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Brexit

Westministenders: Up Shit Creek without Wifi.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2017 22:12

Theresa May is being held hostage.

There is mounting evidence that all is not as it seems at CCHQ. It makes you don your tin foil hat and ask who is in charge.

Theresa May was a Remainer. She suddenly abandoned that when she became leader. Her proclamation of what would follow next seems directly at odds with her actions. This is not her fault. This is her plea for help and way of telling the outside world that she is a prisoner of Brexit.

At first it seemed like perhaps she had been locked up with Brexiteers for too long. She seemed to be developing a survival strategy which seemed totally irrational to outsiders. The signs of intimidation everywhere though. Instead of criticising those who did this, May joined in with them or was complicit in her silence.

Things are now taking a sinister turn. After repeatedly saying ‘No Election’, May crumbled and called one. She has now not been seen in public since. Instead she is being wheeled out at closed events to the party faithful. They are being dressed as mixing with the people but they are no such thing. The plebs in attendance are set to ‘mute’ or locked out completely.

Behold the coming of the May-Bot. She seeks to ‘prevent tourism’ in Wales. She now no longer knows which town she is currently in. (Much less have a plan for Brexit). She accuses an organisation set up to use its numbers to get better deals, of doing what it is supposed to, except she calls this ‘ganging up’.

May is not transported in a bus. Oh no. Instead she travels by the Bond Villian’s choice of transport; the helicopter.

More worrying still is the mantra ‘Strong and Stable’ repeated as many times as possible. It is almost as if, if she says it enough she might start believing it. She certainly has got her party members brainwashed and acting as if they were Zombies. Who needs ‘Spice’ when you are a Conservative? They ‘Believe’…

The ploy is to hoodwink people into voting for May instead of the Tories. CCHQ have removed Conservative branding from literature and campaigning in the North. The party are still too toxic, but May apparently scores well especially against Corbyn. Ironically however negatively I think of Corbyn he does display something May increasingly seems incapable of: humanity.

Many people might think of May as some sort of dictator figure. Its true. Every vote for her strengthens her hand. But not for Brexit negotiations. Mainly because Brexit is without merit or reward. Not unless you hold power. This is part 2 of the grab for it.

This is May’s power paradox. SHE is not powerful. She isn’t persuasive. She isn’t a healer of divides. She relies on authoritarian measures to get her way. This isn’t a sign of her personal power, but a sign of her personal weakness. She is sly and sneaky in her methods rather than compelling others to come along with her. They are doing so more because they dislike the alternative in Corbyn less.

She is not stable. She has lurched from one drama to the next, and has repeatedly been forced to back down from what she wanted. Nothing says ‘stability’ and ‘good leadership’ like appointing Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. The lady is not so much for turning and leading, but is already staggering around dizzy whilst blindfolded playing pin the tail on the donkey. And Christ she’s got a lot of them in her Government. Including the numpty who decided to do a live event and broadcast it in an area with no wi-fi. Mind you, that is soon to be the entire country. Or what’s left of it.

She had said she had a mandate for Brexit and did not need this to be approved by the country as she was getting on with the job. This is why we are having a General Election to give her a mandate…

Not only that, but there is a lurking question here that should not be forgotten. Who is pulling May’s strings and making her dance as her actions are not natural? Every puppet show has puppet masters behind the scenes of the stage, hiding in the shadows.

They will dispense with their toy once she has outlived her usefulness like every good baddie.

Is she the one we should be most fearful of?

Hold on tight this is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next two years. Just how many casualties will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit?

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Thread gallery
23
woman12345 · 03/05/2017 18:00

But denied here:
inews.co.uk/essentials/news/election-expenses-scandal-cps-delayed/

HPFA · 03/05/2017 18:03

twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/859799268785311744

David Allen Green's always struck me as the kind of Remainer who would be perfectly happy with a sensible Leave position. I think I might join the rest of the thread in turning to spirits (I'm teetotal)

mybrainhurtsalot · 03/05/2017 18:04

Is anyone looking at the gambling odds for tactical voting? In my constituency the Conservative incumbent is expected to retain the seat, but Labour have much better odds than the Lib Dems.

m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics

Motheroffourdragons · 03/05/2017 18:10

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

BiglyBadgers · 03/05/2017 18:12

I just heard a bit of the May war speech on R4 and it is scary stuff. She is setting this up as an us and them conflict instead of negotiations. It might play well with hardcore brexiteers who are delusional enough to think she can give the EU a bloody nose, but it will get her nowhere with the EU and just shoots us all in the feet.

Grifone · 03/05/2017 18:12

Nigel Farage accuses the EU of stirring dissident republicanism in Northern Ireland and encouraging a United Ireland. Poor Nigel - he really doesn't understand the issues does he? 🙄
www.todayfm.com/Nigel-Farage-Hits-Out-At-EU-For-Stoking-The-Fires-Of-Nationalism-In-Northern-Ireland

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2017 18:15

Jeremy Cliffe‏*@JeremyCliffe*

This is unhinged and pathetically parochial. The EU institutions and the EU27 could not care less how big the Tory majority will be.

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HashiAsLarry · 03/05/2017 18:17

Anyone else hope the dinner with junker and barnier did actually go well and her speech today contained a secret message to let them know we've sailed up shit creek and ask them to send a paddle?

Mistigri · 03/05/2017 18:20

Lol hashi

This is probably the moment to admit that my theory about the maybot leading her loony wing up the garden path on her way to a soft brexit was .... er ..... well, completely and utterly wrong.

Tbh, I think that she is ill. Her judgement seems so poor and she is being kept away from the public in a way that suggests that her handlers are concerned.

Figmentofmyimagination · 03/05/2017 18:20

She is a disgrace.

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2017 18:31

Should have just said " u ok Hun."

lalalonglegs · 03/05/2017 18:35

Oh dear, Misti, I was clinging to your theory despite all the evidence to the contrary. Sad I will have to put all my eggs in hashi's basket instead. Yes, it's a secret message - accusing EU officials of meddling in the election is a safe word. TM's chilling and threatening tone was a stroke of genius... maybe?

woman12345 · 03/05/2017 18:52

@faisalislam

Check out UK Brexit Secretary D. Davis as he emerges from Number 10 just ahead of PM's speech accusing EU of election interference:

(DD looks very happy)

BigChocFrenzy · 03/05/2017 18:54

I was reflecting that May and I were both born in 1956 - the year of the Suez Crisis.

Suez was a fundamental turning point:
The Uk was slapped down - in that case by the USA - for military and imperial delusions.
Britain was humiliated and forced to accept that it was no longer a world power who could blithely invade other nations for their resources.
(Unfortunately, most UK govts since have chosen to be the poodle of a US superpower who invades countries for oil)

In decades to come, Brexit may be regarded as a comparable turning point to Suez

  • this time when UK delusions about her power as a trading nation were also burst.
DoNotBringLulu · 03/05/2017 19:00

Delurking....somebody must be advising May Confused I have been hoping there is some kind of game plan, keep tory party together then when she has a majority like Mistigri says, go for softer Brexit.

I've been reading a book by Ian Dunt: Brexit - What the Hell Happens Next and he describes the worst case scenario of crashing out of the EU without a deal, and I cannot see that any Prime Minister would be so irresponsible to just walk away.... Sad

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2017 19:01

Peter Walker‏ @peterwalker99
Hang on, did Theresa May just claim the tough EU talk on Brexit is a deliberate plot to affect the election result? Does she mean that?

Simon Cox‏*@SimonFRCox*

May's #1 is "look like a fighter".
So winning is a problem - bc it ends the fight. We know this from her Home Office days. Thread. 1/n
In 2011 May claimed immigration judges were acting illegally, incl blocking man's deportation bc of his cat. 2/
www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2011/oct/04/theresa-may-human-rights-cat-video?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I asked Home Office if they challenged these 3 decisions: they said yes - but in 2 cases accepted deportation was wrong. May had mislead 3/
May #1 aim wasnt changing judge behaviour. It was "look like a fighter". Her staff leaked 3 cases to press. And she "took on the judges" 4/
Psychology teaches: fighting "poverty" or "disease" is never as interesting for onlookers as fighting a human enemy.May always has one 5/
How did May fight immigration judges? She changed rules on human rights cases: she reinterpreted what the Human Rights Convention says 6/
May's lawyers must have told her: changing rules wont get what she claimed to want, bc ECHR trumps immigration rules 7/
May acknowledged this saying: "if my rules dont change judges, I will ask Parliament to make a law." She wanted the image of "fighter" 8/
Immigration judges did what she knew law required them to do. Tory press claimed they had "defied" her:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9890093/Theresa-Mays-tough-immigration-rules-defied-by-top-judge.html
9/
So, May delayed by 2 years her supposed strategy of narrowing human rights defenses for migrants. Why? 10/
Exh. 2: Othman's case. Aka Abu Qatada. May said his deportation was her top priority. But she took 3 years : why? 11/
Othman opposed deportation to Jordan bc he wd be tried based on statement from a man who'd been tortured before giving it (& later died) 12/
2008: UK Court of Appeal blocks deport: illegal to risk conviction based on torture. 2009 House of Lrds reverses
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Qatada
Othman applies to European Court of Human Rights, so he's still in UK (locked up) when Cons win 2010 election & May becomes Home Sec. 13/
May has 2 options.
Fight case in ECHR.
Get Jordan to not use torture evid, removing factual base for Othman's ECHR case & deport 14/
May fought Othman's case. For 2 yrs. She lost (no surprise: UK courts had disagreed). So then she got Jordan to not use torture evid 15/
And Othman left, voluntarily. Everything suggests she cd have got that result 3 yrs before. Why didnt she? 16/
Was it bc May wanted to win legal pt in ECHR for future cases? Maybe: but House of Lords was on Gov side. So hardly a priority 17/
Maybe May wanted to help Jordan convict Othman on the murder charge. (Without the crucial torture evid he was later acquitted). 18/
But May's claimed priority was to get Othman out: not abstact legal pts or Jordanian conviction. She chose to delay getting Othman out 19/
Keeping Othman in UK served May's need for enemies: him and his lawyers. Bad people she can battle for the British. 20/
Enemy #3 Human rights lawyers asking courts to get Gov to investigate claims of UK Army murder & torture in Iraq 21/
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tory-conference-speech-applause-attacks-activist-left-wing-human-rights-lawyers-a7346216.html
Enemy #4. UK Human Rights Act. Not a person so less good as enemy. For a decade+ Cons have promised to repeal & replace HRA. May is key 22/
Just like Obamacare, Tories have been unable to write an alternative to HRA. Bc they know any will look worse to voters. 23/
But delay in the change she "wants" is never a big problem for Theresa May.
So. Long. As. People. Think. She. Is. Fighting. 24/
Theresa May has repeatedly said she wants HRA repealed. And repeatedly failed to publish any detailed plans. (Sound familiar?) 25/
Enemy 5#. Non-EEA Migrants. May wrote the rules for 6 years. She headed up department that implements them. She said she wanted fewer 26/
May set target number for migrants: completely of her own choosing. Which she missed, completely.
Why set a target you can't hit? 27/
May makes rules she cant uphold or enforce, and sets targets she can't hit. Why?
Fighting is a great excuse for not delivering change. 28/
So long as May was battling migrants, lawyers & judges, media show her in heroic light. Strong! Doughty! Fighting For You! /29
When pols stop fighting: bc they've won, or given up, or (ssh) compromised, then voters ask "what difference has this made to me?" /30
Enemy No 6. Remainers & EU27. See the anger. See the personalisation. See the "fighting talk". See the lack of a plan.
Classic May. 31/
May doesnt want to talk about her past (that would encourage analysis).She doesnt want to talk in detail about future (encourage debate) 32/
May wants voters' minds on her present fight - & present enemy. What/who ever that is. Today its Juncker. Tomorrow - she'll find one. 33/
May's success depends on Tory press (& TV following) clever selection of real human enemies - as proxies for wars on terror& migrants. 34/
Today:
Abstract enemy - Brexit
Human avatar - Juncker
See how angry she makes people. One can almost feel the spittle from this tweet 35/
May's actions arent entirely performative. Her policies do break up families of British citizens - and of refugees & migrants 36/
May could have brought confidence to the lives of maybe 3 million people who have made UK their home. She didnt want to. 37/
But IMO, May has always put "having a fight" above "making effective decisions & policies". She fears the end of fighting. 38/
May will always be looking for a fight. To distract us from the importang things she's doing - or failing to do. We must remember this. 39/
When May attacks democratic instits & human rights we shd oppose. But smartly: always thinking how to avoid helping her distract. End. 40/40

Boxing her own shadow?

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RedToothBrush · 03/05/2017 19:02

Simon Cox‏**@SimonFRCox* @SimonFRCox*
PS. Why doesnt May want to debate? Because she will come across as a poor fighter. Bad for image.
PPS. Why choose Juncker as enemy when she's fighting election vs Corbyn?
Bc she "fights for nation" (& cant win)

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jaws5 · 03/05/2017 19:04

Maybe I should post this on the Brexit Emotional Support thread, but as this is about today's declaration of war by TM... I have been trying to understand why any PM would choose to be so belligerent and create such bad blood against the EU, creating even more insecurity for EU citizens. The only explanation is that she's using her speech as part of her election campaign to galvanise cheap nationalistic sentiment a la Le Pen. But it's so callous that I'm shocked even by her standards.

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2017 19:06

Maybe I should post this on the Brexit Emotional Support thread, but as this is about today's declaration of war by TM... I have been trying to understand why any PM would choose to be so belligerent and create such bad blood against the EU, creating even more insecurity for EU citizens. The only explanation is that she's using her speech as part of her election campaign to galvanise cheap nationalistic sentiment a la Le Pen. But it's so callous that I'm shocked even by her standards.

The EU seem to be treating it as such... if its any consolation.

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user1486062886 · 03/05/2017 19:07

Just an honest question ? Have any of you any real evidence of what the total pay out (50-100 billion) is for. What does it actually include and can they justified it,The U.K. Must have a many billion due back to them in assets ( property etc) which we must own 1/27th of.

lalalonglegs · 03/05/2017 19:09

Can I offer a crumb of comfort? Katya Adler (I think) was on the BBC news saying that no one in Europe is taking TM's accusations seriously and are simply saying among themselves that it is all part of her electioneering. I like this because (a) it not only shows a sense of diplomacy our own government sadly lacks but (b) it simultaneously and masterfully slaps down TM's attempts to grandstand.

BiglyBadgers · 03/05/2017 19:18

For user... Here is a link to the ft article on the payments. www.ft.com/content/cc7eed42-2f49-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2017 19:19

www.ft.com/content/cc7eed42-2f49-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a
Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn
France and Germany back tougher approach to Britain’s departure obligations

As well as adding €10bn-€15bn of mainly farm- related payments, the commission’s tougher approach denies London a share of assets such as buildings. Significantly, it requires upfront payment for contingent guarantees and loans to countries such as Ukraine and Portugal, with Britain being reimbursed as the loans are repaid.

According to FT calculations, this brings the upfront gross settlement demand to approximately €91bn-€113bn, depending on how Britain’s share is calculated. Over a period of a decade or more, this would be reduced in net terms to roughly €55bn-€75bn as Britain received its share of EU spending and repaid EU loans.

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whatwouldrondo · 03/05/2017 19:23

Listening to May on the radio was like listening to a PM on a war footing. It would only have been appropriate if France had launched a missile at Dover, the only harm that will come to Dover will be as a result of her and her governments lack of planning. It is indeed Trumpian.

In terms of Brexit support after too long I once again have Chukka in my inbox www.facebook.com/OpenBritain/videos/1596568893716762/

BiglyBadgers · 03/05/2017 19:24

..and I can't imagine why you would think we would be due a payment from the EU for any assets we may have contributed to in the past as a member of the EU. Membership payments were made and agreed to. We don't retrospectively get them back now we don't want to be a part of the club and we also don't get to change our mind about agreements that have been made around future payments. I am sure there could be a certain amount of negotiations around exactly how much, but I have always found not being obnoxious to your opposite number helpful when wanting to agree things in your favour Hmm