Westminstenders: The Negotiations Continue - The DUP ones

[RedToothBrush]

Tomorrow is the Queen’s Speech. In honour of that the start of this thread is written in its honour:

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Immigration is bad. Except for that good immigration.
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Brexit means Brexit
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Pilot scheme.
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Money for –the DUP-- NI
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Brexit means Brexit
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The Internet is Bad. Newspapers are good.
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Brexit means Brexit.
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Britain wave your flag.
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(The Queen’s turns over the page to read the back of the A4 sheet, only to find it blank)

I agree too Peregrina.

I also find it slightly scary that the country is pursuing a totally idiotic path that may or may not still be the will of the people because there might be riots if we don'tand that now appears to be one of the key reasons for carrying on.

I think the politicians realise that whichever way we go now will damage the country and so they're keener to go down the route that they think they'll be more able to manage: a damaged economy, very pissed off Remainers who'll be grumpy for a decade or two but will carry on and pay their taxes, and the Leave side having been satisfied for the moment.

The balance might shift, for example the damage to the economy might come to the fore convincingly and relatively soon. That's what I'm hoping for.

there might be riots if we don't

There really might be riots though. Not in the "naice" areas but there are a lot of people in this country who feel really alienated from those who have benefited from the current economy.

Up North for example. We have the highest levels of deprivation. Low levels of investment and poor job prospects.
People have felt abandoned for decades. Brexit is the only thing they've felt positive about in years. If it gets taken away some people will be furious.

I just hope the pain of Brexit starts to persuade people sooner rather than later.

I posted on previous threads that I know 4 leavers and 0 remainers who have died since the referendum.
They were all over 75.

Hypothetical:

There are 2 married non-UK EU citizens living in the UK at the moment. Let's say they are both French.

By 2020, they have 3 children. One born 2016, one born May 2018, one born May 2019. All three children were born in the UK.

Can anyone believe the EU agreeing to a situation where any of the DC would have different rights in the UK to another because of an arbitrary date of birth.

By the same token if the above situation were mirrored with a UK couple in the EU, would the UK government be happy to see those children treated differently.

I am willing to bet £10 that the "offer" from Theresa May (and as far as I am concerned, everything the UK offers in Brexit should be personally ascribed to the numbnuts who held and election to weaken her position) hasn't even gone into that level of complexity.

Bearing in mind the above scenario(s) are straightforward. Wait until you add separated/divorced and contested relationships and children into the mix.

And remember: this has to be started before we get onto the bits DD wants talk about in Berlin

There may also be riots if the economy crashes and there are many job losses, with cuts to benefits, WTC etc due to fall in tax receipts

Those who would riot if Brexit is rolled back, would riot too if the consequences of Brexit makes them poorer

• Most of those who are fiercely pro-Brexit are expecting to be better off, not poorer

European Commission‏Verified account @EU_Commission

PM Theresa May's offer on citizens' rights "is a first step, but not sufficient". @JunckerEU at #EUCO - #Brexit

Complete the graphs yourself and see how much it matches with how the economy has actually fared in the last year. I'd wager lots of you would make a good go of it!

visual.ons.gov.uk/whats-changed-in-the-year-since-the-brexit-vote/

The thing to understand is at the moment the UK side is negotiating with interest groups in the UK. It's actually negotiating with itself.

It hasn't really started negotiating with the EU. I don't know how long it will take before it actually does.

Effectively the UK has promised the EU meetings to have hot sex and the EU turns up keen to get some action only to be told "you'll have to sit over there and watch me see to myself".

Love a bit of Junker.

The "generous" EU citizen deal proposed was a disgrace. I am so ashamed to have any birth association with this country right now.

Mother for you. I am at the point where I'm almost incoherent with embarrassment and shame regarding the way UK and EU expats are being treated.

Two years grace to be allowed to EU citizens entering Britain. In other words get here before the "to be decided" cut off date pre Brexit and we will allow you build up your five years for the offer.

Will the EU reciprocate?

Will UK be flooded with people arriving legally prior to the cut off date?

Hmmm.

Remainers and those Leavers who put the economy first are indeed most unlikely to riot

• but many aged 18-45 now may never vote Tory again in their lifetime

There is some evidence that major national events set voting patterns for the generation(s) affected:

e.g. the boomer generation that gained huge property windfalls from MrsT's Right To Buy and will mostly forever vote Tory and for lower taxation, pulling up the drawbridge to protect privileges that the younger generation will never enjoy.
Quite different to the Depression and WW2 generation who suffered great hardship, then voted in 1945 to create the Welfare State

An economic crash is one of those things that set voting patterns too:
Even the Tory Party, after 2-3 years of chaos in govt, would be unlikely to avoid the blame
Brexit could make them toxic, out of power for a generation and never being able to win over the current 18-45 cohort as they age over the decades.

nauticant

Let's hope it's just an opening gambit rather than serving stone

Let's hope it's not.

So far into the "negotiations" it seems to be emerging that the UK is treating them as some sort of sick high-stakes poker game.

By contrast, the people across the table are treating it with the gravity of people who know that countless families lives, futures, happiness, and security depend on it.

But then as long as BoJo is foreign secretary, the world will think the UK treats foreign relations like a jolly old jape.

The Uk being "flooded" by immigrants ?

We've already seen that even the unskilled EE fruit pickets no longer want to come to the Uk in the same numbers as they used to.
They are worried by reports in their own countries of E27 citizens in the UK suffering racial abuse and attacks. These are widely reported there and cause much anger.

Skilled E27 professionals will put the UK at the the bottom of their list, don't worry
The flow is the other way - like me, a scientific braindrain OUT of the UK

With the massive drop in the pound - not temporary like after the 2008 financial crash - effectively UK wages have plummeted for those in the E27 thinking of coming here

Threatening to ruin your own economy is a great way to discourage immigrants

I agree with Peregrina. The left behind have Corbyn now focusing dissatisfaction on austerity, the true culprit. People have moved on from Brexit apart from the old for whom Brexiteer has become an identity but they are not going to riot. It was 100000 remainers who marched in London. May is doing a fine job of making Brexit look like a dogs dinner and I am sure there will come a time when the majority will just want it all to go away.

Nick's pissed this morning

Nick Clegg‏*@nick*_clegg
One year on, which single claim, assertion or speech about Brexit has been the most significant? Tory guff about a 'global Britain'?
Dan Hannan's laughable assertion that Brexit had nothing to do with immigration? Darth Dacre's swivel-eyed attack on 'saboteurs'? No.
It was this from Dominic Cummings, the unelected mastermind of the Brexit campaign:
Cummings said: 'Would we have won without £350m/NHS? All our research & the close result strongly suggests No.' So it's official.
40 years of history & generations of British leadership in Europe torn up by a liar, who most voters haven't heard of, who's good at lying.
Try explaining that to our grandchildren.

And guess what Gisela Stuart says now:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-vacuous-gisela-stuart-leading-leave-campaigner-abuse-democratic-process-comments-a7803631.html
Leading Brexit campaigner says 'vacuous' referendum should never been called
German-born Gisela Stuart was Labour's most prominent Eurosceptic

Leading Brexiteer Gisela Stuart has described the EU referendum an “abuse of democratic process” and said she would rather ithad never been called.

The former Labour MP and co-chair of Vote Leave said voters were faced with a “vacuous” choice last June and the handling of the fallout from the poll was “not good democracy”.

But she still supports Brexit.

but many aged 18-45 now may never vote Tory again in their lifetime

And this is our hope now. That enough Tories will realise it's not in their parties interests to have us crash out of Europe. A lot of the 70+ year olds won't be around to vote in 15 years time.
Whereas most of the 18-40 year olds will be, and they won't be voting Tory.

Leading Brexiteer Gisela Stuart...

...can fuck right off. (I may have said that before).

Happily she is no longer my MP (can you imagine having to vote for her to keep the Tories out ?).

I have a particular spleen for her, as the few times I contacted her (for example to suggest we don't bomb Syria) I got a thinly disguised "I don't give two fucks what anybody thinks" back. On HoC notepaper.

Also, as someone who has benefited enormously from the UKs membership of the EU, it was dishonest of her to campaign against it.

I feel better (for now). But if her name gets mentioned again, I may have to rant some more ....

Just been shouting at the radio listening to Brexit: A tale of two cities www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08v8ssb

Didn't realise how very I still am about the referendum

I don't remotely blame the folk of Wakefield for being pissed off that their city has been run down and apparently forgotten. But I really wish the presenter had asked them why they thought the EU was to blame for that and what they thought leaving was going to do for them.

Matt Dathan‏*@matt*_dathan

Excl: The DUP has held secret talks with Labour and the Lib Dems to use as leverage in talks with Theresa May:
www.thesun.co.uk/news/3863508/dup-will-tell-theresa-may-to-accept-their-1-5billion-spending-demands-or-face-defeat-in-the-queens-speech/

Mother,

In today's online Guardian. Was also discussed early this morning on LBC.

"EU citizens already in the UK – and those who arrive lawfully during a subsequent “grace period”, expected to be up to two years – will be given the opportunity to build up five years’ worth of residence. The grace period could start at any point up to the date of Brexit and would allow EU citizens time to regularise their status."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-leaders-uk-plan-citizens-rights-vague-inadequate