Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Betting is just a reflection of how much is being staked where. It has little to do with actual odds.

If enough people bet on it, a one legged horse could emerge as a Derby favourite.

Comey:

Russia definitely interfered in the Election but didn't alter votes (voting machines). Trump administration definitely lied. Doesn't think Trump asked him to drop Russia investigation. Comey worried that Trump would lie about meetings. Trump repeatedly asked for loyalty. Found conversations with Trump disturbing. Trump defamed the FBI.

"Labour are campaigning specifically against Lib Dems and against tactical voting"

WTF? So they are, basically, indirectly supporting the Tories in that seat? Why?

On the lib dem thing, I saw this earlier and thought it interesting, but there's more chatter on twitter about this subject now.

@hugorifkind
I genuinely think one surprising feature of this election, at least in London, is going to be Shy Lib Dems.
As in, people who get in the polling booth and can't bring themselves to vote any other way.
I mean, they'll won't win anything. Nobody wants to smell Tim's spaniel. But the numbers will be surprising.

The chatter is interesting as it suggests it's not just London. Though in London alone could possibly be not great for Labour.

But chatter is largely just chatter of course.

British humans enjoy final day of having rights

Human beings in Great Britain are set to enjoy a last day of having human rights before Theresa May is elected Prime Minister on a platform of getting rid of all that namby-pamby, hippie nonsense.
It is expected that Ms May will retain her current position despite running an election campaign so bad it seemed to be satirising all previous election campaigns.
The first order of business will be renewing her contract with Satan to sell her soul to him for power.
She will then set fire to all human rights legislation so she can extradite who she wants, when she wants, dammit.
Then she’ll have some Findus Crispy Pancakes for tea and retire to bed.
People across the country were planning to spend today enjoying their human rights whilst they still had a chance.
“I’ll probably just spend today being considered innocent until proven guilty,” said unemployed hamster-wrangler Simon Williams.
“I’ve actually taken the day off,” said Eleanor Gay, a single Mum of nine and Professor of theoretical physics.
“I’m going to spend it believing in whatever religions I want and then having an opinion on stuff.”
However, the prime minister herself has denied she has a problem with human rights.
“These reports are incorrect, I wholeheartedly believe in the principle of universal human rights,” she confirmed.
“Just not for everyone.”

I see the Brexit Arms are getting the champagne ready for Kim Jong May's victory.

Why on earth should they do so? May is going to let them down BIG TIME, because the Brexit she wants won't be what they want. Labour was also pretty anti-Brexit with the way they voted through the A50 legislation. Labour's strength's lay elsewhere i.e. a commitment to the NHS.

Why?

Everything they said they voted to save; the NHS, overcrowded schools and gp's, security.

All of it is already being decimated by the Tory's, no European migrants required.

Labour have pledged to save those things AND honour the referendum including the end of free movement.

(And may actually have a chance of negotiating like grown ups)

"Ruth" keeps emailing me, to warn me that if I don't vote Conservative I will be supporting a second independence referendum. (I am on a Conservative mailing list after filling in a survey). Never any mention of any other policy, or Brexit, and she never replied when I emailed her.
So fuck off Ruth.

Seen some of the observations about mumsnet bias in the arms, and they seem to be looking at a different mumsnet to me; yes, there have been plenty of pro Labour, anti Tory threads. But there have also been plenty of pro-Tory, anti Labour threads. Scaremongering and misinformation has been spread on both sides. But apparently, clever leavers are immune to all forms of confirmation bias, and everyone who disagrees is a seditious Labour shill.

It's worth being very wary of anecdotal reports of turnout.

The turnout in 2010 was 65.1%, and in 2015 66.1%. Yet I distinctly remember in 2010 people beimg turned away from polling stations, as they hit 10pm. I even had a colleague call me on the way home from work, as his polling station had a queue around the block (so he warned me to get there ASAP).

Given all that, you'd expect 2010 was way up on 2005. But it was actually only 4% (2005 was 61.4%)

www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

squishy I've lost count of the amount of threads decrying all Labour supporters as nasty name callers, usually swiftly followed by some decree that everyone who isn't a Tory is a lefty and then some sort of insult.

I see the Brexit Arms are getting the champagne ready for Kim Jong May's victory.

Why on earth should they do so?

Because they are a bit dim.

I have heard some good arguments for Brexit. Almost exclusively from people who actually supported (and continue to support) Remain.

However, when someone justifies voting because of bent bananas, you can pretty safely save your intellect.

Yet I distinctly remember in 2010 people beimg turned away from polling stations, as they hit 10pm.
In Sheffield? Funny that, after such a close election.

Brexit and Kim Jong May are going to look like right Charlies if and when the Russian links investigations spread across the Atlantic.

Whatever happens, the 2 parties are set to gain well over 80% of the vote outside Scotland, maybe 85-90%.

The Liberals winning byelections but being harshly squeezed in GEs is a feature of the 2-party politics I remember from the 1970s - basically what had been the case since Labour displaced the Liberals as the other main party.
The talk then was always that govts swing from left to right, but the country is in the centre.

imo, the pendulum at the moment has been stuck on right for some time

2-party politics moved to 2.5 after the SDP split.
So it will be interesting to see if the LDems start winning byelections and going up in the polls, a year or two into the new parliament.
and whether the next GE will also be so polarized and binary.

... Hopefully even if May is culled soon, the new PM will hold off calling another GE until 2021-22 .... unless some Brexit crisis demands a fresh mandate.

Looking back to compare with 2015:

Tory 2015 lead in UK was 6.5%
Tory lead in England was 9.4%

The median lead now in the UK polls is 7-8%, so a little higher
However, we can't extrapolate seats from 2015 and say a slightly increased majority unless the swing is uniform - unlikely.

Both Tory & Labour increased their vote from 2010.
That trend will continue this GE.
What is critical is how this is distributed through the seats

• current thought is Labour are piling up votes in safe seats where they do no good, whereas the Tories are expected to win Tory / Lab and Tory / Lib marginals

If so, that would mean 80+ majority, which is widely reported as the minimum to save May's from sudden stabbing pains in the back.
Possibly indeed even the landslide 120+ she originally expected

Unknown too is how much effect will there be from a possibly increased vote - if it happens - by the young and also by those who nonvoters who came out at the referendum for the first time.

I wore red T shirt and walking boots. ( and some other stuff, ) Next time, I'll try PJs and special brew, sounds like a much more sensible outfit.

Keep those fluffy dog pictures coming!

A colleague is cross. She is in Bercow's constituency so effectively has no vote, as there are no other candidates on the ballot paper as I understand it.

A 1992 type result would be copable with, a 1987er would be tricky.

Red, when are you going to start your online newspaper?

to warn me that if I don't vote Conservative I will be supporting a second independence referendum.

The Tories sent me something on facebook asking me to vote for them. I told them in relatively polite terms that I had already voted and would hope to get the useless Nicola Blackwood out.

Squishy, tell me about it. I'd say local party egos and personal ambitions of the inexperienced non-local labour candidate mean that they are only interested in vote share regardless of the outcome for the constituency, and they've figured out of course that it will be easier to take votes from lib dems than from Tories or kippers. Really depressing.

My social media seems to be full of Labour voters. The last few weeks have brought out much Corbyn love. I seem to be one of very few Lib Dem voters.

Very little mention of Brexit. It's all NHS and schools.

Strong & Stable - topples over on the M6 !

http://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/tory-strong-stable-ad-van-13148595

To illustrate how correct weighting is so crucial for pollsters:

The last IPSOS MORI poll had RAW figures a dead heat

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-06/pm-election-2017-final-tables.pdf#page=5 _
(Page 5)
CON 439 votes
LAB 439 votes

which is then weighted (to correct for sampling & turnout)
to give an 8% Tory lead:
CON 44%
LAB 36%

I'm actually quite interested in seeing the count here now.

Looking at the previous elections figures, Safe Tory hasn't really gained much in the vote, despite figures rising. On paper it looks like the UKIP vote was gained from Lib Dems and Labour, though I suspect in reality the Lib Dems went blue, and some blues went kipper along with a lot of redkip.

Safe Tory was extolling how poor the Labour campaign in our area was, and his bet was lib dem to come second. UKIP have fielded - not the local MEP based in the town, but someone from the other side of the country. I would expect UKIP here to retain some vote.

But the vocal support this morning for Labour in the streets was astounding. Never more than just a few posters in windows before, maybe some hushed tones. I'm really intrigued to see how much UKIP lose and labour gain.

Still think safe tory is safe though. A victory here would be him getting less than 50%.

Safe Tory hasn't really gained much in the vote, despite figures rising. On paper it looks like the UKIP vote was gained from Lib Dems and Labour,
Sorry, that should be overall voting figures rising, and UKIP getting some of the never voted before votes too.

Well this is interesting

Hashi, I'm being spammed to death by the Tories on FB today. I can't get away from May's face.