Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

...Although I am now remembering news reports on the fall of Gadafi which featured British men who had travelled over to Libya to fight. The reports were positive about the fighters, and celebratory in tone - it was all "look at this brave doctor from Manchester who has come over to help fight for freedom" etc. How things change...

squishy, that's where I am with it. The stuff I saw relating to the Manchester Bomber himself was sensationalist in nature. Which is why I shy away from it a bit. But I think the underlying story has something to it.

The security services have been doing 'something'. They have been trying to recruit people to spy on ISIS by joining them for example.

My 'something not quite right here' radar is bleeping. I'm not entirely sure WHAT it is, but somethings is 'off'.

"I need to swat up, and think about the tactical approach. Needs to be go against the 'But TERRORISTS' mentality."

I think pointing out that it wouldn't work on a pragmatic level (it wouldn't) might be the way to go. That way you can't be accused of caring more about terrorists than British children (and all that bullshit).
Many of the policies being proposed by those who want to roll back our human rights would make our country more dangerous, not less.

One gentlemen in our ward - over 70 - had clearly never voted before. He was asking the poll clerks what he should do, and asked where to put his completed slip

Good for that man! I too would have been itching to know what had finally motivated him to get out the door and down to the polling station.

"I need to swat up, and think about the tactical approach. Needs to be go against the 'But TERRORISTS' mentality."
I've already tried it on several levels. The 'that was me 30 years ago' and 'where would you like me to go then'. The best thing about that as a white person of course is that you basically show some people as the racists they are, because they don't mean 'the likes of me'. And TBH, there's no logical arguing with racists.

"I don't mean you. You're ok"
Yeah
I've heard that line from the racists too
My mum white and speaks English so shes ok
😯😡

"I don't mean you. You're ok"
We've also had since the ref the 'oh, we don't mean the Irish - you guys are ok. We mean the Polish'
oh that's ok then...

News from a betting friend in the UK. Big hikes for Conservatives getting most seats and in the scale of the Conservative majority. Likely to be a feed from the exit polls.

There can't be exit polls yet??

I don't mean you. You're ok

Hear this a lot as a disabled person too.

Who the fuck thinks like this?

Those disabled/scroungers/black people can go fuck themselves, apart from the Ines I actually know, they're ok.

Are there exit polls out yet?!

I'm non-British born but white - and now naturalised actually it was done when I was a child. Should I go "home"? I've been in Scotland over 50 years (barring a few years in England and a couple of years in NZ). This is my home.

Fortunately I come across very few racists only on social media ; I seem to have selected my friends well

I get the distinct impression our next national debate will be about Human Rights on the same level of the EU debate.

I see the ECHR as a shorthand that any signatories human rights are up to scratch. Sort of ISO9001 for human rights.

If the UK is stupid enough to withdraw from the ECHR, it might find itself having to demonstrate it's HR principles multiple times, to multiple countries - especially ones we wish to do serious business with.

It'll be like firms that don't have ISO27001 doing business with firms that do. With the warning that there are quite a few ISO27001 certified companies that will not do business with non-ISO27001 companies. (Looks at former employer with Paddington stare. That's the former employer that found ISO27001 was "too expensive" and is now finding the lack of customers "even more expensive").

Don't know the timing of the Curtis (BBC) exit poll but this is the Betfair final estimate in case not posted.

CONSERVATIVE 366
LABOUR 208
SNP 47
LIB DEM 6
PLAID CYMRU 4
GREENS 1
CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 82

Only 6 seats for the lib dems!
Hope that prediction is wrong.

I think the lib dem prediction could be right. Feel bad for TF.

My swatting so far this afternoon:

May was responsible for immigration centre Yarl's Wood. The chief inspector of prisons called it a 'place of national concern' in 2015. May refused to reveal how many women had been assaulted or raped there. She refused UN inspectors access to the site. The UN rapporteur on violence against women described this as being similar to when Bangladesh had blocked her from visiting a notorious refugee camp.

Here's the wiki on Yarl's Wood
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarl%27s_Wood_Immigration_Removal_Centre#Inquiries_into_provision_at_Yarl.27s_Wood

I note the following:

A 2006 Legal Action for Women (LAW) investigation into Yarl’s Wood Removal Centre found that: 70% of women had reported rape, nearly half had been detained for over three months. 57% had no legal representation, and 20% had lawyers who demanded payment in advance. Women reported sexual and racial intimidation by guards. LAW’s Self-Help Guide has been confiscated by guards depriving detainees of information about their rights

This relates to a time prior to May's appointment as Home Secretary, but she seems to have subsequently tried to cover it up. This is BRITISH SOIL with BRITISH STAFF and BRITISH OPERATED.

Rashida Manjoo's report (she's the UN inspector refused access to Yarl's Wood) is well worth a read if you are interested in Women's Rights in general
www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14514&

Its not a particularly favourable write up. To put it bluntly.

In addition to this, I have found that in 2015 the UN Special Rapportuer on Human Rights Francois Crepeau is on record as saying that the Conservative threat to leave the EHCR was comparible to repression in Germany in the 1930s. Again over a year prior to the EU referendum. His comments have been widely reported.

Also the UN housing rapporteur Raquel Rolnik is on record in 2013 as stating that cuts to housing benefits could breach human rights under the Bedroom Tax. The Tories spat feathers at that one as you can imagine. Again this seems to have been widely reported.

At what point do we start talking about leaving the UN under the May government? Serious question.

Hasn't trump already mooted this for the US?

"News from a betting friend in the UK. Big hikes for Conservatives getting most seats and in the scale of the Conservative majority. Likely to be a feed from the exit polls."

But also a market move for a hung parliament:
twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/872803975904493568

Also, betting data is notoriously unreliable during the voting day.

I think 6 for the LDs could be not far off.

Orkney & Shetland
Twickenham
Kingston and Surbiton
Ceredigion
Edinburgh West
East Dunbartonshire

All fairly good bets. Then it gets sticky. The borderlines are
Westmorland and Longsdale
Bath
Oxford West and Abingdon

The Might Be Toughs
Richmond Park
Norfolk North
Cheltenham
Vauxhall

The Lost and Probably won't get
Sheffield Hallam
Leeds NW
Southport
St Ives
Carshalton and Wallington
St Albans

But we shall see.

Betting markets had a Remain win at about 75% probability.

Hasn't trump already mooted this for the US?

Yep.

Re: Betting. In the last election and in the Ref I followed the betting closely. I looked like people dumped a lot of money to try and influence things knowing that its tracked.

I'm not doing it so much this time. I made a note on this thread of where it was at 8pm last night. I'll have a look in a bit and see what's changed but where the money goes is not necessarily as important as the pattern of betting (lots of small bets for less money v more money by a smaller number of people).

I would love to see the lib dems make gains in Tory seats by soaking up tactical votes in areas where labour don't have a chance, and by winning votes from moderate Tory remainers in those areas. I know that's not backed up by the polls, though.

Am in Tory/Lib Dem marginal with excellent longstanding Lib Dem MP. There's a lot of love for him locally, but unfortunately UKIP have stepped aside and backed the Tories, Labour are campaigning specifically against Lib Dems and against tactical voting, and the Tories have gone hell for leather to persuade voters that some recent waste collection problems related to outsourcing are all the fault of the MP, with a dispiriting degree of success.

The 93% prediction was by the polling station for a whole ward and it is certainly a record by far for the ward.