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Brexit

Westministenders: Up Shit Creek without Wifi.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2017 22:12

Theresa May is being held hostage.

There is mounting evidence that all is not as it seems at CCHQ. It makes you don your tin foil hat and ask who is in charge.

Theresa May was a Remainer. She suddenly abandoned that when she became leader. Her proclamation of what would follow next seems directly at odds with her actions. This is not her fault. This is her plea for help and way of telling the outside world that she is a prisoner of Brexit.

At first it seemed like perhaps she had been locked up with Brexiteers for too long. She seemed to be developing a survival strategy which seemed totally irrational to outsiders. The signs of intimidation everywhere though. Instead of criticising those who did this, May joined in with them or was complicit in her silence.

Things are now taking a sinister turn. After repeatedly saying ‘No Election’, May crumbled and called one. She has now not been seen in public since. Instead she is being wheeled out at closed events to the party faithful. They are being dressed as mixing with the people but they are no such thing. The plebs in attendance are set to ‘mute’ or locked out completely.

Behold the coming of the May-Bot. She seeks to ‘prevent tourism’ in Wales. She now no longer knows which town she is currently in. (Much less have a plan for Brexit). She accuses an organisation set up to use its numbers to get better deals, of doing what it is supposed to, except she calls this ‘ganging up’.

May is not transported in a bus. Oh no. Instead she travels by the Bond Villian’s choice of transport; the helicopter.

More worrying still is the mantra ‘Strong and Stable’ repeated as many times as possible. It is almost as if, if she says it enough she might start believing it. She certainly has got her party members brainwashed and acting as if they were Zombies. Who needs ‘Spice’ when you are a Conservative? They ‘Believe’…

The ploy is to hoodwink people into voting for May instead of the Tories. CCHQ have removed Conservative branding from literature and campaigning in the North. The party are still too toxic, but May apparently scores well especially against Corbyn. Ironically however negatively I think of Corbyn he does display something May increasingly seems incapable of: humanity.

Many people might think of May as some sort of dictator figure. Its true. Every vote for her strengthens her hand. But not for Brexit negotiations. Mainly because Brexit is without merit or reward. Not unless you hold power. This is part 2 of the grab for it.

This is May’s power paradox. SHE is not powerful. She isn’t persuasive. She isn’t a healer of divides. She relies on authoritarian measures to get her way. This isn’t a sign of her personal power, but a sign of her personal weakness. She is sly and sneaky in her methods rather than compelling others to come along with her. They are doing so more because they dislike the alternative in Corbyn less.

She is not stable. She has lurched from one drama to the next, and has repeatedly been forced to back down from what she wanted. Nothing says ‘stability’ and ‘good leadership’ like appointing Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. The lady is not so much for turning and leading, but is already staggering around dizzy whilst blindfolded playing pin the tail on the donkey. And Christ she’s got a lot of them in her Government. Including the numpty who decided to do a live event and broadcast it in an area with no wi-fi. Mind you, that is soon to be the entire country. Or what’s left of it.

She had said she had a mandate for Brexit and did not need this to be approved by the country as she was getting on with the job. This is why we are having a General Election to give her a mandate…

Not only that, but there is a lurking question here that should not be forgotten. Who is pulling May’s strings and making her dance as her actions are not natural? Every puppet show has puppet masters behind the scenes of the stage, hiding in the shadows.

They will dispense with their toy once she has outlived her usefulness like every good baddie.

Is she the one we should be most fearful of?

Hold on tight this is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next two years. Just how many casualties will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit?

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SwedishEdith · 30/04/2017 22:26

Interesting Twitter thread

Judith Knott‏ @judithmknott 21m21 minutes ago

OK I've now read it. Some is already in Shipman Sunday Times piece. But this is much worse. I'll focus on what's not in Shipman:

Juncker not easily shocked. But clearly visibly shocked by dinner at No10. "10 times more sceptical than before." 2/n

Context: UK has blocked agrt of EU mid-term budget settlement, pleading purdah and inability to bind successor. Not gone down well. 3/n

Light relief: Davis over dinner recounts recent success at ECJ against May on data. Did not amuse his boss. He won't last after GE? 4/n

First big shock: May wants to start with citizens' rights as early as end June. But UK law clear: they'll be t/a 3rd country citizens. 5/n

Process: she wants absolute secrecy. EU can't do that. 6/n

May attitude: "brexit's going to be success". Surprised when Juncker had different view - seemed she hadn't heard this view so plainly. 7/n

V interesting (and needs more work): she thinks this is like "protocol 36" to Lisbon treaty. Paper exercise with little practical change.8/n

This rang Juncker's alarm bells. Brexit v different from that exercise. 9/n

Money (sit down): she said we didn't owe a penny - it's not in treaty. Davis added we'd be out of ECJ so EU couldn't enforce it anyhow. 10/n

Juncker countered: ok then no trade deal. And process will be different: each Member State will need to agree. 11/n

Hence Juncker's profound shock, phone call to Merkel 7am next day. He thinks >50% likely no deal. 12/ends

Simon the Stylite‏
@Sime0nStylites

This is the most extraordinary thing I've heard in this whole sorry process.

Could turn the election.

Peregrina · 30/04/2017 22:34

Could turn the election.

Which way? Some people will say, Oh goody-goody we are out of the EU. Those wonderful global trade deals await. (Cue more Asian & African immigrants,as a by-product, which some will definitely not have voted for.)

NinonDeLenclos · 30/04/2017 22:35

Yeah that's right she's the ex hooker who licked Osborne's ear. Complete fruitloop.

Good work Swedish - very interesting.

SwedishEdith · 30/04/2017 22:40

Don't know Peregrina - wishful thinking, I imagine. Lots of people already decided who they'll vote for and disengaged.

NinonDeLenclos · 30/04/2017 22:41

It won't turn the election. No deal is what a lot of Brexiters want and a large number won't understand the implications anyway.

woman12345 · 30/04/2017 22:42

Ninon all the more likely that she would know a lot, and not be believed, perhaps?

Lively thread Swedish.thanks.

It's so embarrassing apart from anything.

Arrogance and ignorance seem to be vote winners right now, sadly.

missmoon · 30/04/2017 22:43

"Could turn the election." People seem so disengaged, they just want to forget about Brexit and not think about it again. It's so frustrating...

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2017 22:47

Swedish, it won't turn the election.

I think May is that delusional and separate from reality. Her echo chamber is tiny and people are kept away from her.

May will only go, if the papers decide she's a liability. There is no sign of that at present. Indeed she helps The Mail's nasty little agenda.

I don't see it changing the result in any scenario.

Why?

Corbyn.

He just brings out a negative response too often in people.

The only other alternative is the LDs suddenly become the most amazing thing on the entire planet and win by a shock land slide and make some person who placed a bet on it, very very rich indeed.

Frankly I'm not as delusional as May and don't think this likely somehow.

But yes, I am starting to veer very much towards the no deal scenario. Especially since YouGov's poll out tonight

Theresa May has said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". Which of the following best reflects your view? :

No deal is better than a bad deal - if the EU doesn't offer Britain a good deal, we should not sign any trade deal with them 46% (25% amongst remainers 68% amongst leavers)

A bad deal is better than no deal - we should sign the best trade deal we can with the European Union, even if it is not as good as we hoped for 22% (splits 37% amongst Remainers and 10 amongst Leavers)

Neither 14% (22% Remain 8% Leave)
Don't know 18% (16% Remain 14% Leave)

As far as polls go I think this one of the most depressing.

It was also interesting that May was asked about making preparations for queues at Dover today. She brushed it off.

What happens and who is blamed if there are queues at Dover? How volatile do politics become at this point? There is real danger in this, as the UK could end up with no food on the shelves. That's real revolution territory.

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NinonDeLenclos · 30/04/2017 22:50

I think she's probably made it up tbh - when I said not remotely credible I did mean that literally.

Not so much revolution as civil unrest and general chaos.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2017 22:52

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/whats-happening-britain-worries-me-10331148
'What's happening in Britain worries me': Tony Blair reveals why he's returning to politics 20 years after 1997 victory

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woman12345 · 30/04/2017 22:52

And the martial law May has been itching for for years.

SwedishEdith · 30/04/2017 22:54

For clarity, I'm not saying it'll "turn the election" - I'm quoting the tweet.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2017 22:59

It time to get back to that 2019 stock up on tins of tomatoes plan.

What do you think they'll get on the black market after rationing starts?

I'm hearing May is headed for the NW tomorrow. Bank holiday ruined.

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SwedishEdith · 30/04/2017 22:59

I think it's too early to say re deal or no deal unless May gets told to walk away early. What people think now as compared to then will change.

Gumpendorf · 30/04/2017 23:09

May and co thinking Brexit is going to be a paper exercise with v little change goes quite a way to explain the lack of urgency and planning.

I'm pretty sure the Brexiters will treat no agreement as a way of bringing the country together: Dunkirk spirit, rationing queues.

Meanwhile Cameron parades his shepherd's hut....

HashiAsLarry · 30/04/2017 23:11

The only other alternative is the LDs suddenly become the most amazing thing on the entire planet and win by a shock land slide
Made me laugh rtb. Even they don't think that will happen Grin

I can bake a good brick, maybe I'll start stockpiling just in case.

unicornsIlovethem · 30/04/2017 23:12

Will rationing and martial law work in an age of 24 hour news and satellite communication? I don't mean that they'll get themselves sorted out and address the issue but the outcome could be worse - DEC type appeals and the Red Cross or UN running good camps instead - it would be a very clear example of a failed state.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2017 23:42

Judith Knott's Tweet about the dinner fits in quite well with the Sunday Times article I posted - which is from their political correspondent

The tweet does give an interesting explanation about the lackadaisical, amateurish approach so far by the govt:
like much of the public, they think leaving the EU is about as complicated as swapping energy providers for a better deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2017 23:52

I'm just old enough to remember when the UK had to ask the IMF for an emergency loan
That was also because a UK govt (Labour) became delusional about what it could do - then reality struck with a bang.

The IMF required swingeing cuts plus iirc tax hikes, both overriding Labour's manifesto.
However, there was no food rationing or consumer shortages of any kind (for those that had money)

I also remember Heath's 3-day week and Patrick Jenkins exhorting everyone to clean their teeth in the dark, to save electricity Smile

So, UK govt's of both parties have done very stupid things in the past (admittedly not this stupid) - and the lower half of the income range have paid for it

Peregrina · 01/05/2017 00:38

It was also interesting that May was asked about making preparations for queues at Dover today. She brushed it off.

The blame will attach to the French. That's the easy bit to predict.
Remember though the oil tanker strikes of a few years back? The country was in danger of beginning to go without food, because the goods couldn't be moved into the shops. How will May tackle the same effect? She's not good at thinking on her feet.

SwedishEdith · 01/05/2017 00:38

Another interpretation of that dinner.

Today's FAZ report on May's disastrous dinner with Juncker - briefed by senior Commission sources - is absolutely damning.

Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 56m56 minutes ago

  1. May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems; but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.

  2. May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be reelected as PM.

  3. It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.

  4. May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.

  5. EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.

  6. Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care.

  7. Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal, Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.

  8. May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks; all confidential until the end of the process.

  9. Commission said impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states & European Parliament, so documents must be published.

  10. EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.

  11. Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".

  12. May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.

  13. She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.

  14. May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.

  15. ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit

  16. "The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)

  17. May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.

  18. Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club

  19. Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.

  20. ...leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in process (a point that Berlin had made repeatedly before).

  21. "I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told May as he left

  22. Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself

  23. Merkel quickly reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in Britain still have illusions" comment

  24. FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?

  25. Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.

  26. What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless.

  27. The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.

  28. Presumably as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27.

  29. Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10 should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak.

30/30) Sorry for the long thread. And a reminder: full credit for all the above reporting on the May/Juncker dinner goes to the FAZ.

Alberto Nardelli‏Verified account @AlbertoNardelli 6m6 minutes
Extraordinary

Jeremy Cliffe‏Verified account @JeremyCliffe 4m4 minutes ago
Horrifying

Peregrina · 01/05/2017 00:47

FAZ? The German news site? I have just looked it up.

SwedishEdith · 01/05/2017 00:55

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung I presume.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2017 00:55

I can honestly say not a word of that surprised me. It's been written on the wall for a long time.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2017 01:00

medium.com/@stewartwood6887/theresa-mays-mistaken-precedent-for-a-brexit-based-on-cherry-picking-1e2e6a3b9985
THERESA MAY’S MISTAKEN PRECEDENT FOR A BREXIT BASED ON CHERRY-PICKING

Dated 25 Feb with the final para

Listen out in the next few months for the sound of Britain’s Brexit plan crashing onto the rocks, with a Prime Minister at the helm convinced she can repeat the trick right up to the moment that the boat starts to run aground.

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