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Brexit

Westministenders: Up Shit Creek without Wifi.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2017 22:12

Theresa May is being held hostage.

There is mounting evidence that all is not as it seems at CCHQ. It makes you don your tin foil hat and ask who is in charge.

Theresa May was a Remainer. She suddenly abandoned that when she became leader. Her proclamation of what would follow next seems directly at odds with her actions. This is not her fault. This is her plea for help and way of telling the outside world that she is a prisoner of Brexit.

At first it seemed like perhaps she had been locked up with Brexiteers for too long. She seemed to be developing a survival strategy which seemed totally irrational to outsiders. The signs of intimidation everywhere though. Instead of criticising those who did this, May joined in with them or was complicit in her silence.

Things are now taking a sinister turn. After repeatedly saying ‘No Election’, May crumbled and called one. She has now not been seen in public since. Instead she is being wheeled out at closed events to the party faithful. They are being dressed as mixing with the people but they are no such thing. The plebs in attendance are set to ‘mute’ or locked out completely.

Behold the coming of the May-Bot. She seeks to ‘prevent tourism’ in Wales. She now no longer knows which town she is currently in. (Much less have a plan for Brexit). She accuses an organisation set up to use its numbers to get better deals, of doing what it is supposed to, except she calls this ‘ganging up’.

May is not transported in a bus. Oh no. Instead she travels by the Bond Villian’s choice of transport; the helicopter.

More worrying still is the mantra ‘Strong and Stable’ repeated as many times as possible. It is almost as if, if she says it enough she might start believing it. She certainly has got her party members brainwashed and acting as if they were Zombies. Who needs ‘Spice’ when you are a Conservative? They ‘Believe’…

The ploy is to hoodwink people into voting for May instead of the Tories. CCHQ have removed Conservative branding from literature and campaigning in the North. The party are still too toxic, but May apparently scores well especially against Corbyn. Ironically however negatively I think of Corbyn he does display something May increasingly seems incapable of: humanity.

Many people might think of May as some sort of dictator figure. Its true. Every vote for her strengthens her hand. But not for Brexit negotiations. Mainly because Brexit is without merit or reward. Not unless you hold power. This is part 2 of the grab for it.

This is May’s power paradox. SHE is not powerful. She isn’t persuasive. She isn’t a healer of divides. She relies on authoritarian measures to get her way. This isn’t a sign of her personal power, but a sign of her personal weakness. She is sly and sneaky in her methods rather than compelling others to come along with her. They are doing so more because they dislike the alternative in Corbyn less.

She is not stable. She has lurched from one drama to the next, and has repeatedly been forced to back down from what she wanted. Nothing says ‘stability’ and ‘good leadership’ like appointing Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. The lady is not so much for turning and leading, but is already staggering around dizzy whilst blindfolded playing pin the tail on the donkey. And Christ she’s got a lot of them in her Government. Including the numpty who decided to do a live event and broadcast it in an area with no wi-fi. Mind you, that is soon to be the entire country. Or what’s left of it.

She had said she had a mandate for Brexit and did not need this to be approved by the country as she was getting on with the job. This is why we are having a General Election to give her a mandate…

Not only that, but there is a lurking question here that should not be forgotten. Who is pulling May’s strings and making her dance as her actions are not natural? Every puppet show has puppet masters behind the scenes of the stage, hiding in the shadows.

They will dispense with their toy once she has outlived her usefulness like every good baddie.

Is she the one we should be most fearful of?

Hold on tight this is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next two years. Just how many casualties will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
23
NinonDeLenclos · 01/05/2017 22:01

So either the EU is going all out for clearing relocation or clearing houses here would be subject to much stricter EU supervision.

Doesn't say whether changes to the TTFEU treaty would be necessary as has been mooted in the past. (2015 court case established that the ECB didn't have the competence to regulate the securities clearing systems activities and thus couldn't force operators to locate within the Eurozone). EU could legislate to grant the ECB legal authority to oversee the activities of clearing houses.

woman12345 · 01/05/2017 22:02

Yikes ninon thanks. Strong and stable response coming up.Hmm
83 000 jobs.

lalalonglegs · 01/05/2017 22:09

woman - Helen Lewis (of the New Statesman) was on PM this evening analysing Blair's proposed comeback. Her take is that he is mounting a reluctant return as he - and other senior New Labour grandees - had hoped that someone else might pick up the baton. But as no one has shown themselves able to fight their way out of a paper bag has been very willing to stick their head above the parapet, he's decided to do it himself...

woman12345 · 01/05/2017 22:31

And he'll need that police protection lala . Good on him.

His web site:
institute.global/renewing-centre

"We aim to articulate a vision of liberal democracy that can garner substantial popular support, and to push back the destructive approach of populism which offers anger but no real answers.

This new populism may differ in some respects between left and right, but what is remarkable is the convergence between them, especially around isolationism and protectionism, in what is an essentially closed-minded approach to globalisation and its benefits.

We are not a think tank. We are a non-party platform to inform and support those in the active front line of politics, and help them counter short term solutions based on a false ‘populism'. Our purpose is to provide radical but sensible answers to people’s concerns, and create a fact-based dialogue, not one in which emotion supersedes fact".

lalalonglegs · 01/05/2017 22:34

Oh dear, it's not exactly a call to arms Confused (but I suppose that is sort of the point).

woman12345 · 01/05/2017 22:48

Yes, bit wordy, but you know elitists. [lala]

@HuwSayer 7h7 hours ago
#EU thinks #UK will threaten important projects to gain leverage in #Brexit negotiations reports

www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/brexit-grossbritannien-blockiert-ueberpruefung-der-mittelfristigen-haushaltsplanung-a-1145441.html

^New money can not be spent
Negotiation tactics or not, the blockade of financial planning has concrete consequences. Fresh money can now partly not be spent. For example, the EU can not move any new funds into the Africa Trust Fund, whose money is intended to help alleviate the causes of flight on the continent.^

With Le Pen, they must be making sure this is in the EU media this week. And the Financial Times.

NancyWake · 01/05/2017 22:50

Thanks for the heads up Ninon. When the normally equinanmous FT comes up with DM headline: 'Brussels set for power grab on Euro clearing ', you know they're ruffled.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2017 23:16

Forbes: The UK Government Is Completely Deluded About Brexit

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/2/#279b76522c25

"The UK’s eventual exit from the EU is looking more and more likely to be a train wreck.
The Brexiteers in Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration are living in a fantasy world.
And
although May herself comes across as sensible and pragmatic, it now appears that she is as deluded as they are."

"The dinner was a total disaster"
"Releasing details of the dinner to a German newspaper for printing in German only is a slap in the face for May and her team. The Commission, it seems, is very angry indeed.
Jeremy Cliffe, The Economist’s Berlin bureau chief, tweeted the salient points from the FAZ article. They are absolutely damning.
No wonder the Commission is angry"

From Cliffe / FAZ:

"The report points to major communications/briefing problems
Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.

Presumably as a result,
May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27"

"Cliffe's analysis ....implies that May has made a terrible mistake.

She has put hardline Brexiteers in charge of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU and its new trade relationships after Brexit.

They appear to be systematically deceiving her.

As a result, she is not in possession of the true facts.
< she & the Brexiteers refuse to listen to experts who have the facts >

Presumably these wrecking tactics are intended to further the Brexiteers' real aim of a no-deal exit from the EU - the so-called 'clean Brexit'.
But the cost of such an exit for the UK would be terrible.

Such behaviour from the Brexiteers is unbelievably irresponsible.
And it undermines May's own credibility, just as she is seeking a new mandate from the British people to strengthen her hand in the negotiations.

If the UK is to secure the smoothest possible end to the UK's membership of the EU and the best possible relationship between the UK and the EU in the future, the British team must conduct the negotiations in good faith and with good will.

The Brexiteers have demonstrated neither.

May must sack them."

< YES, fgs sack the 3 Dunces ! >

BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2017 23:22

Jeremy Cliff is The Economist’s Berlin bureau chief, who translated and analysed all the FAZ points about the disastrous dinner here:
mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552

BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2017 23:24

For German readers, here is the (long) FAZ article, basically Juncker interview / leak:
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/brexit/juncker-bei-may-das-desastroese-brexit-dinner-14993605.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_2

SwedishEdith · 01/05/2017 23:28

Another viewpoint

'Brexit Negotiations: A Greek Tragedy'

www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/04/13/brexit-negotiations-a-greek-tragedy/#59f944897c82

BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2017 23:49

Why is anyone surprised the UK and EU do not agree about Brexit?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/brexit-uk-eu-may-juncker-dinner

"Like a collision between supertankers, the clash between British and European Brexit negotiators has been a long time coming, but no less spectacular for it."
"Yet when it finally came, the revelation of these two diametrically opposed positions still had the capacity to send shockwaves throughout Europe."

"The surprise should have been that it took this long for London’s pro-Brexit political and media classes to notice something was awry.

Wednesday’s dinner was the third time May and her senior team have met senior EU leaders in recent days, to hear remarkably similar messages.

The European council president, Donald Tusk, was first sent to relay the necessary information on 6 April.

When the European parliament president, Antonio Tajani, made the same point during a visit to London on 20 April, his mobile phone rang within two hours of him leaving Downing Street, as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, urgently sought to find out if the point was sinking in.

In the end, it was only when Barnier and his boss, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, delivered the message in person that
the penny began to drop in chancelleries and newsrooms across Europe."

< yes, the EU realised it's not an act: the UK govt genuinely is this deluded & ignorant about Brexit >

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2017 23:54

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/updates-homeless-man-found-dead-12970358
Homeless man found dead outside Lloyds Bank in Birmingham city centre
Tragedy comes weeks after another homeless man died after taking Black Mamba drug

News article from today

Whilst May is wasting time on an election and fucking up Brexit, she's ignoring issues like this. Issues that are about to get a hell of a lot worse.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2017 23:55

With the low pound since the Eref, a comparatively minor example of how the UK must now pay more to attract the best from the world:

"Wimbledon will announce a steep rise in prize money for this year’s tennis champions as the tournament seeks to counter the pound’s fall in value following the Brexit vote"

< reduced profits / more expensive tickets ? or will Wimbledon be able to charge TV more ? >

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/may/01/wimbledon-increase-prize-pot-weak-pound-brexit

Cailleach1 · 02/05/2017 00:22

How to make friends and influence people. I thought there was a mechanism to shut down a member state who was being vexatious or inappropriately part of decision making which was to further their own interests after leaving the bloc.

I think now the curtains have been pulled open on the government. Before, they could say they were planning for all possible eventualities. They can still say it (and probably will), but they have been exposed. Now businesses can hear how it is probably going to be from the EU itself. The EU seem to be circling the wagons on their own currency clearance. That is fair enough. They exist primarily to benefit their members. OH was in Canary Wharf last week. Nose pressed against the vehicles in the Tesla showroom. Two banker types chatting near him. Both were leaving 'cos of Brexit. One to Frankfurt and the other didn't know where yet. That article in the FT will focus a few minds on the future. It is becoming a little more real than 'Brexit means Brexit' or 'red, white and blue Brexit'. Or 'we'll have cake and eat it'.

Junker pulling out the Canadian and Croatia's FTA's with the EU seemed to show what would have to be done. May doesn't seem to accept that her version of Brexit is going to make the UK a third country for EU benefits. They want to be outside for obligations only. Surely not paying obligations to which they were signatories as part of EU will mark the UK as defaulters. Anyone doing a trade deal with such a country would be supping with a very long spoon.

As bizarre and entertaining as all this is, the fact it is real life makes it quite depressing. Does anyone think the gov't is in any way on top of what is happening? And they are busy accusing the EU of ganging up on them for giving them what they want. Out as a 3rd country.

The homeless issue has been brewing for a while. Just anecdotally, I have seen a lot more people on the street in the past couple of years. People who have been in care as children and/or who unfortunate enough to have no support networks to fall back on are particularly vulnerable.

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2017 00:31

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/02/britains-energy-supply-is-in-jeopardy-after-brexit-warn-mps
Britain's energy supply is in jeopardy after Brexit, warn MPs
Business committee says leaving EU means exiting European atomic power treaty, which could ‘threaten power supplies’

Euroatom.

This is in addition to the lights going out in NI because they get electricity from the Republic.

It's homegrown turnips brewed over burning rubbish. But that's fine as we are going to tear up air pollution regulations.

Seriously, it's starting to look like Brexit is even worse than I thought and was predicted by project fear because we have 'Strong and Stable' leadership.

Brexit is about inequality and mobility. Instead of increasing mobility we are going to stop it and in the process increase inequality.

We are so so fucked.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2017 00:39

And even if we do get a deal

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/general-election-brexit-uk-companies-not-find-right-people-skills-recruitment-british-chambers-of-a7711926.html
Brexit deal 'won’t be worth the paper it’s written on' if British firms cannot recruit staff, BCC warns

The leading business group also called for the status of EU nationals to be protected and for an immigration system that was

The group is calling on the next government to focus on five key areas: business environment, Brexit, local growth, infrastructure and trade, to support economic growth across the UK.

It has also called for the status of EU nationals living in the UK to be protected and for an immigration system that was responsive to economic needs and to skills shortages at all levels.

I think the phrase they are looking for is 'Single Market'.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2017 00:44

Scottish poll for Daily Record found
57% to 43% that Scots would favour independence within the EU rather than Tory govt after Brexit

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-most-scots-would-10315662

Also, although 52% would never vote Tory, Labour are crashing so the Tories are hoovering up the unionist vote - currently on track to win 7 seats and the LibDems 3.

May's Scottish strategy is to win several seats, then use that as justification for hammering down Scotland and stopping IndyRef2.
That will of course cause Scottish resentment to fester over the next 5 years of Tory govt

In the medium term, independence looks quite likely:

  • Scottish Tories are heavily dependent on the older generation, with support of 48% of those aged 65+
  • Ages 18-24 are heavily SNP, much lower Tory than the average Scottish voter, but are no more likely than older people to vote Labour and only slightly more likely to vote LibDem So, the future is not with the unionist parties
BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2017 03:12

FAZ reports that May kept telling Juncker to be "patient and ambitious" HmmGrin

She didn't explain what she meant, but she apparently thought it was a good soundbite because she wouldn't stop saying itWink

< that poor bugger Juncker probably still has the earworm now >

It shows she has a wider repertoire than "Brexit means Brexit" and "strong and stable"

^>My private theory

mathanxiety · 02/05/2017 03:19

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-we-need-to-start-planning-for-a-united-ireland-1.3066881

Title of article is self explanatory.

mathanxiety · 02/05/2017 03:58

Given that in ten months, all Theresa May has managed is a poorly drafted request to invoke A50, how does she expect to achieve anything of substance in two years?

Have we been looking at this all wrong?

In light of the insight in the leaked FAZ summing up of that dinner, that TM's posturing plays well in the world of party politics, I wonder if to a large extent Brexit is an irrelevance to Theresa May and her little band of hard core revolutionaries (Nick Timothy et al)? Maybe irrelevance isn't the word. Maybe what I am after is a word to suggest that Brexit is just a means to an end, and whether hard or soft, it is the opportunity to create a tax haven, a presidential style of rule without the checks or balances of the American system, a land of golden opportunity for the rich and well connected and their American friends, unrestricted by the ECJ or the ECHR or the honest members of the House of Lords that the ruling right-wing Tory cabal is after.

TM has spent the last ten months setting the stage for the General Election that is now upon Britain - all of the speeches, all of the buzzwords, the Pavlov's whistles if you like, have been aired constantly - 'unity', 'strong and stable', 'taking control', 'international elites', 'country that works for everyone', 'grammar schools', 'immigration', 'citizens of nowhere', 'nationalists who are tearing the Union apart' (oh the irony), and all of the hard line posturing on Brexit. Brexit dropped an opportunity into the lap of the revolutionaries that they hardly dared to dream of so soon. They were completely unprepared for it but it fit right into their scheme.

The Tory Party Conference was the opening volley in this election, and it is the election that is key, not Brexit. The concept of revolution was aired there. The aim of this election - with so many helicoptered-in zealots as candidates - is to create a single party state, a Tory majority that will quickly set about completely changing the British political and socio economic landscape.

mathanxiety · 02/05/2017 04:03

BigChoc:
A journalist, ordinary mc job, has little in common with the oligarch owners of their media, who want low regulation countries they can exploit & loot.

Many journalists are just earning a living, the best way they can. Many workers have to just suck up an employer or boss they despise.

e.g. Uk media:
Torygraph - The Barclay brothers (£6.5bn tax exiles)
Express - Richard Desmond (£2.5bn, UKIP donor)
Fail - Viscount Rothermere (£1bn, owned through offshore trusts) of the "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" family
Sun & Sky - Rupert Murdoch (Australian $11.7bn, serial manipulator of governments in several countries)
"In the UK, the PM listens to what I say. In the EU, they don't"

btw, every single one of them is a fully paid up senior member of the global establishment they are pretending to attack.

'low regulation countries they can exploit & loot'
Viva la Revolution!

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 02/05/2017 07:04

Why anyone should be surprised by May's uselessness is beyond me. Her term as HomeSec was abysmal, characterised by a dogged determination to bring immigration figures to an arbitrarily defined figure by any means possible, whether fair or foul (and mostly foul), and failing even to achieve that.

And again, why should we be surprised that the Tories want to turn the UK into a crap version of the US and privatise the fuck out of everything? Because that's what they do (or, at least, have done since the mid 80s).

And yet, if I've read between the lines correctly, there are people who are refusing to vote for the 2nd place candidate who might unseat their Tory MP because Corbyn or because tuition fees. Both of which are at least in principle reversible and short term in their impact relative to Brexit.

woman12345 · 02/05/2017 07:25

there are people who are refusing to vote for the 2nd place candidate who might unseat their Tory

I agree Eeeeeowwwfftz

Those reasons not to vote for 2nd place candidate or a luxury we can't afford right now.

Up to 12 deaths caused by 'spice' in homeless last year.
archive.camdennewjournal.com/spiceinv

www.coffee4craig.com/who-are-we
Charity which helps with homeless in Manchester, Salford and Cardiff.

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