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Brexit

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2017 22:39

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

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Redact · 07/05/2017 14:14

Have been dipping in and out of your threads. Was coming on to post for the first time on these threads regarding the Guardian article that Kaija has linked about the influence of external factors in our democracy. Frightening!

prettybird · 07/05/2017 14:23

Brexit and the Indyref has given the Orange Order renewed vigour, draping themselves in the Union flag and defending Queen & Country against the nasty Catholic apostates. Sad

Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 14:32

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woman12345 · 07/05/2017 14:37

It's like the Reformation and Brexit never happened: get over it,you won.Grin
Nationalism and sectarianism never make a good mix. And that great article outlines, amongst other things, funding streams.
The evangelical Christians in the US are Trump's foot soldiers too.
Same difference with the bowler hatted idiots over here.

prettybird · 07/05/2017 14:44

The irony is that it is the Independence supports (which are not just the SNP) who are accused of being nasty nationalists and the British nationalists who are simply being patriotic ConfusedSad

prettybird · 07/05/2017 14:46

"Supporters", not "supports" Autocorrect strikes again Blush

SwedishEdith · 07/05/2017 15:01

This is interesting re the Macron email leak.

[[http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/06/did-macron-outsmart-campaign-hackers]

Did Macron Outsmart Campaign Hackers?

"Meanwhile, Wikileaks jumped on the document dump, but didn’t seem to be familiar with the material in it. Responding to the Macron statement that some of the items were bogus, Wikileaks tweeted, “We have not yet discovered fakes in #MacronLeaks & we are very skeptical that the Macron campaign is faster than us.”
Ah, but there’s the rub. As reported by The Daily Beast, part of the Macron campaign strategy against Fancy Bear (also known as Pawn Storm and Apt28) was to sign on to the phishing pages and plant bogus information.
“You can flood these [phishing] addresses with multiple passwords and log-ins, true ones, false ones, so the people behind them use up a lot of time trying to figure them out,” Mounir Mahjoubi, the head of Macron’s digital team, told The Daily Beast for its earlier article on this subject."

prettybird · 07/05/2017 15:27

From that Daily Beast article....

"Macron, by contrast, is favored by those who want a strong European Union .....looking to the future rather than clinging to the fearful and fictional nostalgia promulgated by Le Pen."

Sound familiar?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 16:08

Overseas Territories - French Election Results

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/presidentielle-decouvrez-les-premiers-resultats-des-territoires-d-outre-mer-et-d-amerique-du-nord-590f1510cd702b5fbe6e48b88_

Note:
French voters in North America are around 90% Macron far higher than elsewhere

  • OUTRE-MER* Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon : Macron, 63,3% / Le Pen, 36,7 % 
Saint-Barth : Macron, 58,4 % / Le Pen, 41,6 % 
Saint-Martin : Macron, 67,6 % / Le Pen, 32,4 % 
Guadeloupe : Macron, 75,1 % / Le Pen, 24,9 % 
Martinique : Macron, 77,5 % / Le Pen, 22,5 % 
Guyane : Macron, 65 % / Le Pen, 35 % ETATS-UNIS New York : Macron, 94,7% / Le Pen, 5,3 % 
Chicago / Midwest : Macron, 92% / Le Pen, 8%
Boston : Macron, 95,7% / Le Pen, 4,3 %

CANADA Ottawa et Montréal : Macron, 90% / Le Pen, 10 %
BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 16:09

Don't get too excited: France itself will come later

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 16:11

New York & Boston evidently don't like fascists

woman12345 · 07/05/2017 16:15

NY & Boston evidently don't like fascists
Wonder why? Any French elections experts know how overseas votes correlate with national ones?
Lucky french ex pats getting votes and all, democracy must be nice, maybe we should try it.

prettybird · 07/05/2017 16:17

Interesting that is the overseas "colonies" which are (relatively) more supportive of Le Pen and the "expat" communities which are overwhelmingly Macron.

Maybe because the former are feeling vulnerable and want someone who swathes herself in "patriotism" sound familiar? Wink, whereas the latter are elite citizens of nowhere more internationalist, having moved abroad for positive reasons (whatever they may be).

Mistigri · 07/05/2017 16:21

Belgian press is reporting >60% for macron on the basis of polling today. Keep everything crossed for us.

woman12345 · 07/05/2017 16:25

Everything's crossed, misti.MLP's dad's not voting for her though.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 16:27

I bet Misti is envious that French expats keep can vote like this

It will be very interesting to see votes in the UK and other EU countries.
London has the 6th largest French population of any city in the world - for now ...

The biggest French cities (2012 figures)
Paris - 2.3m.
Marseille - 870k.
Lyon - 490k
Toulouse - 460k
Nice - 345k

LONDON 300-400k

OlennasWimple · 07/05/2017 16:46

Boston voted overwhelmingly for Trump. The French voters supporting Macron presumably live in the wealthy, Clinton-supporting suburbs

It's quite something when your own dad comes out and says that you aren't really up to the job, isn't it?

prettybird · 07/05/2017 16:55

Ummmm Confused - OlennasWimple - I think you've got that wrong. Boston voted overwhelmingly for Clinton - over 80% for Clinton versus 13% for Trump.

Massachusetts as a whole was 60% for Clinton Confused

Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 17:01

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Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 17:02

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Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 17:04

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Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 17:09

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woman12345 · 07/05/2017 17:47

DT has Macron leading at 5.32pm

OlennasWimple · 07/05/2017 17:52

prettybird - sorry, my mistake, brain fart moment... Blush

Does anyone know why the French vote on a Sunday, by the way? It seems so alien to how we do it in the UK. Presumably it's to encourage turn-out, though I would have thought that - in the past at least - church attendance would interfere