Westministenders – 10 days to go

[RedToothBrush]

The Maynifesto is out (lets be honest here; other Manifestos are just exercises in dreaming). The rumours of what will happen post Election are in full swing.

The Conservatives are ‘relaunching’ their campaign after Theresa May’s single handed attempt at throwing the election, has needed an intervention.

Yet the reality is that May will win. And win comfortably, increasing her majority. Talk of a Corbyn surge is just that. Talk. He still is more than 5% behind and the excitement about how the gap has closed is getting carried away. Indeed it only helps the Conservatives to get their vote out. Corbyn also started from such a dreadful position, it just makes the effect look more dramatic than it really is and May was always going to struggle to get much more support after the local election peak.

The thing is none of the political parties are covering themselves in glory. No one is offering what people want. In terms of voters not being impressed by their leadership, I don’t think many are really happy and are just going for the best available option out of a particular bad crop. It does not bode well for the future regardless of who wins. We should be worried about the quality of debate and our representatives regardless of who we end up voting for.

Come election night there are going to be some particularly shocking results. The idea that there is a national trend is not right. This election is highly localised in nature. Which will result in these surprises to outsiders but perhaps not locals.

June 9th will make for a lot of soul searching I suspect. For all three parties. There will be leadership questions that remain unanswered and need to be resolved. There are still massive political divides in parties. Heads will roll and need to be replaced. Expectations and the reality have been out of line for all three in one way or another.

Yet all of this is a side show to an extent. Whilst we all scrabble around trying to work it out amongst ourselves, the rest of the world moves forward without us. And the clock ticks.

Merkel has set the tone for the next round of Brexit. It is regarded by the German political elite as ‘Trumpandbrexit’. We are part of the same phenomenon even though many see it through different eyes in this country. This lack of awareness of how we are perceived outside our own walls is something we will face head on at some point and it won’t be good.

Trump himself is up to his neck in scandal. And has risked our safety as a direct result. May might have held her hand but that relationship does not seem to be going well for us. We are between a rock and a hard place and are drifting out to see.

Global Britain has never seemed so lonely and isolated. The rosy future we were promised, becomes ever more a distant dream rather than a dawn of a new age.

Reality will get us in the end.

The fall in trade union membership
And 1992 Trade Union act,( which curtailed trade union activity and membership substantially) and 30-40 years of anti union propaganda.
There would have been no UKIP if the 1992 Trades Union act had been repealed. A union is as strong as its members, and union activity is now regarded as tantamount to a fifth column. Restricting trade union activity has continued under this government and their plans are even more severe. The Southern Rail strike has worried them.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/15/trade-unions-conservative-offensive-decades-strikes-labour

I take your point, red, about potential corruption in trade unions, and it's obviously the same in all political parties and conservative freemason groups, but it was trade unions who built the labour movement and the welfare state, not political parties. The answer is checks and balances on union democracy, and enabling workers to be in unions.

A leave poster a while back gave shocking testimony about immediate dismissal to any construction industry worker found to be a member of a trade union. Construction workers have been particularly badly affected by recession and wage diminution through employment of cheaper migrant labour.

Again, Germany manages to remain a functioning healthy affluent democracy with extremely high trades union membership. Being a member of a trade union, like paying reasonable taxes for public services, is seen as part of a healthy democracy.

The students union will be the main organisation which helps gets out the youth vote next week.

I think the audience appearing to be v v left wing is because momentum are a very noisy lot.
I'd be beyond shocked if the BBC hadn't ensured a proper balance tbh - I think the Tories were just quieter.

No, I think we have just got used to seeing programmes like Question Time, packed out wall to wall with UKIP, and until the County Council elections, UKIP always called on to speak on the Politics programmes. For once we saw a balance. Surprise, surprise, the Mail don't like that, fascist rag that it is.

The fall in trade union membership is probably to with chsnging working practices like self-employment and zero hour contracts.

Also I can say from experience that when you are struggling to pay the bills and wondering how you are going to put food on the table due to extortionate rents and childcare costs trade union fees seem an extra you can live without. Even more so if your union does not always seem to be particularly effective or even at times appears to be standing in the way of changes that would actually benefit you.

I would like to add that I am hugely supportive of trade unions in principle and recognise their importance to democracy and workers rights. It's just that the ones I have come into contact recently seem more inclined to make a small number of old school union reps feel big and important than actually provide helpful representation for employees. I have however been pleased to see the unionisation of zero hour contract workers progressing. An area that really needs some good unions.

Interesting reflection

Jo Maugham QC @ JolyonMaugham
If you think we are stronger in the EU you will be frustrated by Labour's policy on Brexit. But there are positives - and a prospect. /1
Here's the key page in Labour's Manifesto (t.co/LJSWYFPJY2) and you'll see it presages a rather softer Brexit. /2
Unlike the Tories, Labour does not threaten to remake our country as a safe-house for tax dodgers and polluters on the edge of Europe. /3
Labour prioritises jobs and the economy rather than Theresa May's bigoted, dishonest and economically suicidal immigration target. /4
The Conservatives' dishonest line - that 'No parachute is better than a bad parachute' - is disavowed. Labour knows we need a deal. /5
There is no Court of Justice redline that puts ideology ahead of, e.g., the national interest on terrorism. Security first - and rightly. /6
Elsewhere the Manifesto promises to reverse our withdrawal from Euratom - a Tory stance that alarmed scientists and baffled politicians. /7
If you are a UK citizen living abroad or an EU citizen here take double comfort: 1 from Labour's unilateral stance and 2 no CJEU redline. /8
"Ah." I hear you say. "That's all well and good. But under Labour we'll still leave. And we can already see the harm Brexit does." /9
And I feel ya, Ophelia. But, remember I said there's a prospect? Well, there's a prospect - and it's a real one. /10
Labour will not win a majority. The most it can hope for is a coalition. And who will it be with? The SNP. And the Lib Dems. /11
And both SNP and LibDems are pro-European. Neither will go into Coalition with Labour without securing concessions on Europe. /12
And what might those concessions be? Remember that Labour Party conference vote on the need for approval of the final deal? Well... /13
So, all other things being equal, Remainers do still have reasons to vote Labour. Especially in a marginal with the Tories. /14

Andrew Langstaff @ cowboycoder
Which I fully expect Corbyn would agree to. Like a reverse-Cameron gambit, where he hoped LibDems would provide a get out from a referendum

Btw the YouGov seat by seat?
Hastings and Rye, lean Labour.

I thought the audience last night was quite balanced, and yes I agree that there's been a bit of desensitization towards the UKIP-leaning audiences on QT etc. The BBC conducted telephone interviews as part of the audience selection process and I understand this was quite rigorous and done well in advance...long before anyone knew JC was going to turn up. There was a statement put out about this which I can't now find to dissuade people turning up last night in hope of spare audience tickets.

I think the reason the Tories came out looking worse than usual was 1) that JC has "woken up" to the fact he might actually have a fighting chance of winning, plus 2) it was one of the few occasions when the mostly excellent politicians representing other parties were given equal exposure.

m.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html
'Three minutes of nothing': Herald reporter reflects on PM encounter

His questions and her answers:

Two visits in six weeks to one of the country's most marginal constituencies – is she getting worried?
"I'm very clear that this is a crucial election for this country."

Plymouth is feeling the effects of military cuts. Will she guarantee to protect the city from further pain?
"I'm very clear that Plymouth has a proud record of connection with the armed forces."

How will your Brexit plan make Plymouth better off?
"I think there is a better future ahead for Plymouth and for the whole of the UK."

Will you promise to sort out our transport links?
"I'm very clear that connectivity is hugely important for Plymouth and the South West generally."

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-worst-performing-advanced-economy-world-post-brexit-slump-election-pound-sterling-a7766286.html
UK now the worst-performing advanced economy in the world after post-Brexit vote slump

Canada became the last G7 nation to report figures on Wednesday, confirming the UK’s position at the bottom of the list

Brexit is going well isn't it?

TM thinks most voters lack critical thinking skills, the ability to see through her lies or simply don't care enough to question her. That's the only explanation I can come up with for that Plymouth interview, and similar responses / set ups of her Grand Tour.

Whilst that may apply to quite a few it absolutely doesn't apply to all and I feel a gentle snowball of disillusionment sweeping over the nation.

Like the tranquilizers are starting to wear off.

Agree bigly on good news about zero hours contracts workers' unions starting.

Has TM been 'Stepford wived'? Like Trump, the company that one keeps can affect one's thinking and speech.

Remainers do still have reasons to vote Labour. Especially in a marginal with the Tories

That's my reluctant logic too, I was all set to vote lib dem, having done it once already!

We shall see, how it works out.

Peter‏*@phfffft*

Someone needs to start a "lonely Tory" Tumblr page. #BBCDebate

I actually feel sorry for Rudd with this picture.

I feel a gentle snowball of disillusionment sweeping over the nation.
Like the tranquilizers are starting to wear off.

Jim Pickard‏*@PickardJE*
Perhaps hallucinating but think I heard Tories who promised £350m on the side of a bus now claiming the "magic money tree" doesn't exist.

You remember the Leaver who said she voted Leave because of the £350 million pledge asking the question to Theresa May on C4 on Monday and getting the answer she did. She wasn't impressed by May's answer by the look on her face but obviously didn't want to press the issue either. I think the lack of a straight answer was enough.

This thread by Peter North is very good: mobile.twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/869945834099666944

woman12345

Are you me ??

Remainers do still have reasons to vote Labour. Especially in a marginal with the Tories

That's my reluctant logic too, I was all set to vote lib dem, having done it once already!

I could have written that.

Our Labour candidate leaflet managed to not mention Brexit at all, which given it's importance to me was hardly encouraging. But the bottom line is it would take a miracle to return a LibDem MP in this seat, and I'd rather see a non-Tory government of any stripe. I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour.

In their favour, the candidate is as local as they come - her Dad drove a local bus for years. I have a strong dislike of parachuted candidates. I think they highlight a particular weakness in the UK system where people vote for rosettes rather than policies.

I think they highlight a particular weakness in the UK system where people vote for rosettes rather than policies.

Who knows, maybe this is the year we learn to do things differently. I heard a lot of common ground with the non tories on the TV debate last night. Rudd and the BF candidate interrupted/attacked Corbyn, but that didn't happen from the others.

Just had all 3 leaflets delivered:
Lib Dem one was out earlier, and they do have lovely very locally active candidates.
No brexit mentioned in labour either, but local candidate and promises to feed, educate, employ and house people which seems like a good idea.
Green party leaflet has no brexit either, but they seem to be campaigning hard in this tory area.
Tory one already looks like a collectors' item. Slogan is 'Standing with Teresa' and the only non caucasian faces are on the sinister section on a non tory gov. They would make interesting media studies case studies material, with the tory one using a tabloid style, which might alienate some voters.

I think they highlight a particular weakness in the UK system where people vote for rosettes rather than policies.

Who knows, maybe this is the year we learn to do things differently.

For this election, no. I think there is a lot of tactical voting going on. Maybe if a hung Parliament is the result, then we might see a change.

Red I linked to that article about the Plymouth interview on another thread. It's shocking. It's as though TM is so terrified of saying something 'wrong' that she literally doesn't say anything. Does she really think that nobody is going to notice?

Just watched it MrsHooliesCardigan, is this called gish garble? She looks lonely in the photos.

@faisalislam
Remember to send in screenshots of targeted political ads for #invisibleelection project [email protected]

My neighbour usually has a Labour poster at election time (no chance of winning here) but has LD this time.

I went to see Keir Starmer talk about Brexit recently (from a legal pov rather than Labour) and came away feeling better - until I remembered he wasn't in charge. He spoke about how devastated he was by the result, especially for his children, that I felt hopeful he would work for the best deal possible. He has a reason to do so.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

List of the opinion polls for the GE.

There is something striking for the last week or so (since break for the bombing). Here are the Cons:
YouGov/Times 42%, Survey Monkey 44%, Kantar 43%, YouGov Model 41%, ICM/Guardian 45%, YouGov Model 42%, Survation 43%, YouGov/Times 43%, ICM/Sun 46%, ComRes 46%, Orb/Telegraph 44%, SurveyMonkey 44%, YouGov/Times 43%, Opinium/Observer 45%, Panelbase/The Sunday Times 48%.

UKIP get 4% in just about everyone.

There isn't a lot of movement here.

Its just the balance between the LDs and Labour that is changing.

Here is the Lab and LD breakdowns:
YouGov/Times 39%/7% (46%), Survey Monkey 38%/6% (44%), Kantar 33%/11% (44%), YouGov Model 38%/9% (47%), ICM/Guardian 33%/8% (41%), YouGov Model 38%/9% (47%), Survation 37%/8% (45%), YouGov/Times 36%/9% (45%), ICM/Sun 32%/8% (40%), ComRes 34%/8% (42%), Orb/Telegraph 38%/7% (45%), SurveyMonkey 36%/6% (42%), YouGov/Times 38%/10% (48%), Opinium/Observer 35%/7% (42%), Panelbase/The Sunday Times 33%/7% (40%).

That is something that is important. Polls are going to have great difficulty representing this if Lab / LD thing is pretty much localised by constituency. They do so many representatives per region instead. If they happen to pick more people in more LD seats, then what happens? I don't think they adjust for this in polls. But I would suggest they would in a model based on polling.

This is where if a lot of people do decide to tactically vote its going to have an impact; and this is where a model might pick it up but not a poll. If I'm right and this really is shaping up to be an 'anti-May' campaign rather than a vote for Lab / LD, then something which looks like a volatile LD/Lab vote would appear in the figures. Especially if voters really were being volatile in behaviour. I'd also say that there looks to have been a 'squeeze' on the LD vote. Again this probably would fit with this pattern of an anti-May vote, with the LDs simply being the smaller party and the campaign being modelled more as a Corbyn v May battle.

The YouGov/Times figures are interesting in respect of that:
30/31 May - Con 42% Lab 39% LD 7%
25/26 May - Con 43% Lab 36% LD 9%
24/25 May - Con 43% Lab 38% LD 10%

Compare with the YouGov Model
23 - 29 May - Con 42% Lab 38% LD 9%
24 - 30 May - Con 41% Lab 38% LD 9%

The detail of the YouGov/Times polling seems to show a slight up tick in the transfer of vote from the Cons to both the LDs and Lab in the last few they have done. That split seems a little all over the place though.

I think that's probably where they are headed with the logic. Whether that's right remains to be seen. I think I'd go so far as to say, that's its a really important consideration and its not being shown in the polls, but whether its effect is significant enough I'm yet to be convinced.

The Lab/LD split would need to be quite a bit higher than the Con vote alone for a hung parliament to make up for the problem of the split vote. (Remember the Con share also covers Scotland and the Lab/LD share of the vote there is a lot lower). The SNP would need a good showing. How UKIP affects things with where they are standing is also important. (again something that perhaps wouldn't show well in polls but might be represented in model).

A 'lock down' on immigration and socially conservative is a pitch for those SE voters and a pitch for those Leave Labour. It might backfire in remainy Con seats regardless of whether Lab or LD is second. But there is more seats to be won in the SE and with Labour leave.

Interestingly, that's what my Constituency is. And that's exactly what YouGov's model is seemingly suggesting. All these are Remainy Con: Hastings and Rye -> Lean Labour. Oxford West and Abingdon -> Tossup. Lewes -> Tossup. Twickenham -> Likely LD. Richmond Park -> Tossup Bath -> Tossup. This is where the YouGov poll might fall down. Its tipping these LD I think on its count up. They are so finely balanced.

Of course Lord Ashcroft has every single one of these as a Con Win (including mine). Some quite comfortably.

The Cons have been trying to scare liberal Cons with Corbyn. Yet have decided to stop doing this apparently, because its not working (or perhaps is having an adverse affect). If there is a strategy shift to Brexit in the last week will this help or hinder with Remainy Cons? Or do they really think they have them in the bag?

And hello, what's this?

(((Dan Hodges)))‏*@DPJHodges* (Mail on Sunday)
Being told LDs will definitely lose seats overall. Farron now in real fight to save his seat. If they can't come back now, when will they?

Its not a case of that though. Its not that people don't like the LDs. Its Brexit plus May v Corbyn. Its a polarisation and collapse of the centre as people have been told its one or the other. The centre still exists, but its voice is not being heard nor can it get it out.

Oxford West and Abingdon -> Tossup.
Definitely not Labour. Hopefully LibDem.