Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Labour would immediately guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK and they would do it unilaterally, because it is the right thing to do but pretty sure it would be matched across Europe soon after. May doesn't give a toss about Brits abroad.

The uk has a duty to all its citizens, regardless of whether they currently reside in the uk or not.

What a quaint notion. Is it written down anywhere ?

I'm inclined to agree with you squishy, I can certainly think of parallels in which national hardship (however self-inflicted) just results in more blaming of Others and further unfortunate consequences. But I believe the current viewpoint is that we the British have absolutely nothing to learn from history, and that "it" could never happen here because, somehow, we the British are different from foreign folk.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth
When the Brexit deal is agreed, I am expecting a British version of the "stab in the back myth" to emerge (cynically spread about and encouraged by certain donors and public figures who know their history). Hopefully, only a minority will buy into it.

There is a precedent for being placed into "special measures" when the UK effectively went bankrupt in the 1970s.

The IMF had to step in, and the UK had to sign up to some pretty harsh T&Cs to get help.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_IMF_Crisis

It's interesting to see this was the start of the Labour party factions taking shape.

The old canard about history repeating itself might be appropriate here.

On a brighter note the YouGov figures for today are
Conservatives 302
Labour 269
LibDem 12
SNP 44

Labour highpoint 302 and SNP lowpoint 30.

They have had a chance to rowback on their outlier predictions and yet they persist and have actually have moved progressively further against the Conservatives.

But I believe the current viewpoint is that we the British have absolutely nothing to learn from history, and that "it" could never happen here because, somehow, we the British are different from foreign folk.

My DF is not British, and has noted the first thing he realised about the British is how up our own arses we were about it. He grew up under a fascist regime, and frequently sighed when my DM tried to tell him that "it couldn't happen here, because we are British". He ignored that, and made sure myself and my 2 DBs knew our own history.

"After all, the only real difference between Stalin and Hitler, was that Hitler kept better records."

Has anyone read this piece by an (anonymous) charity worker? It's quite shocking how far a new(ish) law is being used to silence charities and aid agencies during the election period:

Wondering why this election has seen no reasonable discussion about human rights, the environment or development? That’s because the Lobbying Act, which everyone said was merely a “transparency tool”, has successfully managed to gag any organisation that could have added some depth to the election debate. Instead, polarised views based on opinion, rather than fact, dominate.

Over the past six weeks, I’ve been sitting in my quiet corner “knitting” as the election rages around me. Apparently that’s what charities do best. The 2014 act, which restricts what NGOs can say in the year before a general election, has managed to cower charities across the country to do precisely what they said they wouldn’t do: shut up and sit down, and let the politicians and the media do all the talking.

On a brighter note the YouGov figures for today are

Just done another YG political survey.

Seemed to go quite well until it got to a question about who I voted for in 2015, at which point I exited the survey. Curious to know what the "right" answer would have been.

It does worry me that they had a "Don't know" option for "Did you vote in the 2015 General Election ?". Unless it's some sort of idiot bear trap ?

What a quaint notion. Is it written down anywhere ?
Yeah, the same place as our constitution

Do you mean that you didn't want to tell them which way you had voted or you told them and were considered unsuitable for the sample, LH?

Do you mean that you didn't want to tell them which way you had voted or you told them and were considered unsuitable for the sample, LH?

I told them, and the survey jumped to "On a different topic" with two more questions, and then end.

I've been a YouGov-er since 2000 and whenever (I won't say it paid for the extension, but certainly some nice scotch ) and I've got used to their ways. (I've also met their consultants in the course of my work). This was definitely a trapdoor question. It was specifically linked to my location, as it knew the candidates in 2015. Indeed the entire survey was geocentric, as it was careful to check my address was the same as their records before it started. The reason being it gave the names of candidates standing, as well as the party.

(It I were putting that survey together, I'd note that a lot of people haven't a fucking clue who the candidate they are voting for is. They just know it'll be "Labour", "Conservative" etc).

Now I'm not ashamed to say my answer was "Green party".

So the question is why did they not want a Green-to-Labour voters responses ?

They've already captured my intention (definitely will vote, Labour), so that part of the survey is accurate.

Interesting that I haven't had another YouGov survey since contributing to the first of their forecasts.

Wonder if a) they've already established that my constituency is "safe" SNP - although I know he's not taking anything for granted (looking for "knocker-uppers" tomorrow as a higher priority than standing at polling stations) or b) the fact that I said I was 100% likely to vote and 100% unlikely to change my vote meant that I wasn't worth coming back to?

Interesting that I haven't had another YouGov survey since contributing to the first of their forecasts.

They have. They had one on Sunday. There is one due later today.

Apparently if you click on this story apparently it rises higher in the Oxford Mail headlined. It has some of our favourite pantomime characters and I thought of Pergrina as I did it. I like to think that as well as pushing it into the headlines it also turns a voter Libdem...... www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/15333864.Oxford_Tory_candidate_in_support_video_gaffe/

Bear in mind someone is paying YouGov for their surveys (and they ain't cheap).

We had a visit from the Liberal battlebus today with Tim Farron, what a circus! There were TV interviewers swarming over every poor unnocent shopper that strayed into the vicinity. I hope I am not right but in a show of just how much the Press want to get to the bottom of the policies being campaigned on they went into a frenzy when he leant over to pet a dog.... Let that not be the only coverage that makes it to the news I have to say that there was an air of tetchyness about the Presspack, I suppose it has been a long campaign for them. I really hand it to these politicians,Cable and Farron managed to make it look like a casual stroll chatting naturally whilst surrounded by Mayhem, Press falling over themselves, crashing into passing cars, trying to find innocent punters to throw at them....

Thread on polling problems

Dr Kevin Cunningham‏*@kevcunningham*
1/ A lot of talk about what's going on in the polls. Forget shy voters and late swing, here's the decades old problem..
2/ People that respond to polls (or opt into online panels) tend to be more interested, civic-minded.. more likely to vote. (Good so far!)
See link for rest of the thread here:
twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/872424470455123969

People that respond to polls (or opt into online panels) tend to be more interested, civic-minded.. more likely to vote. (Good so far!)

I have had the devils own job trying to explain "self-selecting" to some people ...

Just to add Lurking, similar Yougov experience. DH and both members, both moved from one marginal to another in the last few months.

DH nailed his colours to the mast re voting intentions a couple of months ago. One survey since, non-political subject.

I've played my cards closer to my chest, surveys coming thick and fast.
Have also noticed that if you say "Don't know" the first time they ask you about you voting intention, later in the survey they will ask you again.

For myself, I have moved from LibDem (heart) to Labour (head).

I am *king cross, because it will look like I have had a Brexit epiphany (which I most certainly have not). But it's a war, not a battle, so strategy trumps tactics. The number one priority is to make the next 5 years as unpleasant as possible for the Brexit brigade. Ideally with a Tory shortfall, but I would settle for them being returned with a smaller majority than when they went in.

In fact, the latter is probably a better outcome, as it will pin Theresa May to be PM (which she wanted, let's remember). If there was no overall majority, the Tories would have a just reason to dump her, which is far too quick a political death for my liking. Five years of internecine irrelevance seems fair.

That's the point Red - I know that YouGov are continuing to poll and that it's a rolling poll. It's just interesting that I haven't been polled again (and I keep checking to see if I've been asked ).

So it's a combination of, as Lurking says, self-selection on my part - and then, on YouGov's part, non selection Presumably because I said that I was 100% sure of my vote

www.ft.com/content/cd94a7c2-4ac8-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
Theresa May’s lead has dipped, but is stronger than polls suggest
Conservatives on course to increase majority despite Labour running a strong campaign

The key para?

The fundamental problem is that polls oversample the kind of people that like being polled.

Britain Elects‏**@britainelects**

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (+1)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ICMResearch / 06 - 07 Jun)

Britain Elects‏**@britainelects**

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 46% (-)
CON: 34% (-1)
PC: 9% (+1)
LDEM: 5% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)

(via @YouGov / 05 - 07 Jun)

I am not going to get excited about the YouGov polls until the results start to come in. Then I will probably think that their methodology was clearly a load of codswallop.

Now if Theresa May were to be returned with exactly the same majority..... it would show that she had wasted time and money unnecessarily. Would the Tories ditch her? The obvious candidate is BoJo and he won't want to soil his hands with Brexit.