Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Several analysts seem to think that the Labour surge is genuine, but:
not enough to compensate for their dreadful starting point
and is mostly piling up votes in safe Labour seats.

Also,
Corbyn's campaign was geared to saving as many Labour seats as possible - and save his job - whereas May's campaign was aimed at the marginals where all GEs are won - to save her job.

Most of the Tory voters I know are very decent people. A couple of them are twats, of course.

I have two friends who have voted for the first time ever. They're not under 25s but are under 40, and female.

Trying to come up with a list of things that will be victories even with a Tory increased majority.

So far:
No ukip MPs
Massively reduced ukip vote share
Kate Hoey out
Zac Goldsmith beaten twice in a year
Increase in young voters
Increase in women voters

Our polling station has been doing quite brisk business all morning and noticeable uptake in younger voter numbers compared to the referendum. Turn out has been higher as well.

're: 2012 Olympics, I felt like that after the referendum. I went to Berlin for the first time a few weeks ago and had a guided tour. The German guide was talking about the Weimar Republic and how during that period they thought they were living in a liberal, tolerant utopia only to find the Nazis had taken over on their watch. I'm not comparing voting for Brexit with supporting Nazism but I did

Would add to that list that I would LOVE it if Hunt go ousted by the NHA candidate.
An increase in both the vote share and seats of Lib Dems and greens.
No landslide for May.

...Sorry posted too soon.

But that I did share that sense the liberal Berliners must have had of "How the Fuck did that happen? Did they really hate us that much?"

I bet many of the liberal Berliners were banging their head against the wall when trying to discuss politics with some of their relatives. Can you imagine what twitter or mumsnet would look like if they had them in 1930s Berlin? Lots of posts about "how we need to stop pussyfooting around the Jewish anarchist problem" and "we need to get tough on the enemies of the Weimar republic to keep our children safe" etc etc.....

Time for a Labrador picture

If Hooey survives, or Zac Goldsmith wins, or Yvette Cooper or Ruth Cadbury lose their seats, or the LibDems pick up no extra seats, or Lucas loses the Green's one seat, will be even more depressed. That would be slightly tempered by Hunt losing but surely only teeny chance of that.

Actually want the UKIP vote to hold up a bit because it is fewer votes to Tories.

From LHs little corner of the world:

1. There was a traffic jam driving into the polling station - never seen this in 15 years here. (Usually we walk, but today we were in the car coming back from a hospital app).

2. There were other people in the polling station. Never seen that either.

3. One gentlemen in our ward - over 70 - had clearly never voted before. He was asking the poll clerks what he should do, and asked where to put his completed slip. (I would dearly have loved to ask him why, after half a century of not voting what had prompted him, but it's just Not Done).

Be curious to see what this translates into, if anything.

My two year old is obsessed by dinosaurs. The Poke are catering to my needs.

twitter.com/ThePoke/status/872771438025084931
#velociraptorsatpollingstations

LH It all sounds encouraging.

Polling stations doing a very brisk trade here, lots of young people, they are forecasting based on business to now a turnout of over 90%. Would that be some sort of record?

Mine was busiest I've ever seen it
I always vote at the same time - about 9am after the school run

I'm trying not be get too hopeful.

Iirc turnout was predicted at 59% last night?

Let's hope the pollsters didn't ask those that will decide this election...the young and the first time voters

Incidentally, anyone else picked up on the suggestion that the Manchester bomber, and one of the London attackers were known to MI5 becuase they were secretly recruited to fight for the UK in Syria ?

bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1875172.140

90% at your polling station? No some tiny ones have 100%.

90% turnout for the whole county? No chance!

Yes Lurking. I commented on it on the Human Rights thread (which seems to have gone a bit quiet. Maybe everyone is out voting).

I'm not 100% convinced about how reputable the reports are, but there certainly seems to be something there. It would explain why the UKBA allowed the Italian London Attacker in and why the Manchester Bomber was allowed to return from Libya. And why they were not on watch lists...

Needs investigating one way or another.

It looks like something that could, just about be true LH, but is there any actual evidence for it? May has been camera shy throughout the election campaign - so I don't think her silence post attack is evidence for what your link claims.

Comey on BBC News from 3pm.

Rupert Myers‏*@RupertMyers*

I am excited for Comey's testimony, but I don't believe - however shocking it is - that it will change a thing.

Comey: the video is real. Hookers, piss, all of it
Kellyanne: Trump is a great man
Voters: don't look at us
Trump supporters: f*ck you cucks

Republicans: don't take our guns.
Bernie supporters: see? we told you hillary was bad.
Trump: that video is the greatest video ever. Huge.

^This

Yes Lurking. I commented on it on the Human Rights thread (which seems to have gone a bit quiet. Maybe everyone is out voting).

Ah, didn't see it. But I can't read too much of that thread in one go. The level of stupid is actually physically painful.

I'm not 100% convinced about how reputable the reports are, but there certainly seems to be something there. It would explain why the UKBA allowed the Italian London Attacker in and why the Manchester Bomber was allowed to return from Libya. And why they were not on watch lists...

In a world where the US armed Iraq to fight Iran, and armed the Mujahadeen (aka "the Taliban") to fight the USSR in Afghanistan (both proven facts), it's actually the most fact-fitting explanation.

Did I mention Iran-Contra ?

BigChoc fully agree with that article.
But I dont think tht its jst the politics. Its the press too that has avoided ANY discussion on the subject.
Ony now, about 1 or 2 weeks before the vote, has there been a few art il est abut how TM brexit will be suicide for the country.
All well and good to find an article today on how much the economy will be hurt by Brexit
uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-brexit-negotiations-uk-economy-2017-6?r=US&IR=T
But really its too late.
That should have happened months ago.

Unfortunately TM has been VERY good at convincing the whole nation that there was no way back from the referendum and that the vote meant a hard brexit wo any discussion.

Very interesting if even remotely true lh
May explain why there's been so much attack on Corbyn post his comments that we need to look at our role out there. Would not surprise me in the least if our role out there was not just what we see in the press.

Traipsing back to an old subject but I bang my head at the people who think we should reduce human rights for certain sections of our own people but then say it's right we fight in the Middle East because look what they're doing to sections of their own people. I'm not sure how these people don't implode with irony.

squishy
www.middleeasteye.net/news/sorted-mi5-how-uk-government-sent-british-libyans-fight-gaddafi-1219906488
'Sorted' by MI5: How UK government sent British-Libyans to fight Gaddafi

Background. I've seen the story circulating more specifically for the Manchester Bomber, but this I'm more dubious about. I've also seen similar suggestions about Syria in the past.

In case you are not familiar with the Middle East Eye, its generally regarded as a reputable news agency, which has been referenced by the BBC, guardian, Huff Post and New York Times.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Eye

Thanks Red.
Its not that I am convinced that its not true, just that I don't want to assume it is. It is interesting, but I want to keep an open mind on it.

I can't read too much of that thread in one go. The level of stupid is actually physically painful.

I get the distinct impression our next national debate will be about Human Rights on the same level of the EU debate. You might have to get used to it.

I need to swat up, and think about the tactical approach. Needs to be go against the 'But TERRORISTS' mentality.