Westministenders: Election Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tock, tick tock goes the Brexit Clock.

Don’t panic, just don’t turn up to debates because you have talks starting on the 19th June and have to perfect the 100 page document relating to at least 750 international agreements that need renegotiating before then. Anyone who turns up for their job interview for that, is just wasting time.

If only someone hadn’t called a distracting election.

This election was dubbed to be about Brexit. Yet it is remarkable that we have barely had debate over it. No one wants to admit it really. We nearly got a consensus between Barry Gardiner, Nick Clegg and David Davis over it being a political not economic decision on Question Time on Thursday 1st June, but we are not quite there yet with the admission that the economy is toast. This means the addition money the Conservatives have promised for the NHS won’t be available but we can’t have this discussion. Its properly the fault of purdah. Instead the subject rapidly got skipped over. Instead Davis said that the target May had just set for immigration to be at tens of thousands by 2022 was unrealistic.

In post-election rumour has it that Davis is about to get a promotion to the FCO, whilst Johnson gets the boot. On the other hand Gove is also rumoured for NI and May loyal Gummer gets Brexit.

Meanwhile the 1922 Committee of Tory Backbenchers are said to be plotting the downfall of at least one of May’s guard dogs, Nick Timothy following the decision about the Dementia Tax and subsequent U-Turn. Farage also mentioned Timothy in his statement over the breaking news that the CPS are pressing charges on the Conservative Candidate for South Thanet (the former MP there), his agent and a Tory Party official over election expenses. It seems almost inconceivable that Timothy can survive a traditional Tory Knifing.

This is all as May’s leadership approval ratings are in freefall as the honeymoon is firmly ends, after the public finally got to see her create an army of strawmen as answers, in a barely concealed contempt for the public’s concerns. May’s reaction to a negative reaction? Go back into hiding from media accountability and get the Mail to do her dirty work.

Elsewhere the EU have lined up to criticise Trump over his hard ball attempt to renegotiate the Paris Climate Deal. May was noticeable by her absence as she’s trying the same trick over Brexit and is desperate to keep Trump onside. What is Trump offering us in return? Apart from a Brexit Opportunity to get stiffed.

As for the polls? Despite them, it’s difficult to see the Tories not making a net seat gain. For Labour to do well it relies on widespread tactical voting, young who haven’t previously voted turning out in levels not seen since the 1970s and this being spread across the country and not concentrated in University areas. This will be tough to achieve to simply stop a Tory Landslide, never mind a hung parliament. Labour winning a majority is the stuff of pure fantasy (needs Lab to be 12points ahead of Cons). That said, if the result isn’t much different to the 2015 result, it will beg major questions over May’s leadership and her ability to read the public mood. It will say something about her refusal to engage with ‘the saboteurs’.

Expect an increased Tory Majority but not of the epic scale of 470 they originally were aiming for.

Re Bollards - we have a lot in London, but they can hinder emergency services and escape routes. IIRC Westminister bridge had difficulties because of them, they stop before the end.

In any case, it appears those intent on damaging our (and their) country will just improvise. Bomb making difficult? I'll use a car as a weapon.

Interestingly I was talking with a muslim woman wh was telling me that Imans should do much more. Both in reporting what they see, in making it clear that they are against terrorism but not just at the mosque (where apparently they have talks about it on a very regular basis) but also in the public eye.

The problem of course is that, when they do, organise a march etc... non one is really talking about it :(

Im finding this second terror attack disturbing because it shows a clear plan to destabilise the elections (what is it that they are worried about? TM winning because she will close the doors of the uk and send people away if she has any doubt about them? Or JC winning because his approach is actually much more likely to make a lot of damage to 'the cause'?).

Im now expecting the army in the streets again. Because there wont be enough police forces again.
And yes I suspect the elections migth be postponed, at least so that they know things are 'safe enough' on polling day.
But then there were suposed to be safe and the issue contained after manchester too :(

Bollards wouldn't have stopped the knife attack. Nor would the banning of carrying knives. Didn't it happen in a restaurant, where there will be any number of sharp knives in the kitchen?

You are right of course. We can't stop attacks like that if people are determined to carry them out. All we can do is try and stop people wanting to. Foriegn policy, arms trade, intelligence and policing, media reporting, and how we integrate with minority groups are all a big part of this. There is no easy solution though, which will mean the Government will not want to do it.

On the bollards, having spent half my life living in and around London I have just always thought it would be nice if they pedestrianised large parts of central London. Probably wouldn't have any real impact on terrorism though I admit. Just a lovely dream of mine

Bollards wouldn't have stopped the knife attack. Nor would the banning of carrying knives. Didn't it happen in a restaurant, where there will be any number of sharp knives in the kitchen?

I'm not suggesting that any one measure would be effective on its own, but public safety measures do have an impact. The obvious point is that if last night's attack had taken place in America, the three men involved would almost certainly have been carrying firearms, and many more would have died.

Bollards to protect the public from vehicles in high footfall areas may make sense regardless of terror risk; there have been many incidents in which uncontrolled vehicles have struck and killed pedestrians on busy streets.

But yes, I agree with the above - you won't ever stop a determined terrorist, but you can make them less effective.

The received wisdom in Europe last year was that the UK had been relatively terror free since the London bombings because of community policing and outreach - in sharp contrast to much more divisive policing practices in France, for example. I do wonder if cuts have started to erode the UK's relatively good community policing standards.

Vauxhall - sorry I meant Borough. There was a non-Terror stabbing at Vauxhall which isn't too far from Borough.

I'm trying not to read too much detail and got confused.

For context, I grew up in the city (and live/work here now) under the IRA campaign. My primary school was minutes from the Bishopsgate bombing I saw the damage. Our home was damaged by the Canary Wharf bomb (blown out windows).

This feels more personal, callous; people living their lives are direct, close targets.

But those families today. The people with life changing injuries.
I don't know. I just do not know.

The BBC is reporting that labour has suspended campaigning until this evening.

Lazybaztet The Bishopsgate and Canary Wharf bombings were a change of tactics for the IRA towards economic targets, before that many innocent people lost their lives both on the mainland, and even more so in Ireland.

Add to that cuts to youth services and centres, Misti.

No, bollards won't stop knife crime, but the biggest, easiest weapon to get hold of is a motor vehicle, so why not offer pedestrians protection from that? Decent town planning should mean you can do this without restricting emergency services. You could always roll it out in other cities too

I think it will be impossible to anticipate all attacks of this type through intelligence so we either work on preventative strategies or try to mitigate their effects.

I am yet again thankful that we have such strict gun laws in this country!

Me too.

What - sorry I'm showing ignorance and a Londoncentric view which is wrong of me.

Bolshy and Misti - I agree with your points and they they are linked, a strategic community approach would hopefully bring preventative measures. A heavy police state approach would make things worse.

I read that the Army are facing cuts, the same army that London (and maybe other cities?) are utilising to backfill the police cuts. Seriously? Is our current government unable to connect the dots?

Could you imagine if we didn't?

Out of curiosity, I'm surprised there aren't more Islamist terrorist attacks in America.

Mind you, they probably think the young white lone wolves are killing enough already.

I don't think it has anything at all to do with the election, and postponing it is not the right thing to do.

Tbh, I think this has more to do with the news this week that there are c20000 people of interest & c300 people on specific watch lists.
The people who did this last night were probably panicking, knowing they're probably on one of the immediate threat lists & decided to do a knee jerk 'act now'.

The Police located and shot the attackers in just 8 minutes from the start of the attacks. It is hard to see how they could have been more responsive without all our Police being armed / relaxing their procedures that are designed to ensure innocent people are not shot.

I agree that there are many small and ordinary measures like bollards that can be taken to prevent vehicle attacks but having done that they will simply change their method of operation. The real issue is as others highlighted overnight tackling the root causes that have generated this hate, and hate is exactly what it is, and always has been.

Awful events.

There should be more thought in how these incidents are reported, including on SM. The Vauxhall incident was apparently unrelated, but a more measured response might mitigate some types of reaction. I don't know how one gets a measured response, but this seems to have been one of the first casualties in the last year or two. There are these strange "keep calm and carry on" slogans, which seem to have encouraged the opposite response to so much recently.

Agree with what Lazybasted just said. Leanne Wood made the same point quite powerfully in her leaders' debate, I didn't know she used to be a probation officer.

Lazy I was close to both the Old Bailey and Victoria Station bombs but the closest it came to home was a family member who queried a bag behind him on a shelf in a pub in Dublin, fortunately they were evacuated before it went off.

woman At the time that the Vauxhall incident was generating concern the Met Police were still broadcasting their run, hide, tell message on SM. They were clearly still concerned that the incident was not over and had made a decision to generate that level of worry / panic.

Just a point here. The event took 8 mins from when the van hit to when the three suspects were shot. 8 minutes. Total.

Now we might not have guns everywhere like the US so this meant it was longer than it would be in the US. But thats 8mins minus all the other domestic and criminal shooting the us has which add up to rather more deaths.

I think that's bloody impressive.

Not only that but I've seen in suggested that the plan was probably to hit and run and then take hostages which they would then kill. (This is why police were saying run, hide, tell because that's what they were worried about). They didn't manage that because people started fighting back and because the response time was so quick.

The time it took for events to start to crystallise in the media gives a very different I. Obviously the police took considerable time in ensuring that there were no other individuals and carrying out controlled explosions as well as making sure the injured where attended to.

In terms of response thats bloody brilliant. Whilst London is bigger and more crowded and glamourous as a target it also has a better ability to cope with such incidents.

What the police have been saying for a while is that it's not London they are most concerned about. It's public knowledge how and why. I'm not going to expand further, because I think you'll take the point without me needing to.

Absolutely, whatwouldrondo but there's a difference between advice tweets and the other stuff that was and is flying about. 'Oxygen of publicity and all that.' Run/hide/ tell has been the protocol for a while now. It is awful, there's no denying it.

It's public knowledge how and why
The police are asking people not to upload films but to send them to them.

Kind stuff since attacks: Cabbies giving free lifts, SM ads for free accommodation in London, mn thread sending nice food to London hospitals.

The people who did this last night were probably panicking, knowing they're probably on one of the immediate threat lists & decided to do a knee jerk 'act now'.

BBC were saying this last night. Happened after 7/7 but the second attack was foiled in part because they didn't have time to plan as well.

It might suggest that arrests that have been made have been on the right track.

But yes I do think trying to do it before the election would come into it to. Isis are trying to maximise impact and disruption. Plus the one love gig in Manchester is today and they might want to rattle people for that. And Isis have called for as many attacks as possible during Ramadan. It's a perfect combination of timing.

I hear national election campaigns seem to have all been called off today. Today only though. I've not been able to confirm situation re: local campaigning yet. I think people are wanting to carry on but I've not found out definitively either way yet. It would seem a very good idea. I wasn't happy at length of break after Manchester. It was too long.

Rhythm and Maths: thanks for the article.

Police and medics do a great job but there has been too many cuts. Not enough military . I did not see any military in Covent Garden nor additional police.
My biggest worry is a coordinated attack on London.
Imagine (God Forbid) simultaneous attacks in Camden Lock, Brick Lane, Covent Garden, Leicester Square, Sloane Square, Victoria and Blue Water shopping centre. If some massacres occurred in that fashion , (am a bit apocalyptic but happened in Paris) police and hospitals would just not be able to cope due to the cuts and understaffing.

Can you imagine if guns were more freely available, à la the States?

Not only would the perpetrators of this atrocity have been able to use guns rather than knives - even shooting from their van - and bystanders, in their untrained and panicked reaction could have caused collateral damage more accidental deaths in their understandable attempts to bring down the bad guys.

The casualty toll would have been higher, not lower

Red I gather that last week there were armed police patrolling around York Minster. That level of security is in sharp contrast to the level of security in London. I know that the leaders debates were in York but that was out at the university which is a couple of miles outside town. You can only assume there was a specific threat or that Northern Cities have woken up to the fact that it could be them....

I also think a lot of fear is driven by the 'bot army' online. These are organised. Not necessarily by Isis (indeed probably not by Isis but either by their accomplices the far right or worse). The number that suddenly appeared following Donald Trump for example.

I have taken to being careful during incidents and sticking only to my direct feed most of the time rather than straying off to hastags because all that happens is you get angry and worked up because the bots up the anti and help drive the hysteria and anger.

You don't tend to get reliable info much slower tbh. Nor lose speculation much either. It just filters most of the bollocks.