdems, with their 12 seats, won something like 2.7 million votes).